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NPD Sales Results for May 2016

down 2 orth

Member
Did it not sell over 1 million copies in China alone? I think it did just fine. PC is undoubtedly king for this game.

Did it? As far as I know, the vast majority of Chinese consumers are not accustomed to paying for software and usually only gravitate to FTP. I would be very surprised if they pulled those numbers, even with Activision's "arrangement" with Tencent.

The vast number of sales will be digital on the PC for OW. The NPD numbers come nowhere close to painting the whole picture with this particular game. Current estimates have it selling somewhere around 3 million copies on PC alone in a bit over a week when factoring in digital.

There's no disputing success on PC, because those players have to come from somewhere. But since all we're going with is a P.R. statement about the amount of players, and these NDP numbers, I'm guessing that Overwatch wasn't the mammoth launch that was expected. It might become a massively successful franchise, but like I said, we'll have to see how long those legs are.
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Halo 5 sold more in 1 week than Uncharted did in 3 weeks?!

Holy crap, I'd never imagine that. UC4 will have longer legs, but that blows my mind with the install base.

Unless I'm missing something.

Anyway, would we call the Overwatch numbers good? That doesn't seem like a lot...I've not really paid it much attention though, as I don't have any interest in the game.


I would argue the opposite, with the continues updates and MP community. Halo 5 probably has longer legs.
 
I would argue the opposite, with the continues updates and MP community. Halo 5 probably has longer legs.

Don't know about that, you are underestimating UC MP popularity and it's bigger WW with double the install base, chances are UC > Halo 5 in WW sales. UC4 will get updates too for a long time, just like 2 and 3.
 
Halo 5 sold more in 1 week than Uncharted did in 3 weeks?!

Holy crap, I'd never imagine that. UC4 will have longer legs, but that blows my mind with the install base.

Unless I'm missing something.

Anyway, would we call the Overwatch numbers good? That doesn't seem like a lot...I've not really paid it much attention though, as I don't have any interest in the game.

Overwatch should have the majority of its sales on PC which is not tracked here. I'd assume it'd be number 1 if they were tracked.

I would argue the opposite, with the continues updates and MP community. Halo 5 probably has longer legs.

They're both going to be bundled to hell and back so I'd say the jury is still out.
 

RexNovis

Banned
There's no disputing success on PC, because those players have to come from somewhere. But since all we're going with is a P.R. statement about the amount of players, and these NDP numbers, I'm guessing that Overwatch wasn't the mammoth launch that was expected. It might become a massively successful franchise, but like I said, we'll have to see how long those legs are.

I don't understand what you're getting at here you say "there's no disputing success on PC" bit the go on to say "Overwatch wasn't the mammoth launch that was expected." Those two statements are completely contradictory. The title was always going to sell the vast majority of copies on PC. Everybody knew that. The fact that the PC share is larger than other titles doesn't diminish the impressive figures it's accomplished especially for a new IP debuting in a historically low sales month. By all accounts it's sales are a "mammoth launch" just not at retail.
 

down 2 orth

Member
I don't understand what you're getting at here you say "there's no disputing success on PC" bit the go on to say "Overwatch wasn't the mammoth launch that was expected." Those two statements are completely contradictory. The title was always going to sell the vast majority of copies on PC. Everybody knew that. The fact that the PC share is larger than other titles doesn't diminish the impressive figures it's accomplished especially for a new IP debuting in a historically low sales month. By all accounts it's sales are a "mammoth launch" just not at retail.

Yeah, but are retail sales usually not 80% of a game's total sales? And was Overwatch not being sold at a price that was more expensive for digital units than retail units?

As for contradictions, I don't think there are any on my side. Success is determined by expectations, and I only ever brought up the expectations of Acti-Blazzard, not fellow Gaffers.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Yeah, but are retail sales usually not 80% of a game's total sales? And was Overwatch not being sold at a price that was more expensive for digital units than retail units?

Obviously not for games that are PC centric where digital far outweighs retail.

As for contradictions, I don't think there are any on my side. Success is determined by expectations, and I only ever brought up the expectations of Acti-Blazzard, not fellow Gaffers.

How would you know what Acti-Blizzard's expectations were/are?
 

Conduit

Banned
Software is up, thanks to Aquamarine on Gamrconnect / VG Chartz.

