sangreal said:Enough with the stupid $500M number. Do you guys even know where that number comes from?
Here (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/microsoft_move_3gVmAyryJuD6px1dV7LeDP?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=):
Do you see the number $500M in there anywhere? No. So where does it come from?
Microsoft is gearing up for a massive marketing push to launch Kinect -- a controller-free Wii-killer for the Xbox -- and blow away the competition come Christmas.
Backed by a half-billion-dollar budget, the tech giant is rolling out a major movie-style marketing blitz aimed at driving its motion-sensing device to the top of holiday wish lists.
MrNyarlathotep said:Errrr... second line of the article;
amtentori said:Be ready for games to feel extra difficult if games start being designed with the pointer in mind.
sangreal said:Very good, now tell us where the reporter got that figure from.
Hint: She tells us later in the article and I already quoted it.
I think this bears repeating.Haunted said:I said you all are arguing along a scale.
The 500 million marketing budget:
Did not matter <---------------> is the sole reason for success.
The two extremes are literally the only indefensible positions in this argument, that's why both groups are attempting to peg the other as saying this.
sangreal said:Enough with the stupid $500M number. Do you guys even know where that number comes from?
Here (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/microsoft_move_3gVmAyryJuD6px1dV7LeDP?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=):
Do you see the number $500M in there anywhere? No. So where does it come from?
Okay, so it is 'bigger' than the launch of the Xbox. How does that turn into $500M? The NYPost gets that figure from:
Okay, so Microsoft spent more than $500M launching the Xbox including subsidies. However, let us pretend that they really did spend $500M entirely on advertising to launch the X-box and that they are spending more on advertising to launch the Kinect. What does launch mean in this context? Let us go back to 2000 and find out:
http://news.cnet.com/Microsoft-to-spend-500-million-on-Xbox-launch/2100-1040_3-243763.html
So in short, this entire $500M bullshit comes from the fact that Robbie Bach said in 2000 that he could see them spending half a billion dollars over 18 months to launch the X-box, and someone said recently that the Kinect launch will be bigger than the X-box.
Also, pay no attention to the massive Windows Phone 7 marketing campaign which didn't generate Kinect numbers
Karma said:Dont see that happening for a very long time.
That article has been quoted several times in this thread. People are getting pretty desperate to downplay that marketing budget. I guess they see it as an attack on the quality of the device, which is why I quoted Haunted's post. This is rarely anyone's position.Paco said:Thanks for this, I didn't know the origins of the number.
amtentori said:fps and other 'core' genres are usually showcases of graphical fidelity, online MP is popular, etc so #3 is probably the most important.
phisheep said:I won't rise to the bait on your earlier point - sure others will do that.
Fredescu said:That article has been quoted several times in this thread. People are getting pretty desperate to downplay that marketing budget. I guess they see it as an attack on the quality of the device, which is why I quoted Haunted's post. This is rarely anyone's position.
There are different sides to every argument.Fredescu said:That article has been quoted several times in this thread. People are getting pretty desperate to downplay that marketing budget. I guess they see it as an attack on the quality of the device, which is why I quoted Haunted's post. This is rarely anyone's position.
shintoki said:This isn't a discredit at Kinect, but 500mil will sell just about anything.
shintoki said:
FINALFANTASYDOG said:Your premise really tries to negate many principles of fashion/marketing research. From what I see, it seems you are equating advertising to only about be about informing.
charlequin said:The undercurrent of every comment where the marketing budget is brought up is the idea that people are being misled or tricked by this marketing expenditure, but the Kinect marketing is actually quite straightforward in terms of what the product provides (certainly no one is being fooled on that level) and the post-purchase reactions we've received to date certainly suggest that even the implicit aspect where the advertisements promise people "fun" are not inaccurate. As such, it's really hard for me to see the relevance of the marketing budget at all in any context besides "this shows that Microsoft was fully committed to this product" -- it's certainly not an interesting factor to discuss in terms of the product's success.
exactly. yes, they marketed the hell out of the product, but what they showed was the actual product. they didn't advertise any capability that it didn't have, and if you look carefully in the bits that show people moving at the same time as onscreen footage, you can even see the slight lag.charlequin said:The undercurrent of every comment where the marketing budget is brought up is the idea that people are being misled or tricked by this marketing expenditure, but the Kinect marketing is actually quite straightforward in terms of what the product provides (certainly no one is being fooled on that level) and the post-purchase reactions we've received to date certainly suggest that even the implicit aspect where the advertisements promise people "fun" are not inaccurate. As such, it's really hard for me to see the relevance of the marketing budget at all in any context besides "this shows that Microsoft was fully committed to this product" -- it's certainly not an interesting factor to discuss in terms of the product's success.
