NPD Sales Results for September 2009

Road said:
Jvm's Gamastura article is up: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/4172/npd_behind_the_numbers_september_.php

And (ugly math ahead), by the average Wii price of U$ 218, we would have 36% of the units sold at U$ 250 and 64% at U$ 200; or 166.6k before the price drop and 296.2k after; or 41.65k per week in four weeks and 296.1k in one week. (I think I'm doing something wrong. Help me out. Was the Wii sold at 200 before the 27th in some stores?)

Also, for Guitar Hero 5: 360 -- 210.8k; PS3 -- 104k; Wii + PS2 - 184k.
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Price drop was rumored for the whole month I think and was confirmed before the last week, so it was probably more like 60k, 50k, 40k, 15k, 296k.
 
I'm shocked that GH5 sold more on the PS3 than the Wii, especially with the Wii having the reputation as the music game system.
 
Road said:
And (ugly math ahead), by the average Wii price of U$ 218, we would have 36% of the units sold at U$ 250 and 64% at U$ 200; or 166.6k before the price drop and 296.2k after; or 41.65k per week in four weeks and 296.1k in one week. (I think I'm doing something wrong. Help me out. Was the Wii sold at 200 before the 27th in some stores?)
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It might help to know the average price in previous months. I mean, I doubt it was $250 on the nose. If it was slightly lower, then the jump during the last week wouldn't need to be so big. Still, it would have to be a pretty big jump to get THAT far from $250.

jvm said:
2lkxpc7.png
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myself said:
TOTAL ownership in weeks
X360: 1.58 billion
Wii: 1.54 billion
PS3: 0.64 billion
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So putting these together again, the results are the same as a few months ago: everyone seems to buy games at a similar rate.

X360: 0.091 games per week
Wii: 0.091 games per week
PS3: 0.092 games per week
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
So putting these together again, the results are the same as a few months ago: everyone seems to buy games at a similar rate.

X360: 0.091 games per week
Wii: 0.091 games per week
PS3: 0.092 games per week
Click to expand...

That's...

... very interesting.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
So putting these together again, the results are the same as a few months ago: everyone seems to buy games at a similar rate.

X360: 0.091 games per week
Wii: 0.091 games per week
PS3: 0.092 games per week
Click to expand...
You need to check your math as everyone knows that the 360 sells software at a massive rate when compared to the other two. Wii owners are happy with their Wii Sports player, PS3 owners are happy with their Blu-ray player and 360 owners are hardcore buying 50 games a year.
FACT :D
 
From Gamasutra article - "During October we expect that average price to drop to precisely $200"

How would that not be correct if there is a single model of Wii and it costs $200?
 
Archie said:
I'm shocked that GH5 sold more on the PS3 than the Wii, especially with the Wii having the reputation as the music game system.
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You have to put it into context, your implication is far fetched at best.

I doubt the PS2 version was anywhere near 80k that would be required to allow the PS3 one to have sold more.

Also GH5 will still be selling on Wii in 2010 just as Rock Band Beatles, I can almost guarantee you GH5 will drop off even the PS3 Top 10 in 30-45 days
 
jay said:
From Gamasutra article - "During October we expect that average price to drop to precisely $200"

How would that not be correct if there is a single model of Wii and it costs $200?
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discounts / forced retail level bundles
 
Stumpokapow said:
forced retail level bundles
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Some (All?) Wal-Marts are forcing bundles on the Wii. IIRC, they're forcing Wii+Wii Play+Nunchuk bundles for full retail price. It's ridiculous. The bundles started about the time that consistent stock was available in the U.S., too.
 
poppabk said:
You need to check your math as everyone knows that the 360 sells software at a massive rate when compared to the other two. Wii owners are happy with their Wii Sports player, PS3 owners are happy with their Blu-ray player and 360 owners are hardcore buying 50 games a year.
FACT :D
Click to expand...
Did you have an orgasm?
 
poppabk said:
You need to check your math as everyone knows that the 360 sells software at a massive rate when compared to the other two. Wii owners are happy with their Wii Sports player, PS3 owners are happy with their Blu-ray player and 360 owners are hardcore buying 50 games a year.
FACT :D
Click to expand...