Uncharted 4: 879K (With bundle) [Bundle is less than 70K]
DOOM: 521K
OverWatch: 361K (on console, and other 50k-100k on PC)
Battleborn: over 125K, under 175K

LOL! I was way off with U4 numbers. :D
 

RexNovis

Banned
Yeah, but are retail sales usually not 80% of a game's total sales? And was Overwatch not being sold at a price that was more expensive for digital units than retail units?

As for contradictions, I don't think there are any on my side. Success is determined by expectations, and I only ever brought up the expectations of Acti-Blazzard, not fellow Gaffers.

You're attributing standard trends about retail splits to a game that has a provably disproportionate digital and PC split. You acknowledge tha game was a massive success on PC but then say it wasn't the success it was cracked up to be. How are these not contradictory statements? What exactly is your criteria for success here? Generally speaking succes is tabulated from all sales and the profits they entail not just retail sales and not just console sales.
 

down 2 orth

Member
Obviously not for games that are PC centric where digital far outweighs retail.



How would you know what Acti-Blizzard's expectations were/are?

1.) Good point, but that doesn't change the fact that we're still looking at 5-6 million units sold. And according to your evidence, one million of those were heavily discounted.

2.) I'm not sure how I would know that either? It would be ridiculous to go anywhere beyond making a simple supposition.
 

Conduit

Banned
Thanks to Aquamarine on the gamrconnect forums.

PS4 Hardware:
May 2016 NPD: 207,300 (+35.8% from last May)

XBO Hardware:
May 2016 NPD: 107,100 (-23.3% from last May)

WIU Hardware:
May 2016 NPD: 25,300 (-40.7% from last May)

360 Hardware:
May 2016 NPD: 11,900 (-53.5% from last May)

PS3 Hardware:
May 2016 NPD: 10,700 (-44.5% from last May)


Welfare, Xbone and PS4 monthly sales vs. X360/PS3 in same period? 3rd May i presume.
 
I don't know if somebody can answer this, but are there any comparisons we can make to the Uncharted 4 launch numbers? And by that I mean a relatively major, AAA game coming out in a slow period of the year and before a console a, to be reductive, died (such as years after a successor console is launched)?

I'm just trying to contextualize the numbers. I'm sure UC4 will sell at least 7-8 million, and I'm guessing it will end up selling 10+ million, but there has been a lot of discussion on how significant of a bump in hardware sales it gave the PS4 and how to qualify how meaningful it is.
 
I don't know if somebody can answer this, but are there any comparisons we can make to the Uncharted 4 launch numbers? And by that I mean a relatively major, AAA game coming out in a slow period of the year and before a console a, to be reductive, died (such as years after a successor console is launched)?

I'm just trying to contextualize the numbers. I'm sure UC4 will sell at least 7-8 million, and I'm guessing it will end up selling 10+ million, but there has been a lot of discussion on how significant of a bump in hardware sales it gave the PS4 and how to qualify how meaningful it is.

You could always compare it to TLOU, which did around 985k I believe.

UC4 numbers are similar to that, if you were to include the standard digital ratio.
 

RexNovis

Banned
1.) Good point, but that doesn't change the fact that we're still looking at 5-6 million units sold. And according to your evidence, one million of those were heavily discounted.

2.) I'm not sure how I would know that either? It would be ridiculous to go anywhere beyond making a simple supposition.

1) While the PC copies were sold for less to the end user they were purchased from Blizzards own store front meaning they get 100% of the paid cost instead of whatever lesser split they get from copies sold at retail. Thus the $40 digital copies sold may actually be more profitable for blizzard than the $60 retail copies sold.

2) ok then why are you saying it didn't meet expectations selling 5+ million on its opening week as a new IP in a historically slow sales month? The only way that statement makes sense is if Blizzards expectations are significantly higher than those already impressive numbers yet you state you have no knowledge of their expectations sooooo ...
 
More powerful and cheaper, rumor GPU upgrade to 2TF and 4K Bluray/output support.
If that thing price at $249 or lower, it will fly off shelf.
Plus best line up in Xbox history that rival last year with Gears 4, Forza horizon 3, Recore, Halo wars 2 and more, I mean, Halo, Gears and Forza in the same holiday! I think it will be the best holiday for Xbox one.



Hmm, dont let the E3 hype set you up for disappointment. A Ultra HD 4k BluRay player right now is about $400. That is just for a player. I can tell you right now, they aren't going to have a $250 Ultra HD 4K BluRay Player with an upgraded Xbox One popping out any time soon.


