Why would anyone else jump into a shrinking market? If MS leaves no one will take thier place unless you count under powered apple tv/android consoles jumping in. The CEO is feeling pressure to ditch the xbone already so this is not good for gamers. Great for fan boys sure but horrible for those who love the hobbie. We could see the market shrunk almost in half in 1 generation.
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NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Why would anyone else jump into a shrinking market? If MS leaves no one will take thier place unless you count under powered apple tv/android consoles jumping in. The CEO is feeling pressure to ditch the xbone already so this is not good for gamers. Great for fan boys sure but horrible for those who love the hobbie. We could see the market shrunk almost in half in 1 generation.
Not harsh for juniors.
It's interesting when you look at the way we consume media in compared to 8-9 years ago. 7th gen and before gave consumers new unparalleled platforms to consume media and games.
We now have smartphones that can bring things faster to people than ever before as well as tiny little games. PC gaming has hit a stride of accessibility that hasn't been available in past. As a whole, the way we as consumers get games has completely changed.
Valkyria
Banned
And here we are, a good old fashioned meltdown.No need for walls of text trying to prove the doom of the whole industry.
Quadraphonic
Member
I don't think so. Even if he made HALF of those posts that he made, it still would have been annoying and not contributing ANYTHING to the discussion. He was out of his element.
KillerMan91
Member
It's pretty sad how many times you have to post this as people skip reasoning (looking at Taurus). MS and Sony are basically doing the same as they always have. Nintendo not so much.
Hidden One
Member
Had to see it in gif form.
LOL
pieatorium
Member
Not dying but anything other than a sales explosion will only lead to more homogenization of software and less risks on the AAA front. It's gotten to a point I can't be excited about Mirror's Edge 2 because of potential design changes and there is almost nothing PS4/XBO exclusive released or announced that appeals to me.
Both Nintendo and Sony are likely to revert to be single platform holders in the future. Publishers are shifting resources toward mobile.
It's over, the future of a healthy gaming space has PC indie written all over it.
Dragonborn
Member
MS will sink or swim dude, it's no one's responsibility but their own. Sure, it sucks that the market will shrink but that's just the way it works. They made the decisions, they are to blame, and they have to turn things around. Saying they Have to sell well just because is absurd. They should feel the repercussions of their actions and hopefully come out better for it next gen.
Believe or not, PS4 is supply constrained. And no, wii didn't sell 400K+ numbers in first Jan.
Petrae
Member
Had to see it in gif form.
After a day of snowblowing and shoveling, I needed a good laugh. Well done.
Imperfected
Member
If you'd like, there are pretty good "excuses":
Sony air-freighted a significant portion of their December production into US/UK distributors to get as many consoles on the shelves over the holiday as possible. It's worth noting this does not somehow create more consoles than there would have otherwise been, it just means that consoles that would have been arriving a week or so later arrive today. That means that if you stop air-freighting, you have a "debt" of one week of production that has to be paid before your supply line normalizes again.
There is also strong evidence (NPD vs. WW numbers) that their shipments over the holidays were, for various reasons, tilted heavily toward the US/UK; probably primarily because these two countries have a larger holiday "boom" period for sales than most territories. Based on what we've heard from GAF members in places like Australia, the supply droughts in many territories are leading to waiting lists stretching into March and beyond. It's quite reasonable to assume that - if they're smart - Sony has begun to distribute their stock more evenly post-holidays to prevent such long-term shortages, especially now that in North America you can generally get one inside of a week or two if you're patient/persistent.
Add to that they are preparing for their Japanese launch - a launch in their home territory - which they are going to want to accumulate a reasonable amount of stock for. A portion of their current production is almost certainly being set aside (a few hundred thousand, at a minimum) rather than shipped to stores to ensure a large and successful Japanese launch in the coming weeks.
So, the first week of January production is basically nulled due to the air-freight. The last week is basically nulled due to stockpiling for the Japanese launch. The middle two weeks likely saw a more even split of stock between North America and other territories. You end up with less than half the number of consoles shelved in the country during the month, which is going to make your numbers plummet even if you sell through your stock instantly at retailers.
Any questions?
Neuromancer
Member
Harsh but fair
ethomaz
Banned
Ohhhhhh amazing....
Had to see it in gif form.
theprodigy
Member
Hardware Install Base, January 2007 & LTD
Playstation 2 299k, 37.4mm
Xbox --, 14.5mm
Gamecube 34k, 11.7mm
Xbox 360 294k, 4.8mm
Playstation 3 244k, 937k
Wii 436k, 1.5mm
GBA 179k, 35.3mm
Nintendo DS 239k, 9.4mm
PSP 211k, 6.9mm
try again
LegendofLex
Member
Because they have a product that meets consumer needs without overshooting them by creating a new value structure (i.e. a Wii equivalent).
googleplex
Member
LOL no. It would take about a month to port the PC version of Titanfall to the PS4(Dat time to triangle) If Titanfall fails to move fantastic numbers on the 360 and Xbone. a PS4 would happen sooner then later. It just won't be called Titainfall. It'll have some other subtitle.
Wow, my Xbone prediction was bang on lol. I do see serious potential danger for MS. The following factors count against them;
1) Higher price
2) Inferior hardware
3) Red ring fiasco(It was the core gamers that suffered so some or many of them might be put off getting an Xbox now)
4) Media momentum is on the side of Sony after the console unveilings and the backlash MS suffered
5) COD is the top FPS now, not Halo(Destiny would dilute things further)
6) They are outsold the rest of the world so automatically come second best on Japanese and European developers, US to follow and they are completely outgunned
7) Sony/Playstation brandname is superior(this time MS don't have the luxury of a year headstart and the early library of games that got them).
