Support NeoGAF

[velvet_nitemare]

I'm just talking about those games you know?

1. They'll probably be in Wii's 3rd Party Top 10.
2. Those games would have sales numbers that is comparable to the sales numbers of the Top 10 games of 360/PS3.

Yeah I'm talking about the month they are released.

The bottom half of the top 10 maybe...especially for NMH2. It will have a few days of sales since it releases late in the month, and will probably get outsold by both versions of MW2, both versions of Bayonetta, Mass Effect 2 and God knows what else from previous months.

MH3 is a wildcard, i'd have to check what releases in the same month, but don't expect anything big there either. Might wanna adjust your expectations accordingly.

 

[Kintaro]

Can you imagine the lulz if (when?) the Wii completely mauls both the PS3 w/ Wand and 360 w/ Natal during the Holiday 2010 sales period?

 

[legend166]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/ent...d-fails-to-make-much-noise-over-holidays.html

December:
[ALL] The Beatles: Rock Band - 357,000

2009:
[ALL] The Beatles: Rock Band - 1,180,000
[ALL] Guitar Hero 5 - 996,000

Both are bombas. Sucks for Beatles. I doubt we'll be seeing any more DLC.

 

[Tmac]

Pretty sure 360 2009 was > 2008. Which was > 2007 which was > 2006.

Downward trend?

Absolute numbers doesnt mean anything. The best way to analize is with relative numbers. In 360 vs PS3, microsoft market share have declined every single year.

360 market on the "hd" market:

2005 - 100%
2006 - 85%
2007 - 64%
2008 - 57%
2009 - 52%
2010 - ?

Now correcting your sentence, for the 360 2009 was < 2008. Which was < 2007 which was < 2006.

 

[grandjedi6]

Bullshit. The wii userbase is simple - it wants good games or a good deal. Third parties may well be as deluded as you are, thinking that the audience just doesn't want the kind of games they are capable of making, but the truth is Wii owners have just been very discerning.

Is the Wii userbase was so discerning, then why do shitty titles like Game Party sell over a million? The truth is the Wii userbase is not discerning at all. And that makes sense: when you have an install base as large and demographically like the Wii's, its userbase is going to be undiscerning for the most part (though there exists high potential that the userbase will become discerning after a while, hence why shitty minigame collections don't sell on the Wii anymore).

In the Wii's top 10 excluding Nintendo games, with comparable numbers to top 10 of the 360/PS3. NMH2 depending on the marketing department though (I'm sure Capcom will do it's marketing job right with MH).

Me neither. But I do think that the Wii has about the same amount of the demographic that plays games as the ones I mentioned above (as in: it would probably not sell less or more on those systems).

You think the Wii's "gamer" demographic is about the same amount as the PS360's?!:lol

And the "Wii's top 10 excluding Nintendo games" is an incredibly low threshold to pass.

The problem is everyone equates "big budget" to "AAA". While I consider the latter a meanlingless term, I can see where so many people are coming from with the argument. While I personally think the Wii is far and away the best console this gen (I have 30+ games for the damn thing), an argument can be made for the other side as well.

Its such a silly argument though. On one hand people while argue that the Wii's hidden strength is that 3rd parties don't need big budgets but then on the other hand they'll complain about the Wii not having big budget games comparable to PS360 games. Its a catch-22.

 

[legend166]

Game Party was a budget release.

 

[Psychotext]

Absolute numbers doesnt mean anything. The best way to analize is with relative numbers. In 360 vs PS3, microsoft market share have declined every single year

You realise that would have happened anyway by virtue of the fact they were first to launch and therefore held a 100% market share at one point? It's logically impossible to maintain unless your competitors sell exactly 0. The 360 could outsell the PS3 every year and its marketshare would have still dropped.

Here's an example.

100 360s, 0 PS3s, 100% marketshare
200 360s, 50 PS3s, 80% marketshare
300 360s, 125 PS3s, 70% marketshare
400 360s, 220 PS3s, 64% marketshare....

 

[Count Dookkake]

:lol

It's a fad!

 

[Kagari]

Can you imagine the lulz if (when?) the Wii completely mauls both the PS3 w/ Wand and 360 w/ Natal during the Holiday 2010 sales period?

Isn't everyone already expecting that though?

 

[user_nat]

Absolute numbers doesnt mean anything. The best way to analize is with relative numbers. In 360 vs PS3, microsoft market share have declined every single year.