Yes, it would fly off shelves (I am aware you said "IF)because it would be a too good to be true value at this point. Sure, later in the year, 4k Ultra HD players will drop in price, but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment for an Xbox One Slim with those updated features near that price. I mean, the Xbox One right now is still $50 more than that, and it doesn't have a 4k Ultra HD Player in it and lower specs.
 
The issue is you are completely ignoring the context of the month in which these sales occured. It is literally the slowest month of the year.

No, the fact the month is slow is accounted for by comparing the overall sales in 2016 to a baseline from 2015.

So yes 50k units a very significant margin during a month where very few consoles are able to break 200k units sold.

You are just repeating your conclusion, not offering any sort of argument for why boosts should only be measured as *multiplicative* effects instead of *additive* effects. Make an argument for the former.

Let's compare this boost to others with significant game launches on the competing brand's platforms. Halo Reach boosted sales of 360 by around 130k YoY. Halo 3 pushed 360 to 528k in its launch month (dunno how big that boost was since I can't seem to find September 2006 NPD data), but I would wager it was a huge delta YoY as well (MoM boost was about a 250k delta, for reference). Halo 5 boosted X1 sales YoY by 136k. Those are all very significant boosts imo. 50k with lackluster competition from X1, a cheaper console YoY, extremely generous trade in offers and a major release yielding a 50k boost is not a particularly large delta.

So yes percentages give a much more accurate depiction of scale in sales differentials than units because percentage differences account for the context of historical performance of said month YoY and MoM whereas units do not.

Percentages are given as PR spin. They are the language of marketing firms precisely because they do the opposite of what you are claiming here. They aren't useless, but they aren't more relevant for measuring a delta than...well, actually directly measuring the delta. The historical context has nothing to do with the magnitude of the boost.

You are just ignoring every other factor in your comparison, fixating on a single isolated value and assigning meaning to it that it doesn't actually have as has been explained to you multiple times at this point.

What is 'every other factor'? I haven't ignored the 150k baseline reference from May 2015...it is included in the delta as a direct measure of the boost relative to last year's figures. Are you honestly telling me that the question 'how many more units did PS4 sell as a result of conditions XYZ?' is somehow not sufficiently answered by looking at the delta? The phrase 'how many more units...' is a direct, unequivocal statement about the difference between two sales figures, not the percentage differences. It's a mathematical statement.

You guys can post and repeat the echo chamber murmurs until your fingers fall off...until you actually offer compelling counter arguments you won't be changing my mind. If you do manage to do so, I will gladly change my mind. But as of now, other major releases historically have typically offered much larger deltas and I still contend that the best way to measure a boost is to look at the difference it made to absolute sales, not fast 'n loose conflations with percentages. Note the example I gave in my reply to CosmicQueso...if you only look at percentages you ignore the fact that (in that example) the 'massive 38% boost' accounts for a few hundred units. I dunno how you could honestly tell me a few hundred units is a large boost.You could obviously scale things down even further too.

By your logic, going from zero units sold to 1 unit sold (an infinite percentage 'boost') is a sales boost the likes humanity has never imagined. We would tell stories to our grandchildren our where we were the day some console launched as enjoyed an unimaginable sales 'boost' that would stay with us the rest of our lives. Obviously that is silly and takes your logic to its extremes, but if your logic is inconsistent at its extremes it is, well, inconsistent and should be re-evaluated.

Your only argument on offer thus far is *literally* just robotically re-asserting the conclusion itself. You assert the only measure of a boost is as a multiplicative phenomena...but WHY?<---That is what I want you to address.
 
More powerful and cheaper, rumor GPU upgrade to 2TF and 4K Bluray/output support.
If that thing price at $249 or lower, it will fly off shelf.
Plus best line up in Xbox history that rival last year with Gears 4, Forza horizon 3, Recore, Halo wars 2 and more, I mean, Halo, Gears and Forza in the same holiday! I think it will be the best holiday for Xbox one.

0099_2bjto.gif
 
Doesn't surprise me too much Halo 5 outsold Uncharted in the US. I admit I thought Uncharted would just Crack 1 million so I did expect it to slightly outsell Halo. But at the end of the day Halo is still just a bigger brand in the US.

Globally though Uncharted should finish with a comfortable lead over Halo 5
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Let's compare this boost to others with significant game launches on the competing brand's platforms. Halo Reach boosted sales of 360 by around 130k YoY. Halo 3 pushed 360 to 528k in its launch month (dunno how big that boost was since I can't seem to find September 2006 NPD data), but I would wager it was a huge delta YoY as well (MoM boost was about a 250k delta, for reference). Halo 5 boosted X1 sales YoY by 136k. Those are all very significant boosts imo. 50k with lackluster competition from X1, a cheaper console YoY, extremely generous trade in offers and a major release yielding a 50k boost is not a particularly large delta.

