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[Road]

I hope all these calls of under a million units are wrong. Neither console should be pulling such low numbers. WiiU I can forgive for not passing the 500k mark. One and PS4 are the defacto standards in the US. Anything less than a million units for each shows a much smaller potential market for them than I could have ever expected. Neither is exactly expensive this holiday.

PS3 also isn't going to crack the 30 million unit mark.

They're not cheap either. The PS4's entry price is the same price as the PS3's was in 2007 ($400), while the Xbox One's ($350) is higher than the 360's ($300). Every console that has sold more than 1 million in November had an entry price of $250 or less.

Also, no console has done so in their first full calendar year (as you already noted, the Wii was supply constrained and likely candidate to have achieved that otherwise, but, as you have already noted as well, neither the PS4 or the XBO are selling this year in the same pace as the Wii was in 2007).

So, as you see, there are a lot of firsts here. I labeled my guesses as pessimistic. I don't think 1 million+ is impossible at all, but I'm putting that in the optimistic range.

brain cannot process

lol Well, yeah, Vita was DOA, but it had some reflex arc that holiday season.

 

[BradleyLove]

No it isn't.

Games with Gold is a service. Party chat is a service. Matchmaking is a service.
Online multiplayer is a feature that you have paid for with the purchase of a game that is locked behind a paywall.
You can keep telling yourself it isn't, but its equivalent to buying a DVD player that only lets you access chapter select, commentary and deleted scenes if you pay a subscription fee.

I can totally agree with that. And for what it's worth, I don't agree with an MP paywall.

But that's still not the same as paying for my internet access twice, which is SteveP's point and complete bollocks.

 

[Joco]

Hope Shadow of Mordor sold enough to warrant a sequel. Easily my GOTY.

 

[Ty4on]

brain cannot process

You're right it was dead back then. The Vita was released in 2012

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Hope Shadow of Mordor sold enough to warrant a sequel. Easily my GOTY.

It is always hard to tell with licensed games what their expectations are for sales. But looks like it has a good two months and the last gen ones are not even out yet. Plus the 25USD black friday deal will most likely add a nice chunk of additional sales^^

 

[QaaQer]

...

Mr.N destroying it today...good to see.

 

[Duxxy3]

I'm expecting XB1 to take November because the price cut and bundles are available the entire month, and not just the final few days. I'm guessing that the BF XB1 bundles sell a little more than the PS4 XB1 bundles, but the difference in sales for the month will come from the 29 (well I guess it's 28 now thanks to walmart and target) days of the month.

December is going to be all about supply. I think that Microsoft lost a significant amount of sales by failing to make enough Sunset Overdrive bundles. That was a total misstep. Not having an MCC bundle is another missed opportunity. Sony needs to keep those holiday bundles in stock throughout December.

 

[Ursiform]

I gotta get my sh*t together.

Sry was trying to work aroun quoteception.

 

[Shining Sunshine]

Still no HW numbers from Microsoft huh...

 

[Culex]

Still no HW numbers from Microsoft huh...

Don't expect ANY numbers unless they beat PS4 in any metric, such as BF or Nov LTD.

 

[serversurfer]

Still no HW numbers from Microsoft huh...

One day soon they'll ship 10M.

 

[2thepoint]

I'm starting to think that Microsoft could take November, but am wavering because that PS4 GTA V bundle will most likely sell out extremely fast - Sony will probably have huge shipments of the bundle for BF.

But, I cannot even fathom the destruction in the NPD November thread if Sony still outsells Microsoft after what can only be described as an absolutely unprecedented month for promotions of the console.

It would be hilarious - I would actually order a pizza and a six pack and just sit down reading the posts all night laughing maniacally whilst viewing the carnage.

 

[Paracelsus]

Is this the new negative record for no numbers whether it's official leak or percentage calculation?

 

[StevieP]

I can totally agree with that. And for what it's worth, I don't agree with an MP paywall.

But that's still not the same as paying for my internet access twice, which is SteveP's point and complete bollocks.

It's pretty easy to understand that my point isn't literal (ie literally paying the isp twice or something ridiculous like that). It's that you're paying for something that should be included with the price of purchase. It's easy to understand that because there is an alternative where not only is that the case, but that it's actually better overall. There is no defence of the concept, and unfortunately those decrying that a single walled garden console would be good for gaming are out to lunch. The open platform shows you why.

 

[CosmicQueso]

It would be hilarious - I would actually order a pizza and a six pack and just sit down reading the posts all night laughing maniacally whilst viewing the carnage.

