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[perfectchaos007]

I know we never got the October charts, but what do you mean about September?

This will be the second month in a row. thus i said don't let me down 2 months in a row

 

[*Guaraná]

when will the numbers be out ?

 

[The Innocent X]

when will the numbers be out ?

Manana

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I don't know, the GAF aggregate for the PS3 seems rather low to me.

 

[CitizenCope]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=FjeMDvCdrtc

Exciting day for the low lifes that live for this stuff. ME!!!!!!!!!

 

[Cheesemeister]

For the new page...

when will the numbers be out ?

NPD Release: December 13th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)

 

[duk]

im giggling with anticipation

 

[Odysseus]

I have it down for 415k

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6510883



You think it's going to hit over 100k every other week to equal that 600k? If so, I have a bridge to sell you. I feel that I overestimated.

for the record, i predicted an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Vitet]

Manana

A present for you : ñ

Spoiler

banana

 

[Opus Angelorum]

for the record

A disaster, really?

 

[Odysseus]

A disaster, really?

nine days of post-thanksgiving sales. yeah, anything sub-gamecube-standard is an absolute disaster.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

nine days of post-thanksgiving sales. yeah, anything sub-gamecube-standard is an absolute disaster.

I don't know.

I've been fairly critical of the PS3 numbers throughout the year, and considering how bad they have been at certain stages I'm willing to give them a little slack.

 

[AniHawk]

nine days of post-thanksgiving sales. yeah, anything sub-gamecube-standard is an absolute disaster.

They've been sub-Gamecube ever since launch. Shouldn't an unmitigated disaster pretty much be on par? You have to lower your standards.

 

[Loudninja]

nine days of post-thanksgiving sales. yeah, anything sub-gamecube-standard is an absolute disaster.

It may be a disaster to YOU, but in reality it is not, you think going from 100,000? 400,000 is a disaster?They have not sold that many in a long time.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Loudninja, I promise I will never do this again but...I agree with you.

If the PS3 sold less than 250k, I would call that a disaster but certainly not anything close to 500k.

 

[Odysseus]

Loudninja, I promise I will never do this again but...I agree with you.

If the PS3 sold less than 250k, I would call that a disaster but certainly not anything close to 500k.

gamecube routinely sold close to 500k in november, and those were years without an extra week following thanksgiving during npd.

9 days of post-thanksgiving sales means the standard is even higher. if ps3 doesn't do well, which 450k is not doing well at all, and it is over. stick a fork in them, there is no coming back.

 

[3rdman]

Loudninja, I promise I will never do this again but...I agree with you.

If the PS3 sold less than 250k, I would call that a disaster but certainly not anything close to 500k.

You have to take things in its context...for this time of year, 400,000 would not be good. Perhaps disaster is too strong a word but far from something worth celebrating.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Odysseus is right.

Y'all are seriously discounting the extra week after Thanksgiving.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Y'all are seriously discounting the extra week after Thanksgiving.

Oh may bad, this is five weeks we are talking about?

 

[909er]

gamecube routinely sold close to 500k in november, and those were years without an extra week following thanksgiving during npd.

9 days of post-thanksgiving sales means the standard is even higher. if ps3 doesn't do well, which 450k is not doing well at all, and it is over. stick a fork in them, there is no coming back.

Keep in mind that Nintendo had comparatively better holidays than the other systems. The GC sold like crap all year, but still managed to sell decently during the holidays due to the family friendly appeal and sometimes ridiculously good deals.

 

[siamesedreamer]

No its 4 weeks. But, this year Thanksgiving came a week earlier on the calandar than usual.

 

[Odysseus]

Oh may bad, this is five weeks we are talking about?

it's not five weeks, but it is an extra week of holiday sales. thanks to the january shift earlier in the year and thanksgiving falling earlier in november than normal, you have 9 days of holiday sales in november npd instead of 2. think about how many consoles are sold by the day on average between thanksgiving and christmas. or think about it like this: when ps2 was on point, it would sell half a million consoles or more per week between thanksgiving and christmas. gamecube would sell a quarter mil. gamecube.

 

[CrisKre]

I agree with odysseus, Its over 500k for ps3 or bust.

 

[markom58]

The calm before the storm? I think so!!! NPD > playing games :lol

 

[Opus Angelorum]

it's not five weeks, but it is an extra week of holiday sales.

Ok.

So based on that what do you think would be an acceptable and realistic number?

 

[Odysseus]

Ok.

