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NPD Sales Results for December 2009

Opiate

Member
Hey look! Bloomberg was positive about Nintendo.

Apparently, they are indeed a stock-focused news outlet, and not some cabal engaged in an anti-Nintendo conspiracy.

When Nintendo shows growth, the news will be positive. When they show YoY reductions, the news will be negative.

Bloomberg is only marginally interested in how well you're doing comapred to the competition -- a metric Nintendo has succeeded on throughout the year. Instead, they're obsessively interested in how well you're doing compared to yourself, a metric Nintendo was failing at for ~9 months straight. That's what drives shareholder value.
 
NPDjan10t.gif


I apologize about the size.
 
Opiate said:
Cumulative year over year sales trends, rounded to the nearest percent:

Wii: -5%
PS3: +22%
360: +0%
DS: +13%
PSP: -35%
PS2: -28%

Year over year winners: PS3, DS
Year over year losers: PSP, PS2
Eh: 360, Wii
Wow, weren't the 360 and PS3 tied at +5% last month? December is some strong juujuu.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Opiate said:
Hey look! Bloomberg was positive about Nintendo.

Apparently, they are indeed a stock-focused news outlet, and not some cabal engaged in an anti-Nintendo conspiracy.

When Nintendo shows growth, the news will be positive. When they show YoY reductions, the news will be negative.

Bloomberg is only marginally interested in how well you're doing comapred to the competition -- a metric Nintendo has succeeded on throughout the year. Instead, they're obsessively interested in how well you're doing compared to yourself, a metric Nintendo was failing at for ~9 months straight. That's what drives shareholder value.

But Nintendo shares are still down today. This didn't lead to any rally. It means investors expected such a performance for December.
 

Nutter

Member
Opiate said:
Hey look! Bloomberg was positive about Nintendo.

Apparently, they are indeed a stock-focused news outlet, and not some cabal engaged in an anti-Nintendo conspiracy.

When Nintendo shows growth, the news will be positive. When they show YoY reductions, the news will be negative.

Bloomberg is only marginally interested in how well you're doing comapred to the competition -- a metric Nintendo has succeeded on throughout the year. Instead, they're obsessively interested in how well you're doing compared to yourself, a metric Nintendo was failing at for ~9 months straight. That's what drives shareholder value.
So next Christmas when Wii sells 3 million, will Nintendo be doomed according to Bloomberg? :lol
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Opiate said:
Cumulative year over year sales trends, rounded to the nearest percent:

Wii: -5%
PS3: +22%
360: +0%
DS: +13%
PSP: -35%
PS2: -28%

Year over year winners: PS3, DS
Year over year losers: PSP, PS2
Eh: 360, Wii

Continuously iterating hardware is successful. That's right: Wii HD here we come.
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Opiate said:
Hey look! Bloomberg was positive about Nintendo.

Apparently, they are indeed a stock-focused news outlet, and not some cabal engaged in an anti-Nintendo conspiracy.

When Nintendo shows growth, the news will be positive. When they show YoY reductions, the news will be negative.

Bloomberg is only marginally interested in how well you're doing comapred to the competition -- a metric Nintendo has succeeded on throughout the year. Instead, they're obsessively interested in how well you're doing compared to yourself, a metric Nintendo was failing at for ~9 months straight. That's what drives shareholder value.

I think Nintendo improved communications with them actually..

Probably they would have focused on the total year numbers which were still down, another week and they'll probably still do that. Xbox 360 is the champion, criticism there I haven't looked for, was it meaningful?
 
Opiate said:
Hey look! Bloomberg was positive about Nintendo.

Apparently, they are indeed a stock-focused news outlet, and not some cabal engaged in an anti-Nintendo conspiracy.

When Nintendo shows growth, the news will be positive. When they show YoY reductions, the news will be negative.

Bloomberg is only marginally interested in how well you're doing comapred to the competition -- a metric Nintendo has succeeded on throughout the year. Instead, they're obsessively interested in how well you're doing compared to yourself, a metric Nintendo was failing at for ~9 months straight. That's what drives shareholder value.