Ugh.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

No matter what console 'wins' November/December, the good old "but it was supply blocked" excuse will be used ad infinitum.

 

[lonedigitalwolf]

I'm starting to think that Microsoft could take November, but am wavering because that PS4 GTA V bundle will most likely sell out extremely fast - Sony will probably have huge shipments of the bundle for BF.

But, I cannot even fathom the destruction in the NPD November thread if Sony still outsells Microsoft after what can only be described as an absolutely unprecedented month for promotions of the console.

It would be hilarious - I would actually order a pizza and a six pack and just sit down reading the posts all night laughing maniacally whilst viewing the carnage.

Same, it'd be hilarious if after all of the (MS) bleeding Sony still manages to take the top spot or if MS manages to take the win by a miniscule margin with Sony doing practically nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[Duxxy3]

I'm starting to think that Microsoft could take November, but am wavering because that PS4 GTA V bundle will most likely sell out extremely fast - Sony will probably have huge shipments of the bundle for BF.

But, I cannot even fathom the destruction in the NPD November thread if Sony still outsells Microsoft after what can only be described as an absolutely unprecedented month for promotions of the console.

It would be hilarious - I would actually order a pizza and a six pack and just sit down reading the posts all night laughing maniacally whilst viewing the carnage.

I think this is the key for this holiday. Will sony be able to keep the bundle in stock?

 

[rokkerkory]

No matter what console 'wins' November/December, the good old "but it was supply blocked" excuse will be used ad infinitum.

I hope Wii U wins so all the MS and Sony fanboys cry

 

[Welfare]

No matter what console 'wins' November/December, the good old "but it was supply blocked" excuse will be used ad infinitum.

Well seeing as the White SKU only lasted less than a week in November, if it isn't restocked, that could be an excuse given for why the One lost.

 

[fredrancour]

I hope Wii U wins so all the MS and Sony fanboys cry

That'd result in the slowest npd thread in history. Too many peoples' hearts would stop.

 

[rambis]

Neither One, nor PS4 are the 360 or PS3. Neither is likely to have anywhere close to the lifespan. Their sales will have to come from their first three to four years. They're also generally cheaper than their predecessors were at similar points in their life.

We already know what their nonholiday performances are like... and they are far from spectacular. If they don't have very good holiday performances, by this time next year we're all going to be wondering why they've fallen behind PS2 and 360 in similar timeframes.

Don't know that I follow you. Why do they "have" to get their sales in the first 3 or 4 years. Also I'd guess the XB1 and the 360s average selling prices are near identical for the same time period.

 

[pharmboy044]

I think this is the key for this holiday. Will sony be able to keep the bundle in stock?

I doubt it. It looks like those bundles are only for Black Friday. I'm guessing a few hundred thousand have been made. I doubt there are any bundles like MS has for the entire holiday season.

 

[2thepoint]

Same, it'd be hilarious if after all of the (MS) bleeding Sony still manages to take the top spot or if MS manages to take the win by a miniscule margin with Sony doing practically nothing out of the ordinary.

I feel that Microsoft may edge Sony out in November, but not by significant numbers.

Worldwide is going to be bloodshed, but I actually kind of hope Microsoft wins November at least. They do deserve it, and it would give Sony a kick.

But, it will be chaos in the NPD thread if PS4 outsells Xbox One.

 

[Welfare]

Don't know that I follow you. Why do they "have" to get their sales in the first 3 or 4 years. Also I'd guess the XB1 and the 360s average selling prices are near identical for the same time period.

I don't think we should expect another 7th generation in terms of how long they sold. This generation isn't lasting 7-8 years. It'll most likely follow traditional life spans of 5-6 years, so sales will need to happen fast.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I hope Wii U wins so all the MS and Sony fanboys cry

As a labelled Xbox fanboy myself, even I would enjoy that.

Well seeing as the White SKU only lasted less than a week in November, if it isn't restocked, that could be an excuse given for why the One lost.

Perhaps, but overall it is impossible to quantify. The threads usually end up devolving into pictures of 'walls of unsold consoles' at somebodies local Best Buy as proof.

 

[rambis]

I don't think we should expect another 7th generation in terms of how long they sold. This generation isn't lasting 7-8 years. It'll most likely follow traditional life spans of 5-6 years, so sales will need to happen fast.

I don't know why we are supposed to readily believe this. Extending the generation has seemingly worked wonders for Sony/MS. Why should we expect a shorter cycle? Its not like developing these systems are cheap.

