Sixers basically might have the equivalent of a top 3 pick this year.
Chances at a top 3 pick:
1st: 0.643
2nd: 0.558
3rd: 0.469
4th: 0.378
5th: 0.292
Currently, the Sixers have the 5th worst record in the NBA. Kings are at 12th worst record right now.
The 5th and 12th pick, gives the Sixers a 0.314538 shot at a top 3 pick, basically a 4.33 pick.
538 predicts the following records for teams:
Nets - 14-68
Suns - 27-55
Lakers - 27-55
Magic - 30-55
Sixers - 31-51
Timberwolves - 31-51
Pelicans - 32-50
Knicks- 32-50
Mavs - 34-48
Hornets - 35-47
Kings - 36-46
Blazers - 37-45
Bucks - 37-45
Heat- 38-44
Pistons, Pacers, and Bulls - 40-42
2/3 of the last group and Denver get into the playoffs.
If this were to end up happening, Sixers average their probability with the Timberwolves, having a 5.5 pick essentially, and Kings have 11th pick.
That gives them an overall probability of 0.2797855 at getting a top 3 pick, just slightly less than the 5th pick straight up would give them.
Of course, the 538 predicted list can't account for the trades that have happened and if a franchise has decided to tank or make a playoff push at this point.
Of the non-playoff teams:
- Nets can't be caught
- Suns are probably tanking, but Bledsoe and Booker might accidently win them games
- Lakers are full on tanking
- Magic are full on tanking
- Sixers are probably full on tanking, although they might win some with their roster
I'd wager to say that these 6 can't be caught by Sacramento, in any situation, and only the Mavs or a Timberwolves team that implodes/is really unlucky might even threaten to break into this group.
Of the remaining non-playoff teams:
- Blazers, Pelicans, Nuggets, and Bucks all seem like sure bets for a playoff push, will end up with better records than the Kings.
That pushes the Kings up to a, in my opinion, in the worst-case scenario, 10th worst record.
- Timberwolves - great star players who can go off in a game and win games, likely making playoff push
- Hornets - ????. Decent roster, not sure where they are going, and they have an all-star that probably wants playoffs but they also have 0 shot at it.
- Mavs - obviosuly tanking, by discussion about wanting to trade for picks. But their roster and coach are good about getting wins they don't deserve. Also had one of (if not) the toughest schedules in the NBA earlier in the season, which makes it seem likely that they have an easier schedule now. But they're also in the Southbest division.
- Knicks - ???? Who even knows.
- Heat - roster that has been on a streak recently, in sight of playoffs, enjoyed that win streak. Really good coach. But they should tank.
My guess is that the Hornets, Heat very likely have a better record. I think the Timberwolves end up with a better record too, especially because they should reasonably be making a playoff push right around now (a 14 year drought also would push them towards this).
Mavs and Knicks are the main wild cars. Let's say a 50/50 on Knicks vs Kings, and the Mavs I just don't know. At best though, Kings CAN get to 6th worst record.
Ok, so the likely combinations' chances at a top 3 pick (accounting for double-counts):
- Sixers at 5, Kings at 10: 0.328219
- Sixers at 4, Kings at 10: 0.412925
- Sixers at 5, Kings at 8: 0.382162
- Sixers at 4, Kings at 8: 0.465323
- Sixers at 5, Kings at 7: 0.468257
- Sixers at 4, Kings at 7: 0.492995
- Sixers at 5, Kings at 6: 0.485902
- Sixers at 4, Kings at 6: 0.565784
Again, the top 5 picks' chances at a top 3 pick:
1st: 0.643
2nd: 0.558
3rd: 0.469
4th: 0.378
5th: 0.292
At worst, they have the 5th pick, and at best, they have a better shot than the 2nd worst record. The 4/5 + 7/8 combos seem the most likely, in my opinion, so the Sixers essentially seem to have around a 3rd pick in this draft.
Their best case scenario is the 4+6 combo landing the 1st pick and the Lakers getting the 4th pick from the 3rd worst record (they have a shot at 2nd worst, if the next few weeks go right for the Lakers)
In that case, the chances of a 1st and 4th pick would be:
((0.199 + 0.063) - (0.199 * 0.063)) * (0.226)) = 0.039437678, or a 3.94% shot. Not bad.
No, I will not calculate the probability of the 1st and 4th pick for every single listed combination, while accounting for the Lakers either having the 2nd or 3rd worst record in the league.