Joke post or truly sad.
 
donny2112 said:
He also forgot about Wii Fit Plus in October. :lol

Edit:
And that Nintendo launched Wii Sports Resort this year.
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It is also notable that Nintendo has not had a truly big first-party software release on the Wii this year.
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Yeah, that's a pretty big oversight. Unless he means sales-wise and he doesn't consider WSR's sales to be high enough to be considered "truly big", but then he probably should've clarified.
 
donny2112 said:
Some (All?) Wal-Marts are forcing bundles on the Wii. IIRC, they're forcing Wii+Wii Play+Nunchuk bundles for full retail price. It's ridiculous. The bundles started about the time that consistent stock was available in the U.S., too.
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I have no idea how NPD would track that. I know normally a retailer bundle counts as Hardware + Software, but I don't know how that works for average sale price, and I don't know how that works for retailers that are part of the extrapolation portion of NPD's calculations rather than the panel portion.

Spooky interactions at a distance, really.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
It might help to know the average price in previous months. I mean, I doubt it was $250 on the nose. If it was slightly lower, then the jump during the last week wouldn't need to be so big. Still, it would have to be a pretty big jump to get THAT far from $250.



So putting these together again, the results are the same as a few months ago: everyone seems to buy games at a similar rate.

X360: 0.091 games per week
Wii: 0.091 games per week
PS3: 0.092 games per week
Click to expand...


Wow. This is even more reason for publishers to spread out their releases over the year. The average console owner only buys one game every 11 weeks? Man, GAF really is different than the rest of the console owning population...
 
GPsych said:
Wow. This is even more reason for publishers to spread out their releases over the year. The average console owner only buys one game every 11 weeks? Man, GAF really is different than the rest of the console owning population...
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Yup. The epic Christmas Crunch has always been pretty ridiculous.

Of course, I'd expect that at least some of that mentality comes not from misunderstanding how often the average user buys a new game, but from hoping to catch extra sales from the mad holiday shopping rush.

It's the "Why not try Brand X?" effect when the hot product people go into the store to snap up is out of stock. People believe they have to buy /something/ for the gift-giving season so are more willing to grab what is in front of them. Or so the theory goes.

Ironically, thanks to the Modern Warfare 2 scare, it seems that this cycle releases have indeed been spread out a lot more into 2010.
 
donny2112 said:
I don't think they would. You just mentioned forced retailer bundles, and it reminded of the Wal-Mart situation.
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So does this leave my question unanswered or do other retailers do bundles that are tracked?
 
I think what Batman AA proves once and for all is that if you create a really good game, equal quality graphics/sound/etc, and acknowledge their existence, PS3 owners will buy your game.
 
DMeisterJ said:
This is a crying shame. Five really good PSP games all sell terrible. :(
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Is this really all that shocking? I never once suspected the launch of PSP Go to do much to help games get the sales they deserve. The minute they announced the price tag I knew it was going to be more of the same. I guess the lesson is in the absence of a logical strategy from a company, the pirates win?
 
jay said:
So does this leave my question unanswered or do other retailers do bundles that are tracked?
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If a console maker does a bundle, that bundle is counted in hardware numbers but not software numbers. NPD tracks bundles separately, so subscribers can see the exact number of Holiday 2004 PS2 bundles or any other configuration they'd care about. This also applies to different colour SKUs; it is possible to see the exact DSi breakdown between blue and black or PSP go between black and white.

If a retailer does a bundle, that bundle is counted in hardware numbers AND software numbers. Wii + Wii Play would be recorded as 1 Wii Play and 1 Regular Wii, rather than a separate bundle. I do not know how the average sale price for a bundle is reported for either hardware or software.

The Wal-Mart bundles would be even more complicated because NPD tracks Wal-Mart through extrapolation, not through panelling, so it's not clear they'd pick up on those bundles without fiddling with things.

Still, bundles and discounts are the only explanations for why ASPs would vary from the precise existing pricepoints in single-SKU situations.
 
Kusagari said:
Motorstorm 2 sold horribly too. Why is anybody surprised by Arctic Edge's numbers?
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First, it didn't sold horribly at all, in fact it did pretty good since it should be at <1.5 million ww and I bet was a lot more profitable than the first game (but that's my opinion).
Secondly, there's selling "really bad" and then there's selling less than 3k, which is preeetty different.
 
