I think Tomb Raider was an attempt to combat Uncharted 4, it seems pretty obvious to me. It's also pretty clear to me that SE felt UC4 was in direct competition with TR, they must have felt that PS4 gamers would pick UC4 over TR so decided why not get a cash injection and sacrifice what they thought would be poor sales? It's a EU target and could work very well, especially in the UK. I recall Tomb Raider selling really well in UK, much more than Uncharted and think it was something crazy like Tomb Raider sales in UK pretty close to NA.
The only 3 exclusives coming to mind which sell consoles of note for Sony and Microsoft are Gears, Halo and GT however none have real universal appeal, Gears and Halo will push sales in NA while GT will move hardware in EU. Multiplatform as always are much more important, being on more than one system does not matter, they move systems.
That's why I feel a game like Battlefront will be so important this year, it's easily going to outsell any exclusive game this year so the question is who got the co-marketing deal for that game? I've got to guess Microsoft, that will move more consoles for MS than Quantam Break, Forza etc could ever dream of.
MS can easily beat Sony in NA but they don't stand a chance in EU and Japan, its been the case since the consoles released over a year ago.