360 market on the "hd" market:

2005 - 100%
2006 - 85%
2007 - 64%
2008 - 57%
2009 - 52%
2010 - ?

Now correcting your sentence, for the 360 2009 was < 2008. Which was < 2007 which was < 2006.

The PS3 could sell 1 unit a year and the 360 market share would drop.

So yeah, I think actual units sold in a year is a better way of measuring it.

edit: beat, sorta.

 

[starsky]

Nintendo, fuck yeah!!!

That Wii DS numbers are just so insane on so many levels.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Both are bombas. Sucks for Beatles. I doubt we'll be seeing any more DLC.

Hardly a bomba, but definitely less than they were hoping for.

I think we all know that Green Day won't do even half of those Beatles numbers, and Guitar Hero 6 will be lucky to even do 1/3 of what 5 did (unless they give away another free game).

 

[Chozo]

Is the Wii userbase was so discerning, then why do shitty titles like Game Party sell over a million? The truth is the Wii userbase is not discerning at all. And that makes sense: when you have an install base as large and demographically like the Wii's, its userbase is going to be undiscerning for the most part (though there exists high potential that the userbase will become discerning after a while, hence why shitty minigame collections don't sell on the Wii anymore).

Um...I'm pretty sure there have been games that were shitty selling lots on other systems, too. Wii's third party situation is pretty terrible, but this particular point doesn't strike me as being any more of an indictment of the audience than some of the shitty million seller games on the PS2 were of that audience.

 

[Fixed2BeBroken]

Jersey Shore. It's a show on MTV.

which episode

 

[FrankT]

Show me a source so I can catch up then.

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/xbox-division-doubles-profit-in-q1/

Zune dragged the business down, Xbox the saviour of the EDD division.
Xbox profits way up due to lower manufacturing costs, Halo 3 ODST (and no real price cut I might add).
2.1 m units shipped in the quarter slightly down from 2.2m of last year.
Xbox 360 LTD shipments at 33.5m

I suppose someone could argue they are not making return at this point, but doubtful.

 

[Archie]

Hardly a bomba, but definitely less than they were hoping for.

I think we all know that Green Day won't do even half of those Beatles numbers, and Guitar Hero 6 will be lucky to even do 1/3 of what 5 did (unless they give away another free game).

MTV was expecting 4 million sales by the end of '09, and there was a $10 million down payment for the license and up to $40 million in royalties based on sales. Beatles bombed hard.

 

[Cipherr]

Its such a silly argument though. On one hand people while argue that the Wii's hidden strength is that 3rd parties don't need big budgets but then on the other hand they'll complain about the Wii not having big budget games comparable to PS360 games. Its a catch-22.

I think the entire point of Wii being cheaper to develop for is just a garbage point to try and argue really, like someone grasping for straws to find positives for the Wii. IMO access to the number one selling console thats putting itself in homes at a pace faster than the industry has ever seen is a reason to WANT in on it from a business prospective. Putting effort into developing good games rather than shovelware is always going to cost lots of money, because talent costs money, and making a good game takes time, and time is money. So the budget POV is kind of moot. I do think that a very well developed game for the Wii would likely come in cheaper than an HD counterpart for sure....

But in these days when the marketing budget for a blockbuster game can exceed 20 million, the marketing is such a huge slice of the development pie that the cheaper cost of the actual Wii development is likely negligible.

Doesnt matter though, IMO ship has sailed on this whole third party Wii thing. Seeing their PR about dropping Wii support just as it makes history saleswise it about all it should take for anyone to realize it. Im just hoping Nintendo isnt able to gobble up so much fucking marketshare they way they have been. Shit aint healthy, and these one or two Modern Warfare esque titles a year arent offsetting the massive slice of the pie Nintendo keeps taking every year.

 

[schuelma]

On one hand people while argue that the Wii's hidden strength is that 3rd parties don't need big budgets but then on the other hand they'll complain about the Wii not having big budget games comparable to PS360 games. Its a catch-22.

Ok, but I think there is a distinction that many of us try to make- you can spend less on Wii development, but still spend more than like...jack shit..which is what most 3rd parties seem to spend.

I mean RE: Darkside Chronicles..actually a pretty good looking game compared to the atrocities most companies put out. Does anyone think it cost anything substantial to make?

 

[Stumpokapow]

The PS3 could sell 1 unit a year and the 360 market share would drop.

Err, that's not true.