There are lots of stupid things about this though, like the superficial month-by-month view that can't really take anything into consideration, the requirement for constant growth and so on. But yeah, it's mostly not Bloomberg's stupidity (although they did seem to be harder on Nintendo than MS and Sony in the same situation hehe) but the way business works.
 
Zoramon089 said:
Is there any way to even explain the Wii's sales? I mean, does Nintendo even know why it's such a beast?! How is it possible!

new-super-mario-bros-wii-box.jpg


The biggest story in this NPD is without a doubt NSMB. Not just because it sold over 2 million units or because it is on track to outsell MW (and everything else), but because it touches every other major issue raised by this month's data. NSMB is the reason why Wii sales are so phenomenal. A few months ago, the Wii was asleep. It got a price cut, but that barely righted the ship. Then NSMB shows up and the console explodes. NSMB slaughters a lot of sacred cows; 2D gaming is dead, 2D Mario and 3D Mario are equally popular, Wii owners don't like "gamer's games". You can say whatever you want about the Wii market being "fickle" or made up of "casuals", but 2D Mario is as traditional a game as you're going to get. It defined gaming for a generation, we can't pretend it's casual just because it doesn't fit with the industry's current focus. In this sense, it even highlights the third party situation. Third parties claim that they don't know how to make successful Wii games. But how can they not know how to develop games on a console whose marquee title is a 2D platformer? They only have twenty years of data from at least five consoles to base their decisions on.
 

w3stfa11

Member
EmCeeGramr said:
this is totally stupid and i can't believe it's being discussed again but it sounded to me like he was saying something like "outsell one version in the us through january? yes, I definitely think so" and geoff interrupted him in the middle to say, "you mean on the 360?!?!" and reggie just kept on talking so geoff took that as an answer

but anyway it's dumb because it was reggie giving a bullshit video game company pr response to a stupid video game non-journalist question, so the fact that people honestly want to prove him wrong or right is pathetic

I agree with this.

Here's the original video. (skip to ~4:30)
http://www.gametrailers.com/episode/gametrailers-tv/77?ep=77

Also, Geoff Keighley is talking about it on his twitter.
http://twitter.com/geoffkeighley
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Nintendo cut the price of the Wii to $200 in September. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. also ran a holiday promotion that took an additional $50 off the price.

“Nintendo crushed it on the Wii because Wal-Mart gave everyone who bought one $50,” Pachter said. “Wal-Mart did a de facto price cut for the Wii and now we know how well the consoles will sell at the $150 price point.”


Sounds like a reasonable point but I'm wondering how we could test the theory. I'm not sure if Canada got the same Wii deal that the USA got. If we ever get the Canada NPD sales we could compare the differences in Wii sales percentage and that might show some noticeable difference. On the other hand Canada is notoriously Nintendoland, so Canada's Wii percentage of the decembers sales might be even higher. :lol
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Remember back in the day when a game selling 15 million was considered a big deal? How times have changed.
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Didn't Wal-Mart do a $100 deal on the Xbox 360? I don't think that did as well, even though it was probably limited. But still...

This is usual Pachter trying to minimize Nintendo's appeal, "when everybody gets to $150 they'll sell, slash prices!"...

it just goes on...and on...
 

Tiktaalik

Member
kame-sennin said:
The biggest story in this NPD is without a doubt NSMB. Not just because it sold over 2 million units or because it is on track to outsell MW (and everything else), but because it touches every other major issue raised by this month's data. NSMB is the reason why Wii sales are so phenomenal. A few months ago, the Wii was asleep. It got a price cut, but that barely righted the ship. Then NSMB shows up and the console explodes. NSMB slaughters a lot of sacred cows; 2D gaming is dead, 2D Mario and 3D Mario are equally popular, Wii owners don't like "gamer's games". You can say whatever you want about the Wii market being "fickle" or made up of "casuals", but 2D Mario is as traditional a game as you're going to get. It defined gaming for a generation, we can't pretend it's casual just because it doesn't fit with the industry's current focus. In this sense, it even highlights the third party situation. Third parties claim that they don't know how to make successful Wii games. But how can they not know how to develop games on a console whose marquee title is a 2D platformer? They only have twenty years of data from at least five consoles to base their decisions on.


