shira
Member
LOL is there a picture of Nolan/Peter Jackson hitting a dummy.
3D tix costs more too
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NeoGAF Summer Movie US Box Office Prediction Thread 2012 |OT| [Voting ends April 30]
- Thread starter shira
- Start date
- Status
LOL is there a picture of Nolan/Peter Jackson hitting a dummy.
That is a big factor. A BoxOfficeMojo user actually calculated it out and The Dark Knight sold more tickets domestically than Avatar (obviously not worldwide) but didn't make as much due to not being in 3D despite the fact it sold more tickets. 3D factor always needs to be added into guesses like this.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I'll take that bet! 6 month avatar bet? Although If I lose my bet with Kusaragi (I won't) he will have priveledges over my avatar for 2 months after The Hobbit finishes its theatrical run. But that is only if THG outgrosses The Hobbit's domestic take, which won't happen.
Expendable.
Member
Is this just domestic or worldwide?
I might partake in this but my predictive box office skills are either wildly on target or wildly, WILDLY off it.
I may wait to see what buzz comes in for certain films nearer the time. Such as what films have been rumoured to have gone back to do multiple reshoots
to 'save' the film.
Agreed, this isn't made clear. If you're going to do this and do it 'right' it should be opening weekend, US gross, Int. Gross and then WW gross.
$800m? Making more money in North America than Avatar? SURE! Why not? But why stop at $800m? A BILLION sounds much better.
If this happens I'm going to burn down Peter Berg's house.
FYI Batman films (including TDK) have never done that much better Internationally than they have in the US.
Jackson's LOTR films on the other hand.....
I may wait to see what buzz comes in for certain films nearer the time. Such as what films have been rumoured to have gone back to do multiple reshoots
COUGHAmazingSpidermanCOUGH
Agreed, this isn't made clear. If you're going to do this and do it 'right' it should be opening weekend, US gross, Int. Gross and then WW gross.
$800m? Making more money in North America than Avatar? SURE! Why not? But why stop at $800m? A BILLION sounds much better.
If this happens I'm going to burn down Peter Berg's house.
FYI Batman films (including TDK) have never done that much better Internationally than they have in the US.
Jackson's LOTR films on the other hand.....
shira
Member
I realize there are a lot of people who come in, bitch-post, and don't participate
If everyone does that there are too many chefs but nothing is cooking.
I would be updating the OP for people who may or may not be participating.
Predicting 5 rankings with 2 variables is hard. Trust me.
My compromise - keep the OP format and add your WW# underneath.
If there is enough interest in this thread and WW# I don't mind asking a mod for a title change and reformatting the OP as such.
But as it stands now with 3 weeks to go, I'm not going to redo the entire OP for people who are not even participating.
Sorry bro, you're losing our bet.
I agree with you here though. Hobbit will destroy TDKR worldwide.
Early Predictions:
[TDKR] 160M - 480M
[AVEN] 155M - 330M
[TASM] 95M - 300M
[BRAV] 80M - 280M
[IACD] 70M - 192M
I feel pretty confident in the Top 4, but Ice Age could be replaced by a couple of films (Men in Black, Prometheus, Madagascar)
Battleship and Snow White are going to perform on the level of Cowboys and Aliens did last year. GI Joe 2 is going to open higher than the first one, but make less overall.
[TDKR] 160M - 480M
[AVEN] 155M - 330M
[TASM] 95M - 300M
[BRAV] 80M - 280M
[IACD] 70M - 192M
I feel pretty confident in the Top 4, but Ice Age could be replaced by a couple of films (Men in Black, Prometheus, Madagascar)
Battleship and Snow White are going to perform on the level of Cowboys and Aliens did last year. GI Joe 2 is going to open higher than the first one, but make less overall.
shira
Member
Sorry, it's my first thread.
It will be very easy to transition to 2012 US + WW if there is interest.
Yes I think an animated feature will do well, but it all depends on timing and oversaturation will make Brave win.
Can't speak to the America bit, but who the fuck wants to predict indies and Oscar bait in the fall?
shira
Member
Apparentlly Hobbit vs Skyfall is some sort of event.
Vs? But Skyfall is early November and Hobbit is late December.....
Cowboys & Aliens barely made 100m. I think you're selling Snow White and Battleship short. I'd expect both to at least make 150m.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Why is it in this format. It´s better if one makes multi prediction for each movie
example.
TDKR opening weekend
TDKR total domestic gross
TDKR WW gross.
No, it won´t. TDKR will make more money WW than the Hobbit.
shira
Member
The format is based on NPD - easier for Excel inputting.