LTD values, as an example
Hypothetical Year One: 360 - 5 million. Marketshare 360 100%
Hypothetical Year Two: 360 - 10 million, PS3 5 million. Marketshare 360 66% PS3 33%
Hypothetical Year Three: 360 - 18 million, PS3 8 million. Marketshare 360 69.2%, PS3 30.7%

Marketshare increases if the current year's marketshare is better than the total marketshare. Marketshare decreases if the current year's marketshare is worse than the total marketshare.

So, yes, when you have 100% market share a competitor launches, you will lose marketshare until it reaches an equilibrium point, but after that it could go either way.

 

[LCGeek]

Its such a silly argument though. On one hand people while argue that the Wii's hidden strength is that 3rd parties don't need big budgets but then on the other hand they'll complain about the Wii not having big budget games comparable to PS360 games. Its a catch-22.

Not it's not because the way you frame isn't what Wii people speaking their viewpoint are saying. We don't want the budget we want the talent pool in the industry to be used more wisely. No we can't because PS3 is a gigantic programming mess and most devs waste a ton of money on making multi platform titles for two platforms that aren't worth the bloated coast of this generation, pc and PS3. Why even say the three platforms are different it's clear pc is gimped because of such a style and the effort devs spend on certain ps3 titles is a joke at times. No catch 22.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

You realise that would have happened anyway by virtue of the fact they were first to launch and therefore held a 100% market share at one point? It's logically impossible to maintain unless your competitors sell exactly 0. The 360 could outsell the PS3 every year and its marketshare would have still dropped.

Here's an example.

100 360s, 0 PS3s, 100% marketshare
200 360s, 50 PS3s, 80% marketshare
300 360s, 125 PS3s, 70% marketshare

I think you're misinterpreting. He's not going cumulative.

 

[Kintaro]

Isn't everyone already expecting that though?

I honestly don't know. Will sure look like egg in the faces of MS and Sony though.

What a mess for those two.

 

[Tmac]

The PS3 could sell 1 unit a year and the 360 market share would drop.

So yeah, I think actual units sold in a year is a better way of measuring it.

edit: beat, sorta.

Wake up, those are actual sales market share, not intalled base market share.

For that series we have three full years of both consoles in the market (2007, 2008 and 2009).

The 360 sales market share compared to ps3 is consistently declining. Try to explain that.

It doesnt matter if i sell 10% more this year, if my competitor sells 50% more im actually selling less. How hard is to understand a basic concept like that?

 

[Psychotext]

I think you're misinterpreting. He's not going cumulative.

Share of sales per year? That's even less useful as your competitor can go from horrible sales, to ok sales and whilst you're outselling them it's still meaningless.

 

[hellclerk]

In the Wii's top 10 excluding Nintendo games, with comparable numbers to top 10 of the 360/PS3. NMH2 depending on the marketing department though (I'm sure Capcom will do it's marketing job right with MH).

I wouldn't bet much on MHtri. How they get the game off the ground in the US will depend largely on their marketing, and from what I've seen so far, I don't have much confidence...

 

[Crash Station]

Its such a silly argument though. On one hand people while argue that the Wii's hidden strength is that 3rd parties don't need big budgets but then on the other hand they'll complain about the Wii not having big budget games comparable to PS360 games. Its a catch-22.

I think the problem is no one even knows what they're arguing about anymore. Big budget, small budget, sales, lack of motion, too much motion, established I.P.s, original games, too kiddy, too elderly, ignorant non gaming masses, fickle gaming masses. No one is going to win this argument because like you said, it's a catch-22.

I personally think the argument should be "no main games in established I.P.s" and THAT'S IT! That is the only valid argument because there is some truth to it. I honestly don't give a crap about most 3rd party sequels that came out this gen or else I'd have a lot more PS3 games.

So yeah, I agree with you 100%.

 

[dolemite]

Wake up, those are actual sales market share, not intalled base market share.

For that series we have three full years of both consoles in the market (2007, 2008 and 2009).

The 360 sales market share compared to ps3 is consistently declining. Try to explain that.

It doesnt matter if i sell 10% more this year, if my competitor sells 50% more im actually selling less. How hard is to understand a basic concept like that?

It's not like MSFT is sitting on their asses doing nothing, Natal is coming in the Fall, may even do price cuts as well.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

I wouldn't bet much on MHtri. How they get the game off the ground in the US will depend largely on their marketing, and from what I've seen so far, I don't have much confidence...

Err, isn't Nintendo helping Capcom with marketing? The games just aren't that popular in the US.