So based on that what do you think would be an acceptable and realistic number?

acceptable would be 600k. 550k would show signs of a pulse. we're talking a price drop and holidays here, people. this isn't august. it's put up or shut up time for the platform. there is no more wait until _____.

it's now or never, my love won't wait.

 

[RBH]

It may be a disaster to YOU, but in reality it is not, you think going from 100,000? 400,000 is a disaster?They have not sold that many in a long time.

It's all relative to the time of the year though. 400,000 is a terrific number during April or August, but hardware and software numbers are ALWAYS inflated during November and December, so the expectations are a bit higher during the holiday season.

I certainly wouldn't call a 400k November for the PS3 a success. I think the main goal of the PS3 should be to beat the mark set by the 360 last November of 510k.

 

[GhaleonEB]

acceptable would be 600k. 550k would show signs of a pulse. we're talking a price drop and holidays here, people. this isn't august. it's put up or shut up time for the platform. there is no more wait until _____.

it's now or never, my love won't wait.

That's important, as well. It's a double-shot - the holidays and a price cut at once. The last price cut doubled sales in the middle of the summer. Another cut, plus the holiday kick off, plus the longer post-Thanksgiving period.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

That's important, as well. It's a double-shot - the holidays and a price cut at once. The last price cut doubled sales in the middle of the summer. Another cut, plus the holiday kick off, plus the longer post-Thanksgiving period.

So if people think the PS3 should be getting towards 600k, then shouldn't the Xbox 360 be hitting nearly 1 million November?

 

[apujanata]

gamecube routinely sold close to 500k in november, and those were years without an extra week following thanksgiving during npd.

9 days of post-thanksgiving sales means the standard is even higher. if ps3 doesn't do well, which 450k is not doing well at all, and it is over. stick a fork in them, there is no coming back.

I am so sorry, but Gamecube DOES NOT routinely sold close to 500K (by close I mean between 450K - 500K). It only managed to do that two times, during 2001 (launch month) & 2003. The other years (2002, 2004 & 2005) does not come close to 500K.

acceptable would be 600k. 550k would show signs of a pulse. we're talking a price drop and holidays here, people. this isn't august. it's put up or shut up time for the platform. there is no more wait until _____.

it's now or never, my love won't wait.

Yeah, how could PS3 catch up to Wii in 2011 if they do not manage to sell at least 500K in Nov 07 (since everyone predict that Wii probably sell around 1 Million in Nov 07) ?

 

[dyls]

Predictions closed at the normal time. I can't always post and say so right on time from work. =P

dyls and jamesinclair were too late.

Whatever. jamesinclair and I will have our own rankings, one in which I have a 2:1 chance of coming in 1st—I can live with those kind of odds.

I know there's probably been endless discussion about this and I don't want to add to the whining, but I don't see why the prediction period couldn't go until the end of the weekend before the numbers are released. Obviously, Pachter and others won't be releasing their predictions over the weekend so there's no danger of unfair info for some, and I would bet there are quite a few Gaffers who don't have much time to post during the week. Just my 2 cents.

Now watch me roll through the First Official jamesinclair-dyls Monthly Video Game Sales Rankings Prediction Spectacularrrrrrr.

 

[Odysseus]

So if people think the PS3 should be getting towards 600k, then shouldn't the Xbox 360 be hitting nearly 1 million November?

700-750k is the floor for 360.

take last year's november and a quarter of december and that's a rough estimate of what this year's november should be.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

700-750k is the floor for 360.

take last year's november and a quarter of december and that's a rough estimate of what this year's november should be.

700k minimum? I think some people are going to be disappointed.

 

[GhaleonEB]

So if people think the PS3 should be getting towards 600k, then shouldn't the Xbox 360 be hitting nearly 1 million November?

There's an argument that it should be close. If the increase from October to November this year follows the same % increase the 360 had last year, it would hit 860k. Factor in the extra sales in the longer post-Thanksgiving period and it could get there. But I think it will hit lower, and predicted a bit over 800k (which is up 60% year over year).

 

[apujanata]

Whatever. jamesinclair and I will have our own rankings, one in which I have a 2:1 chance of coming in 1st—I can live with those kind of odds.

I know there's probably been endless discussion about this and I don't want to add to the whining, but I don't see why the prediction period couldn't go until the end of the weekend before the numbers are released. Obviously, Pachter and others won't be releasing their predictions over the weekend so there's no danger of unfair info for some, and I would bet there are quite a few Gaffers who don't have much time to post during the week. Just my 2 cents.

Now watch me roll through the First Official jamesinclair-dyls Monthly Video Game Sales Rankings Prediction Spectacularrrrrrr.