8) Leading on from the above, last gen many people that got the X360 last time around likely also got a PS3. This time round PS4 is the lead platform but the Xbox branding might not be strong enough to convince them to get a second HD console. With the libraries so similar it arguably in a sense almost becomes redundant having both of them on the market.
PS4 is doing well so far although in a few months time it might also start facing difficulty, partly because of the price in a weak economy and maybe partly because it's games might be too similar to the last gen and thus not enthuse customers outside the hardore to pay a premium.
1) Higher price
2) Inferior hardware
3) Red ring fiasco(It was the core gamers that suffered so some or many of them might be put off getting an Xbox now)
4) Media momentum is on the side of Sony after the console unveilings and the backlash MS suffered
5) COD is the top FPS now, not Halo(Destiny would dilute things further)
6) They are outsold the rest of the world so automatically come second best on Japanese and European developers, US to follow and they are completely outgunned
7) Sony/Playstation brandname is superior(this time MS don't have the luxury of a year headstart and the early library of games that got them).
8) Leading on from the above, last gen many people that got the X360 last time around likely also got a PS3. This time round PS4 is the lead platform but the Xbox branding might not be strong enough to convince them to get a second HD console. With the libraries so similar it arguably in a sense almost becomes redundant having both of them on the market.
PS4 is doing well so far although in a few months time it might also start facing difficulty, partly because of the price in a weak economy and maybe partly because it's games might be too similar to the last gen and thus not enthuse customers outside the hardore to pay a premium.
Ansatz, your name here on GAF, means "an initial educated guess, verified by later results".
Just seemed appropriate, given your thesis.
graywolf323
Member
someone is really impatient
Had to see it in gif form.
Amazing!!!!
SymbiantXenos
Member
Had to see it in gif form.
2AM and I just woke up the house laughing at that.
Had to see it in gif form.
This just made me spit out my water lol
fastford58
Member
Nah...he's probably from the chartz and needs his numbers for the month.
Steve Youngblood
Member
It would probably behoove one to know more about the specifics of the deal MS inked with EA before speculating about this possibility. Otherwise, we're just steering the ship into the unproductive waters of "I think Bayonetta 2 will appear on other platforms because I clearly have no idea how that game got made at all."
Vita is a bad product? I have to disagree. I don't own one, but what I know and have heard and read it's one of the best handhelds there is UNLESS you look at the software library.
PSP sold 80 million pieces and DS sold 150 million pieces. I think it's a miracle if Vita reaches 15 million and 3DS maybe... 60-70 million LTD? That is a drop that I don't want to even write here.
I understand if you don't see it that way, but I see many similarities with handheld and home console market trends.
cebri.one
Member
I don't think so, MS lawyers aren't stupid. We won't a PS4 version of TitanFall until 2015 at least.
And_Gignac
Member
Yes, it did. 436,000 in January 2007, going by NPD.
All I´m saying is that *maybe* supply is not such a big issue for the PS4 as some are hailing it to be, and that the best selling console doing such numbers could be a symptom of a market reduction for dedicated gaming consoles due to a plethora of new gadgets that werent around (or as massive) in 2006-7.
Suzushiiro
Banned
So what's this evidence that console gaming is in decline? Are sales numbers for this gen less than January-after-launch sales of the last couple of generations, or are people just talking out of their asses?
Quadraphonic
Member
Funny how the Vita is brought up so much. Sony doesn't really rely on it. It'd be nice if it sold better, but they aren't going to lose the world if they stop making it.
pieatorium
Member
yes
creamsugar
Member
I confirmed several times, but it seems I'm using correct filter.
Wii U is place at 2nd in last gen consoles this month.
Wii U is place at 2nd in last gen consoles this month.
Dude who posts just enough NPD info not to get in huge trouble. Most of his info comes in the form of rankings, general ranges, or pie charts.
Wii sold 436K in it's first Jan
Chobel
Member
He is the NPD leaker.
Randolph Freelander
Member
PS3 did that bad, huh?
theprodigy
Member
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
When is he posting?
And_Gignac
Member
Damn so Wii U>PS3 again. Bad for PS3. Fell of a cliff.
Chobel
Member
i had to reread also. but yes
shinra-bansho
Member
PS3 collapsed? Or Wii U did better than expected?
The Vita will barely reach 10M. It's a bad product for the market, in a shrinking handheld market.
If Sony and Microsoft fail to return to their traditional sales levels I would consider there to have been a more systemic shrinking in their market in the same way the handheld market has declined.
If one wants to include Nintendo's home consoles they can, but no one will contest the notion that there was a massive expansion due to the Wii and there will be a massive contraction to the Wii U.
I don't have much care for anecdotal impressions of products in the context of sales. It's a bad product for the market because it fails to attract consumers, regardless of its build quality, hardware power or the Metacritic of its software.
The Vita will barely reach 10M. It's a bad product for the market, in a shrinking handheld market.
If Sony and Microsoft fail to return to their traditional sales levels I would consider there to have been a more systemic shrinking in their market in the same way the handheld market has declined.
If one wants to include Nintendo's home consoles they can, but no one will contest the notion that there was a massive expansion due to the Wii and there will be a massive contraction to the Wii U.
Wow. This can't be right? Massive drop for gen 7 then?
Well, let's agree to disagree then and see how this pans out.
reptilescorpio
Member
Gimme dat cream, sugar.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
And I seriously did not expect One sales to drop this much, this fast. I didn't expect One's price to do this much damage. PS4 a case can be made that they would have sold more if they shipped more. I don't see anything particularly scary about the PS4 yet.
But selling 143k units with shelves filled has to at the least be a wake up call on the price for MS at the bare minimum. It had a higher start than either the Xbox or 360, but neither had this kind of dropoff.
While not the unit low WiiU saw it is most definitely a sign of concern. And something that could be truly damaging to platform in the long haul.