 

[Lostconfused]

Err, isn't Nintendo helping Capcom with marketing? The games just aren't that popular in the US.

Yeah it will probably never catch on the way it did in japan.

 

[Stumpokapow]

It doesnt matter if i sell 10% more this year, if my competitor sells 50% more im actually selling less. How hard is to understand a basic concept like that?

... that... isn't true at all.

Nintendo didn't improve YOY as much as Sony did. Does this mean Nintendo is selling less?

 

[Version 3.0]

On one hand people while argue that the Wii's hidden strength is that 3rd parties don't need big budgets but then on the other hand they'll complain about the Wii not having big budget games comparable to PS360 games. Its a catch-22.

You're misunderstanding both of those statements--in the same way that 3rd parties misunderstand them. When someone says that Wii games "don't need big budgets", they mean they shouldn't cost what PS3/360 games cost to make, but more in line with a PS2 or Gamecube game's budget. 3rd parties certainly aren't spending that much.

When someone says the Wii "doesn't have big budget games", they again mean comparable to a last-gen game's budget. How this isn't blatantly obvious in the face of all the "Wii = Gamecube" jokes is astounding.

 

[Juice]

Just popping in to say hi. What a month. This thread lived up to my expectations.

 

[user_nat]

Err, that's not true.

LTD values, as an example
Hypothetical Year One: 360 - 5 million. Marketshare 360 100%
Hypothetical Year Two: 360 - 10 million, PS3 5 million. Marketshare 360 66% PS3 33%
Hypothetical Year Three: 360 - 18 million, PS3 8 million. Marketshare 360 69.2%, PS3 30.7%

Marketshare increases if the current year's marketshare is better than the total marketshare. Marketshare decreases if the current year's marketshare is worse than the total marketshare.

Good point.

But my example (the PS3 selling 1 unit) does work for the first year or so.

Hypothetical Year One: 360 - 5 million. Marketshare 360 100%
Hypothetical Year Two: 360 - 10 million, PS3 1 unit. Marketshare 360 99.9999999% PS3 0.0000001% (give or take some decimal places)
Hypothetical Year Three: 360 - 18 million, PS3 2 units. Which would mean the PS3 increased again, but I don't want to work out how much.

Had the 360 sold 10m in the 3rd year it wouldn't have worked.

 

[beelzebozo]

Yeah it will probably never catch on the way it did in japan.

it doesn't help that it sounds like a colecovision game that uses the concept as the title

"monster hunter"

"cave explorer"

"ocean swimmer"

 

[DR2K]

NSMBW.

yes.

2d gaming, alive and well.

The genre itself actually dead and buried. With the sole exception of Mario.

 

[FrankT]

Share of sales per year? That's even less useful as your competitor can go from horrible sales, to ok sales and whilst you're outselling them it's still meaningless.

Pretty obscure to say the least especially so when you say the lead before the PS3 even hit was around I don't know 5 million or so in the US maybe and now it's 7.5 or so. It doesn’t mean much when your still 3rd at the end of the day every single year.

 

[SirButterstick]

Exactly, in NA since August ps3 outsold the 360 for 2 months, two month were a TIE and the 360 won just one. Thats not "1 month".

And like a said, thats NA alone, where the 360 still have a huge advantage, when you look at worlwide numbers the ps3 is outselling the 360 by a good margin for a while now.

This gen starts when Sony-fans say it does.

 

[Cipherr]

You're misunderstanding both of those statements--in the same way that 3rd parties misunderstand them. When someone says that Wii games "don't need big budgets", they mean they shouldn't cost what PS3/360 games cost to make, but more in line with a PS2 or Gamecube game's budget. 3rd parties certainly aren't spending that much.

When someone says the Wii "doesn't have big budget games", they again mean comparable to a last-gen game's budget. How this isn't blatantly obvious in the face of all the "Wii = Gamecube" jokes is astounding.

Yeah but even if those games did have the budget of last gens blockbusters in terms of development costs, would they sell the way those games did without advertising campaigns?

Advertising costs arent going to scale downward because the Wii uses 5 year old tech. Thats going to be the same across the board. So I just wonder, in the end, how big is the rift between the two? Im sure the difference is big enough to matter, but try and see it from the devs perspectives, they likely arent really interested in the Wii TBH, and would rationalize it anyway they could. Thats where the whole PC+360+PS3 as one, vs the Wii stuff started.

