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[ZSaberLink]

So...what was the biggest 3DS game from April onward? Also, what's the biggest 3DS game for the first 3 months of 2016.

(if Fire Emblem Fates is really the biggest 3DS release of the fiscal year in NA, I will laugh so hard, I have to have forgotten something though)

In 2016, you'll have a ton of titles though in the first quarter ironically. I'd say arguably Mario & Luigi is bigger, but I don't know for sure. Fire Emblem became pretty big w/ Awakening.

Mario & Luigi Paper Jam - 1/22
Final Fantasy Explorers - 1/26
Project X Zone 2 - 2/16
Fire Emblem Fates - 2/19
Megaman Legacy Collection - 2/23
Terraria (retail) - 2/23
Hyrule Warriors Legends - 3/25

2015 after April really did have jack squat... not sure why they're overloading Jan-mar next yet.

This year after April basically had P&DZ+ Mario Bomba, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer, LoZ: Triforce Heroes, and Youkai Watch in terms of anything pushed by Nintendo...

 

[slavesnyder]

I guess theprodigy cares.
So if someone has a better answer than "lol", why not share this information.

 

[Nirolak]

I guess theprodigy cares.
So if someone has a better answer than "lol", why not share this information.

He's indicating that there's been basically zero volume for anything new, at least relative to the titles early this year.

 

[slavesnyder]

Stupid question.
If amazon was out of stock in the US, would it be possible for them to transfer stuff from e.g. Canada or so? Or are those boxes differently labeled?
I guess it's annoying to run out on a heavily demanded item one week before christmas while other retailers still have them.
If they miss on, let's say just 1000 sales x 300$ that's already something.

 

[kswiston]

3DS is done bro. Next is the 6th year... at this point is not even that important.

Only because the 3DS had poor legs in the US.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Only because the 3DS had poor legs in the US.

True. For a comparation DS legs were waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay longer and stronger.

Hell, the first year DS sold 2.50 million in the US... then, the sales are continued to increase until the 5° year which is the peak with over 11 million sold. ( no one ever topped this)

3DS first year was 4.10 million, and in 2015 will end at < 2.50 million in the 5° year for a comparation...

 

[CosmicQueso]

Only because the 3DS had poor legs in the US.

Yeah I bought a New 3DS but only got to use it for like 6 hours. There was no power cable in the box and I couldn't figure out how to change the batteries so I tossed it.

 

[theprodigy]

Yeah I bought a New 3DS but only got to use it for like 6 hours. There was no power cable in the box and I couldn't figure out how to change the batteries so I tossed it.

LOL

Only because the 3DS had poor legs in the US.

It's not like it had better legs in Japan or anywhere else, just a higher baseline for the former.

(my earlier question was half serious, half to mock the lack of games 3DS had; it would admittedly be hilarious for a Fire Emblem game to have the highest 1st month sales)

Edit: right I forgot, unless US diverges from EU significantly, Paper Jam is not a threat

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yeah I bought a New 3DS but only got to use it for like 6 hours. There was no power cable in the box and I couldn't figure out how to change the batteries so I tossed it.

 

[woodypop]

Dunno if this has already been posted elsewhere, but I just got an email (with special UPC code) from GameStop offering a free $50 gift card with the purchase of an Xbox One bundle (starting at $299.99). Offer's good through 12/26/15.

MS/GameStop turning up the heat?

 

[Asd202]

Dunno if this has already been posted elsewhere, but I just got an email (with special UPC code) from GameStop offering a free $50 gift card with the purchase of an Xbox One bundle (starting at $299.99). Offer's good through 12/26/15.

MS/GameStop turning up the heat?

MS goes for the biggest player.

 

[anexanhume]

MS goes for the biggest player.

The elusive MAU

 

[joecanada]

People think that because amazon is out of stock ps4 is doomed!?

Spoiler

lmao, amazon is only a smal percent of the overall market. All the other more important retailers seem fine with stock

Even if ps4 was sold out everywhere for a month this would in no way hurt them in the long term... selling out products leads to news stories, gifs of people stampeding stores and so on and so forth... increasing demand even more and perception of the years hottest gadgets....