Nothing prevented you from posting your prediction early. If you wanted to play safe, post it early, as soon as the prediction topic was created by donny2112.

 

[Odysseus]

I am so sorry, but Gamecube DOES NOT routinely sold close to 500K (by close I mean between 450K - 500K). It only managed to do that two times, during 2001 (launch month) & 2003. The other years (2002, 2004 & 2005) does not come close to 500K.

i have gamecube at 468k in 2002, but whatever. the point is that the waiting is over. no more excuses. price drop, extended holiday sales, it's time to see movement.

this year is all about seeing how close a second and third 360 and ps3 can be to wii, and in what order. but obviously the most pressure is on sony at the moment.

 

[apujanata]

There's an argument that it should be close. If the increase from October to November this year follows the same % increase the 360 had last year, it would hit 860k. Factor in the extra sales in the longer post-Thanksgiving period and it could get there. But I think it will hit lower, and predicted a bit over 800k (which is up 60% year over year).

I am starting to have a bad feeling about my prediciton : 580K for 360 and 300K for PS3. I might underestimate them.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

There's an argument that it should be close. If the increase from October to November this year follows the same % increase the 360 had last year, it would hit 860k. Factor in the extra sales in the longer post-Thanksgiving period and it could get there. But I think it will hit lower, and predicted a bit over 800k (which is up 60% year over year).

Always interesting to hear your thoughts.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Y'all are seriously discounting the extra week after Thanksgiving.

Wii has been predicted to have a November bigger than most of PS2's. X360 has been predicted to have a November as big as Xbox or GameCube ever had. DS has been predicted to have a November bigger than all of GBA's. We've still got PS2 going strong in its 8th year. With competition like that, something's gotta give.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

acceptable would be 600k. 550k would show signs of a pulse. we're talking a price drop and holidays here, people. this isn't august. it's put up or shut up time for the platform. there is no more wait until _____.

it's now or never, my love won't wait.

It's over before it began for the PS3 then.

I expected about 410,000 units. I've been dead on with the PS3 every month I've done this. Except for one. Forgot September was five weeks.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Always interesting to hear your thoughts.

Unfortunately I didn't quite finish it. :lol

I think Odysseus is right about 700k being the floor for the 360 to be considered to do really well in November. Compared to last year, Microsoft has -

-Swapped out the Core for the Arcade and dropped it by $20
-Dropped the Premium by $50 and bundled two games
-Released a much broader lineup of titles, especially when 3rd party is factored in. (Including that little Halo 3 game.)
-An extra week of post-Thanksgiving sales

If Microsoft can't get an additional 200k over last with with all of that, they should be concerned.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

If Microsoft can't get an additional 200k over last with with all of that, they should be concerned.

What is more significant though, the PS3 price drop or the things you mention Microsoft have set in place?

 

[GhaleonEB]

What is more significant though, the PS3 price drop or the things you mention Microsoft have set in place?

I'm not sure. I looked into historical performance of price cuts and software releases and couldn't come to any hard determination, so I guessed. There's a lot of factors floating around, and in the mix should be the Wii snarfing on everyone's lunch to some degree. (As joshua said, something's gotta give.) We'll know by this time tomorrow!

 

[Opus Angelorum]

We'll know by this time tomorrow!

Indeed, I'm expecting no surprises though.

 

[apujanata]

Wii has been predicted to have a November bigger than most of PS2's. X360 has been predicted to have a November as big as Xbox or GameCube ever had. DS has been predicted to have a November bigger than all of GBA's. We've still got PS2 going strong in its 8th year. With competition like that, something's gotta give.

That something, IMO, is not only PS3 (as per your prediction), but also X360 (despite their excellent S/W lineup). I hope I didn't do too bad in this month (at least stay at the Top 30 monthly list).

 

[GhaleonEB]

Indeed, I'm expecting no surprises though.

Oh, I am.

 

[chespace]

gamecube routinely sold close to 500k in november, and those were years without an extra week following thanksgiving during npd.

9 days of post-thanksgiving sales means the standard is even higher. if ps3 doesn't do well, which 450k is not doing well at all, and it is over. stick a fork in them, there is no coming back.

Europe and Japan say hi.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Europe and Japan say hi.

This is America, dude.

 

[909er]

Europe and Japan say hi.

Really wish we had a better idea about whats going in Europe, outside of inferences and what few numbers we get.

 

[chespace]

This is America, dude.

The combined forces of Europe and Japan will fight you to the death.

With their amazing numbers.