Part of me wants to dismiss your point by saying that a Mario game is a Mario game, and that doesn't prove anything, but I can't totally dismiss it because I do definitely agree with you that games for everyone is absolutely the way to go in every way, especially on the Wii.

I'd love to see 3rd parties take notice. Konami for example should look at this and make a boxed copy version of their new Rocket Knight XBLA game for the Wii. Why not?

I'd love to see a bizarro return to the age of SNES/Genny mascot platformers.:D
 

Snipes424

Member
skyfinch said:
??
PS3 only outsold Xbox by 50k.

Be better if the tree just slightly nudged up against him, rather than a beat down.

I agree with you, but there were months this year where the difference was less than 50k and people were freaking out their minds saying the PS3 is doomed. So it's entertainment for me :lol
 

Opiate

Member
Nutter said:
So next Christmas when Wii sells 3 million, will Nintendo be doomed according to Bloomberg? :lol

That's possible, yeah. I'm not saying that's an accurate view of the industry in general terms, but it may be an accurate view of the way the stock will respond in the immediate future, which is Bloomberg's primary concern.

Ether Snake said:
But Nintendo shares are still down today. This didn't lead to any rally. It means investors expected such a performance for December.

Of course, because the stock rose in price by ~18% just in the last two weeks. The stock rose in response to Nintendo's earlier press releases, indicating their large sales.

It's isn't that this isn't good news, it's just that it's good news that's already been factored in over the last two weeks.
 

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
The really surprising numbers here are Mario and Luigi and Bowser and Mario Kart WHEEEEEE. I mean, I knew they were selling very well, but I didn't expect them to appear in the Top Ten. :lol

As for the Wii number, I think it's obvious what happened. 2D Mario happened.
 
lowlylowlycook said:
So is "The Innovator's Dilemma" still the best intro book for "disruption"?

It's good, but I think (and have argued in other threads) you should read Blue Ocean Strategy if you're interested in understanding what Nintendo is doing in particular.



Bloomberg said:
Nintendo accounted for 6 of the top 10 games, including the top-seller “Super Mario Bros Wii,” which sold 2.8 million copies.

Bloomberg said:
A disappointing holiday season led GameStop Inc., Electronic Arts Inc. and Ubisoft SA to reduce their earnings projections.

I guess a successful Nintendo is bad for third-parties AND GameStop :lol :lol
 

Danthrax

Batteries the CRISIS!
donny2112 said:
So the Wii was down 5.6% on the year. With all the "doom" and "Wii's bubble is deflating" articles, that's got to be pretty embarrassing for a lot of gaming media.

No, they'll just ignore the reality of the situation. Like they usually do.
 

Deku

Banned
timetokill said:
It's good, but I think (and have argued in other threads) you should read Blue Ocean Strategy if you're interested in understanding what Nintendo is doing in particular.

Doesn't hurt, but over-reliance on text book frameworks tend to dilute the quality of the analysis by forcing things into boxes.

I think a lot of the arguments in 2009 are still holdovers from as far back as 2005 when the DS was rocking the boat, with both sides of those arguing trying to prove a point of vindication about the direction of the industry.

I frankly don't think that's the right away to go about discussing sales anymore, especially the endless droning of 3rd party discussions in an industry that, though is down yoy, is reporting one of its highest revenue intake in history, yet studios are still being shut down and EA is losing money.

I guess people are attracted to minutiae and the sound of their own words.
 

AniHawk

Member
Okay, so I've just now caught up. I can't believe Mario & Luigi 3 did so well. It's right around 1.3m, which easily makes it the best selling game in the series already.

Between the Wii and MW2, it's been a pretty fucking crazy end of the year for sales.
 

BowieZ

Banned
Fredescu said:
Was this really a sacred cow? The majority of people expected NSMBW to outsell Galaxy.
But the argument is often given that NSMBW only sold because it's Mario... when Galaxy sort of palls in comparison (not that it didn't also sell well).
 

Deku

Banned
AniHawk said:
Okay, so I've just now caught up. I can't believe Mario & Luigi 3 did so well. It's right around 1.3m, which easily makes it the best selling game in the series already.

Between the Wii and MW2, it's been a pretty fucking crazy end of the year for sales.

