Cheesemeister
Member
Before anyone asks on this page...
*Guaraná said:
The freaking OP said:
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Official November 2007 NPD Prediction Thread
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Any news on the Canadian numbers?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I dreamt last night that I was being chased by Media-Create and ChartTrack numbers...chespace said:
NPD numbers jumped out and destroyed them... NPD numbers then began to remove my clothes...
I disagree. Last year was the first 360 holiday with the general availability and I am sure that helped the sales. And then we had Gears.GhaleonEB said:
This year, there is more competition (PS3 is available and almost at the same price), 360 is in its third holiday -and- releasing Halo3 in September moved some of the holiday sales to September and October.
360 fans better not set themselves for disappointment.
Psychotext
Member
Ban this sick filth! :lolThunder Monkey said:
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Shoulda been there... my blankets got messy.Psychotext said:
Eh. I don't really take that perspective to NPD threads. It's fun to predict, and interesting to watch the market, and of course the monthly meltdowns are a hoot, but it's disingenuous to dismiss a line of reasoning based on what system someone owns. I'm actually hoping for some surprises, regardless of what system they show up on. It's more fun that way.Gadfly said:
sonycowboy
Member
Odysseus said:
Sorry, but you're an idiot for your continued declarations.
1) Expectations from NeoGAF, simExchange, and Pachter are ~410-420k.
2) You're saying 600k is "acceptable", when the PS3 sold 121k last month? You think a 400% increase is in any way a reasonable or "acceptable" expectation? What would be good to you? 800k??
3) The standard October to November increase historically has been ~200%, less for non-market leading systems overall.
4) The price drop didn't happen this month. It didn't have anywhere near a dramatic effect last month or in July.
I understand you probably think you're being humorous or otherwise like to see yourself as a "voice" of some kind, but your self proclaimed declaration of what the PS3 ~should sell to be decent is beyond ridiculous. It's a joke.
This isn't to say that the PS3 is going to do well or that bad results should be brushed off. Sony's in serious trouble, but that's been true since January. Many months ago, almost everyone had given up on Sony doing much of anything in 2007. They simply don't have the software or pricing to make up any ground.
Odysseus said:
And now, you're saying:
Nov 07 (4 weeks) = Nov 06 (4 weeks) + 1/4 Dec 06 (1 1/4 week)?
There's so many problems with this. First you're asking for 5 1/4 weeks (December is a 5 week month). Second, you're making a crazy assumption that the final week in November, is equal to every other week in December, when the sales in December build to Christmas. The week you're referring to is the slowest week of the 6 weeks of holiday sales to consider.
Perhaps you should start surrounding your posts with
[clueless NPD drivel] [/clueless NPD drivel] tags?
While I agree with you, I was hoping somebody would go after those people that month after month refuse to make any predictions (apparently they are not interested in sale age) yet when the numbers are out start by saying something like: I am disappointed, it did less than I expected, etc. At least Odysseus is being upfront about it and is not resorting to those tactics.sonycowboy said:
Hopefully somebody would call them out when the numbers are out.
well thank you sonycowboy.
but this is it for ps3. forget 2008 without a successful holiday 2007, and just because the expectations are low doesn't make them any less disastrous. 360 pulled 500k last year at $400 with two days of post thanksgiving shopping. if i'm not mistaken, many around here were "disappointed" in that. you were. the mighty playstation with all the marketing surrounding a sku at the same price should get there with all the extra time they have.
of course, why am i defending myself to you? you're not stranger to this. after all, you said last year sales of less than 650k for xbox 360 in november would be "weak [1]," and that "360 fans have LONG since given up hoping for decent sales for the 360 and thus put ridiculously low numbers out there each month so that they can pretend to be "happy" with the results. [2]" (at least you hedged your bet on the ps3 at that time.)
i don't know, maybe that rings truer for ps3 fans. whatever. it's time for it to sell. it's got the games. it's got, well, no worse price than 360 had. it's go time.
but this is it for ps3. forget 2008 without a successful holiday 2007, and just because the expectations are low doesn't make them any less disastrous. 360 pulled 500k last year at $400 with two days of post thanksgiving shopping. if i'm not mistaken, many around here were "disappointed" in that. you were. the mighty playstation with all the marketing surrounding a sku at the same price should get there with all the extra time they have.
