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[shira]

[AVEN] 275 - 400

Aw yeah. I hope this guys wins.

 

[lazybones18]

Well, things have just gotten a wee bit interesting if Avengers's estimates turn out to be right on the money

 

[artist]

shira, are you going to calculate the standings on a weekly or bi-weekly basis?

 

[artist]

My reasoning why TDKR wont beat Avengers OW record. While it may be "duh", "fuck yes" or "damn ", just want to throw out some reasoning behind it since I'm bored and got some time to waste.

1. No 3D
The most obvious one. Avenger's opening weekend split was 52 in favor of 3D. Avengers just about managed to beat TDK's admissions and yet the end difference was almost 40M. Take away the inflation (~10M) and there is still a mammoth 30M difference.

2. Capacity
Avengers had some poor scheduling. I said this right on Avenger's midnight day that the theatre chains didnt schedule enough midnight shows. Turned out it was the case for the entire weekend. So possibly Avengers *could* have earned slightly more. Having said that despite the scheduling, there is still a limited amount of time on the weekend and the amount of shows you can get in. Looking at the total weekend businesses across the last 5 years, the capacity hasnt increased much. Not 30M worth.

3. Competition
Avengers had what - Think Like A Man (3rd weekend), Hunger Games (7th weekend) as the closest competitors. TDKR has Spiderman (3rd weekend), Ice Age (2nd weekend). TDKR will still have a lion's share of the screens but I doubt it will be near anywhere as it was for Avengers. Plus the competition is the same demo that fits with TDKR's audience unlike Avengers' competition.

4. Weekend Business
The highest total weekend business (non 3D) was 253M on TDK's release. With inflation that comes out to ~280M this year. TDKR needs almost a 75% share of the total weekend gross as opposed to TDK's 62% to come out with 208M+. That would mean both Ice Age and Spiderman will be grossing about 30-35M combined.

Stranger things have happened and obviously I would love to be wrong on this and eat crow but as it stands right now, I feel that Avengers' opening weekend record is safe until the next 3D tentpole. Still sticking with my original prediction of 190M for TDKR.

 

[shira]

shira, are you going to calculate the standings on a weekly or bi-weekly basis?

It's all in excel so it's no problem, but prolly just for the big releases. Too many avengers threads this week though. Just gonna clog up the offtopic.

 

[Meier]

I saw a fairly well regarded poster on HSX suggest Avengers could finish its run at over $600 million. Nutty.

 

[shira]

Results for all 19 contestants
shira
TDKR 140 500
BRAV 100 350
AVEN 115 290
TASM 100 275
PROM 80 190

Iceman
TDKR 140 310
BATT 90 210
BRAV 70 200
TASM 75 200
MAD3 60 190

twinturbo2
TDKR 120 400
TASM 115 360
AVEN 110 345
GIJR 95 330
PROM 80 275

Valhelm
AVEN 200 800
TDKR 200 600
BATT 150 400
MIB3 75 300
PROM 50 200

Cheebo
TDKR 160 420
AVEN 125 310
TASM 90 240
BRAV 65 230
PROM 60 210

Eric Hall
TDKR 160 480
AVEN 155 330
TASM 95 300
BRAV 80 280
IACD 70 192

mechashiva
TDKR 160 570
TASM 143 410
AVEN 140 395
BRAV 95 240
GIJR 90 220

vicissitudes
TDKR 165 510
AVEN 110 270
TASM 75 180
MIB3 55 170
BOUR 55 160

Meir
TDKR 178 485
AVEN 163 385
TASM 130 305
BRAV 80 275
MIB3 90 245

Biggest-Geek-Ever
TDKR 206 580
AVEN 174 455
PROM 93 300
BRAV 65 255
TASM 60 240

LetsGoKiting
AVEN 123 405
TDKR 105 360
BRAV 65 210
TASM 71 183
SNOW 67 180

RBH
TDKR 175 575
AVEN 120 375
TASM 110 350
PROM 75 250
MIB3 55 175

Expendable.
TDKR 160 525
AVEN 135 390
TASM 130 370
BRAV 65 230
PROM 60 220

BuddyJoeHooker
TDKR 175 550
TASM 140 350
AVEN 135 300
PROM 70 220
BRAV 60 200

rezuth
TDKR 130 510
AVEN 120 440
TASM 98 410
PROM 92 380
MIB3 106 340

JdFox187
TDKR 175 525
AVEN 165 415
TASM 120 300
BRAV 70 285
MIB3 70 260

Phoenician Viking
TDKR 180 500
AVEN 160 385
TASM 165 400
MIB3 90 280
PROM 65 170

artist
TDKR 190 510
AVEN 175 425
TASM 120 275
MIB3 100 255
PROM 75 225

Nesotenso
TDKR 300 500
AVEN 275 400
MIB3 100 224
TASM 150 300
PROM 100 220

 

[vicissitudes]

I think I way underestimated everything. Oh well. It seems like audiences are more and more congregating towards big, tent pole events so you have a few movies that do really well with nothing in between.

 

[shira]

I think I way underestimated everything. Oh well. It seems like audiences are more and more congregating towards big, tent pole events so you have a few movies that do really well with nothing in between.