If you want to dispel the ridiculous notion of "$500m = instant mega-success", just point to Windows Phone 7. It too had a $500m marketing budget, and the only result that Microsoft was willing to release? 1.5 million handsets sold... to carriers and retailers. While not a failure, its launch was not exactly lighting up the charts, and it still faces an uphill battle against Android and iOS.charlequin said:The undercurrent of every comment where the marketing budget is brought up is the idea that people are being misled or tricked by this marketing expenditure, but the Kinect marketing is actually quite straightforward in terms of what the product provides (certainly no one is being fooled on that level) and the post-purchase reactions we've received to date certainly suggest that even the implicit aspect where the advertisements promise people "fun" are not inaccurate. As such, it's really hard for me to see the relevance of the marketing budget at all in any context besides "this shows that Microsoft was fully committed to this product" -- it's certainly not an interesting factor to discuss in terms of the product's success.
Opiate said:I'm very eager to see 360's hardware sales in Jan-June: obviously they'll be down compared to Christmas, but I'd be interested to see how they compare YoY. If 360 hardware sales are significantly up over last year at the same time (say, by a double digit percentage), then I think it's fair to say that Kinect is sustaining growth of the 360 brand over time, even once the marketing explosion ceases.
I'd love to."if people seriously want to break down why Kinect's marketing campaign worked and Move's campaign didn't i'd happily engage in that discussion, but no one seems interested in it."
JJConrad said:For comparison, Just Dance 2 would have sold over 2 million (probably somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million), and both those Kinect games were outsold by Michael Jackson's Experience and Udraw. In December 2009 Wii Fit Plus sold 2.4 million and Wii Sports Resort (Motion Plus) sold 1.8 million.
Yeah, Wii's first Holiday is a much more appropriate comparison.Basileus777 said:That's a rather pointless comparison considering the vast difference in install base between the Wii and Kinect.
Just Dance and Michael Jackson are mentioned because of the praise Dance Central's sales seems to receiving. It was only the 3rd best selling dance game. Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and Udraw are all accessories in this motion-controller debate and are fair comparisons.Basileus777 said:That's a rather pointless comparison considering the vast difference in install base between the Wii and Kinect.
JJConradJJConrad said:Just Dance and Michael Jackson are mentioned because of the praise Dance Central's sales seems to receiving. It was only the 3rd best selling dance game. Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and Udraw are all accessories in this motion-controller debate and are fair comparisons.
JJConrad said:Just Dance and Michael Jackson are mentioned because of the praise Dance Central's sales seems to receiving. It was only the 3rd best selling dance game. Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and Udraw are all accessories in this motion-controller debate and are fair comparisons.
I agree, but I don't think we ever get enough information to really know. MS will only give shipped numbers and are already using a shortage excuse and then hardware and accessory numbers are split and we never get an actual number are either.Opiate said:I strongly agree with Charlequin. I would add this: the best evidence for/against the relevance of marketing will be long term success.
Products that have legs may or may not have had large advertising budgets at their launch: what they commonly share is strong word of mouth among purchasing consumers. In fact, if word of mouth is non-existant or negative, this typically has the opposite effect: sales are stunted and slow to a trickle rather rapidly.
Thus far -- mostly anecdotally -- Kinect seems to have strong word of mouth and very positive consumer response. If that holds, then Kinect should continue to sell well in to the new year.
If you're looking for evidence that Kinect is driven by product quality, long term sales are likely the best evidence you'll get. That's not absolute and conclusive evidence (what ever is?) but it's fairly strong evidence in an otherwise completely unquantifiable field. I'm very eager to see 360's hardware sales in Jan-June: obviously they'll be down compared to Christmas, but I'd be interested to see how they compare YoY. If 360 hardware sales are significantly up over last year at the same time (say, by a double digit percentage), then I think it's fair to say that Kinect is sustaining growth of the 360 brand over time, even once the marketing explosion ceases.
This is a excellent post and should rightfully be quoted.charlequin said:I'm taking a holistic view of product and marketing as inextricably intertwined rather than one in which they're entirely unrelated. Yes, quite a bit of marketing is devoted to implicit claims of specific emotional or social benefits to a product that are abstract and unverifiable ("it's fun! it'll make you cool!" etc.) but ultimately, the marketing message for a product originates with the product itself. Kinect's marketing is all about convincing people that they'll have fun with their family by buying one, but the marketing message is conveyed by showing people what sort of things they'll do with the product (and, rather importantly, by providing a lot of hands-on opportunities for people to try these things themselves.)