Really happy of that. alpha dream is truly an underrated team and one of my favorite developers. They've delivered, what, 3? Mario and Luigi RPGs now all with consistently high quality and to largely very good sales.

And Yoko Shimomura <3
 

Fredescu

Member
BowieZ said:
But the argument is often given that NSMBW only sold because it's Mario... when Galaxy sort of palls in comparison (not that it didn't also sell well).
Super Paper Mario pales in comparison to Mario Galaxy. We didn't have to wait for NSMBW sales to find out that not all Mario titles are equal.
 
AniHawk said:
Okay, so I've just now caught up. I can't believe Mario & Luigi 3 did so well. It's right around 1.3m, which easily makes it the best selling game in the series already.

Between the Wii and MW2, it's been a pretty fucking crazy end of the year for sales.

AniHawk you were in my redneck home town! You should have called me we could gotten a classy dinner at the Nugget and thrown stuff off the 395 overpass.

CartridgeBlower said:
Wait...so according to 1up...Uncharted 2 hasn't even sold a million yet in the US?

Damn...can that actually be true? Wow...

I thought it did sell a million?
 
timetokill said:
It's good, but I think (and have argued in other threads) you should read Blue Ocean Strategy if you're interested in understanding what Nintendo is doing in particular.

Well this bit from the Amazon reviews of "The Innovator's Dilemma" seem pretty spot on:

The events described above can be understood by the four principles of disruptive technologies which Christensen formulates:

1. In well-led companies it is customers, not managers, who actually determine resources allocation. This is a proposition of the resources dependence theory (Pfeffer & Salancik, 1978) which is supported strongly by the research of Christensen. In essence: middle managers will not tend to invest in technologies that are not directly appreciated by important (large) clients, because they will not be able to get quick financial gains by doing this.
 

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
You know what's funny? I still haven't bought Mario Kart Wii.

I want to, I just keep postponing it for whatever reasons. I wonder if there are people like myself all around.
 

skyfinch

Member
Snipes424 said:
I agree with you, but there were months this year where the difference was less than 50k and people were freaking out their minds saying the PS3 is doomed. So it's entertainment for me :lol

Well, in the end, Xbox did manage to outsell PS3 by 400k this year so that is a sort of funny.
 
lowlylowlycook said:
People don't trade in Nintendo titles I guess.
Every time I see them used they . . . are pretty much the same price as new. 0_o

I mean, fuck . . . even TP is still $50. >_>

Fredescu said:
Super Paper Mario pales in comparison to Mario Galaxy. We didn't have to wait for NSMBW sales to find out that not all Mario titles are equal.
This.
 
Tiktaalik said:
I'd love to see a bizarro return to the age of SNES/Genny mascot platformers.:D

Don't say it out loud! You might jinx it.

timetokill said:
It's good, but I think (and have argued in other threads) you should read Blue Ocean Strategy if you're interested in understanding what Nintendo is doing in particular.

BOS is a much much more accessible book than The Innovator's Dilemma. It's like Harry Potter vs LOTR; The Innovator's Dilemma is just very dense. I think it's the better business book, though. Although I agree that BOS will tell you more about Nintendo.

Fredescu said:
Was this really a sacred cow? The majority of people expected NSMBW to outsell Galaxy.

I think it was. If you go back to threads around the time Reggie was making his bet (or Media Create threads right before the first sales data came in), a lot of gafers were suggesting that NSMB would only do as well as Galaxy. NSMB DS was dismissed as an example because it was on a handheld. I remember a lot of gaffers bristling at the idea of NSMB Wii doing much better than Galaxy; there are even some bitter tears in this thread.
 

mugwhump

Member
radioheadrule83 said:
Bullshit. The wii userbase is simple - it wants good games or a good deal. Third parties may well be as deluded as you are, thinking that the audience just doesn't want the kind of games they are capable of making, but the truth is Wii owners have just been very discerning.


Wii Sports is some of the most fun you can have with the Wii console. 50m+ sold. Third party response? Cheap clones that even from a glance at the box, look like exactly that. The people who made Carnival Games and Deca Sports were lucky to do as well as they did.

