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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

$10 billion in the bank doesn't hurt. I just wish they knew how to spend it better.

Right, like I said Nintendo has quite a bit of time before things get truly dire at a company level although I'm not sure what it would take to force investors hands. Things like Amiibo that better monetize the current userbases and even nintendo fans not part of either userbase are great short-term strategies to further push back those potentially dire future times.
 

Nameless

Member
I don't think people realize how well both of these consoles sold this month.

Best 2nd Novembers via Aquamarine

Wii - 981K (November 2007)

PS2 - 919K (November 2001)

N64 - 764K (November 1997)

Xbox 360 - 511K (November 2006)

This. And speaking of price, I don't see how anyone can spin PS4 obliterating the previous sales record for a $400 console in the month November as this crushing defeat. That's kind of impressive no?

Microsoft approached Black Friday like a rabid dog and priced the One to rip through its competition. From 11/27-11/29 the AC Bundle was basically $329. A year ago...A year ago, if you wanted an Xbone you were paying $499. Can we pause for half a second talk about how utterly insane that is? They presented consumers with a nearly irresistible value proposition and it worked. God bless'em for it.

I'm fascinated to see where they go from here. The AC games are gone after the holidays you would think. Can they realistically raise the price on top of that? Value wise that is a tremendous swing.
 
TFkyGnI.jpg

US Market HW TTM.

*only includes 6th gen onwards.
**missing Nov '14 360 and PS3 at present, will update if/when. Home is probably still down, but not by the degree currently shown, over last month.
***missing recent NDS and PSP, but their sales are likely negligible at this point.
****error caveat blabla.

Really wondering what Nintendo do about handhelds going forward.
 
Why be so upset about it?




Oh...

If that fuckoff would actually do something other than troll now days the thread wouldn't have spiraled to shit in 5 seconds flat. He was the only source with nobody saying otherwise, MS was acting weird on Twitter and PR statements. Honestly am happy MS managed to pull ahead with all the shit they gave for free because if it were true about the 10k difference, the only logical step would be even more price cuts.

Cboat has literally gone from a logical insider to more worthless than a magic 8 ball.
 

Beefy

Member
It almost makes me feel like they sort of need to find the next big idea, the thing that captivates everyone's attention, for their home console to be really relevant again. People just keep relegating them to the sidelines when they make more standard types of consoles, and since they're not competing with PS4/XBO on technical grounds they have to set themselves apart. As much as some like the gamepad, it was not some big innovation. It was essentially an iteration on the dual screen concept. People understood what it was and were essentially, um, over it. There's certain concessions one has to make when they buy Nintendo platforms these days, so Nintendo has to make sure it's really worth it if you do. For Nintendo, that's having something no one else does and making people smile and get together in totally unexpected ways. That's what people associate with Nintendo's hardware now. That's just as much part of their image as Mario.

So, despite my own distaste for gimmicks, they need a gimmick. But one that will actually capture the imaginations of consumers.

When do you think Sony will drop the price of the PS4? Do you think they will do it with a major exclusive release like Uncharted 4?
 

vin-buc

Member
Phil Spencer has done a tremendous job with the Xbox One, which I honestly did not thought it would be possible given the circumstances with that console, since I thought it would had been the next Dreamcast given how terrible it was doing the first half of this year.

No he hasn't. They've consistently been beat the entire year by the PS4. Anyone can drop the price and bundle several new games - that doesn't take a genius mind. Theres profit loss in exchange for market share. Msft has the money to absorb those losses. Don't attribute that to "Phil doing a tremendous job."
 

Hoje0308

Banned
You're looking at things in a bubble. A price cut isn't going to be announced for only one region, it's a global strategy. A lot of factors have to be considered.