The undercurrent of every comment where the marketing budget is brought up is the idea that people are being misled or tricked by this marketing expenditure, but the Kinect marketing is actually quite straightforward in terms of what the product provides (certainly no one is being fooled on that level) and the post-purchase reactions we've received to date certainly suggest that even the implicit aspect where the advertisements promise people "fun" are not inaccurate. As such, it's really hard for me to see the relevance of the marketing budget at all in any context besides "this shows that Microsoft was fully committed to this product" -- it's certainly not an interesting factor to discuss in terms of the product's success.
So can GAF beat all the videogame analysts? Even those not as bad as Pachter?Bloggers thrash Apple analysts at predicting stuff
Rob Beschizza at 12:15 PM Wednesday, Jan 19, 2011
Quoting analysts is a common way to make tech news look less driven by opinion or corporate PR: the analyst gets identified as an expert and the reporter gets a second source. But the deal is a rotten one, because analysts often seem no more aware of industry goings-on than the reporters who quote them.
Now, if that were true, you'd expect some objective survey of professional analysts' predictions to come out no better than that of bloggers. Perhaps a couple of brilliant ones would kick ass and justify the herd's status as dispensers of wisdom for media and investors.
Turns out that the pros are, according to Fortune, almost all worse than amateurs. The difference is so stark it can hardly be accounted for by chance: either Fortune's methodology was contrived to make them look bad, or professional analysts have a systematic bias toward saying things that turn out to be inaccurate.
Busaiku said:Some numbers/info from Invisible Walls again.
100 games sold over 100k.
13 Wii games in top 30.
8 360 games in top 30.
5 PS3 games in top 30
4 DS games in top 30.
3 PSP games in top 200.
No Move games in the top 30.
3 or 4 Kinect games in top 30.
Just Dance 2 - ~2 million
Donkey Kong Country Returns - 1.344 million
Super Mario All Stars - ~500k
God of War Ghost of Sparta - About 100k-150k/roughly 10% as much as Chains of Olympus's first 2 months
GBA - 42
GCN - 2
DS - 2,512,317
PS2 - 75,428
PS3 - 1,209,660
PSP - 428,566
Wii - 2,355,151
X-Box - 0
360 - 1,856,438
Busaiku said:GCN - 2
X-Box - 0
Busaiku said:Some numbers/info from Invisible Walls again.
100 games sold over 100k.
13 Wii games in top 30.
8 360 games in top 30.
5 PS3 games in top 30
4 DS games in top 30.
3 PSP games in top 200.
God of War Ghost of Sparta - About 100k-150k/roughly 10% as much as Chains of Olympus's first 2 months
Busaiku said:Some numbers/info from Invisible Walls again.
100 games sold over 100k
I don't understand this, is it just like some out in the middle of nowhere 42 new GBA and 2 new GCN's have been sitting on shelves for 5-6 years and they somehow finally got purchased?Busaiku said:GBA - 42
GCN - 2
FINALFANTASYDOG said:That's good
I don't understand this, is it just like some out in the middle of nowhere 42 new GBA and 2 new GCN's have been sitting on shelves for 5-6 years and they somehow finally got purchased?
So is Ready at Dawn dead? hdear:Busaiku said:God of War Ghost of Sparta - About 100k-150k/roughly 10% as much as Chains of Olympus's first 2 months
Metal Gear?! said:So is Ready at Dawn dead? hdear:
Great breakdown, thanks.Busaiku said:Some numbers/info from Invisible Walls again.
100 games sold over 100k.
13 Wii games in top 30.
8 360 games in top 30.
5 PS3 games in top 30
4 DS games in top 30.
3 PSP games in top 200.
No Move games in the top 30.
3 or 4 Kinect games in top 30.
Just Dance 2 - ~2 million
Donkey Kong Country Returns - 1.344 million
Super Mario All Stars - ~500k
God of War Ghost of Sparta - About 100k-150k/roughly 10% as much as Chains of Olympus's first 2 months
GBA - 42
GCN - 2
DS - 2,512,317
PS2 - 75,428
PS3 - 1,209,660
PSP - 428,566
Wii - 2,355,151
X-Box - 0
360 - 1,856,438
What I was wondering, maybe they are considering the quantities bundled with the hardware ...DarkMehm said:How can 100-150k be 10% of what CoO did in 2 months? I doubt it did 1 - 1.5 million in that time period.
Deady at Dawn created God of War: Ghost of Sparta. I doubt they will go under._Alkaline_ said:Deady at Dawn?
No Move games in the top 30.
Dabanton said:Now that's just embarrassing.
TheOddOne said:Deady at Dawn created God of War: Ghost of Sparta. I doubt they will go under.
Yeah, it'd make more sense if it were 10% of CoO's LTD or another percentage (CoO sold ~400k in the first two months).DarkMehm said:How can 100-150k be 10% of what CoO did in 2 months? I doubt it did 1 - 1.5 million in that time period.