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[Ryng_tolu]

This is a nation wide price drop, not a deal at one retailer that only worked if you sold your 360 or PS3 (and only recent models of those gave the full discount price). A price drop will not do less than that GS deal.

Not really apples to apples, but the Xbox received a $30 price drop to $149 from $179 on March 31, 2004 (final week of March) and went from selling 198k in March to selling 297k in April.

The Drop MOM March - April is increased a lot those years, so imo a 2004 comparation isn't very fair.

And let's Forget Price. In my comment i also mentioned Software.
Last year in term of Software Mortal Kombat was bigger than Battlefield.
Dark Souls 3 will be lucky to Sell 1/5 of Division...

I really don't see a weekly avg Close to March, imo. April 2015 scenario is not gonna happen again in my opinion.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Also Welfare, Can You include DS ans 3DS in that weekly Sales comment? Should be Nice since we predict 3DS as well.

If You won't, i Can do it.

 

[slavesnyder]

So, one of the most obvious things that could happen surrounding the PS4 is on Kotaku and the world implodes.

They should call it PS4U

Would be fun to doublecheck opinions about this move with comments people gave for Xbox1.5.

At least, newPS4 has the obvious advantage that the VR brick will be implemented.

 

[Unknown?]

I don't think the price drop will do much, it'll just stop the gap from getting huge. PS has lots of upcoming blockbuster exclusives for the next several months with lots of good press from VR.

 

[orochi91]

So now that the PS4.5 news is spreading on the internet, do you folks think that there will there be any appreciable effect on PS4 sales going forward?

 

[Rymuth]

So, one of the most obvious things that could happen surrounding the PS4 is on Kotaku and the world implodes.

Curious if you knew beforehand or just sussed it out.

Wonder if this thread will be a lot of fun to revisit after E3.

I took note of this quote when you said it back then.

 

[Exterminieren]

If the NX is hitting this holiday, and the mooted PlayStation and XBox revamps are happening this year, this holiday is going to be insane.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Curious if you knew beforehand or just sussed it out.

I took note of this quote when you said it back then.

Once CES hit, and the push of 4k TVs was so intense, and having Sony being a primary mfg of 4k TVs, and looking at Morpheus, and seeing that it needed an add on box, the most logical next step would be a PS4 device that supported 4k and VR in a more convenient way that could also be used to buoy average selling prices.

When people get over the initial surprise and see what it most likely is (marginal upgrade for the super enthusiast, 4k, VR early adopter crowd) then people will see it as a "well of course they'd do that" thing. I have no firsthand knowledge of the thing.

Would be fun to doublecheck opinions about this move with comments people gave for Xbox1.5.

Already saw a few posters in that thread saying this is not a big deal that were arguing with me calling me an idiot about the same darn thing back in January. Good times.

 

[slavesnyder]

If the NX is hitting this holiday, and the mooted PlayStation and XBox revamps are happening this year, this holiday is going to be insane.

Especially for people planning stock and shelf space.
We will have (for playstation alone)
PS4
NewPS4
PSVR with brick
PSVR without brick
PSVR with brick with camera
PSVR without brick with camera
PSVR with brick with camera with move
PSVR without brick with camera with move
NewPS4 + VR bundle
PS4 + VR bundle
...
And we have not even included bundles featuring games.

I give up. Copy and paste on iPad is awful.

 

[Welfare]

Also Welfare, Can You include DS ans 3DS in that weekly Sales comment? Should be Nice since we predict 3DS as well.

If You won't, i Can do it.

I don't care for handheld sales, so go ahead.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I don't care for handheld sales, so go ahead.

[U]2010[/U]

DS February 2010: 613K / 4 = 153,250
DS March 2010: 701K / 5 = 140,200

weekly average down 9%

[U]2011[/U]

DS February: 457K / 4 = 114,250
DS March: 460K / 5 = 92,000

weekly average down 19%

[U]2012[/U]

3DS February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
3DS March: 225K / 5 = 45,000

weekly average down 31%

[B]2013[/B]

3DS February: 189K / 4 = 47,250
3DS March: 230K / 5 = 46,000

weekly average down 3%

[B]2014[/B]

3DS February: 153K / 4 = 38,250
3DS March: 159K / 5 = 31,800

weekly average down 17%

[B]2015[/B]

3DS February: 395K / 4 = 98,750
3DS March: 263K / 5 = 52,600

weekly average down 47%

2016 February Weekly averages

3DS: 176K / 4 = 44,000

March 2010: Pokémon Gold/Silver = 1.78 million
March 2011: Pokémon Black/White = 2.40 million / 3DS launch month
March 2015: New 3DS launch

 

[allan-bh]

I was thinking here, Microsoft has a shot for changing the current dynamic of the market if this rumours of new models with better HW are true.