There is exactly zero negatives to this scenario for Sony. If anything they could just raise the price again in January and keep selling out.

 

[igordennis]

Yeah I bought a New 3DS but only got to use it for like 6 hours. There was no power cable in the box and I couldn't figure out how to change the batteries so I tossed it.

Your sarcasm game is getting stronger.

 

[Mrbob]

Street Fighter 4 Vanilla was "bigger" than Uncharted 3

That is kind of crazy, but I can see it. The Street Fighter revival with 4 was huge and ND hadn't reached its final form yet with Uncharted 3.

I expect UC4 to sell much better than SF5.

 

[Regiruler]

In 2016, you'll have a ton of titles though in the first quarter ironically. I'd say arguably Mario & Luigi is bigger, but I don't know for sure. Fire Emblem became pretty big w/ Awakening.

Mario & Luigi Paper Jam - 1/22
Final Fantasy Explorers - 1/26
Project X Zone 2 - 2/16
Fire Emblem Fates - 2/19
Megaman Legacy Collection - 2/23
Terraria (retail) - 2/23
Hyrule Warriors Legends - 3/25

2015 after April really did have jack squat... not sure why they're overloading Jan-mar next yet.

This year after April basically had P&DZ+ Mario Bomba, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer, LoZ: Triforce Heroes, and Youkai Watch in terms of anything pushed by Nintendo...

That reminds me that Nintendo is being absolutely dead silent on Federation Force even though IIRC it was a spring release. I could be pulling that out of my ass though (if it wasn't a spring release--at least initially--it was definitely a bad idea to show it so early).

Cream already posted it sold 182k.

Bayonetta 2 sales
October 2014 - 68,000
November 2014 - 95,000
December 2014 - 135,000
March 2015 - 157,000
November 2015 - 182,000

For NA? I know this is NPD but sometimes the context is muddled.

Nice legs I suppose, given that its LTD is well over double its launch month.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

For NA? I know this is NPD but sometimes the context is muddled.

Nice legs I suppose, given that its LTD is well over double its launch month.

For US.

And no, those legs are not good. 25,000 in 7 months are bad.

 

[ZSaberLink]

For US.

And no, those legs are not good. 25,000 in 7 months are bad.

Well that's the thing, it basically did similarly to Bayo 1 despite the Wii U (better than either SKU, but worse than full sales). I'd say it did ok all things. I would never expect Bayo 2 to be a leggy title, but in the end it did almost ok.

 

[John Harker]

That is kind of crazy, but I can see it. The Street Fighter revival with 4 was huge and ND hadn't reached its final form yet with Uncharted 3.

I expect UC4 to sell much better than SF5.

Super was big too, but I didn't count it because of obvious duplication. If you just look at PS3 only uc3 was closer to 2x but I don't think that's a good indication of demand... Sfv will likely sell better on ps4 than it did alone on PS3.

Uncharted is a big game but it's not some monster series like people seem to believe it is

 

[Jigolo]

Super was big too, but I didn't count it because of obvious duplication. If you just look at PS3 only uc3 was closer to 2x but I don't think that's a good indication of demand... Sfv will likely sell better on ps4 than it did alone on PS3.

Uncharted is a big game but it's not some monster series like people seem to believe it is

Uncharted is going to sell more than Halo 5

 

[Nightengale]

Uncharted is a big game but it's not some monster series like people seem to believe it is

People are expecting sales trajectory of UC4 to be upwards, buoyed by TLOU as well and how Sony's seeding in Uncharted into PS4 owners via bundles and UCC.

Also, Uncharted is kinda like Gran Turismo in a lot of ways. Purely based off available sales data and generic anecdotes, there's no way a lot of us would guess GT6 to sell 4.7 million but it bloody did.

The worldwide appeal of Uncharted means we are not privy to how well it does in tier-3 markets.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I would be interested to see who these people are referring to Uncharted as a "monster" series. What is this claim based off of?

 

[3rdamention]

I'm sure they could make more. Hell, Wii sold almost 4 million in the US on its third December.



