Not much they can really say. I have a feeling they're just riding this out and waiting to see what Microsoft does before making any moves.
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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]
- Thread starter Nirolak
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Not much they can really say. I have a feeling they're just riding this out and waiting to see what Microsoft does before making any moves.
Dragonborn
Member
Of course they would, but as is there's really no reason to do anything.
SlipperyMoose
Member
Has the Xbox One outsold the Wii U now WW?
That's a slippery slope to set yourself on, America is incredibly important to any company in the game industry.
The PS3 did great outside of America last-gen but that barely gave it a win in overall sales, this by itself shows how important the region is.
I think so.
Welfare
Member
Safe to say yes I would think.
On what Sony needs to do about Xbox One selling well in November and December... People should understand that Sony doesn't have to win the US and the UK to win the console generation. All Sony has to do to win the console generation is make sure MS doesn't have a significant enough lead in the US and the UK to nullify the sale advantage Sony has outside the US and the UK. As of right now, MS nullifying the PS4's lead in the US only means that XB1 will tie with PS4 in the US, which is still a console generation win for Sony. XB1 would have to win month after month over the PS4 in the US before they have a significant chance of winning the generation. However, that won't happen if XB1 returns to being $399 in January, since the PS4 will likely return to outselling the XB1 month to month starting in January.
To be honest, if Sony is able to keep up or even barely lead in NA throughout the generation, then that's the best case scenario for them.
So long as they aren't blown out like they were last gen in NA, XB1 isn't much of a threat to them :/
Well said.
shinra-bansho
Member
The idea that the Xbox group has carte blanche limitless access to resources is about as unrealistic as the idea that the division is going to be shuttered or sold.
travisbickle
Member
I think if they split the market with MS they'll be happy. I can't see a total drop off in sales for Sony happening now because Sony's had the mindshare for over a year as the default console, whereas last gen Xbox had a good 3 years when PS3 was either not on the market or totally overpriced which led to years of struggle for them.
I think the sales will be closer over the next year, with discerning gamers picking the more powerful PS4 and others picking the more recognisable Xbox brand (360 sold like 15 million more?)
theprodigy
Member
Hey the November numbers are out!
Haven't done this in awhile, sorry about that...
*click to enlarge
Dreamcast and WiiU are nearly tied again going into their third christmas. The DC will no longer be available in December, so this is nearly the end for Sega as final shipments and the last price drop take effect.
LTD:
WiiU 3.1m
DC 3.9m
GC 5.6m
lol at the Gamecube getting a massive spike
....what was Dreamcast November 2001?
Dragonborn
Member
Absolutely, and I expect MS to take Dec. too; however, it remains to be seen whether or not the X1 can keep this up during next year. If the PS4 goes back on top in Jan and forward, Sony may just feel "winning" 10 out of 12 months is worth more than bleeding cash to win a couple of em.
Winning.
Nah last I heard Great Britain had started buying them in droves on the Queens command...
/jk
Well Probably never in France and it looks bad in Germany for it as well. Other than that? Probably doing better than embarrassing.
Patapwn
Member
What would a merged xbox and playstation logo look like? I am beyond curious to find out
What would a merged Phil Spencer and shu look like? I am beyond curious (and horrified) to find out
airmangataosenai
Member
Nothing, the Dreamcast had been discontinued in March 2001.As of this month the Wii U still has yet to surpass total sales of the Dreamcast at the time of it's discontinuation despite 10 extra months of tracking time (Dreamcast discontinuation corresponds to January 2014 for the Wii U because the DC launched in September rather than November).
the dreamcast dropped to $49.99 in november 2001.
That's why I said a slippery slope, saying Xbox One isn't a threat when they just outsold them on the busiest month of the year by 1/3rd is pretty silly.
"couple of em" happen to represent more sales than the other ten months combined. Problem with this is that if Microsoft manages to continue to win or equal the PS4 on these off months than November and December will just blow out any kind of lead they had.
It would look like a Xbox logo because there would be no Playstation anymore, Microsoft would never buy Sony anyway. They have no interest in Asian insurance sales and already own a phone and console gaming business. I don't think anyone wants to buy themselves into what Sony Pictures have dug themselves into lately.