They need to make the new Xbox One more powerful than the new PS4 and sell for the same price.

 

[Asd202]

I was thinking here, Microsoft has a shot for changing the current dynamic of the market if this rumours of new models with more powerful HW are true.

They need to make the new Xbox One more powerful than the new PS4 and sell for the same price.

Won't they have to keep the eSRAM for BC?

 

[John Harker]

TOP 5 BIGGER LAUNCH GAMES ON XBOX ONE (NPD)

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 1,935,000
2) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - 1,460,000
3) Fallout 4 - 1,274,000
4) Titanfall - 1,083,000
5) Halo 5 - 935,000

Where will The Division chart? I will go with #4, not as big as Fallout 4, but bigger than Titanfall.

Is that launch month only? I don't recal offhand

It'll be interesting with cod going space, division really being the only "modern" big shooter this year if that helps it

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Is that launch month only? I don't recal offhand

It'll be interesting with cod going space, division really being the only "modern" big shooter this year if that helps it

Yes only first month.

I predict 2.50 million for The Division with PS4 at 52% and XB1 at 48%. So 1.20 million for XBO is my guess.

Weekly average wise, March to April 2001 through 2007, was around a 20% drop on average. 2004 in particular, the PS2 average fell 20% and the Gamecube fell 26%, while the Xbox rose 88%. That's big! Just to compare to 2003, PS2 fell 18%, Gamecube 23%, and Xbox 4%. (Only notable thing in April for the XBX, which shouldn't even affect sales was that nice as fuck demo disk that contained Apex, Halo, Splinter Cell, and some other games).

On the software side, I don't think those games mattered at all for XB1 sales. Software sales can be good, while hardware can sell less. I mean, in GTA 4 month, the 360 sold 188k, and then in April 2009, the 360 sold 175k, and that month had nothing that could compete with GTA 4, yet hardware sales difference was 7%.

A price drop is going to do more to console sales than software will. If this price drop can't help stir up sales, that is a serious issue.

I recently revisited my NPD sales archive and yeah, i thought the MOM drop was smaller than recently... Huum, yeah i was wong here.

About GTA month, yes, the difference isn't big 2009 to 2008 in April, but look the others months.

January: 230,000 VS 309,000 (up YOY by 35%)
February: 255,000 VS 391,000 (up YOY by 53%)
March: 262,000 VS 330,000 (up YOY by 26%)

Then it was down YOY by 7% during the GTA IV month. So, guess it helped a bit.

But even if it didn't, well some case they help some case they don't... hard to understand how the market is. What i think is that The Division will help a bit (not an insane boost, just a bit) both PS4 and XB1 to not drop hardly this march compared to February.

But i also fell like that i don't see why in April that pricedrop will help SO MUCH more than in March... i mean, March has still 2 weeks no?

Well, guess we will see at this point, we can discuss for hours about this withouth a conclusion. But yeah for now, i don't see XB1 to get close to the march avg. this April.

Let's say, i don't know... a 20% weekly decrease. That's far better than the usual drop of this gen. PS4 avg. drop is in the -35% territory, same with Wii U in 2013 and 2015 (dunno why in 2014 the drop was only 15%).

 

[Welfare]

The Drop MOM March - April is increased a lot those years, so imo a 2004 comparation isn't very fair.

And let's Forget Price. In my comment i also mentioned Software.
Last year in term of Software Mortal Kombat was bigger than Battlefield.
Dark Souls 3 will be lucky to Sell 1/5 of Division...

I really don't see a weekly avg Close to March, imo. April 2015 scenario is not gonna happen again in my opinion.

Weekly average wise, March to April 2001 through 2007, was around a 20% drop on average. 2004 in particular, the PS2 average fell 20% and the Gamecube fell 26%, while the Xbox rose 88%. That's big! Just to compare to 2003, PS2 fell 18%, Gamecube 23%, and Xbox 4%. (Only notable thing in April for the XBX, which shouldn't even affect sales was that nice as fuck demo disk that contained Apex, Halo, Splinter Cell, and some other games).