The SW bundle isn't back in stock until Dec 27th according to Amazon's website. December 25th for the uncharted bundle.

I wouldn't necessarily believe that. It was saying that the Star Wars Bundle wouldn't be back in stock until like December 23rd yesterday, and was back in stock today. They had it for a while today, then went back out of stock.



And, it being Sold Out at Amazon.com, the US online retailer, isn't going to be such a huge problem considering it appears to be IN STOCK at every other US retailer with an online store front, and appears anecdotally to be in stock at all Brick and Mortar stores. I mean, it has been selling like crazy on Amazon, at least when you look at charts, they simply have been having supply issues the last couple days. However, if someone really wants the bundle, they can walk in a store and buy it, or pick it up at any other online retailer.

 

[Primethius]

I would be interested to see who these people are referring to Uncharted as a "monster" series. What is this claim based off of?

I think the upcoming game will be a "monster".

So long as it follows the upward trajectory of 3 and benefits from TLOUs astounding success, I don't see why it wouldn't be.

 

[theprodigy]

This is massively LTTP, but did we get first month sales for Lego: Jurassic World?

 

[benny_a]

Why not instead of saying unspecific stuff like "monster" or "big" give the actual ranges you think they are in.

For me a monster might be GTA for another FIFA. But there are ~20 million copies between those.

 

[Loudninja]

The Ucharted series on the PS3 sold 21 million copies so its pretty huge
http://blog.eu.playstation.com/2015...ake-collection-is-coming-to-ps4-this-october/

UC3 shipped 3.8 million on day one
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=451602

UC3 sold 700k when it launched in November
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=455040

 

[Primethius]

Why not instead of saying unspecific stuff like "monster" or "big" give the actual ranges you think they are in.

For me a monster might be GTA for another FIFA. But there are ~20 million copies between those.

For me, I think it'll be around a 10 million game, which I think of as a sales monster for an exclusive.

 

[newjeruse]

I think 8M WW is within range.

 

[QaaQer]

Why not instead of saying unspecific stuff like "monster" or "big" give the actual ranges you think they are in.

For me a monster might be GTA for another FIFA. But there are ~20 million copies between those.

Sony doesn't really have any sales monster franchaises aside from gt, and that is past its prime. I'm guessing >1 million retail npd tracked copies in its first reporting period will make management happy, >2 million and it'll get monster status.

I don't think linear third person adventure games have much pull, so I'm going with 5-800k first month npd. However, if Neil pulls another omg-you've-got-play-this story out of his hat and we are talking 94-96 metacritic, then 2 million is possible. That is really unlikely, it is uncharted after all.

 

[hawk2025]

NPD-only discussion is fine and all, but ultimately the discussion of what is a "giant" or "monster" franchise has to gravitate around worldwide sales.

The US-only approach is near-useless, especially when it comes to Playstation.

 

[3rdamention]

Everything is fine everyone (well, Noobie). The Star Wars Bundle is already back up on Amazon.



See, I told you that you shouldn't pay attention to that BACK IN STOCK ON DECEMBER 2whatever.


http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01574SORE/?tag=neogaf0e-20

 

[Omnistalgic]

Sony doesn't really have any sales monster franchaises aside from gt, and that is past its prime. I'm guessing >1 million retail npd tracked copies in its first reporting period will make management happy, >2 million and it'll get monster status.

I don't think linear third person adventure games have much pull, so I'm going with 5-800k first month npd. However, if Neil pulls another omg-you've-got-play-this story out of his hat and we are talking 94-96 metacritic, then 2 million is possible. That is really unlikely, it is uncharted after all.

Hmmm...? I don't understand this? Uncharted series keep repeatedly selling more than the previous, and TLOU just did 10 million units! What is "monster" to you? GTA and COD? Those are the top selling games.

Also, GT6 got overshadowed by a lot of PS4 hype...We don't know if GT is passed it's prime. Even the game only on PS3, sold almost 5 million units at 4.7. The first Gran Turismo for PS4 could definitely get another huge seller of 8-10m million again.