 

[lonedigitalwolf]

I don't know why we are supposed to readily believe this. Extending the generation has seemingly worked wonders for Sony/MS. Why should we expect a shorter cycle? Its not like developing these systems are cheap.

I don't get it either, i personally hope we get another 7/8 years out of the current gen.

 

[Welfare]

I don't know why we are supposed to readily believe this. Extending the generation has seemingly worked wonders for Sony/MS. Why should we expect a shorter cycle? Its not like developing these systems are cheap.

You expect MS to seriously drag out the One for 7-8 years against the PS4? That isn't happening. Either MS "relaunches" the console next year to try and recover from a hurt brand, or they will make a new console with a better plan in a few years.

Sony might keep going with the PS4 after an Xbox successor, but I don't think Sony would allow MS to possible regain market share when they release a next gen console.

 

[benny_a]

And games consoles are contracting and the AAA industry is not sustainable.

Why would anyone expect another traditional console cycle at this point.

 

[rambis]

You expect MS to seriously drag out the One for 7-8 years against the PS4? That isn't happening. Either MS "relaunches" the console next year to try and recover from a hurt brand, or they will make a new console with a better plan in a few years.

Sony might keep going with the PS4 after an Xbox successor, but I don't think Sony would allow MS to possible regain market share when they release a next gen console.

Eh, as much as people want to pretend, we don't know how the rest of this generation will play out. MS may lose overall to Sony but if they can continue to show growth over the 360 then I think they keep the ship running.

 

[damisa]

Do non-launch consoles even sell out during the holidays historically? Wii is the one I remember doing so, and that was supply constrained the whole year

I can see consoles selling out on Black Friday specifically, but they should be available throughout December

 

[Duxxy3]

Do non-launch consoles even sell out during the holidays historically? Wii is the one I remember doing so, and that was supply constrained the whole year

I can see consoles selling out on Black Friday specifically, but they should be available throughout December

Core systems - rarely. Bundles - yes.

 

[SparkTR]

You expect MS to seriously drag out the One for 7-8 years against the PS4? That isn't happening. Either MS "relaunches" the console next year to try and recover from a hurt brand, or they will make a new console with a better plan in a few years.

Sony might keep going with the PS4 after an Xbox successor, but I don't think Sony would allow MS to possible regain market share when they release a next gen console.

Or they keep the XBO around for a LONG while, to augment them transitioning the Xbox brand from tentpole, costly hardware launches to a platform agnostic entertainment service with am emphasis on streaming content.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

RIP in peace console gaming if true.

I mean the dying 360 did 650k in November 2013 when next gen consoles were launched.

I think you need to take a look at Nov 2006 numbers.

 

[Jamix012]

I don't know why we are supposed to readily believe this. Extending the generation has seemingly worked wonders for Sony/MS. Why should we expect a shorter cycle? Its not like developing these systems are cheap.

I mean there are reasons on both sides why they would and wouldn't.

Why they would have a long gen
- They're no longer as much in the arms race with PC so keeping pace with current tech isn't as much of an issue
- Diminishing returns, a console launched in 4 years won't look like a generational leap to the average consumer.
- Developing systems and games has, presumably, become much more expensive. Companies want to hold off onto taking a leap into next gen because costs will spiral even higher while revenues may not increase all that much.
- Streaming can partially offset aging hardware if utilised to bring new games to the systems.

Why there won't be a long gen
- This gen isn't nearly as close as last gen. PS4 will run away with it. MS and Ninty will definitely want to get back into the running and that likely involves launching a new console
- While consoles aren't really comparing themselves to PC power as much, this could also work against them. A lot of console gamers could flock to PC if the console market starts to stagnate, like it did towards the end of last gen.
- Smart phones and other devices have set a precedent for yearly upgrades. While consoles almost certainly can't get away with that model, this may have partially desensitized consumers, meaning they're more willing to accept new hardware sooner.
- VR might not be in a "satisfactory" place on current gen hardware. If VR becomes somewhat of a selling point it'll likely demand better hardware to fully realise its potential.

 

[Y2Kev]

All I know is that March April September October November NPD is going to be very interesting!

 

[rokkerkory]

All I know is that March April September October November 2015 NPD is going to be very interesting!

Fixt!

 

[serversurfer]

I doubt it. It looks like those bundles are only for Black Friday. I'm guessing a few hundred thousand have been made. I doubt there are any bundles like MS has for the entire holiday season.