On the software side, I don't think those games mattered at all for XB1 sales. Software sales can be good, while hardware can sell less. I mean, in GTA 4 month, the 360 sold 188k, and then in April 2009, the 360 sold 175k, and that month had nothing that could compete with GTA 4, yet hardware sales difference was 7%.

A price drop is going to do more to console sales than software will. If this price drop can't help stir up sales, that is a serious issue.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Especially for people planning stock and shelf space.
We will have (for playstation alone)
PS4
NewPS4
PSVR with brick
PSVR without brick
PSVR with brick with camera
PSVR without brick with camera
PSVR with brick with camera with move
PSVR without brick with camera with move
NewPS4 + VR bundle
PS4 + VR bundle
...
And we have not even included bundles featuring games.

I give up. Copy and paste on iPad is awful.

There's only two SKUs of the PSVR. By 'brick' do you mean the breakout box that's going to come in any configuration of the PSVR unit. How are you figuring this?

 

[J_Viper]

Won't they have to keep the eSRAM for BC?

BC has been such a bummer so far, I really don't think most would mind losing it in exchange for superior hardware.

 

[CosmicQueso]

There's only two SKUs of the PSVR. By 'brick' do you mean the breakout box that's going to come in any configuration of the PSVR unit. How are you figuring this?

Exponential growth.

 

[Javin98]

Once CES hit, and the push of 4k TVs was so intense, and having Sony being a primary mfg of 4k TVs, and looking at Morpheus, and seeing that it needed an add on box, the most logical next step would be a PS4 device that supported 4k and VR in a more convenient way that could also be used to buoy average selling prices.

When people get over the initial surprise and see what it most likely is (marginal upgrade for the super enthusiast, 4k, VR early adopter crowd) then people will see it as a "well of course they'd do that" thing. I have no firsthand knowledge of the thing.

If the PS4.5 is only an incremental upgrade that runs PS4 games in 4K or 1080/60, I'm totally cool with that actually. Hopefully, Sony doesn't make the same mistake as Nintendo and make it mandatory for devs to release every game on the OG PS4 as well.

However, I'm wondering what kind of GPU upgrade we will be seeing. Based on The Division DF thread yesterday, you would need something close to a GTX 970 to run it at 1080/60 at around PS4 settings.

 

[mejin]

I was thinking here, Microsoft has a shot for changing the current dynamic of the market if this rumours of new models with better HW are true.

They need to make the new Xbox One more powerful than the new PS4 and sell for the same price.

I don't think so. The only fair shot for Microsoft is Sony shooting themselves in the foot.

Sony continues to focus on their market with better partnerships and a stronger first party lineups + console exclusives. Playstation brand worldwide is as solid as it can be which is pretty much the opposite situation for Xbox.

 

[Bgamer90]

I was thinking here, Microsoft has a shot for changing the current dynamic of the market if this rumours of new models with better HW are true.

They need to make the new Xbox One more powerful than the new PS4 and sell for the same price.

They can possibly change how things are in the Xbox brand's strongest markets. Don't think they would be able to worldwide though.

I could see some feeling that Sony focused too much on "VR gimmicks" if an "Xbox One.5" had better specs than a "PS4.5"; And as I said before, Holiday 2015 proved that there are people who care far more about multiplats than overall exclusive game lineups.

Poor NX though -- all of these rumors are already eating into the interest of the system and it hasn't even been revealed yet.

 

[slavesnyder]

There's only two SKUs of the PSVR. By 'brick' do you mean the breakout box that's going to come in any configuration of the PSVR unit. How are you figuring this?

IF there will be a PS4.5 they might make it powerful enough that you don't need the breakout box.
So, there should be the opportunity to buy VR without it. And this is where it gets messy.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

reading more calmly the kotaku thread, how much do you think this news is gonna affect sales for the incoming moths? (until it materializes or not)

 

[demigod]

Not much. Casuals aren't going to be waiting for a new machine that'll cost hundreds more.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

reading more calmly the kotaku thread, how much do you think this news is gonna affect sales for the incoming moths? (until it materializes or not)

It won't matter. This type of stuff and the X1/Wins10 stuff isn't going to mean much to the mass market. At least not until this stuff becomes reality.

 

[Bgamer90]

reading more calmly the kotaku thread, how much do you think this news is gonna affect sales for the incoming moths? (until it materializes or not)

Not much. I do expect some people to hold off but the PS4 should still continue on doing well.

 

[CosmicQueso]

reading more calmly the kotaku thread, how much do you think this news is gonna affect sales for the incoming moths? (until it materializes or not)

Not at all. You won't even see the curve blip.