I wanted to make a US Summer Box Office thread, but if there is interest would be glad to transition to a 2012 US Box Office + WW #.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36816875&postcount=58
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Honestly, i think it´s better if the predictions are for both domestic and international BO´s. It´s more interesting since domestic BO can be much more predictable than WW BO. And all participants will automatically be in the avatar betting pool.
mechashiva
Member
[TDKR] 160m - 570
[TASM] 143m - 410
[AVEN] 140 - 395
[BRAV] 95 - 240
[GIJR] 90 - 220
[TASM] 143m - 410
[AVEN] 140 - 395
[BRAV] 95 - 240
[GIJR] 90 - 220
shira
Member
shira
Member
Spike Spiegel
Member
I may try my hand at some predictions later, but for now I have to ask: am I the only one who thinks that people are overestimating TDKR's potential success just a tad? Honestly, without the media frenzy surrounding Heath Ledger's death that built TDK into an event, I just can't see this one opening as big as its predecessor, or as having the kind of legs to sustain it to a $500M+ domestic and $1B+ global.
shira
Member
I'm a bit wary as the hype machine is nowhere near TDK, but people are sheep and with more IMAX theatres I think it has weak competition too.
It won't make 500m+ domestic, but it should do MUCH better overseas. It will still make a billion, but thinking it will beat Hobbit worldwide is laughable.
shira
Member
I wonder if it will be a better TDKR experience overseas :
1. if they have the on-screen subtitles directly translate Bane
2. If they dub it, will it be clear or muddy as per Nolans orders
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
I don´t think it´s laughable at all. It´s very realistic that TDKR will have a larger WW gross than the Hobbit. We will see anyway.
No, no it isn't. You guys underestimate how much other countries love the Lord of the Rings. ROTK became the SECOND highest grossing movie of all time back in 2003 when nobody but Cameron could break a billion. And that was also before the international market exploded. Now everything breaks a billion with ease, and you think Hobbit won't do more than TDKR?
Laughable.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Still waiting for Yamato to confirm that our bet is on. Unless he got a case of the yellas!
TheKaeptain
Banned
hahaha I was just messing around. Mainly just to fuck with you.
shira
Member
I bet Sculli had his avatar picked out too.
Got to find some way for Ignus Fatus to get in here lol
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I bet Sculli had his avatar picked out too.
Got to find some way for Ignus Fatus to get in here lol
Ignus with all of his empirical assertions about claims nobody ever made.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
I'm going to feel bad, but how long as Carter-dog been in your avatar?
Discotheque
Banned
Hobbit, bomaye.
TDKR will maybe win domestic, it ends there though.
TDKR will maybe win domestic, it ends there though.
shira
Member
Does Garfield have international appeal?
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
You say that like I didn't put him in there voluntarily. Since I first saw John Carter and requested somebody to shop Woola in there.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
You say that like I didn't put him in there voluntarily. Since I first saw John Carter and requested somebody to shop Woola in there.
No, it's me wondering how long it's been there with me only just now noticing.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Ah. Well anyway, calling him Carter-dog means you haven't yet experienced the awesome that is Woola of Mars.
shira
Member
Some advice that may help..
Movies generally drop from week to week. Especially films that debut huge.
The reason for this is the subsequent weekend doesn't have the additional benefits of midnight showings, etc. Also, this is what's called "front loaded" when fans of a movie flock to theaters opening night, etc.
In other words, there's nowhere to go but down. Let's say a film debuts to 100mil, next weekend, just as a ballpark figure, start with a 50% drop. So, weekend #2, it makes 50mil, weekend #3, 25mil, etc..
Now, here's where it gets tricky. If a film is especially good it may not drop 50%, it may drop 30-40. If there's buzz on a film, that may also lessen the drop (see: The Hunger Games) as audience who were on the fence may be inclined to see what the fuss is about. But that's not the only thing you have to consider, competition from other films.
Sometimes, genre films can get crowded -- last year we had Harry Potter, Transformers, Captain America, Thor, etc. This can result in audiences waiting for reviews/buzz, or opting to wait for a DVD release. Some summer films are spectacles, and people tend to see them in theaters for the experience regardless (special effect films, superhero films, etc) so they're less immune. Of course, there's other x-factors at play, if a summer is filled with superhero films, the lone romantic comedy might take in extra business just because people want something different.
If you're interested in finding more, check out places like HSX.com which link to industry buzz and help get predictions in order. Check out sites like http://www.the-numbers.com/ and http://www.boxofficemojo.com for how films have performed in the past,so you can get an idea of how similar films dropped from weekend to weekend (keeping in mind, again, other factors like competition, etc)
Stuff to make note of.. theater counts, twitter/facebook buzz, etc.
Hope this helps some.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Speaking of worldwide, Titanic just had a huge opening day in China and is at the top of the UK box office. There may be some
True. It's been slowly changing over the last year or two as well.
It used to be that studios would focus more on domestic, since they had difficulty obtaining some international funds.. but its really taken off recently.
But yeah, all of the above is just for us/domestic.. and I'm by no means an expert at this stuff.. just stuff I've managed to piece together from observing discussions on various forums over the years.
shira
Member
Speaking of worldwide, Titanic just had a huge opening day in China and is at the top of the UK box office. There may be someto eat yet!
Is it a 3D-only Chinese re-release?
I wonder if a chinese 3D movie ticket costs $15.
That's like 1/20 the monthly Foxconn salary.
Maybe it is sheer numbers and low-low price
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked