Quinton McLeod
Banned
But we can't work with "maybes". It's either we're very sure or we're not. Right now, we're just not sure.
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NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
But we can't work with "maybes". It's either we're very sure or we're not. Right now, we're just not sure.
shinra-bansho
Member
This "little information" doesn't need to predict doom and gloom. It already provides hindsight to doom and gloom that already happened over the a five week period up to February 2nd.
Discourse now centres on whether and how Nintendo can lift themselves out of doom and gloom proceeding forward.
It doesn't get much doom and gloomier than ~10K a week, besides dead products and discontinuation.
Considering they may have been producing with intent to shift 5.5M units initially, they won't meet their new fiscal target of 4M with these sales and they may not even need to refill supply very much if at all in some regions even in missing that new target - temporarily halting production actually could come into play.
Trent Strong
Banned
And what do the Vita and the Wii U have in common? Touch screens. Touch and gaming just don't belong together. Never have, never will.
You're neglecting to mention the uninspiring game libraries and lack of meaningful innovation. There's nothing you can do on the wii u or the vita that you can't do to some degree on consoles most people already own.
So, the rumored touch pad on PS4 controller is really bad idea?
pieatorium
Member
Think of how successful the DS could have been without one.
As is the DS line and the App Store.
CadetMahoney
Member
Two failed systems with the Vita and Wii U in the same gen time period. Just shows how much the market is changing and how lack of forsight can be very costly.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
This thread jumped off into the deep end. Periods, birth control, wtf?!?
The Wii U numbers are horrific, no spinning it otherwise. It's actually tracking with Gamecube according to our database at work of historical analyst data. That's bad.
The Wii U numbers are horrific, no spinning it otherwise. It's actually tracking with Gamecube according to our database at work of historical analyst data. That's bad.
test_account
XP-39C²
All predictions are being worked out with "maybes"
Predictions are just estimated guesses, either based on just a simple guess/gut feeling or based on different indicators/factors (in this case, the indicators being current WiiU sales and knowing that the upcoming game lineup isnt very strong, sales wise). No one here is 100% sure how the exact same outcome is, so all we can do is guess. Some just look at the poor WiiU sales in January and the near upcoming WiiU game lineup and think that this trend will be present for most of the year. At this early point in time, i guess we can say that one's guess is just as good as one's other guess.
NeonZ
Member
Hm... Would Nintendo be willing to do a complete rebrand and software rebuilding of the Wii U? Make a new cheaper model that's basically an HD Wii, without the tablet, drastically lower the console's price, and make the tablet completely optional for all games from that point on. They can give it a rebrand to avoid confusion too.
It's pretty clear people aren't hooked by the gamepad, so the best thing Nintendo could do would be to just throw it away and re-market themselves as a cheaper choice. Trying to stuff something consumers clearly don't care about on their faces will just make their job harder. The tablet could be supported with optional features, but never a necessary part of future games.
It's already a disaster at this point, so I don't see why they should keep promoting something that clearly doesn't work. At least that way they'd be able to completely replace the original Wii quickly.
It's pretty clear people aren't hooked by the gamepad, so the best thing Nintendo could do would be to just throw it away and re-market themselves as a cheaper choice. Trying to stuff something consumers clearly don't care about on their faces will just make their job harder. The tablet could be supported with optional features, but never a necessary part of future games.
It's already a disaster at this point, so I don't see why they should keep promoting something that clearly doesn't work. At least that way they'd be able to completely replace the original Wii quickly.
shinra-bansho
Member
While this is a US thread, can you share any insight on European sales? Are they similarly poor.
When I looked at past years drop-offs post Christmas taking the last publicly available data point from Nintendo's earnings presentation - I came to the guestimate of it probably doing around 10-15K a week in the European territory.
I'd echo the sentiment that the Wii U won't share in the Vita's fate (I'm going to guess early discontinuation). It has tools it can leverage to at least sell similar to the GCN. But ultimately if it sells like the GCN I would consider that a failure.
metalslimer
Member
Wait till you see the November NPD (assuming both launch in November). It'll be a full on console war.
I know Wii U has gone below my lowest expectations every time I have said this, but that just seems way too low. The European market as a whole is still bigger than the US one right?
Umm... okay. So you're just going to ignore the DS and 3DS? And the fact that gaming, whether you like it or not, is getting their lunch eaten by the fact mobile touch games are good enough for most?
WiiU and Vita have many problems, but this isn't what crippled them.
Admiral Bone to Pick
Banned
You know what else they have in common? Buttons. Clearly buttons are to blame for the stagnant sales of these two systems. Buttons don't belong in gaming.
Quinton McLeod
Banned
All predictions are being worked out with "maybes"
No. It's called common sense. You don't need a gut feeling to know the difference. If you see a bowling ball teetering at the edge of a balance board just above someone's head, common sense purports that the bowling ball will likely fall on that person's head unless they move. Saying, "The WiiU will fail because January is all we need to know this." conflicts with common sense. There's not enough data there to conclude that. I don't care what gut feeling or itch you've got. There's not enough evidence there to prove such a prediction.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't have access to any non-public data. It's an educated guess.
In week 52 2012 the system sold 37K in Europe based on Nintendo's presentation.
In 2011->2012 other consoles dropped:
~60% in week 1
~20% further in week 2
~20% further in week 3
before somewhat stabilising.
Applying these to the Wii U number would give a guestimate of: 15K, 12K, 9.5K, 9.5K.
It would fit roughly with estimates of UK numbers based on Nintendo Land being off the top 40 on the basis that the UK is usually around 20-25% of the Europe market in terms of size.
Quinton McLeod
Banned
test_account
XP-39C²
I'm just explaining to you why people use the indiactions and make a yearly prediction on this. There is no common sense in this specific case because this is very subjective. Some people think that the WiiU will do fine because of (insert reasons here), while others think that the WiiU wont do fine because of (insert reasons here). You could also flip the arguement and say that it is common sense that since the WiiU is selling so poorly to begin with, it will continue to do so. But this is a very subjective thing, not everyone belives that the WiiU will succeed or fail.
You're saying that there isnt enough information to say anything for certain (and as i mentioned earlier, i agree with this), but people can still make predictions. There are several of unknown factors for the remaining year, so no one here is saying 100% for sure what the final outcome for this year will be. They are just doing some prediction/guessing. You have another prediction. Everyone's guess is just as good as the other.
AdventureRacing
Member
The wii U and vita have both suffered for similar reasons. Firstly they show why it's so important to not wait until your console has completely died before releasing a successor. Both the PSP and wii had been left floundering for to long and any presence they had in the market was lost long before the release of their successors.
Basically this is why all that talk about MS and Sony being able to wait for another year are so incredibly foolish. You need to strike whilst your brand still has some relevance, that's how you keep yourself on top.
Another issue that i thought would have been really obvious was the need to build hype and have plenty of advertising. Both the vita and wii U had bizarre 'quiet' launches. Basically there was little to no advertising around their respective launches and i'm not sure where they were expecting the hype to come from.
With the wii you couldn't go anywhere without hearing about the thing, it was plastered all over the tv. The PSP likewise was being talked up everywhere. That's how the launch of a new big product needs to be. This idea that you can just release your console with little to no fanfare and then attempt to start advertising in the following months makes no sense to me and seems to go against what you would expect to see from a successful product.
Brand confusion is another obvious point. What the fuck is a vita? Seriously, no one seems to know what the thing is. It's one thing to not advertise to much if you're going from PS2 to PS3 but when you're going from PSP to vita you need to communicate exactly what the device is. Likewise for the wii. People don't know the wii U is a new product (that's if they have heard of it at all), that makes it difficult to get people to buy the thing.
Price is another issue, especially for the vita. I think this gen has shown that $250 is just too much for a dedicated gaming handheld. Software prices are an even bigger issue but i'm not sure how this should be addressed.
The biggest problem though, by far, is the lack of games. Both the vita and wii U and both sorely lacking in big selling software. Sure the vita has a few cool titles like wipeout but there is so little hardware moving software. The wii U line-up is plain embarrassing. I'm a huge nintendo fan and frankly i just can't justify buying a wii U. Launching with a few big games and then basically nothing for months is a sure fire way to kill your consoles ability to sell.
It's especially baffling to see nintendo make this mistake after what happened with the wii and 3DS. The whole launch has been a shambles.
This is such a strange argument. If you're saying that we can't know with 100% certainty how well the wii U will sell for 2013 that's a pretty obvious and to my mind irrelevant point to be making. Sure we can't say the exact number that the wii U will sell but we can make educated guesses.
You say that January numbers alone aren't enough but these judgements aren't being based on just that. They are being based on the poor January numbers, the huge drop from the holidays, comparisons to historic sales and the extremely barren release list for the wii U.
I don't think you seem to grasp just how bad these numbers are.
That's what a prediction is. If we could prove that the wii U would be a failure with conclusive evidence then it wouldn't be a prediction. It's possible for the wii U to turn around somewhat but right now things are heavily stacked against that.
Basically this is why all that talk about MS and Sony being able to wait for another year are so incredibly foolish. You need to strike whilst your brand still has some relevance, that's how you keep yourself on top.
Another issue that i thought would have been really obvious was the need to build hype and have plenty of advertising. Both the vita and wii U had bizarre 'quiet' launches. Basically there was little to no advertising around their respective launches and i'm not sure where they were expecting the hype to come from.
With the wii you couldn't go anywhere without hearing about the thing, it was plastered all over the tv. The PSP likewise was being talked up everywhere. That's how the launch of a new big product needs to be. This idea that you can just release your console with little to no fanfare and then attempt to start advertising in the following months makes no sense to me and seems to go against what you would expect to see from a successful product.
Brand confusion is another obvious point. What the fuck is a vita? Seriously, no one seems to know what the thing is. It's one thing to not advertise to much if you're going from PS2 to PS3 but when you're going from PSP to vita you need to communicate exactly what the device is. Likewise for the wii. People don't know the wii U is a new product (that's if they have heard of it at all), that makes it difficult to get people to buy the thing.
Price is another issue, especially for the vita. I think this gen has shown that $250 is just too much for a dedicated gaming handheld. Software prices are an even bigger issue but i'm not sure how this should be addressed.
The biggest problem though, by far, is the lack of games. Both the vita and wii U and both sorely lacking in big selling software. Sure the vita has a few cool titles like wipeout but there is so little hardware moving software. The wii U line-up is plain embarrassing. I'm a huge nintendo fan and frankly i just can't justify buying a wii U. Launching with a few big games and then basically nothing for months is a sure fire way to kill your consoles ability to sell.
It's especially baffling to see nintendo make this mistake after what happened with the wii and 3DS. The whole launch has been a shambles.
This is such a strange argument. If you're saying that we can't know with 100% certainty how well the wii U will sell for 2013 that's a pretty obvious and to my mind irrelevant point to be making. Sure we can't say the exact number that the wii U will sell but we can make educated guesses.
You say that January numbers alone aren't enough but these judgements aren't being based on just that. They are being based on the poor January numbers, the huge drop from the holidays, comparisons to historic sales and the extremely barren release list for the wii U.
I don't think you seem to grasp just how bad these numbers are.
That's what a prediction is. If we could prove that the wii U would be a failure with conclusive evidence then it wouldn't be a prediction. It's possible for the wii U to turn around somewhat but right now things are heavily stacked against that.
Sorry, you haven't given me enough information to make that prediction.
Is the bowling ball pregnant?
Neko Mimi Mode
Member
Absolutely dire sales for Wii U and with a lack of compelling software in the pipeline, I don't see how they will turn this around.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Quinton, I'm going to defer to your expert opinion here. How many months of data do we need before we can responsibly conclude the the current situation is bad? Because I don't want egg on my face if/when the November/December numbers somehow make these launch window numbers retroactively great.
shinra-bansho
Member
We don't know, but we do know it's missed it's period.
What they have in common is being more expensive than people are willing to pay and anemic game libraries.
But more importantly its price.
When Nintendo lowered the price of the 3DS it flew off the shelves even though the library didnt change immediately.
CitizenCope
Member
This is great. =DNeogaf's juniors are always ballsy
zomgbbqftw
Banned
In a best case scenario (as many individual country sales we subscribe to for PAL) it is about the same sales over the 5 week period.
It's dead in Europe as well.
DragonSworne
Banned
I think it is safe to say that Reggie will be fired.
If he is still around, this company is hopeless
If he is still around, this company is hopeless
metalslimer
Member
Holy shit Nintendo may not even get to 3.5 million by the end of March.
Reggie, while not great, has little to do with this horrendous disaster. This all stems from NCL's complete incompetence. If anything keeping Iwata around if this continues to get worse would be be a worse.
Thanks.
And Wii U goes below my already abysmally low expectations.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
A fan turned up at Ubisoft Montpellier with a banner to protest for them to release Rayman: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=512934
Michael Ancels concerned expression was too good to pass up:
Obviously knew not many of GAF were going to know Ancel by sight, but I'm glad so many did and got it. I broke out my rusty GCSE French for this tour de force!
So DmC sold less than either of the PS3 or X360 releases of DMC4. Its like a cake made entirely of ether. I simply can't eat another bite.
Thats three on the plate, Ninja Theory. This time with a multi-million selling IP.
GitarooMan
Member
He has nothing to work with, i don't think the bulk of the blame should be on him.
GrotesqueBeauty
Banned
Oof at the Wii U. The Rayman Legends debacle is just insult to injury. Nintendo better have a strong release schedule for the back half of the year or they'r fucked. And a price drop. Going over $299 without a stronger supporting library out of the gate was a major misstep.
He'll be let go when Iwata gets fired (which is clearly a matter of when now, not if). A new CEO tends to clean house and put in a new team.
shinra-bansho
Member
Where is the DmC number from?
That's roughly in line with what numbers modeled on past precedent post-holiday sales would give.
Thanks.
That's roughly in line with what numbers modeled on past precedent post-holiday sales would give.It selling on Sony's new handheld levels is not great, dude. Keep that spin machine going though.
DragonSworne said:
Reggie is nothing more than a sockpuppet for NoJ. Though he does have some say in what gets released over here (Reggie: no Xenoblade! Fans: FUCK YOU REGGIE RELEASE IT! Reggie: LOL K THO GAMESTOP ONLY AND ONE PRESS! Fans: FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUU @ $55+ new copies a year later and at a reasonable "high" demand for new print run).
The blame entirely rests on Iwata and the R&D team. They're trying to play catch-up to the HD twins since the casual market's ship has sailed, but the hardcore/"us gamers, huh, us gamers! (FUCKING GAMERS)" people aren't going to jump in the water to try to catch it for them.
Also whoever though launching a 30 gig console at $250 this day and age and having an update day-one take... I'm forgetting... 3-5 gigs of that space(?)! needs to be fired, pronto. They should've had on-board memory specifically for the OS.
michaelius
Banned
EU launch was much smaller than US - i don't see how Wii U would be doing above 10k per week in here when it does 11K in USA.
eBay Huckster
Member
Depending on their prices and the veracity of that no-used-games rumour, you might be in for a shock next winter.
Definitely looking like it's selling around that, if not worse (it might not even be hitting 10k in Europe based on what we've been hearing).
They may be lucky to hit 3 million units, let alone 3.5.
pieatorium
Member
So we are currently looking at like 34-36k a week worldwide for the last couple of weeks? There is no way they get to that 4 million target, and 3.5 is even in question.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
The 3DS, Vita, and Wii U all suffered from the same perception problem: noticeably inferior experiences and game libraries compared to the two most popular systems on the market, but with premium prices.
Neither Nintendo nor Sony has yet to give a compelling reason why these systems are worth more than a $199 360. That is why they are struggling. At least in Japan, the 3DS has a lineup of some of the biggest exclusives in the territory while simultaneously undercutting its competitors on price. Given the assumption that most of the console market is currently invested in HD gaming, why should they buy a system that offers less features and worse graphics than what they already have? And won't play the new Metal Gear or Fallout or Dragon Age or GTA or Crysis or Tomb Raider?
The Wii U situation will get better with more software, but a fundamental flaw in the hardware and OS is that it's not an upgrade at all, and isn't being treated as such by the market at large. That certainly won't be helped by the next gen glimpse we get next week.
Neither Nintendo nor Sony has yet to give a compelling reason why these systems are worth more than a $199 360. That is why they are struggling. At least in Japan, the 3DS has a lineup of some of the biggest exclusives in the territory while simultaneously undercutting its competitors on price. Given the assumption that most of the console market is currently invested in HD gaming, why should they buy a system that offers less features and worse graphics than what they already have? And won't play the new Metal Gear or Fallout or Dragon Age or GTA or Crysis or Tomb Raider?
The Wii U situation will get better with more software, but a fundamental flaw in the hardware and OS is that it's not an upgrade at all, and isn't being treated as such by the market at large. That certainly won't be helped by the next gen glimpse we get next week.
NeonZ
Member
The Wii U is a worldwide failure at this point, not just in the USA. The fault lies on the Japanese branch that likely had the biggest influence on the design, launch timming and branding of the console.
shinra-bansho
Member
They shipped 900K to Europe/Other. Road counted 430K from Nintendo's charts so it would be ~490K start of Feb being generous. Europe must be awash with Wii Us.
If Feb and March are similar to Jan - the only place that will need new supply is Japan, and even then the restock wouldn't be large considering current sales.
So yes, 3.5M is even looking like a stretch.
I think your sarcasm detector is broken.
DragonSworne
Banned
They all need to be fired.
The man who came up with the name Wii U needs to be retroactively kicked in the balls.
Same with the guy who came up with 3DS, most people I know are still convinced it is just a DS hardware revision ala DSi. Assuming they even heard of it, which is surprisingly still not many.
I must be the only one who thinks the WiiU will be a huge success. I believe a platforms success is determined by having a wide variaty of software offerings. Wii U is by design, very flexible and can offer lots of different types of games. When the content is there, in a about a year from now, sales will most surely pick up. Nintendo does have to make sure that atleast some third party ports are on the platform, or else it will be more difficult to build the momentum. But I still believe