Snipes424 said:
I think what Batman AA proves once and for all is that if you create a really good game, equal quality graphics/sound/etc, and acknowledge their existence, PS3 owners will buy your game.
Click to expand...

Two things I thought about Batman AA.....

Maybe it showed that there is that a lot of dual ps3/360 ownership? I mean it's the first time, if I remember correctly, that the PS3 version of a 3rd party game had content that the 360 version did not. Normally the 3rd party games have time[/striked] exclusive content like the Fallout 3 DLC, GTA4 DLC, etc....

Either that or Batman was the hot new game that came out at the time and a lot of people buying a ps3 because of the price drop were also picking up Batman AA because it was the new hotness, and they also picked up Madden as well (given the uncharacteristically close PS3/360 Madden numbers).
 
MikeE21286 said:
Maybe it showed that there is that a lot of dual ps3/360 ownership? I mean it's the first time, if I remember correctly, that the PS3 version of a 3rd party game had content that the 360 version did not. Normally the 3rd party games have time[/striked] exclusive content like the Fallout 3 DLC, GTA4 DLC, etc....
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Mirror's Edge had a very slight exclusive DLC and Soul Calibur 4's exclusive character on PS3 was pretty unquestionably cooler than 360's ;) I think there may have been a few others, but Batman is the first game that really had a substantial in-game reason to choose PS3 version over 360 version.
 
chandoog said:
It didn't even do 1/10th of what NG2 did in it's first month :lol
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elrechazao said:
But but but, gamers want bouncing breasts in their NG, not bloody action. Little pink clouds > blood.
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I would've mentioned the npd numbers and the disparity between sigma 1 and 2 in the official forum, maybe have a discussion on it but I just thought ppl would think I was "stealth trolling" or something. heh, maybe i'm too cynical for gaf :lol
 
Interesting tidbits from IGN on 5th Cell and the DS 3rd party situation. Cooking Mama is the top selling 3rd party title on the DS, having sold 1.8 million in the US. More interesting is that Drawn to Life did 40k its debut month, and then went on to sell over a million. Damn but those are some legs.
 
The whole exclusive content war is just going to continue to escalate. What platform you buy it for, where you buy it from, which edition you get, etc. It's going to get ugly if it hasn't already.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
So putting these together again, the results are the same as a few months ago: everyone seems to buy games at a similar rate.

X360: 0.091 games per week
Wii: 0.091 games per week
PS3: 0.092 games per week
Click to expand...
So out of curiosity, I graphed a simplified version of this. Erasing the slight differences between platforms, for each month I took the calculated total ownership weeks and multiplied by 0.091 to get a total software number. I'm sure this isn't perfect--like, I'm sure X360 sold a bit more than 59K games launch month, and not every month will sell more software than the last--but I thought it would be interesting to see how closely it mirrors an actual LTD software chart. I could probably whip up a halfway decent LTD software chart using the infrequent tie ratio data I have, but someone else probably already has one they could post?
20091022npdsoftwareish.png
 
jj984jj said:
Their source is VGCz.
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Really? The quote there comes from Martin Defries, head of Rising Star Games, Marvelous' distribution arm in Europe. I would have thought he might have access to accurate shipment numbers at least.
 
Cosmonaut X said:
Really? The quote there comes from Martin Defries, head of Rising Star Games, Marvelous' distribution arm in Europe. I would have thought he might have access to accurate shipment numbers at least.
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yeah, weird if the head of the company is using fake numbers....
 
In comparison, how well did Muramasa sell in Japan? I forget, but I think I remember seeing it put up similar numbers. It's WW LTD might not be so bad in the end.
 
dolemite said:
Where else he could get week one number? Chartzz numbers are going places.
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He may well have week one shipment numbers. He might not have access to NPD sales figures (I don't know how these might be shared amongst the various companies involved) but I'd imagine he would have some idea of how much the game had shipped in the US (especially as it, and the sales figures in Japan, would have some bearing on his company's handling of the title in Europe.
 
Archie said:
I'm shocked that GH5 sold more on the PS3 than the Wii, especially with the Wii having the reputation as the music game system.
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Wii gamers probably don't feel the need to buy a new music game every 3 months.
 
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