I don't know how many they'll ship for BF weekend, but I expect that'll be the entire supply available at the $400 price point. After that, I think the same, two-game bundles will be available through the end of the year, but they'll go back to $450. If sales aren't quite where they'd like leading in to Christmas, they can just authorize retailers to toss in a $50 gift card or better yet, a 1-year PS+ card to help clear any remaining stock.

After New Year's, they'll probably go back to selling just the console for $400, until the $450 Bloodborne SE

Spoiler

Blood Red?

drops in March. That strategy will carry them through to Holiday '15, when they drop the price $100 to coincide with the Morpheus launch.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Don't know that I follow you. Why do they "have" to get their sales in the first 3 or 4 years. Also I'd guess the XB1 and the 360s average selling prices are near identical for the same time period.

They have to because they aren't going to sell along the same curve as PS3/360.

Much tighter curve reminiscent of the PS2 generation.

Part of that is because of the very conservative designs both used. Both are going to feel dated much faster than either the PS3 or 360 did. They don't have the hardware capability to last anywhere near as long, nor anywhere near the esoteric designs of PS3/360. Meaning it will take significantly less time for their capabilities to be "maxed".

We've already got GAFer's running the same 3rd party efforts at much higher resolutions, framerate, with higher fidelity effects on their (albeit expensive) PCs. This will become more pronounced as time goes on.

 

[PanicFreak]

It is always hard to tell with licensed games what their expectations are for sales. But looks like it has a good two months and the last gen ones are not even out yet. Plus the 25USD black friday deal will most likely add a nice chunk of additional sales^^

Wanted Bros owns the LotR license.

Also, what Black Friday deal? Amazon?

 

[sjagolinzer]

Wanted Bros owns the LotR license.

Also, what Black Friday deal? Amazon?

Target and best buy at least. And that will stack with gcu so 20 bucks there.

 

[jvm]

So about ~324k PS4 and about ~222k XB1.

No.

 

[Biker19]

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

This is an excellent post that should be quoted.

 

[AstuteClass]

I'm starting to think that Microsoft could take November, but am wavering because that PS4 GTA V bundle will most likely sell out extremely fast - Sony will probably have huge shipments of the bundle for BF.

But, I cannot even fathom the destruction in the NPD November thread if Sony still outsells Microsoft after what can only be described as an absolutely unprecedented month for promotions of the console.

It would be hilarious - I would actually order a pizza and a six pack and just sit down reading the posts all night laughing maniacally whilst viewing the carnage.

I would probably do the same. I really hope Sony wins because if MS does, it will only be by a small amount I'm guessing, and won't be all that interesting outside of MS spamming their awful PR. If Sony just sells that little more, even like 5k, the nuclear holocaust of fallout internet-wide will be a free night of entertainment.

The implications of Sony STILL winning will spell very, very bad news for Xbox One though, for I cannot think where MS can go from there. PS4's heavy artillery is coming early next year and Sony still have the price-drop ace-card up their sleeve.

 

[Ursiform]

This is an excellent post that should be quoted.

Okay.

 

[Biker19]

Hardware is not the most important factor. You could have a console with 5M T-flops, but if it doesn't have any worthwhile games, or it's network sucks, or whatever, it is still going to do poorly.
The PS4 is Dominating because their rival screwed up their reputation beyond belief with the reveal of the X1 & E3. And the timing was important as it was the one time that people were actually really paying attention...and then on top of that decided that they could come out with a console priced $100 more than their competitors and people would buy it because it was better?? (which it wasn't)

And so now they are paying for that because once the stone gets rolling, it is hard to stop.....1 person get a PS4, and then his friend gets one, and then his friend gets more friends to get one. ect.

Either way, the graphical advantage the PS4 has is very small. Microsoft's problem is that the 'GAP' is much bigger in the customer's mind than in actuality.
And so your average Joe hears that "PS4 has better graphics", and in his mind, the difference is going to be quite significant.

And so he will go out and get a PS4 even if it is a few dollars more because the perceived value difference is bigger in his mind than in actuality.

Go take a look at some of PS4's best looking 1st party titles, then compare them to Xbox One's best looking title. The graphical differences between each other are definitely not very small.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Did we ever get any numbers? I'm sorry but there's too much thread to go through it all.

 

[stryke]

Did we ever get any numbers? I'm sorry but there's too much thread to go through it all.

Ps4 leads by 1.1 million. Wait next week for the breakdown.

 

[rokkerkory]

Go take a look at some of PS4's best looking 1st party titles, then compare them to Xbox One's best looking title. The graphical differences between each other are definitely not very small.

How big is it exactly?