Wii Play - cheap collection of minigames, thats only worth the price because it comes with a free remote - its basically the best way to get a second remote. 24m+ sold. Third party response? DERRRRP, I think they want minigame collections.

Wii Fit - a videogame that is marketed to capture people in the market for an impulsive self improvement fad or genuinely want to try and exercise and self-improve. Been done before on PS2 and countless other consoles, but never with a gimmick as clever as the balance board. 22m+ sold. Third party response? Cheap clones, but in some cases, clever takes on the idea -- such as EA Active and Ubisoft's Just Dance.

Mario Kart Wii - a fun online kart racing experience. 18m+ sold. Third party response? I can't even think of one. Car Vault? No Gamecube games sold this well btw. This is comparable to GTA San Andreas and GT3: A-Spec level success.

Super Mario Galaxy and New Super Mario Bros Wii - platforming games in both their freshest and old-school forms. Both 8m+ sold. Third party response? A port of Klonoa, and a Rabbids game where you push another Rabbid around in a trolley - which on the face of it could probably sound just as bad to people as FLUDD did last gen. And whats worse its came out after Ubisoft confusing the brand with several Rabbids minigame compilations. Thankfully, Capcom recognise the platform market potential with Megaman 9 and 10, and you could argue that A Boy and his Blob and a few other titles fit the bill as well.


I'm still not quite sure why third parties decided Wii would be suitable for an on-rails shooter revolution. Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles sold over a million, but did no one stop to consider that maybe the brand itself confused quite a few people into buying it after playing the sublime Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition, and the RE games before it? Don't get me wrong, REUC was decent -- but I'm not sure very many Wii owners out there were clamoring for a sequel, or Dead Space Extraction, or House of the Dead or Ghost Squad etc. Was it just the IR functionality that prompted this, or was it a cheap way to spit out a game?

There are colossal gaps in the Wii's library that no-one has actually tried to fill. When I list games on other systems in the coming paragraph, don't misunderstand me as being someone who wants games in that franchise, or games of that graphical fidelity on the Wii. I'm not stupid. And I have a PS3, so I couldn't actually care less about getting them on the Wii. I am however perplexed that powerful publishing entities haven't stepped up to try and fill a need on the console, that those titles fill on the HD twins.

For starters - no one has tried to put a truly high caliber FPS or TPS out. Metroid Prime Corruption can hardly be called an FPS - but its the best one on the system. The next best thing on the system is Conduit - created by a developer that previously made bank by producing Barbie games. Meanwhile the HD twins have Resistance, Killzone, Halo, Gears of War, up to date Call of Duty entries, the online masterpiece Warhawk... fair enough the FPS genre has always used the latest and greatest graphics engines, and a lot of the third person games I mentioned there thrive on their ridiculously good looks too. So maybe the absence of equivalents on the Wii isn't all that surprising. What about other genres that Nintendo doesn't fill? Non-Smash-style fighting games? Capcom vs Tatsunoko and Dragonball games. Is that it? What about third person action adventure games? Entries in franchises like Prince of Persia or Tomb Raider are tailing off, and new franchises like Assassins Creed are built with the more powerful systems in mind. There's no God of War, Bayonetta or Darksiders style games heading to the Wii.. Mad World and NMH are probably as close as Wii owners can get to that. What about arcade racing and sim racing? Flight games -- weren't the Rogue Squadron games obscenely popular on the Gamecube? A decent Star Wars game on the Wii at all would be a good idea.

I was a big fan of PSO on the Gamecube, and I would have liked to have seen a game like that on the Wii, but no-one has really attempted it. People blame the crap online system on the Wii for that, but come on, the Gamecube was even more crippled. I would have liked to have seen a decent RTS, or a game that controls with a pointer the way WoW can be controlled with a mouse.

I just can't help but feel that for Nintendo - the Wii is the first console in two generations where they're really capitalising on everything they do -- while third parties just stack up the missed opportunities.


