NPR Battleground Map: Hillary Clinton Solidifies Lead Against Donald Trump

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Donald Trump's missteps since the conventions have put Hillary Clinton in a dominant position.

If the election were held today, according to the latest NPR analysis of polling, demographics and on-the-ground reporting, Clinton would win in a landslide of 2008 proportions. She has solidified her leads in key battleground states and crosses the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House in the NPR Battleground Map with just states where she already has a significant lead.

In other words, she could lose all of the toss-up states — Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada and Georgia, yes, Georgia now — and still win, as you can see in the map above, 273-174.

Trump has battled a litany of bad headlines, including feuding with a family whose Army captain son was killed in Iraq, declined to support (before endorsing) key Republicans like House Speaker Paul Ryan, joked that "Second Amendment people" could do something about Clinton, and charged that President Obama (and Clinton) "founded" ISIS. He even said he wanted a crying baby taken out of a rally — after a minute earlier saying he liked it. (He later said he would "sponsor" it. ("And the baby will sing someday in Philharmonic Hall," he said.)

It has meant that key voting groups have moved more toward Hillary Clinton. NPR's Asma Khalid, for example, reported on how white, college-educated voters are converting to Clinton. That's a demographic found in important places, like the suburbs of Philadelphia, Denver and Northern Virginia.

It's been about the worst month any Republican who wants Trump to win could have feared.
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More on the changes at the link. Do not grow apathetic!


Truly A Shining City on a Hill
 
Donald Trump accelerated the demographic shifts which were already happening in the electorate by a few cycles, but this map was coming long term either way. Now, if we can just convince progressives to vote more than once every 4 years we will really be on to something.
 
I think they are also being generous with the toss up status for some of those states. Florida and Ohio seem to be leaning Dem consistently in the recent polls. Arizona is at least as up in the air as North Carolina.
 
FL being a tossup is pretty tenuous, but fits their criteria.

NV is just weird and has a lot of machine politics and ground game efforts and generally is just really hard to poll. I think given its instability putting it in Toss-Up seems reasonable.

I don't see a world where Hillary doesn't get Bammers 2012+NC in the end though.
 
h1nch said:
So many dumb people in Texas...
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Baraka in the White House said:
Yep. Embarrassing as hell to be from Texas.
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Black Republican said:
I keep telling yall, It aint happening any time soon. Georgia is atleast somewhat doable
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There are a lot of people who vote democrat in Texas. Most of the major cities vote blue, the people who live out in the rest of the State are the ones who like people like Trump.

If we weren't gerrymandered to hell and didn't have these awful voter I.D. laws, we might be voting more as a swing state. Demographics are shifting though and pretty much guaranteed to change things around here, its just that is going to take a few more election cycles. But it will happen in the near future!
 
newdayrocks said:
What's going on in Florida that they moved from D-leaning to Tossup?
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No fucking clue, seeing a shit ton of Trump bumper stickers on big trucks (white dudes obviously) in the Orlando area, which should surprise no one. Though there was a poll very recently (last week) that shows Hillary way up in central Florida which usually determines who wins the state. I will do everything I can to make sure this terrible state goes blue 3 times in a row, and I am confident that once the votes are counted that Hillary will win it. Best case scenario Florida will turn up meaningless on the map, like with Obama.
 
Trump spends a week in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania nearly off the table for Trump.

I think I'm seeing a strategy for the GOP for the rest of the campaign: lock Trump in a TV studio and convince him he's being "broadcast" when he's actually in complete isolation until December.
 
Trump's been smashing his middle finger multiple times into Ohio's face since Kasich crossed him. To see it still being labeled "Tossup" seems strange.
 
Arcia said:
There are a lot of people who vote democrat in Texas. Most of the major cities vote blue, the people who live out in the rest of the State are the ones who like people like Trump.

If we weren't gerrymandered to hell and didn't have these awful voter I.D. laws, we might be voting more as a swing state. Demographics are shifting though and pretty much guaranteed to change things around here, its just that is going to take a few more election cycles. But it will happen in the near future!
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Actually now its becoming apparent to me. That laws like that and them vilifing illegals is to try and keep control of texas since its close to the border. If they lose texas it may be a wrap country wide for republicans.
 
So even if Trump somehow wins all of the tossup states, he'll still lose? Thats... a pretty commanding lead by hillary then.
 
mcfrank said:
Donald Trump accelerated the demographic shifts which were already happening in the electorate by a few cycles, but this map was coming long term either way. Now, if we can just convince progressives to vote more than once every 4 years we will really be on to something.
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Yup, pretty much.
 
Zach said:
I live in Oklahoma.
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Me too. :( Maybe one of our counties will go blue this year.......

I would like to see some polls here though. I figured the anger surrounding the earthquakes coupled with the poor response from local governments would tip the scales a tiny bit. Would be nice to see.

That and I want to know how SQ 792 is going to go.
 
It's safe to move NV to lean because there's been so little polling there because it's such a hard state to poll and pollsters don't want to deal with it.

I wouldn't have moved FL but sure, why not.
 
Azure Dream said:
Trump's been smashing his middle finger multiple times into Ohio's face since Kasich crossed him. To see it still being labeled "Tossup" seems strange.
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Hillary has not had great poll numbers there. While the chance of winning has increased significantly since the convention, the bump was not to the extent Pennsylvania and New Hampshire had. She's still has middling numbers in Nevada too. At least they've improved in both states, unlike Iowa where they essentially stayed the same.
 
Beartruck said:
So even if Trump somehow wins all of the tossup states, he'll still lose? Thats... a pretty commanding lead by hillary then.
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IIRC even before the Republican primary insanity happened, the hypothetical normal republican candidate was facing a situation where winning nearly all conventional swing states was required to win the election anyway.

Then, of course, a large number of republican primary voters came out and said "fuck restraint, this plausible deniability thing is getting old."
 
Not entirely on topic, but fuckin' a, I love those population/EC representative maps. Functional design gives me a hard on.
 
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