Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2015 Season Preview
As I mentioned last night, last year's trainwreck was so massive and so epic that my anticipation for this coming football season is rather low. Much as I'd like to be optimistic for my team, that has pretty much never worked out for me, and after seven straight years of missing the playoffs and losing at least 12 games 4 out of the last 6 seasons...I just don't have it in me. For reference:
This was how I went into the 2014 season.
This is how I came out.
So without further ado, here are some thoughts on the offensive and defensive units.
OFFENSE
Last year our offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford ended up missing the season with heart issues, so the QB coach Marcus Arroyo had to step in on very short notice. Needless to say, it did not go well. Arroyo was clearly in way over his head and (understandably, frankly) was not at all ready to take on that responsibility, as the offense struggled immensely, finishing 30th in yards and 29th in points. Anyway, Tedford decided that going to the CFL would be easier on his heart and generally a more pleasant experience for him, so now we have former Falcons and Jaguars OC Dirk Koetter. He's not exactly the guy I would have picked, but hey, he has experience and no (known) major health issues, so there's that.
Quarterback
The team's biggest move of the offseason was drafting former Florida State QB Jameis Winston first overall in the draft. Winston won a Heisman and a national championship at FSU, and he likes crab legs and eatin' dat pussy. Also he might be a rapist. He's already been given the starting QB job in training camp, so at least for now there won't be a QB controversy. As a rookie, expect him to make his fair share of mistakes. He has reportedly been really struggling with blitzes in training camp, throwing a lot of interceptions on them. I predict at least 16 INTs from him this year assuming he plays every game. The bright side is that though I do expect some growing pains, I also believe in his abilities enough to say that he'll probably give us better QB play than we had last year between Josh McCown, who may as well have been a rookie last year considering how shook and clueless he looked, and Mike Glennon, who was unimpressive last season, albeit in poor circumstances. He will be able to make plays down the field, and though his maturity and decision making are in question, his work ethic and football IQ aren't. Best projection I can give is major struggles early, and slowly but surely settling in as the season goes on.
Runningbacks
Doug Martin has reportedly been very impressive during camp. He'll need to be if he wants to keep the starting RB job and remain a part of this team's plans long term. One guy to keep an eye on will be second-year RB Charles Sims, who missed most of last year with injury. However, with his prominence catching balls out of the backfield and a rookie QB, I expect him to be a staple of the offense this year. As far as the depth chart goes, Bobby Rainey looks to be the odd man out right now and appears likely to be cut if he doesn't turn things around soon. When I look as this unit, I like them, but then again I called this the deepest unit on offense last season and they ended up finishing 29th in rushing yards last season (though a major part of that was our dismal offensive line, more on them in a moment), so I'm keeping my expectations in check.
Offensive line
Garbage last year, and I can't say I particularly expect them to be any different this year. I fully expect that Jameis Winston's struggles will be highly exacerbated by our poor line. The good news is that second round D-III rookie guard Ali Marpet has seemed like every bit the physical freak of nature he was back in college. He should at least be fun to watch, though it won't be near enough to make this line decent.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
If nothing else, Winston will have big targets to throw to. Though his presence hasn't translated to wins, Vincent Jackson has had solid numbers since joining the Bucs in 2012 (though only 2 TDs last year; I expect more this year). And Mike Evans put up a fantastic rookie season last year despite our awful QB play, and was in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year before Odell Beckham Jr. got healthy and went absolute nuts. I also expect TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins to be a bigger part of our offense this yearas a big TE target for Winston. Hopefully one of Robert Herron, Kenny Bell, or Kaelin Clay can emerge as a 3rd WR deep threat for the team as well.
DEFENSE
After hiring supposed defensive coach Lovie Smith and DC Leslie Frazier last offseason, the Bucs defense was a big disappointment, finishing 25th in both PPG and YPG. That said, they generally improved as the year went on (though it would be impossible to get lower than the Thursday Night Massacre in Atlanta, of which we will never speak again). The problem here is that I think we just don't have the proper personnel to run Smith's cover 2 system, and I think unless some major adjustments are made, this defense won't be nearly as good as we'll need them to be.
Defensive Line
Up the middle we have a legit top 5 d-lineman in the game in Gerald McCoy, who got his major payday last season. After that though, it's...iffy. Jacquies Smith ended up being a bit of a pleasant surprise last year, but in Lovie's system, we're gonna need a lot more than that. William Gholston is a guy they're going to need a lot from to generate pass rush, but he's still a question mark. In the cover 2, the defensive line is required to get consistent pressure on the QB, and I just don't think we have the crew to do that.
Linebackers
Lavonte David is still a fucking stud, and I desperately hope they can get him signed long-term. FA acquisition Bruce Carter should be an improvement over Mason Foster at ILB, but seeing how poorly FA signings have worked out for us the last few years, I'm a tad concerned about that. Expect to see a good amount of rookie Kwon Alexander as well. Overall, as of right now, this core is probably the strength of the Bucs defense.
Secondary
Here's where it gets kinda brutal. Alterraun Verner actually played pretty well for us last year as our #1 CB. Johnthan Banks has the #2 CB spot pretty much locked up sorta by default. But our safeties are just...it looks quite bad. The Bucs traded Mark Barron during the season last year and cut Dashon Goldson at the end of the season. And then did pretty much nothing to address the position. Consider that Chris Conte is probably the #1 safety on this team right now. It's that bad. Expect opposing QBs to beat us deep regularly, especially down the middle.
OVERALL
6-10 tops. I just see too many holes, and with the inevitable growing pains of a rookie QB and a coach in Lovie Smith who isn't nearly good enough to elevate us significantly, I just don't see a scenario where we're in any sort of contention. Winston's development is pretty much the only major reason to pay attention to the Bucs this year,