This is non-news to 95% of the mass market.

The other 5% probably already own a 4K TV and a PS4 and can't wait to upgrade to get the most of that $3k TV.

 

[slavesnyder]

It won't matter. This type of stuff and the X1/Wins10 stuff isn't going to mean much to the mass market. At least not until this stuff becomes reality.

Exactly. It's a rumour that barely someone even heard of.

 

[Sterok]

No one is buying an Xbox One because of the impending Xbox Two. No one is buying a PS4 because of a rumored PS4.5. No one is buying a 3DS or Wii U because of the looming NX. I think this is a clear sign that the Vita is about to shine.

 

[Bgamer90]

No one is buying an Xbox One because of the impending Xbox Two. No one is buying a PS4 because of a rumored PS4.5. No one is buying a 3DS or Wii U because of the looming NX. I think this is a clear sign that the Vita is about to shine.

Word. #VitaComeback

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Naruto over SFV seriously? I guess poor word of mouth really did hurt the game.

 

[Steverulez]

No one is buying an Xbox One because of the impending Xbox Two. No one is buying a PS4 because of a rumored PS4.5. No one is buying a 3DS or Wii U because of the looming NX. I think this is a clear sign that the Vita is about to shine.

Vita means life again! \o/

 

[Square2015]

LTD up to this point:
PS4 13.1m
PS3 7.3m
PS2 16.1m
PS1 7.6m

Next-gen war:

 

[KillerMan91]

lovely graphs

Love the graphs but I think you have the price drops of PS3 wrong. 40Gb model of PS3 launched already in fall 2007 with $399 price tag so first price drop should be from $599/$499 to $499/$399. Also second price drop came in the form of Slim ($399 -> $299) and that was in august 2009 so about 33 months after the launch

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Great graphs as usual, Square.

 

[Welfare]

At Gamestop, not sure about other retailers, the $50 deal lasts until April 30 http://www.gamestop.com/microsoftoffers

There is also a $100 trade in deal if you trade any slim Xbox 360/PS3 that starts today and ends April 24.

 

[slavesnyder]

At Gamestop, not sure about other retailers, the $50 deal lasts until April 30 http://www.gamestop.com/microsoftoffers

There is also a $100 trade in deal if you trade any slim Xbox 360/PS3 that starts today and ends April 24.

So, with deals like this and Uncharted stealing deals into may - xbox could take april.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

obviously clearing stock for xbox 1.5 launch in fall

 

[Welfare]

obviously clearing stock for xbox 1.5 launch in fall

And clearing stock for that Xbox One slim in June

Spoiler

Please MS, I need the equivalent of the 360S to replace this huge console.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

At Gamestop, not sure about other retailers, the $50 deal lasts until April 30 http://www.gamestop.com/microsoftoffers

There is also a $100 trade in deal if you trade any slim Xbox 360/PS3 that starts today and ends April 24.

Looks like the trade-in deal may give the XB1 a win in April. It happened last year and it was only for $75.

 

[allan-bh]

Looks like the trade-in deal may give the XB1 a win in April. It happened last year and it was only for $75.

April is not pre season anymore.

 

[Welfare]

Wii U is dead.

 

[CosmicQueso]

And clearing stock for that Xbox One slim in June

Spoiler

Please MS, I need the equivalent of the 360S to replace this huge console.

Wait. Don't you buy a console knowing you don't have to upgrade for the next 14 years? Or is that philosophy just in the 4.5 thread?

 

[kadotsu]

Wait. Don't you buy a console knowing you don't have to upgrade for the next 14 years? Or is that philosophy just in the 4.5 thread?

The consoles I buy need to stay relevant until the heat death of the universe, like the PSP and VITA. They'll still be receiving dungeon crawlers when the sun forms an iron core.

 

[Welfare]

Wait. Don't you buy a console knowing you don't have to upgrade for the next 14 years? Or is that philosophy just in the 4.5 thread?

Nintendo fans already used to 4-5 year cycles, so why can't MS and Sony fans?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Wii U is dead.

... ?

 

[Bastables]

... ?

Production of the WiiU is coming to an end http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=198908332&postcount=1

 

[Lupin the Third]

Wii U sold less than 30% of what Xbox One units in February did (or less than 20% of what PS4 sold, however you want to compare), so I'm not surprised they're trying to move onto a new gen ASAP.

 

[slavesnyder]

What do Ouya, WiiU and XboxOne have in common?

Spoiler

3 vocals