 

[DayShallCome]

Wake up, those are actual sales market share, not intalled base market share.

For that series we have three full years of both consoles in the market (2007, 2008 and 2009).

The 360 sales market share compared to ps3 is consistently declining. Try to explain that.

It doesnt matter if i sell 10% more this year, if my competitor sells 50% more im actually selling less. How hard is to understand a basic concept like that?

That's just simply not true.

 

[Bizzyb]

WOW those numbers are crazy, Wii almost 4 million is in fiction territory :lol

Wii HD/ Wii 2/ Super Wii/ Green Wii won't come out for along time :lol

December has always been a High selling month. I wouldn't look at what happens in the month of December to determine what will happen 14 months from then. Being short-sighted, even while doing great-excellent in the present is a surefire way to determine you lose that success somewhere down the road.

Isn't everyone already expecting that though?

Wasn't MS expecting to Maul the Wii Holiday 2007 with it's infinitely superior visual, and audio fidelity? I wouldn't take anything for granted, though I wouldn't be surprised if Wii continued to outdo MS and Sony camp.

 

[markatisu]

Err, isn't Nintendo helping Capcom with marketing? The games just aren't that popular in the US.

You are correct on both counts, but its success in the US needs to be framed properly (which most of GAF won't do)

Personally I think anything above 300-400k in the US would be cause to rejoice given the sales of the series on Western shores.

 

[jay]

The genre itself actually dead and buried. With the sole exception of Mario.

If that's true then explain how a Boy and his Blob sold 67 copies this December.

 

[Aaron Strife]

mother of God

 

[ShinNL]

You think the Wii's "gamer" demographic is about the same amount as the PS360's?!:lol

I don't know why you're being so arrogant, but I'll be quoting this for later.

 

[CoG]

Microsoft’s Aaron Greenberg has posted a response to the recently released December 2009 NPD sales results. He stated that the Xbox 360 had a great year in 2009 with it outselling the Playstation 3

:lol ~400k units.

EDIT: didnt see last months thread. My bad.

 

[VALIS]

anyone know wtf this is from?

Jersey Shore, the greatest reality show ever.

 

[FrankT]

:lol ~400k units. Thank the ban wave I guess.

lulz

Must of missed last months thread.

Jersey Shore, the greatest reality show ever.

For all the hype I really need to see this. I mean he just cold clocked her there.

 

[Stumpokapow]

You're misunderstanding both of those statements--in the same way that 3rd parties misunderstand them. When someone says that Wii games "don't need big budgets", they mean they shouldn't cost what PS3/360 games cost to make, but more in line with a PS2 or Gamecube game's budget. 3rd parties certainly aren't spending that much.

When someone says the Wii "doesn't have big budget games", they again mean comparable to a last-gen game's budget. How this isn't blatantly obvious in the face of all the "Wii = Gamecube" jokes is astounding.

Of course, the same argument is also lost on people who argue that a given Wii game failed because it "wasn't marketed enough", "wasn't good enough", or "wasn't mainstream enough".

Publishers developing D tier games with D tier budgets and D tier marketing expect D tier sales. Publishers developing C tier games with C tier budgets and C tier marketing expect C tier sales. Publishers developing B tier games with B tier budgets and B tier marketing expect B tier sales. Publishers developing A tier games with A tier budgets and A tier marketing expect A tier sales.

The issue comes when either publishers don't expect in line with what they put in OR sales don't return in line with what they put in. When something like Spyborgs gets fewer than a thousand sales, it really doesn't matter that it's not an A tier game, it didn't have an A tier budget, and it didn't have A tier marketing. What matters is that it didn't even get the 5-10k it would have probably eked out on PS2. When Little King's Story doesn't get 200k sales month one, that's not a problem. When it doesn't get 20k sales month one, that is a problem.

All sides need to realize that there is a continuum of quality, a continuum of budget, a continuum of market, and a continuum of sales; the discussion should center around where this obvious mapping falls apart and what we do about those examples.

 

[SonOfABeep]

Good sales all around.

I hope MS picks up the pace with Sony nipping at their heels. They need to beef up 1st party and quit raping people on accessories.

DS and Wii are absolute beasts. I just wish more games came out for DS that I want to play, like earlier in the system's life.

 

[Oneself]

NSMBW.

yes.

2d gaming, alive and well.

I hope other companies will take notes and release new 2.5D games... multiplatform.

...

Like Klonoa 3 , Castlevania , Contra, something!!