Right now, the PS4 is dominating EMEA. In the US, it's more competitive, but the PS4 is still leading. Even after December, that will still be the case. At which point, we enter the smaller months, and even if Xbox One continues to outsell it (which I don't believe will happen consistently), that lead would mostly remain or they'd mostly be on equal footing until the next big Holiday quarter. This is ignoring the revenue which would suffer a big impact from cutting the price in such a short-sighted move. I'll keep this very simple here since it's more complicated really. But let's say I cut $50 off the price of the system, but have effectively reduced my profit margin from $70 to $20. How many more sales am I really going to push over the Holiday season, and what does it mean for my bottom line? Neglecting that, what's the forecasting looking like for the console at its current pricing? And what does cutting the price now mean long-term because I can't simply cut price every year? After doing all these calculations, what about the other regions? What does it mean for them? SCEE where everything is fantastic, or SCEJ/A where they're still waiting on getting some momentum going and a price cut would be better strategically placed next to a huge title to help push it. All of this has to be taken into consideration.

Xbox One is doing well after dropping the price $170 in a year, but their desperation was necessary. They cut their own legs off by starting at $499, and they know that they cannot afford to be anything less than competitive in the US. That is simply far too important for them. Even so, they're closing in on 10 million units shipped now as per their last release. PS4 has remained at $399 from the beginning and is closing in on 20 million units shipped.

No company makes such a short sighted move based off one month's results, especially when it's affecting one region and to a mostly insignificant extent. I'm sure SCEA executives will sit down and plan thoroughly for whatever they want to do, but it's not just about cutting price. Maximising the potential of the PS4 at its current pricing is part of the longevity of the system. Lots of people continue to purchase the system, and it's setting a fantastic pace for sales. We're now leaving the biggest quarter of the year so cutting price at this stage would be idiotic. Cutting price prior to entering it would be equally idiotic considering the strength of sales, and the fact that we're entering the biggest quarter of the year.

A price cut isn't necessary. SCEA has done fine this month. Where they messed up is with their marketing and promotional push in face of a much more aggressive Microsoft, but to be fair, there was only so much that could be countered there.


Needs to be on every page.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Historically these are the percentages November and December were for total yearly sales.
Bold is the peak year of sales, underlined is the highest percentage and italics is the lowest.

I only used data when I had the entire years of sales for a system.
 
I mean first we have to consider Sony is a worldwide company, like MS, and they have their #1 lead solidified on that perspective. That's not changing.

But in terms of what Sony has to do strategically in the US, I think first is not to overreact. They still sold a considerable amount of units at a much higher price, so their margins at that price are going to be better. So they can stand to sell a few hundred thou less and still make comparably decent profits.

So first is wait until end of December NPD, and assess the landscape. What was your week-on-week average? Did Xbox One shows signs of real decline after the initial glow of the $349/$329BF deals wore off? Does it suggest the month-to-month sales rate will return to roughly equivalent levels as they were prior to Holidays, or will it mean XBO can actually win on a monthly off-holiday basis?

If it means the ladder, then I believe they will have a price drop to $349.99 by July 2015, which Black Friday deals including a game or two. They'll have their own bounce during that time. It's uncertain whether they will be able to return the sizable gap Microsoft took back during this year, though, in terms of the US territory.

The other thing they need to is ensure their products release in a timely fashion and without issues. I do believe the early disparity between seeing the network failures on Driveclub vs. smooth launch of Forza Horizon 2 - independent of each's actual performance - painted a sort of PS4 incompetence picture that played at least a small role in motivating people toward XBO. So, they need to be on the ball with their product releases, and ensure they come out in a polished state. Driveclub now with the updates is one of the best racing games of all time, but now few will ever acknowledge it due to its atrocious launch.

They've been botching Order marketing, but that's their first chance to really start a trend back toward PS4, since they have an insane 2015 lineup. It's going to be the games that can help PS4 regain its dominant footing, that coupled with 2015's strategic price cut. Sony can't be stingy with the price cuts this go around, they gotta be on the ball

No Amirox. Drive Club still sucks.
 

Instro

Member
Ah ok yeah I suppose that is a better metaphor. Nintendo still has quite a bit of time before they are truly out on the street though. I do wonder where they go from here though. Clearly they want to continue with dedicated devices but they appear to be less and less relevant.

Hard to say. They may be content to be a profitable, albeit niche player, in the hardware market and spend money towards expanding out to other markets with other devices like that sleep monitor thing. I'm sure the combined ecosystem will make them more attractive in the future, particularly if their "non-wearables" re-attract people to the brand.
 

CapHarlock

Neo Member
Call of Duty, GTA, SSBB and Pokemon and software sales are still down from last year to this year. This is also counting the fact that with gas being cheaper people have more money to spend on them.
 