Microsoft managed to almost nullify Sony's lead in the US/UK in just the first year after a terrible PR storm and starting with a huge price difference; this generation isn't anywhere near over yet.
It was really cheap.
They have around $90 billion dollars sitting in Europe with nothing to do but burn through it and compared to Sony this is limitless. Them buying Minecraft for $2 billion with this money definitely shows that they are willing to spend it on whatever they want.
This money is from their profits outside of the US so it's only getting bigger. There is a reason they are building so many data centers outside of the US and this warchest is that reason.
theprodigy
Member
um, the Dreamcast line clearly continues going on that graph
travisbickle
Member
The PS4 outsold XB1 by more than 1/3 in both Sept and Oct. XB1 received an extreme boost from both a price reduction and a holiday sale period together, when it's also been under performing prior to this. It's not Thanksgiving every month and MS can't cut the price every month, so we can't take much away from this performance for future predictions.
It might have been more true (but still with at least some limitations) back in the Xbox / early Xbox 360 days, when consoles seemed like the next big thing that could provide a lucrative monopoly a la Windows. Now that it's clear that Google/Apple have found that pot of gold instead, it's far more difficult for Sony or MS to justify losing billions when there is no longer any real suggestion that there is some uber-lucrative monopoly to be had in the longer term.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
How is it not over?
It's baffling to me how someone could actually believe the generation isn't already over. It's like looking at an electoral map. Where's the viable path? Are they gonna build a 20 million lead in the US in 4 years?
They don't need to cut the price every month, they just need to continue staying under the price of the PS4 and continue to offer bundles year round with big releases.
You don't need to predict anything, the technology industry has shown time and time again that price is usually king.
It's baffling that anyone would believe a console generation is over in a single year.
Without defending the suggestion that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 (which I agree is silly), there is question about how strong a second place the Xbox One could get. At some points it's seemed like the PS4 would run away with the generation and get 70%+ market share worldwide; I think right now it's looking more like 50% or 60% marketshare worldwide (keep in mind here that the Wii U, as paltry as it may be, is still going to soak up 5-10% worldwide marketshare).
But it's an open question, at least. I don't think it's reasonable to suggest PS4 won't win, but it's reasonable to ask how complete its victory will be. If the Xbox One ends up selling, let's say, 75% as much as the PS4 (even that doesn't seem likely, but it's an example), then that's close enough that the difference is mostly meaningless.
Pancakes R Us
Member
I'm glad Microsoft won November. Sony and Microsoft need to keep each other on their toes.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
How so? I think my reasoning is pretty sound.
It can actually be far more telling than you might think. I think a good comparison here would be polls done that may only have 5,000 participants but which claim to represent the entire US; many people are shocked that such a small sample could produce meaningfully predictive results, but it can, and when done well, can produce a high degree of accuracy.
Given how sound the PS4 has thumped everything else, it would be unprecedented for it to fall to second place. Maybe it could eventually, but I'd categorize it as "extremely unlikely" at this point. You say we're only a single year in; I say we're nearly 15-20% of the way through the generation until the PS5/Xbox Two are released.
We just had a gen that showed otherwise?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I was just going to post. If this generation lasts 5 years like we've been told it will we're already 20% of the way through it. Couple that with the fact that Microsoft is still being outsold worldwide and I'm perplexed as to what (other than hopes and dreams) one would base their prediction on.
Come on now. How many threads have we had people explaining the differences and yet it goes on and on. PS3 is actually a perfect example of why Xbox One won't come back. PS3 had strength worldwide that helped counteract the one year advantage and NA dominance of the 360. Neither of those advantages are in play anymore.
Come on now. How many threads have we had people explaining the differences and yet it goes on and on. PS3 is actually a perfect example of why Xbox One won't come back. PS3 had strength worldwide that helped counteract the one year advantage and NA dominance of the 360. Neither of those advantages are in play anymore.
No we didn't. The Wii was selling significantly better than anything else after the first full year, and it ended up selling better than anything else at the end of the generation. It didn't outsell everything as profoundly as it may have seemed in the first year, but it still outsold the PS3/360 by a significant amount.