360 sold 259,000 in September 2006.
 
Fuck you on about, Straley is the best director out there for me and TLOU is the best game I've played in the last 5 years. Druckmann pushed story too much and for that UC4 ended up pretty shit, that I agree with.

People can voice their opinions on a game, nothing wrong with that. It's just that after the huge expectations left after TLOU, their latest was not so great. I don't think there was anyone more hyped than me before UC4 released, it was a huge letdown to say the least.



So you were more hyped for U4 than anyone else, even though you absolutely hated Uncharted 1-3 and thought they were all 3 "terrible" (based on previous posts)? How in the world does that work? Just because you enjoyed TLOU, you expected U4 to be TLOU2 or something?


If you were more hyped for the 4th game in a series than anyone else, even though you thought the previous 3 were bad and you only played them "based on hype", only to be disappointed with U4, then you need to check your expectations a bit. It is pretty obvious you just set yourself up for disappointment from the get go.
 
There's a lot more context to consider with these numbers than just the number of weeks. Please see my post above summarizing all the relevant info.

Wait, lemme get this straight...so suddenly the actual sales rate is not at all relevant to evaluating sales performance?! By that logic let's note Halo 5 'sold' 5mil compared to UC4's meager 2.7mil!...because after all, apparently duration at market is not relevant. /s
 

RexNovis

Banned
No, the fact the month is slow is accounted for by comparing the overall sales in 2016 to a baseline from 2015.



You are just repeating your conclusion, not offering any sort of argument for why boosts should only be measured as *multiplicative* effects instead of *additive* effects. Make an argument for the former.

Let's compare this boost to others with significant game launches on the competing brand's platforms. Halo Reach boosted sales of 360 by around 130k YoY. Halo 3 pushed 360 to 528k in its launch month (dunno how big that boost was since I can't seem to find September 2006 NPD data), but I would wager it was a huge delta YoY as well (MoM boost was about a 250k delta, for reference). Halo 5 boosted X1 sales YoY by 136k. Those are all very significant boosts imo. 50k with lackluster competition from X1, a cheaper console YoY, extremely generous trade in offers and a major release yielding a 50k boost is not a particularly large delta.



Percentages are given as PR spin. They are the language of marketing firms precisely because they do the opposite of what you are claiming here. They aren't useless, but they aren't more relevant for measuring a delta than...well, actually directly measuring the delta. The historical context has nothing to do with the magnitude of the boost.



What is 'every other factor'? I haven't ignored the 150k baseline reference from May 2015...it is included in the delta as a direct measure of the boost relative to last year's figures. Are you honestly telling me that the question 'how many more units did PS4 sell as a result of conditions XYZ?' is somehow not sufficiently answered by looking at the delta? The phrase 'how many more units...' is a direct, unequivocal statement about the difference between two sales figures, not the percentage differences. It's a mathematical statement.

You guys can post and repeat the echo chamber murmurs until your fingers fall off...until you actually offer compelling counter arguments you won't be changing my mind. If you do manage to do so, I will gladly change my mind. But as of now, other major releases historically have typically offered much larger deltas and I still contend that the best way to measure a boost is to look at the difference it made to absolute sales, not fast 'n loose conflations with percentages. Note the example I gave in my reply to CosmicQueso...if you only look at percentages you ignore the fact that (in that example) the 'massive 38% boost' accounts for a few hundred units. I dunno how you could honestly tell me a few hundred units is a large boost.

Your only argument on offer thus far is *literally* just robotically re-asserting the conclusion itself. You assert the only measure of a boost is as a multiplicative phenomena...but WHY?<---That is what I want you to address.

Your entire arguement revolves around this idea that HW increases resulting from SW are some sort of universal constant that can be compared as like for like regardless of the month in which they occur. That's not true. HW sales are heavily influenced by the month in which they occur. This is why 150k is a normal result in May whereas it would be a disaster it's result in November. This is why it's rare to see a platform swell more than 200k units in May yet expected to see them sell more than 500k units in November. The market responds according to the baseline consumer behavior for the month in question resulting in what we see historically as maximums. The standard level of consumer traffic in a given month is a constant that should not be ignored.