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

Speaking about Wii, looks like finally XB1 and PS4 are starting to sell more the second year.
This was expected, at least for me, the Wii in 2008 was a totally tank, but the holidays sales, even if insane, weren't THAT insane like in the summer which was selling easy >400k all months, most time between 500k and 800k.
The really insane holidays were in 2009, with the famous "almost 4 million" in December NPD. ( 3,810,000)

Graph update. next month PS4 and XB1 will surpass Wii.

Numbers ( As for November)

WII - 8,001,000
PS4+XB1 - 7,730,000 ( PS4 54%; XB1 46%)

Goddamn, I forget how much of a BEAST the Wii was.

 

[CosmicQueso]

NPD-only discussion is fine and all, but ultimately the discussion of what is a "giant" or "monster" franchise has to gravitate around worldwide sales.

The US-only approach is near-useless, especially when it comes to Playstation.

You should start a new thread: "UC4 sales in US useless but will be monster. Bloodborne?"

You should get lots of posts.

 

[GKFinns]

Exactly.. Sony partnered with the most anticipated movie of the year and they have shortages of bundles on the day of the release of the movie ... I must say pretty impressive

Spoiler

seems like you all agree with me but you dont want to show your support to my opinion

Looks like it's already back up in stock on Amazon so you can stop your dooming. Here's hoping they won't loose any ground over this

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Sony doesn't really have any sales monster franchaises aside from gt, and that is past its prime. I'm guessing >1 million retail npd tracked copies in its first reporting period will make management happy, >2 million and it'll get monster status.

I don't think linear third person adventure games have much pull, so I'm going with 5-800k first month npd. However, if Neil pulls another omg-you've-got-play-this story out of his hat and we are talking 94-96 metacritic, then 2 million is possible. That is really unlikely, it is uncharted after all.

Since this is a NPD i agree that Sony does not have a monster IP there
But once again don't confuse the US=world .
Both UC and TLOU are 8.5 plus million sellers WW .
Still it going to be interesting to see what UC4 does after TLOU , NDC and marketing power Sony going to put behind UC4 in NA.

 

[igordennis]

You should start a new thread: "UC4 sales in US useless but will be monster. Bloodborne?"

You should get lots of posts.

He could also get a membership upgrade to

Spoiler

junior

 

[hawk2025]

You should start a new thread: "UC4 sales in US useless but will be monster. Bloodborne?"

You should get lots of posts.

Are you sure you want to get into this?

You are bound to loose.

 

[QaaQer]

Since this is a NPD i agree that Sony does not have a monster IP there
But once again don't confuse the US=world .
Both UC and TLOU are 8.5 plus million sellers WW .
Still it going to be interesting to see what UC4 does after TLOU , NDC and marketing power Sony going to put behind UC4 in NA.

Very interesting indeed. Can a linear game sell big time or are we going to rise of the tomb raider numbers? What plot did neil write that was so controversial that Amy had to be removed from the project and one of the actors quit? Can the gameplay hang with other AAA games in 2016?

Lots of cool stories and drama around this game.

 

[John Harker]

NPD-only discussion is fine and all, but ultimately the discussion of what is a "giant" or "monster" franchise has to gravitate around worldwide sales.

The US-only approach is near-useless, especially when it comes to Playstation.

This is an NPD thread, so a US only conversation is exactly the point

 

[CosmicQueso]

You are bound to loose.

+100 points!

 

[hawk2025]

This is an NPD thread, so a US only conversation is exactly the point

Which is precisely my point -- while the discussion very much fits the thread, it's toothless. In determining profitability and size of an IP, the relevant market is the worldwide one.
The Adventures of Cookie and Cream is a monster franchise in my household.

I should make a thread. Maybe we can have a looser discussion about this.

 

[John Harker]

Which is precisely my point -- while the discussion very much fits the thread, it's toothless. In determining profitability and size of an IP, the relevant market is the worldwide one.
The Adventures of Cookie and Cream is a monster franchise in my household.

I should make a thread. Maybe we can have a looser discussion about this.

It's not as simple as that, each market has its own profitability (P&L) and subsidiaries have their own contribution goals to HQ and different titles contribute to different revenue targets in each market... So it's fine to talk about success per market in context.

A game like Might and Magic might mean shit in the US retail market but make a ton of cash on PC in European markets because Eastern European countries eat it up and PC penetration is higher than ps4, to the point it's a bigger franchise in Europe than Uncharted in terms of revenue... So should we only talk about that in this thread? World wide isn't relevant in that scenario.

 

[Massa]

It's not as simple as that, each market has its own profitability (P&L) and subsidiaries have their own contribution goals to HQ and different titles contribute to different revenue targets in each market... So it's fine to talk about success per market in context.

A game like Might and Magic might mean shit in the US retail market but make a ton of cash on PC in European markets because Eastern European countries eat it up and PC penetration is higher than ps4, to the point it's a bigger franchise in Europe than Uncharted in terms of revenue... So should we only talk about that in this thread? World wide isn't relevant in that scenario.

NA retail sales also have an effect on all markets, not everything is isolated per subsidiary. If Might and Magic sells like shit in the US, and another game sells like shit in the US, it's relevant to point out in this thread that Might and Magic does pretty well in Europe, while that other game might be pretty screwed. It's relevant to discuss what the US results for a game mean in its global context.

The US market has a pretty big impact worldwide for most games and it's relevant to discuss what that is when you have the US sales results. You can't pretend the rest of the world doesn't exist in that discussion.

Edit: to clarify my point. Say an Xbox One exclusive sells 200k on NPD, and a PS4 exclusive sells 200k as well. if you just look at NPD's you think both games are doing identically well, when worldwide sales tells us the PS4 exclusive might actually have sold twice or more of what the other game sold. That's very relevant information that you don't get if you limit yourself to NPD numbers discussion. Contextualizing the results provided by NPD in a global context is very relevant to a sales discussion.

 

[Regiruler]

For US.

And no, those legs are not good. 25,000 in 7 months are bad.

I was speaking in terms relative to its first month, not absolute sales. To my knowledge, other niche games usually bomb and stay dead, but Bayo 2 had relatively good word of mouth.

And despite it's long dev cycle, it probably wasn't in full development for the entire period (platinum is known to multitask a lot). A game of its type is also relatively easy to Q&A, and has a manageable amount of new content to create given its small size, so it's not unreasonable to say that Bayo 2 actually had a fairly small budget (you can definitely find one or two cuts if you start lining it up with the first game).

 

[hodayathink]

I was speaking in terms relative to its first month, not absolute sales. To my knowledge, other niche games usually bomb and stay dead, but Bayo 2 had relatively good word of mouth.

Until Dawn has basically tripled its sales in the past 3 months. Those are good legs. Bayonetta 2, not so much.

 

[Regiruler]

Until Dawn has basically tripled its sales in the past 3 months. Those are good legs. Bayonetta 2, not so much.

I thought it was established that until dawn was the exception, not the rule.

I only know of this through hearsay though. I have had no reason to keep up with Until Dawn.

 

[RexNovis]

I thought it was established that until dawn was the exception, not the rule.

I only know of this through hearsay though. I have had no reason to keep up with Until Dawn.

The expression "good legs" implies that the sales tail is exceptional. That's literally what the phrase means. Bayonetta's sales tail is entirely unremarkable and unexceptional therefore it doesn't have "good legs."

 

[slavesnyder]

This is an NPD thread, so a US only conversation is exactly the point

Well, if we enjoy talking about worldwide strategies or changed preferences in business numbers from sales to MAUs, I think there should also be space for these kind of themes, as long as we do not derail it to completely unrelated stuff (like discussing the success of the newest Wrecking Ball Simulator on the german market or if there will be a female link in the next Zelda). Worldwide numbers for consoles and games are shared and discussed regularly.

If we really filter out all themes that are not strictly related to US NPD these threads would be much shorter and way less interesting.
At least for me, this is my go-to place as I get a good overview about everything relevant in the business, strong opinions by a lot of people with way more insight than I have and some good laughs.