I simply do not see the 360 making it to next holiday season.
Kinect has NOTHING going for it right now other than the novelty, NO GAMES AT ALL.
At least when the Wii was selling record numbers with casual crap there were always at least a COUPLE hardcore games being released every once in a while, and THOSE games are what made the Wii continue to sell until 2010.
Kinect, as far as I can see, doesn't have any of that. It doesn't have a Twilight Princess, a Mario Galaxy, a Metroid Prime, a No More Heroes, a Medal of Honor, or Donky Kong, nothing. I realize I'm naming a lot of first party stuff here, but the fact stands that the Wii had hardcore games to sustain between casual buying periods.
Kinect doesn't.