So when you have a release during a high traffic month and you are comparing it with a low traffic month of course a big release debuting in a high traffic month with a corresponding large sales base is going to have a larger impact on a by unit basis. You can't compare the increase in units sold during software debuts as if the months themselves have no impact. It just doesn't work that way. Percentages allow for a comparison that aligns with the realities of the consumer traffic throughout the year whereas your analysis on the basis of units does not. Therefore YoY and MoM percentages are a more accurate measure of SW impact on HW than actual units.

Wait, lemme get this straight...so suddenly the actual sales rate is not at all relevant to evaluating sales performance?! By that logic let's note Halo 5 'sold' 5mil compared to UC4's meager 2.7mil!...because after all, apparently duration at market is not relevant. /s

What a blatant straw man you've constructed. That's not at all what I said and you damn well know it. I said there are other factors to consider than just the number of days on sale when comparing the two titles and I laid out exactly which factors I was speaking of in a prior post.
 

donny2112

Member
Now there's a blast from the past!

I should probably start asking around again - I haven't seen/heard much about Canadian sales numbers in ages. Then again, I just haven't had the time to keep up with sales data in general the way I used to.

Hey, Dalthien! Good to see you! Yeah, I think Sales-Age goes in waves of participation (me included) as people who had the time to follow it so closely once find that their time is called away to other areas. Good to know you're still about! (^_^)
 
I was way off on my prediction for Uncharted 4 but still, it was a wonderful month for ND. Great job!

Also, I'm happy for Doom, it's a great game!
 
Your entire arguement revolves around this idea that HW increases...

'Hardware increases...' means precisely what it says...the INCREASE in hardware sales. You realize that has a mathematical meaning, right? The mathematical difference does not care about percentages, it only cares about the number of units up for comparison and the difference in their magnitudes.

My argument revolves around understanding what basic mathematical statements mean, and applying them to data we have on hand, then parsing said data in my judgment about whether 50k is some impressive sales boost or not. By your logic, going from zero sales to 1 single unit is the biggest 'boost' we will ever encounter and should be praised as some sort of incredible feat. By your logic someone might ask 'which game increased sales more, UC4 or Halo 5?' and your reply might be the former EVEN THOUGH the latter did more to increase sales volume. That is inconsistent with the question posed.
That's not true. HW sales are heavily influenced by the month in which they occur.

My points don't make any claims about this fact. I am well aware of it and have never contended otherwise. This is a strawman argument.

This is why 150k is a normal result in May whereas it would be a disaster it's result in November. This is why it's rare to see a platform swell more than 200k units in May yet expected to see them sell more than 500k units in November. The market responds according to the baseline consumer behavior for the month in question resulting in what we see historically as maximums. The standard level of consumer traffic in a given month is a constant that should not be ignored.

I've never once suggested any of the above was not true. Go back and read my posts before replying please. You are trying to use filibustering as a stand in for addressing the points I *actually* raised. And once again, I didn't ignore May 2015 sales figures...you do understand that taking the difference of two numbers requires BOTH number to be used, yes?

So when you have a release during a high traffic month and you are comparing it with a low traffic month of course a big release debuting in a high traffic month with a corresponding large sales base is going to have a larger impact on a by unit basis.

This only follows iff you can show that sales boosts are to be evaluated as multiplicative phenomena instead of additive translations of sales volume. You keep repeating comments with that conclusion as the underlying premise, but have yet to actually make a case for why that must be. You are trying to make excuses to justify why you insist we ignore the 'difference in PS4 sales' UC4 et al made despite the question posed specifically being 'how much of a difference in PS4 sales did UC4 et al have?'.

What a blatant straw man you've constructed. That's not at all what I said and you damn well know it. I said there are other factors to consider than just the number of days on sale when comparing the two titles and I laid out exactly which factors I was speaking of in a prior post.

No, it actually is what your posts suggests. You may not like when I take your logic to the extremes to show its absurdity, but that is an issue with your logic, not mine. Someone told you about the number of weeks being radically different and you replied saying that it was unimportant despite the number of weeks being required for measuring sales pace at a game launch. Once you take away the sales rate there is no basis for time related comparisons.You told that other person that the weeks at market were not relevant. :/
 
Wait, lemme get this straight...so suddenly the actual sales rate is not at all relevant to evaluating sales performance?! By that logic let's note Halo 5 'sold' 5mil compared to UC4's meager 2.7mil!...because after all, apparently duration at market is not relevant. /s

Too bad halo isn't at 5 million sold through though
 
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