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[damisa]

A lot more then $40 on premium? Counting money they spend to honor the warranties? Don't think so.

Losing $100 buck right now if the sold Core at 199 is optimistic, even considering profits from memory card.

You mentioned high attach rate. You realize, of course, that people who buy premium at $400 might have a slightly different attach rate that people who would buy a core at 199.

Finally, Core at 199 will pretty much mean entering into price war with Nintendo. I see exactly zero evidence right now that MS is anxious for this fight - competing against a 179 Wii without Wii sports with Nintendo ramping up the production and dropping the price.

Now comes the 65mm. Are you saying in will reduce the cost of procucing the core by over $100? Do you have a source for that? How much does the stuff excluding the processors cost: you know RAM, drive, power unit, motherboard?

PS2 dropped $100 in 18 months, why can't the 360 do the same? What's in the 360 that would make it more expensive than the PS2 at relative time periods? Remember technology has been getting cheaper over time. A PC is much cheaper now than in 2001/2002. The 360 is also selling more software and has more expensive accessories to help the bottom line. Honestly, I think there's at least a 75% chance MS will drop the core to $200 this year (and the premium to $300).

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

To be honest, it wasn't the price that turned me against Sony, it was the arrogance. The shit they said about how customers would get a "second job" to get a PS3. I knew right then and there that they had lost their ****ing marbles.

It's like hearing Paris Hilton call people poor. I'm like, you ignorant ****s. WTF? I gave you 5 years of my life and this is how you repay me? We shared so much.

It's telling when hardcore gamers on this board are waiting to take the plunge. How expensive is that thing? Way too expensive. They price themselves out of the market and mindshare. Nobody talks about the PS3. Not at family functions. Everybody shifts towards the 360.

 

[Kabuki Waq]

I think we are forgetting one major thing this sales chart proves.

Sega actually made a good financial decision for once when they made VF5 multiplatform :O

 

[TheKingsCrown]

40 pages? 0_0

Things have certainly become interesting. Too early to say what is in thread title, but welcome to the age of the PSWii60, where the industry is forced to diverge significantly from its historical trend. It will be interesting to look back on the types of games we are about to get.

 

[plagiarize]

It's glorious. Because it's all so scripted. Same shit we heard years ago, we are see now. Kabuki...I don't know. He seemed like a level headed guy. Now this. But then again, you never know what'll really piss people off (all friend codes and no universal list make skinny something something). This thread is destined for greatness and a lock and a few bans. Like ylvis. You better hope the leak is true. But I see a ban a coming.

i think it's because these people want a particular outcome. as the logical basis for arguing that that is a likely outcome wears away, people go from rationally arguing that the ps3 may be able to over come it's problems to raving about it when all the numbers and trends right now are pointing in the opposite direction.

it wasn't as irrational before this months numbers, but they still *want* the same outcome, or at least, to believe in the same outcome whatever the figures say.

 

[Merovingian]

PS2 dropped $100 in 18 months, why can't the 360 do the same? What's in the 360 that would make it more expensive than the PS2 at relative time periods? Remember technology has been getting cheaper over time. A PC is much cheaper now than in 2001/2002. The 360 is also selling more software and has more expensive accessories to help the bottom line. Honestly, I think there's at least a 75% chance MS will drop the core to $200 this year (and the premium to $300).

Or they Could get the Premium down to 300$ and then Sku up to 350/400%

I think MS really needs to drop the price, as someone as said before, the games coming out this year for the 360 are a pretty big deal with the fall being an amazing climax with GTA and Halo 3. They need to drop the price in the fall or before the fall, if they do it, they will be firing all the huge guns this fall and IMO they have the best of chances to surprass the Wii.

As for the PS3, it's so complicated, Sony is in a mess financially, but Blu Ray is taking off...i dunno. Sony has said (i think) that coming out on top doesn't matter for them this time around, so i don't know man.

 

[plagiarize]

40 pages? 0_0

Things have certainly become interesting. Too early to say what is in thread title, but welcome to the age of the PSWii60, where the industry is forced to diverge significantly from its historical trend. It will be interesting to look back on the types of games we are about to get.

it's too early to say we're doomed by global warming, but it isn't too early to say that unless something very major happens, and things continue as is, that we're doomed.

sony have to act and act drastically. if they don't, the ps3 is doomed to third place.

 

[Neomoto]

Nintendo DS 485,000
Wii 335,000
PlayStation 2 295,000
Xbox 360 228,000
PlayStation Portable 176,000
Game Boy Advance 136,000
PlayStation 3 127,000
GameCube 24,000
Xbox 480

February totals for Japan + US + Canada:
Wii 660k
360 259k
PS3 219k

Man... Wii sales are getting almost ridiculous.. It isn't even actually available in stores!

Oh, and if you count the totals for Japan+US+Canada for the month February Nintendo Wii has a 58% market share, Incredible. And if you don't find that fair because x360 sells like shit in Japan (which is their problem because ww numbers count but whatever) and just take the numbers of US in february than the Wii has 48.5% marketshare. Really amazing and that's with massive shortages.

Awesome PS2 sales, X360 doing fine and DS sales are just sick.. ~ 500k in one month?? Just think what'll happen when Pokemon Pearl / Diamond hit next month :O

PSP hardware sales are ok, but software sales continue to be shit.
But what is truly shit are the sales of PS3. My god, 220k for an entire month from Japan, US and Canada combined is all it could do? Software sales seem to be bad too. Keep this up and it'll make PSP actually look GOOD, and that's saying something.

360 CRACKDOWN 427K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 371K
NDS DIDDY KONG RACING 262K
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS 130K
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR 130K
WII WARIOWARE: SMOOTH MOVES 109K

Awesome. Pretty funny that WII PLAY is actually HIGHER than the total number of Wii's sold during the month (yes it is obvious why, but still funny). I wonder how high this title will end up wordwide when all things are said and done.

What is the Zelda LTD worldwide ? (Europe is apporx, I know it)

US ~ 1.250.000 (if the numbers above are indeed correct)
Japan ~ 400.000
Europe ~ ???

I think it easily surpassed 2 million. Not including GC version (which also sold very good iirc)

 

[plagiarize]

Or they Could get the Premium down to 300$ and then Sku up to 350/400%

I think MS really needs to drop the price, as someone as said before, the games coming out this year for the 360 are a pretty big deal with the fall being an amazing climax with GTA and Halo 3. They need to drop the price in the fall or before the fall, if they do it, they will be firing all the huge guns this fall and IMO they have the best of chances to surprass the Wii.

As for the PS3, it's so complicated, Sony is in a mess financially, but Blu Ray is taking off...i dunno. Sony has said (i think) that coming out on top doesn't matter for them this time around, so i don't know man.

well, that's going to depend on competition.

me i wouldn't drop the price until after the big games have launched to get as many as possible to bite at $400 before i drop it... but obviously if nintendo or sony are snapping at my heals, then i would probably drop the price at the same time hoping for a knock out combo.

 

[fanduck]

Since this thread is still going, I'll go ahead and say what I think about Sony.

I think the PS2 is friggin killing the PS3! God of War is coming out in March, and if you don't already own a PS2, and desperately want to play this game, what are you more likely to do:
Buy a PS2 at $120ish?
Buy a PS3 at $500-$600?

And the fact of the matter is, GOW is the biggest Sony game so far this year! If the PS3 were cheaper, I could see people just buying a PS3 and playing GOW on it. But as expensive as it is, people are just buying a PS2 instead (which is apparent by how well it is selling).

Anyway, Sony needs to either drop the price of PS3 (not gonna happen) or stop producing PS2's, simple as that!

 

[Pureauthor]

Since this thread is still going, I'll go ahead and say what I think about Sony.

I think the PS2 is friggin killing the PS3! God of War is coming out in March, and if you don't already own a PS2, and desperately want to play this game, what are you more likely to do:
Buy a PS2 at $120ish?
Buy a PS3 at $500-$600?

And the fact of the matter is, GOW is the biggest Sony game so far this year! If the PS3 were cheaper, I could see people just buying a PS3 and playing GOW on it. But as expensive as it is, people are just buying a PS2 instead (which is apparent by how well it is selling).

Anyway, Sony needs to either drop the price of PS3 (not gonna happen) or stop producing PS2's, simple as that!

Nah. The people buying PS2s now aren't the same people who would buy a PS3, regardless.

The console these people would most likely go to would be the DS, or maybe the Wii after a price drop.

 

[marc^o^]

It's looking bad for PS3 right now, and it won't likely get better by the end of the year. Simply put, PS3 fall line up can't compete with the kind of hype/sales Halo3, Mario Galaxy and Smash Bro will have. So yeah, I don't see them reverse the trend this year. Even at 500$, the machine won't sell to the mass market. PS3 should be selling more than its competitors in 2009 only.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

To be honest, it wasn't the price that turned me against Sony, it was the arrogance. The shit they said about how customers would get a "second job" to get a PS3. I knew right then and there that they had lost their ****ing marbles.

See for me it was the price, I'm sorry but 600 bucks for a video game console that will be replaced in 5 - 6 years time at best is ****ing nuts.

 

[plagiarize]

Nah. The people buying PS2s now aren't the same people who would buy a PS3, regardless.

The console these people would most likely go to would be the DS, or maybe the Wii after a price drop.

what they should have at least done was what Nintendo did with zelda. heck they should have done what was done with super paper mario.

i have *never* understood why God of War 2 isn't a PS3 game.

 

[jetjevons]

See for me it was the price, I'm sorry but 600 bucks for a video game console that will be replaced in 5 - 6 years time at best is ****ing nuts.

Apparently you're not the only one.

 

[jmdajr]

I remember when I thought SONY was so awesome back in the PSONE days....

...giving Nintendo a kick in the ass for getting greedy and complacent.

how the tables have turned.

 

[Dr_Cogent]

I remember when I thought SONY was so awesome back in the PSONE days....

...giving Nintendo a kick in the ass for getting greedy and complacent.

how the tables have turned.

This sort of thing happens in all industries as well. Look at 3Dfx. They thought they were on top of the world, and then it all came crashing down around them. No one should ever get complacent or think that brand is going to be their prime mover.

 

[magiustra]

Fun: for lots of people, the much-decried waggling is, in all it's 'kiddy gayness,' fun. For me, it harkens back to the days when I went outside and shot Commies with my toy gun. I didn't go out and pretend to press buttons; I went out and waggled. I'm sure some of you have allowed your soul to die a little bit in your hurried rush to adulthood (missing the point entirely), but lots of people have not. For those of us who grew up but kept a bit of our childish spirit, what the Wii does, in part, brings us back to those days and lets us enjoy that feeling again. I sound like the worst of Nintendo fanboys here, but I can't help the fact that, in my case at least, it's true. And it's easily Nintendo's biggest victory.

I agree
A friend of mine, in a chapter of a book about Super Mario and his world(s), talks about the same thing.
Here you can find the cover of this book: http://www.videoludica.com/catalogue.php?book=14&lang=en

 

[DSN2K]

for those that are saying Nintendo wont be top again because of the 360 remember that overall they have nearly sold what a million pieces of Hardware in Febuary!! thats crazy and thats not even including the Wii remotes....

the success Nintendo and MS are currently having shows that there is no need to be concerned that the quality of games will drop, market is big enough for high end HD stuff and low end low budget fun innovative gaming.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

it doesn't, really. even if the Ps3 only sells 20 million units (gamecube levels) that's still a massive advantage for blu-ray's installed base. Look what it's doing to HD-DVD with only 1.5 million units sold.

Heh. To look at it another way, PS3's early head start for Blu-ray is going to harm HD-DVD in the same way that X360/Wii's early head start is going to harm PS3.

Xbox 480 x $130 = $0.06M

Did they actually drop the price to $130 at some point?

poor Odama

I remember its sales, and poor Odama indeed. However, that's Adama.

The PS2 style domination where one company hold more market share than the other two combined is not happening again.

This time? Doesn't look that way, but it's possible it will happen again.

Why are so many people acting surprised in this thread ? I know damn well most people had to figure pretty close to actual numbers.

You can look at the prediction thread and see that PS3 so low and DS so high weren't widely expected.

crackdown did a whopping ±430k and the numbers are far lower than last month's. obviously, february numbers are always lower than january's numbers but i expected to see a bump because of crackdown.

From a 5-week January bumped by Lost Planet to a 4-week February bumped by Crackdown, things stayed fairly even.

...and why do you say that?

Like the Wii, you'd have to buy certain components separately. That is inline with previous console generations. Nintendo is the one ripping you off this time.

It all depends on how you look at it. Is Nintendo ripping people off by not having more powerful processors in their $250 machine? Is Microsoft ripping people off by not including any rewritable space/wifi/waggle/wireless controller in their $300 machine?

In this case, however, it has a negative impact on gamers. They skimped on the hardware and it will directly effect the games released for the machine. It seems a lot of people just don't care, though. Positive for Nintendo, negative for us.

Being in more gamers' hands due to the price and relative manufacturing ease, however, will positively affect the games released for the machine.

Ah, but Sony can and IS working on such games. Many of my favorite quirky, unique titles of last generation were products of SCE.

Well they're not going to bail to Wii due to sales, so what are you worried about?

How is it even possible to contribute something NEW and FRESH in a thread that is over 30 pages long?

Rerelease your post with waggle controls and a new name? </Ubi>

 

[Link]

Whoa, whoa, whoa...... dark10x enjoyed SotC?! Is.... is that possible?

 

[Pureauthor]

I can't help but imagine it's like watching your expensive car get sent off a cliff - but your worst enemy is in there.

 

[Haunted]

I so so so much agree with what skinnyrattler, Eteric Rice and Joshua say. One wavelength, guys.

 

[Ash Sparrow]

I really can't believe there were gaffers who said that PS3 would sell 400,000 units a month, and yet i remember reading it

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

This sort of thing happens in all industries as well. Look at 3Dfx. They thought they were on top of the world, and then it all came crashing down around them. No one should ever get complacent or think that brand is going to be their prime mover.

The trick is how much change is too much change. You dance with the chick you brought, right? You can go too far. Look at the PS3. Not anywhere near the PS1. It's like a totally different machine. Well, not really but they didn't understand what made them successful. They kicked Nintendo's ass because The Big N thought cartridges were better. For load time, yup but not for price. Developers helped win that generation. Devs realized they could make more money by just making PS1 games. You make more money because it cost a buck to print a CD and 10 dollars to make a cartridges. Now you could adapt to the market and sell cheap CD based games. And when you hit a critical mass, you could sell for $20 and just keep growing your market. You could realize great sound and CG. And Sony was bending over backwards to get exclusives.

But you probably need to get your butt whupped to realize what you need to do. It sucks to have so many different consoles to choose from on a limited budget because you can't be sure of what to get. But competition helps us from getting too stagnant. CDs are better than cartridges. Actual sound chips on board are better. Two areas Nintendo used to suck in nor have any vision. But, $600 of technology isn't the entire answer either. New and unnecessary media formats is too much. And games have been languishing in gameplay. We've been playing the same games for the last 2 generations. We need a new controller. And more casuals help, as Sony found out in the latter stages of it's previous consoles. This gen was shaping up to be more of the same. It's not good for the industry, so I'm glad Nintendo is giving them a kick in the pants. 3 console future.

 

[Merovingian]

for those that are saying Nintendo wont be top again because of the 360 remember that overall they have nearly sold what a million pieces of Hardware in Febuary!! thats crazy and thats not even including the Wii remotes....

the success Nintendo and MS are currently having shows that there is no need to be concerned that the quality of games will drop, market is big enough for high end HD stuff and low end low budget fun innovative gaming.

I hope so.

 

[Akira]

I had to look at it for a few seconds, then it hit me. :lol

 

[Kabuki Waq]

Whoa, whoa, whoa...... dark10x enjoyed SotC?! Is.... is that possible?

he makes framerate exceptions for some games depending on the sytem

 

[plagiarize]

Whoa, whoa, whoa...... dark10x enjoyed SotC?! Is.... is that possible?

yep. he did.

i find it ironic because frame rate doesn't usually bother me, and it stopped me enjoying SotC.

 

[joetachi]

This thread has went to hell, multiple times. Heck, its getting worse by the page.

 

[Haunted]

I really can't believe there were gaffers who said that PS3 would sell 400,000 units a month, and yet i remember reading it

:lol :lol That .gif is hilarious.

 

[maynerd]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the Wii is no longer supply constrained and they have product on shelves all the time.

 

[vasuba]

seriously everyone keeps missing the fun part of this

1 Wii = 2 Gamecubes ducttaped together. So in reality, the Gamecube was the #1 selling console in February with 694,000 units sold! thats like the largest non holiday period sales ever for a console

 

[tribal24]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the Wii is no longer supply constrained and they have product on shelves all the time.

yeah i wanna see this aswell would it sell less? or just sell lol cant wait to see

 

[Resident Guru]

See for me it was the price, I'm sorry but 600 bucks for a video game console that will be replaced in 5 - 6 years time at best is ****ing nuts.

This logic kind of depends on one's financial situation. $600 is about 3 days of work for me, and I live in an area with a very low cost of living. For others it might be more than a couple of weeks worth of pay.

 

[Wiitard]

Ummm, you might consider reading comprehension FTW. I said on a bill of materials basis. The November iSupply breakdown had the premium at $323 and the core at $280. Given 8 months of cost reductions and the switch to 65nm, $230 and $275 or less is not unreasonable.

Of course, $250 and $350 bundles with Gears and Viva Pinata are also pretty hot.

Actually, I have not seen this newer iSupply. This is a really serious decrease in costs from the previous one. Now I can see that there is a possibility of 200 Core in 08. Maybe even in early 08. But absolutely no way in 07 - losing all the money they would make on people who would be buying 360 for Halo and GTA anyway is just not smart. Don't forget that cost cutting goes both ways - it increases the profits from the hardware sold at the old price too.



Now one thing to consider about the core is that right now it's pretty much a bullet point - nobody is actually buying them. So based on this iSupply figures, right now MS makes something like $50 bucks on each premium sold (retailers cut, warranty) while probably loses something like $10 bucks on each core. Cuting prices of the core to 200 and premium to 300 hundred this year would still result in a loss of $50-90 on every console.

Bottom line - there would be some 7 million consoles on which they would make at the very least $100 less. That is 700 million difference. The additional consoles they sell - those would be at least another 300 million of losses given that they would be skewed towards the cheaper core. So I'm revising my estimates of what it would cost to cut the prices to 1 billion in 07.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

This logic kind of depends on one's financial situation. $600 is about 3 days of work for me, and I live in an area with a very low cost of living. For others it might be more than a couple of weeks worth of pay.

I continue to try and reason with people: it's not entirely the absolute price. It's also in relation to the competitors. And don't let anybody fool you. They are all videogame consoles to the general consumer. They are direct competitors. They may attract different people/gamers. But they are just trying to figure out which population can get them to #1 the quickest.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

seriously everyone keeps missing the fun part of this

1 Wii = 2 Gamecubes ducttaped together. So in reality, the Gamecube was the #1 selling console in February with 694,000 units sold! thats like the largest non holiday period sales ever for a console

I like your thinking and I desperately hope you have a newsletter I could subscribe to.

 

[speculawyer]

I can't help but imagine it's like watching your expensive car get sent off a cliff - but your worst enemy is in there.

Ironically, someone posted this earlier in the thread:

 

[speculawyer]

Here is the good news for Sony:

 

[HokieJoe]

I don't think it's going to dry up, I was replying to Merovingian's fear of Wii becoming the standard. SW is selling very well on 360 so support will continue.

Wii is selling because of new controls, to the extent if Wii didn't have motion controls it would be selling less than PS3. Its price is important, but isn't the most important factor. Wii is also supply constrained, to the extent people are still lined-up to buy one in February, 3 months after launch, and still went home empty handed even though Nintendo shipped over 300k to retail.

PS3 and 360 sales will definitely increase when they have a price drop, what's in question is will they be able to grab the mainstream if Wii continues to sell as well as it is doing, and motion controllers and simple, fun gaming, become more and more important factors.

Ahh, understand.

<<cool>>

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

seriously everyone keeps missing the fun part of this

1 Wii = 2 Gamecubes ducttaped together. So in reality, the Gamecube was the #1 selling console in February with 694,000 units sold! thats like the largest non holiday period sales ever for a console

There's still JoshuaJSlone2002 inside me, watching Xbox outdo GameCube from month to month, willing to go along with this.

 

[dark10x]

Whoa, whoa, whoa...... dark10x enjoyed SotC?! Is.... is that possible?

Motion blur.

Of course, I also played it on a 13" TV with headphones. :\

Exceptions have nothing to do with system and everything to do with content. If a game is good enough, I can deal with framerate issues. That doesn't mean they don't drive me crazy, though...

 

[Fëanor]

Motion blur.

Of course, I also played it on a 13" TV with headphones. :\

Why in such a small tv?