MaulerX

Member
It almost makes me feel like they sort of need to find the next big idea, the thing that captivates everyone's attention, for their home console to be really relevant again. People just keep relegating them to the sidelines when they make more standard types of consoles, and since they're not competing with PS4/XBO on technical grounds they have to set themselves apart. As much as some like the gamepad, it was not some big innovation. It was essentially an iteration on the dual screen concept. People understood what it was and were essentially, um, over it. There's certain concessions one has to make when they buy Nintendo platforms these days, so Nintendo has to make sure it's really worth it if you do. For Nintendo, that's having something no one else does and making people smile and get together in totally unexpected ways. That's what people associate with Nintendo's hardware now. That's just as much part of their image as Mario.

So, despite my own distaste for gimmicks, they need a gimmick. But one that will actually capture the imaginations of consumers.


That and it lost alot of it's uniqueness being that you can do similar things with PS4/Vita and to some degree Smartglass with it's second screen with some games.
 

yoplay

Member
What are the upcoming marketing deals for next year?
Sony has Hardline, Arkham Knight, and MKX. I also believe they have Disney Infinity and Battlefront but I am not sure.
Microsoft has Evolve, the Division (though that might not come out in 2015), Witcher 3, and of course Call of Duty.
I have no idea what MGSV is going to do, as well as AC or any of the sports titles. I think AC especially might be a wild card.
Any other major game that I'm missing?
None of them will likely carry the impact of Watch Dogs or Destiny though. Ultimately because of CoD Microsoft is more secure and if they also keep their sports titles and AC they'll definitely win in this regard. AC going back to Sony would even things imo, but overall things look in MS's favor.

Beyond that, what are the heavy hitter exclusive when it comes to gaining console market share?
Sony: The Order: 1886, Bloodborne, Uncharted 4
Microsoft: Quantum Break, Halo 5, RotTR, Forza (Though since its the third title it probably won't be a huge gainer)
Naughty Dog has gained a lot of hype from TLoU and Halo has lost some from Halo 4, so while Halo is still bigger, I don't think the gap will be tremendous. Thus here I feel they're about matched. Sony has a much larger library of other exclusives as compared to MS, though none will likely be system seller, though overall they'll likely add a bit to the steady sales of the system.

I think next year is going to be very close. Ultimately, I think its going to come down to the deals they offer and how much they put into marketing.


The Uncharted hype will be bigger. Lots of 360 owners who jumped on PS4 will increase the base for the game. Halo is dwindling due to Bungie not working on the title.

And how dare u forget Bloodborne. Sheesh. That game will sell a lot. Especially with The Witcher 3 being pushed back.
 

vin-buc

Member
When do you think Sony will drop the price of the PS4? Do you think they will do it with a major exclusive release like Uncharted 4?

Historically - havent they dropped around the trade shows? They'll probably follow suit but in the meanwhile add value by bundling, storage capacity, etc.
 
Right, like I said Nintendo has quite a bit of time before things get truly dire at a company level although I'm not sure what it would take to force investors hands. Things like Amiibo that better monetize the current userbases and even nintendo fans not part of either userbase are great short-term strategies to further push back those potentially dire future times.

I like the Amiibo strategy, I just wish they would have thought of it before Skylanders and Disney jumped in head first to that market. I think it has a potential to lay the path to better things in the future.
 

allan-bh

Member
Wii U sales are terrible. I was sure that would hit at least 300k with Smash Bros.

No way this console can hold 2 more years. 2015 probably will be the last relevant year.
 

RedAssedApe

Banned
Would be interesting to see how many of those sales were for people who had the respective other console already. Those prices were enticing EVERYBODY. 2mil combined and 1.2 mil just for the xbone 😱

how much do console sales usually drop between November and dec?
 

Biker19

Banned
They probably will anyway out of stubbornness. You think Microsoft wants to lose in the US? Hell no lol.

I'm just trying to get this shit out of people's heads that, "Don't worry; Microsoft's not going to let the Xbox brand suffer, they have tons of money that they can rely on from Windows, Office, & Servers! They'll flush it all down the toilet just to keep a sinking ship afloat because they can, LOL."