I don't think anyone expected record numbers till the final week and he final tally.

 

[artist]

Results for all 19 contestants

Top 3 so far: Avengers OW[/U]
Valhelm 9.7
Artist 8.5
Biggest-Geek-Ever 8.4

Nice work everyone, don't despair one opening weekend does not win the contest.

Woot. Top 3 (so far) reporting in!

Me and Geek got a leg up on Valhelm though, he had Battleship opening to a 150M weekend Still anybody's game, best of luck to all.

 

[shira]

Woot. Top 3 (so far) reporting in!

Me and Geek got a leg up on Valhelm though, he had Battleship opening to a 150M weekend Still anybody's game, best of luck to all.

Tdkr is going to make or break everyone.
Yeah battlesunk

 

[Meier]

Tracking for MIB3 is apparently incredibly soft. Some predictions of as low as 60 million for the 4-day weekend. Yikes!

 

[artist]

Tracking for MIB3 is apparently incredibly soft. Some predictions of as low as 60 million for the 4-day weekend. Yikes!

Hmm, never seen anyone predicting 60M for the 4 day weekend for MIB3, the range I saw was 70-90 and it obviously came in at the lower end of that range.

Looks like RBH's final total and JdFox's opening weekend number for MIB3 are the real winners.

 

[artist]

FWIW, early tracking numbers for a few movies

Snow White and the Huntsman - mid 60s
Piranha 3DD - almost 10
Rock of Ages - mid 30s
The Amazing Spider-Man - 110-120
The Dark Knight Rises - mid 180s

 

[shira]

RBH nice job calling $55 million for MIB3 OW

Everyone else overestimated Battleship and MIB3

edit vicissitudes too

 

[kswiston]

FWIW, early tracking numbers for a few movies

Snow White and the Huntsman - mid 60s
Piranha 3DD - almost 10
Rock of Ages - mid 30s
The Amazing Spider-Man - 110-120
The Dark Knight Rises - mid 180s

I am not a huge fan of advanced tracking any more than 2-3 weeks ahead of a movie's release. Advanced tracking has been wrong on almost every big release this year.

 

[shira]

I am not a huge fan of advanced tracking any more than 2-3 weeks ahead of a movie's release. Advanced tracking has been wrong on almost every big release this year.

I think it is yet another reason why they are releasing overseas first.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

What's the tracking like for Prometheus?

 

[shira]

What's the tracking like for Prometheus?

60/250/450

 

[kswiston]

I think it is yet another reason why they are releasing overseas first.

I think that has more to do with Piracy. Especially in places like Russia and China where they are encouraging the expanding box office markets.

My thing with tracking is that it hasn't been any more accurate than the guesses of random GAFers or people on the Box Office forum (excluding posters who clearly do not understand the box office business) for these bigger releases.

When tracking can be off 20-40% a week before a movie releases (Avengers, Hunger Games, Battleship, even MIB3 to a lesser extent), what is the point at looking at tracking numbers for a film that is 6-8 weeks away?

 

[shira]

I think that has more to do with Piracy. Especially in places like Russia and China where they are encouraging the expanding box office markets.

My thing with tracking is that it hasn't been any more accurate than the guesses of random GAFers or people on the Box Office forum (excluding posters who clearly do not understand the box office business) for these bigger releases.

When tracking can be off 20-40% a week before a movie releases (Avengers, Hunger Games, Battleship, even MIB3 to a lesser extent), what is the point at looking at tracking numbers for a film that is 6-8 weeks away?

They are based on social media presence and mind share. So movies get moved and advertising is adjusted accordingly. Studios also have internal estimates that they want to hit.

I'm sure since it is sites like boxofficemojo or thr.com doing these polls, it gets them webclicks. So even if it is non-scientific it is something to publish.

 

[artist]

RBH nice job calling $55 million for MIB3 OW

Everyone else overestimated Battleship and MIB3

Yeah I overestimated MIB3

Anyway, will RBH get points as the final tally for MIB3 came under 55M?

My thing with tracking is that it hasn't been any more accurate than the guesses of random GAFers or people on the Box Office forum (excluding posters who clearly do not understand the box office business) for these bigger releases.

When tracking can be off 20-40% a week before a movie releases (Avengers, Hunger Games, Battleship, even MIB3 to a lesser extent), what is the point at looking at tracking numbers for a film that is 6-8 weeks away?

I get your complaint, regardless its still a number. How much you put stock into it is another thing entirely.

 

[artist]

The two big winners this week.

Iceman
MAD3 60 190

Valhelm
PROM 50 200

 

[RBH]

RBH
TDKR 175 575
AVEN 120 375
TASM 110 350
PROM 75 250
MIB3 55 175

Right on the money for MIB 3 and pretty good for TDKR's opening weekend, but I did awful otherwise. :lol

 

[Expendable.]

Why not:

[TDKR] 160M - 525M
[BRAV] 65M - 230M

Wow, I was right on the money for these two. Domestic will probably not reach that for TDKR though.

 

[artist]

shira needs to announce the winners.

I think

Spoiler

Biggest-Geek-Ever

won.