Ultimately I get the feeling third parties have decided that cross platform development on the other two platforms is more important than development on the single platform with the largest market share. That *might* be whats best for them, and that *might* be why we've been seeing what we've seen this generation with regards to Nintendo support. In a sense, lowballing the graphical capability and introducing a new control method was a double edged sword for Nintendo. Had they had these kind of sales, been graphically on par with the other two and the other two had jumped on the motion bandwagon as they will do this year -- then Nintendo would probably have better support. The thing is, they couldn't have achieved these sales without powering and positioning the Wii exactly as they did... so its all moot. We are where we are.
Good post. We'll see how things go with MH3 and Red Steel 2 next year. Though it might be too late for things to turn around.
 

BowieZ

Banned
Fredescu said:
Super Paper Mario pales in comparison to Mario Galaxy. We didn't have to wait for NSMBW sales to find out that not all Mario titles are equal.
Well, yeah. Good point.


Correct me if I'm way off here, or missing something -- NSMBW:

1a- Genre staple - check

2a- Strong word-of-mouth/perceived quality - check
2b- Decent-to-outstanding critical reception - check
2c- Appeals to wide audiences ("hardcore," "family," "traditional," "casual," "new," "renaissance") - check

3a- Attractive/familiar front cover - check

4a- Massive ad campaign - check
4b- Well targeted ad campaign - check
4c- Recognizable IP/music in ad campaign - check

5a- Familiar/trusted brand/name/IP ("Mario," "Wii," "Bros.," "New," "Super") - check x5


I would argue that Mario Galaxy and Super Paper Mario suffered in a few of these categories and that's why their sales suffered in kind, although invariably their sales would have been stronger released today with Wii's greater install base.

But yeah, 5a alone is not the sole reason for Wii sales success

Third parties haven't seemed to bother to cultivate strong and familiar brands/IPs over the years (or if so, have suffered trust issues with weak ports and minigame collections in the process), so a concession can be made for category 5a, but what excuses do they have for the other categories?
 

AniHawk

Member
PS2 20,150,000 (38 months) (November 2003)
PS2 25,902,000 (50 months) (November 2004)

Xbox - 11,711,402 (38 months) (December 2004)
Xbox - 13,490,000 (50 months) (December 2005)

GCN - 9,163,241 (38 months) (December 2004)
GCN - 12,252,000 (50 months) (December 2005)

360 13,697,000 (38 months) (December 2008)
360 18,630,986 (50 months) (December 2009)

PS3 11,128,696 (38 months) (December 2009)

Wii 27,134,881 (38 months) (December 2009)

So the PS3 is now leaving the Gamecube in the dust and is well on track to start outpacing the original Xbox. The 360 is closing in on the N64's American LTD sales and will overtake them quite easily in 2010. The Wii is over a year ahead of the PS2 at this point.

And as far as LTD sales go, I think the DS has either beat, or will soon beat total GBA sales. The GBA had only a very short time to live though.
 

Jaruru

Member
holy WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
everybody's been surprised and surprised... and surprised about how well this console been selling so far. it repeats the DS's history.

I think even Nintendo themselves didn't expect the HUGE boost by NSMBWii, but they know they made a great Mario title.
 

AniHawk

Member
BruceLeeRoy said:
AniHawk you were in my redneck home town! You should have called me we could gotten a classy dinner at the Nugget and thrown stuff off the 395 overpass.

It's a Simpsons quote and I butchered it.

I've been in Reno for six weeks. Did I miss anything?
Is the real thing. And he doesn't say "hey hey," he laughs.

I'm so sorry.
 

Trevelyan

Banned
BruceLeeRoy said:
AniHawk you were in my redneck home town! You should have called me we could gotten a classy dinner at the Nugget and thrown stuff off the 395 overpass.



I thought it did sell a million?
Wait, BLR, you're also in Reno?! Holy shit, we need to do something, I didn't think there was anyone in this place. :lol :lol

Back on topic, good numbers for all. Pretty happy to see Uncharted 2 cross the million mark. Now i must go back to playing.
 
AniHawk said:
And as far as LTD sales go, I think the DS has either beat, or will soon beat total GBA sales. The GBA had only a very short time to live though.

Nintendo's Press Release said they did.

Nintendo said:
Lifetime U.S. sales for Wii have now surpassed 27.2 million units. No other home console has ever sold so many so quickly. Lifetime U.S. sales for the Nintendo DS franchise have topped 38.8 million units, surpassing lifetime sales of the Game Boy™ Advance franchise.
 
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