CosmicQueso
Member
Always are. Takes about 3 months before all the small variabilities are ironed out. Almost always the adjustments aren't significant, but retailers restate sometimes, extrapolation rates need adjusting, that kind of thing.
Nullify? dude they still have a 800k lead in US. They got done nicely in November, that's for sure.If they have a 400k lead in the next 2 months then they would have'nullified' the gap in US
Patapwn
Member
I was just joking. And keep fighting the good fight warrior
There is a long road ahead of us in this generation.
I personally don't know what this generation is going to look like in 7-9 years but it's definitely not a one man race.
I know you were joking, didn't stop me from answering the question. You were incredibly curious after all.
If they end up repeating this success in December than a 400k lead is pretty small for a market like the US.
Dragonborn
Member
Yes the two months are very important but the PS4 is still selling incredibly well. It's not like it ceases to sell in these months.
hodayathink
Member
At this moment, the standing of the three seventh gen consoles is exactly the same as it was after one year with all of them on the market (in the US and worldwide, I believe). The PS3 may/will pass the 360 worldwide at some point, but as far as we know it hasn't happened yet, and it won't happen in the US at all. And neither console is catching up to the Wii worldwide because neither one is showing anywhere near the legs that the PS2 had.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
7-9 years? Also, other than "well let's just see what happens and hope for the best" you really haven't offered anything substantive.
Oh, are we doing one of those "ignore the Wii" discussions? In that case, the PS3/360 battle isn't remotely comparable.
Even in its early days, the PS3 was selling about 80% as well as the 360 was -- the initial gap was fairly large, but mostly a consequence of the 360 launching a year earlier. By contrast, the Xbox One is selling about 60% as well as the PS4 is. That's a huge difference.
Right now, based on what we know, the PS4 has sold ~16M units worldwide, and the Xbox One has sold ~9.5M units worldwide.
If instead we had ~16M units for PS4 and ~13M units for Xbox One, I think a reasonable person could imagine this changing. But it's not remotely that close, and as such, it isn't reasonable to expect a change.
What is this from?
Neither does the Xbox One.
I didn't know saying "I don't know" required substantive evidence.
What we do know is that Sony gained a early lead with great PR and a nice price gap at the beginning of the generation; we also know that Microsoft seems to be willing to fight tooth and nail to get this lead back.
In the end all I do know is that the real winners of this generation are the gamers if this keeps up.<- I know it's a cop out answer but it's definitely true.
Like it or not, there is no contest in terms of worldwide. The PS4 is leading the X1 by roughly 2:1 worldwide. It may still be possible for the X1 to overtake the PS4 in the US, but I doubt it. Unless you think US=Everywhere else?
Dragonborn
Member
Which is my point. Sony can loose these two months and win the next ten and it's good enough. I doubt they even expected to win NA in the first place
airmangataosenai
Member
Discontinued means they halted production of new hardware, not that the system ceased to exist at retail. They were clearing out the remaining stock both at retail and in warehouses for the following year or so.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I agree with everything said here. It's virtually impossible for Xbox One to "win" this generation based on everything I've seen.
Patapwn
Member
Thank you for the education that MS would never buy Sony and what a disaster they are because of the leaks
If the Xbox One sees a huge, sustained resurgence (and that's possible), I could imagine it jumping from selling ~50% as well as the PS4 (as it did during most of this year) all the way to, let's say, 70% or 80%.
But jumping from 50% to 100%? Even that wouldn't change the results -- PS4 would still win in the end, as it already has a significant advantage. The Xbox One would need to jump from ~50% of PS4's sales on a worldwide monthly basis to ~110% or ~120% to eventually catch up in any meaningful time frame.
I'd categorize the chances of that as very low. That sort of sales jump would be unprecedented. It's not impossible in the same way that it's not impossible I'll die tomorrow, but it's very unlikely.
But jumping from 50% to 100%? Even that wouldn't change the results -- PS4 would still win in the end, as it already has a significant advantage. The Xbox One would need to jump from ~50% of PS4's sales on a worldwide monthly basis to ~110% or ~120% to eventually catch up in any meaningful time frame.
I'd categorize the chances of that as very low. That sort of sales jump would be unprecedented. It's not impossible in the same way that it's not impossible I'll die tomorrow, but it's very unlikely.
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