A sane company of any kind doesn't just keep throwing money down on something that's a massive money sink profitability wise.
 

orochi91

Member
Just because Microsoft has tons of money doesn't mean that they'll keep spending it all on the Xbox division as a whole.

MS tossed billions to keep the Surface brand afloat.

They'll continue to do the same thing to keep their only significant living-room product competitive.

Money is not an issue with the Xbox division.

What we should be thinking abut instead is what the next major 3rd party game will be exclusive to the system in 2015. MS has the cash and desperation to get shit done.
 

Hexa

Member
The Uncharted hype will be bigger. Lots of 360 owners who jumped on PS4 will increase the base for the game. Halo is dwindling due to Bungie not working on the title.

And how dare u forget Bloodborne. Sheesh. That game will sell a lot. Especially with The Witcher 3 being pushed back.

lol I didn't forget it. Its in there above. That first sentence was focusing more on just comparing the biggest titles both companies have. I still think Halo will come out on top, though Uncharted coming out on top isn't ridiculous at all as it would have been with any previous title. idk. We'll see. The second one was talking about the ones I didn't list at all, like Tearaway or Persona 5, which I don't think will be major system sellers but will still make small but due to the large number steady increases to the PS4 market share.
 

ShogunX

Member
So this is how these NPD threads go from what I've seen.

Initial overreaction to some unknown sources post> clarification 30-40 pages later> Discussing numbers etc> People trying to downplay the numbers with long essays.

Nailed it. Well apart from the long essays part, instead we get posts that the Iraqi information minister would be proud of.
 
What are you talking about? Are you talking about the GTAV bundles? It comes with 2 free games. GTA V and The last of Us. The other Holiday bundle was Lego Batman 3 and LBP3?

And to your amazon argument, Sony's stock is sold out on amazon Minus the Destiny Bundle 439$ and bare bones vanilla system for 399$.

The other bundles are being sold by third party sellers not amazon. WHich is why it's not tracking in top.

This one

L6Wjzrj.jpg
 

Hawk269

Member
When do you think Sony will drop the price of the PS4? Do you think they will do it with a major exclusive release like Uncharted 4?

It's going to be an interesting November/December 2015 for sure. There will be a:

PS4 Bundle with Uncharted 4
XB1 Bundle with Halo 5

So two big titles going head to head and bundled with their respective hardware. It is going to come down to price. I think Halo has a bigger fan base/history, but UC is no slouch at all. It will be extremely entertaining to see how it shakes out and what each company is willing to do to one up the other.
 

JNA

Banned
I'm just trying to get this shit out of people's heads that, "Don't worry, Microsoft's not going to let the Xbox brand suffer, they have tons of money that they can rely on from Windows, Office, & Servers!".

A sane company of any kind doesn't just keep throwing money down on something that's like a sinking ship profitability wise.

Eh, Microsoft is a different beast. No matter how much money they pour in and lose in the Xbox Brand in the short term, they will still profit because of their software elsewhere. They are doing the same thing to the Surface for christ sake lol.

They pretty much have infinite money and are way too big to collapse.
 
Zelda will be the last hurrah I imagine, as a new home system needs to come in 2016.

The problem is that's probably the same time they need to launch a new handheld system.

From a practicality standpoint I don't really know if they can do so.
515k for 3DS. My guess for the Vita is <= 72k, the number for last November.
Vita number was like cream's first post in the thread. EDIT: Oh my bad that was Vita TV.
 

Ethelwulf

Member
Woa woa... I've just returned from having dinner with friends. Cboat was wrong? So the gap is trully closing then? Less entertaining but way more expected. I was actually discussing this with a friend and it made no sense to us. 350 should be Microsoft's price now.
 

Duxxy3

Member
The Uncharted hype will be bigger. Lots of 360 owners who jumped on PS4 will increase the base for the game. Halo is dwindling due to Bungie not working on the title.

And how dare u forget Bloodborne. Sheesh. That game will sell a lot. Especially with The Witcher 3 being pushed back.

I'm thinking it won't sell close to what dark souls 2 sold. More established franchise and available on 2 systems

But I'm still getting a PS4 around that time to get Bloodborne (if I have money)
 
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