 

[Tieno]

Motion blur.

Of course, I also played it on a 13" TV with headphones. :\

Exceptions have nothing to do with system and everything to do with content. If a game is good enough, I can deal with framerate issues. That doesn't mean they don't drive me crazy, though...

Wow, you of all people would stoop that low?

 

[meltpotato]

Of course, I also played it on a 13" TV with headphones. :\

WHAT THE ****

 

[Version 3.0]

I haven't posted in this crazy thread up till now, but here's my take after lurking through the whole thing:

1. People crying over the death of hardcore gaming are just Sony fanboys in disguise. Gaming isn't dying here, it's just one console in trouble. Take a look at the software thread, hardcore (or traditional, if you prefer) games are doing incredibly well.

2. There's little talk of the DS insanity. I guess it's just because of Japan, but this level of success in the US is new.

3. Sony's tough spot. It is the price. I see some people saying otherwise, and sure, there are other factors, but none of them compares to the price barrier. Unfortunately for Sony, any price drop they make can be countered. But they still need to drop it to even have a chance. Drop it, and then use their spinning skills to explain why it's not desperation, but a good thing for them as well as everyone else.

4. Merovingian's claim that changing the way you play a game doesn't change the gameplay. Unreal. That made my eyes pop more than the sales numbers. :lol

 

[Rancid Mildew]

I've spent a lot of money on hifi and HD equipment so I wasn't pleased when I learned Nintendo would be limiting the Wii to 480p. That said, I am ultimately happy that they did this. If they went down the path of Sony, we would have another technological arms race on our hands and eventually, the market would shrink as significant budget buyers get priced out. A shrinking market means less games. What Nintendo is doing is healthy for the entire industry. People always say Nintendo rips us off by making profit and Nintendo is taking grave steps backwards but that doesn't matter in the end. The Wii is a system that makes the least impact on a consumer's pocketbook and is a very fun console. I had to buy a new 480p projector to save my eyes but it's fun factor is quite excellent.

I don't think the fears that Nintendo is killing technology are founded in reality. It's just slowing it down. I never understood why new research needs to be done to create new hardware so gamers are put on a new cutting edge. It's perfectly acceptable to use off the shelf parts to make a system in my opinion. These exponential leaps in technology for the explicit purpose of gaming are so wasteful of resources. Technology will advance without the console market anyways.

In the end, all the flaming and bashing of Nintendo means nothing. The market disagrees and is moving on to a more evolutionary scheme of technology. I think it will be better for everyone.

 

[Jokeropia]

Amazing. I remember how all the haters were convinced that Wii would bomb as soon as Christmas was over (if not before) and that there was no way the DS strategy could work on the stationary market etc etc. Not only is the complete opposite taking place, but the PS3 also turned out to be the real bomb. Such a total reversal, my inner fanboy can't help but to enjoy it.

Is it really that suprising? PS3 had 1 awful game come out in 2 months of Jan/Feb and thats it. It should be the worst month for PS3.

March and April on the other hand... 15 new games, blockbuster movie... now if they dont manage to get it up in March and April, then there is an problem...

PS2 sales on the other hand... Both hardware and software is kicking arse...

For PS3, looking at attach rates, there are at least 100,000 PS3's purchased as BD players only.

If you expected this to happen, why did you predict 282k for PS3?

Sorry if you are to sensitive to read me write what most people that aren't nintendo fans think, those games you just mentioned...are games for kids. Now i'm not saying games for kids can't be enjoyed by grown ups, i can go see Cars or Bambi with my sister, and i will enjoy the movie. However it doesn't take away the fact that it is meant for kids.

NINTENDO'S GAMES AREN'T MEANT FOR KIDS, THEY'RE MEANT FOR EVERYONE. Only in the eyes of the immature does "not rated R" equal "meant for kids".

 

[Wiitard]

PS3 and 360 sales will definitely increase when they have a price drop, what's in question is will they be able to grab the mainstream if Wii continues to sell as well as it is doing

They might get some mainstream acceptance judging by Wii vs. 360+PS3 numbers in US and UK. But the big question is what do PS2 numbers mean. If you count Wii+PS2 as the anti-HD camp, then it looks much, much bleaker.

Should you count PS2 numbers? I would say yes, with possible adjustment for people buying a console to replace older systems, a console for a second TV and etc.