of course, why am i defending myself to you? you're not stranger to this. after all, you said last year sales of less than 650k for xbox 360 in november would be "weak [1]," and that "360 fans have LONG since given up hoping for decent sales for the 360 and thus put ridiculously low numbers out there each month so that they can pretend to be "happy" with the results. [2]" (at least you hedged your bet on the ps3 at that time.)
i don't know, maybe that rings truer for ps3 fans. whatever. it's time for it to sell. it's got the games. it's got, well, no worse price than 360 had. it's go time.
sonycowboy said:
Your red letters don't make your analysis any more valid than his. The 360 sold 510k last year at the same price the PS3 now currently holds. And assuming Xenon+Xenos=RSX+CELL, the PS3 still is a better valued piece of hardware due to Bluray and a larger HDD. I think setting the floor at 600k is reasonable, and factoring in the extra week isn't wholly unreasonable.
sonycowboy
Member
Odysseus said:
I don't mind commentary about how it might be bad, and it's definitely not good, but when you quote yourself and try to declare to everyone what's acceptable by using ridiculous standards, then I have to take some issue.
I was down on 360 sales for most of last year. I've been 10 times more down on PS3 sales this year and I do see signs that it may well NEVER recover. But, it's not going to be on the basis of likely unattainable sales for November.
BTW, "no worse price than 360 had."? Uhhh, is there a secret $299 PS3 this year?
I'm mostly messing with you because I know you try to be controversial, but you're playing far too fast and loose with sales and retail information that's impossible or incorrect.
squicken said:
They aren't the same price, from a purely factual stadpoint as I mentioned above. However, I agree that it's not unreasonable from an expectation standpoint that the PS3 sell on par or better than the 360 did last year. That is, until you recognize that it's tracked substantially worse that the 360 did in it's first year ALL YEAR LONG. Why should anyone (and nobody does) expect that the PS3 would suddenly not only change that trend, but substantially beat it?
Again, it's not to make excuses for the PS3, because it's in a bad, bad position. My only point is that most folks have already written off 2007 as unsalvalgeable. And greatly hedged any bets that the PS3 could have any competative future in the US.
OH SHIZZLE.Odysseus said:
And Odysseus is right too, in my opinion. Even though people have predictions in the neighbourhood of 400k, that doesn't mean that those numbers are healthy for the PS3. Every month without a breakout for the PS3 is another nail in its coffin. It's damn near impossible to make up for a whole year of bad sales.
Not that any of this implies "doom" or anything for the PS3, but it will never be market leader and it certainly won't have the PS2's library.
sonycowboy said:
either way you look at it, ps3 sales aren't going to be "good."
actually, if they are above 500k, i'll be pleasantly surprised. but i still wouldn't call them good.
i don't subscribe to the theory that 2008 will be any better than 2007. ps3 already has the games that matter, in my opinion. madden, guitar hero, rock band, etc. the mass market friendly games, at least in the traditional gaming sense. the only real driver of hardware they'll have is gta iv, and it's going to also be on 360. and they'll continue to be without the absolute game of the generation, wii sports.
no, i don't think holiday 07 is anything less than a pulse check for ps3. the further it gets behind, the more likely it will even get farther behind. if anybody is holding out hope they'll finish second in the u.s., this is the season to find out if it has a chance. that's all.
and back to a previous point, yeah, i think sub-700k for 360 in november would also be very, very disappointing.
siamesedreamer
Banned
sonycowboy said:
The week of Black Friday is the slowest sales week leading up to Christmas? Which days are included in that week? The Monday before BF to Sunday? Or does it begin on BF?
That's really an amazing statment. Which week is the "busiest"? The week right before Christmas?
siamesedreamer said:
i think he meant the week after black friday. if i'm not mistaken, the following monday is actually the biggest online shopping day of the year, and i do believe that sunday is pretty big, too. but without weekly sales numbers at my disposal, i must concede that i made some generalizations that may or may not be supported by fact. whatever, can't be helped.
sonycowboy
Member
siamesedreamer said:
No, not the week of black Friday. The week AFTER Black Friday.
http://www.shoppertrak.com/news_article182.php
There have been several reports of this, I think I remember posting one last year. Basically, the week before Christmas is #1, Black Friday week is #2, and then each week before Christmas is bigger than the week before it going to the week after Black Friday. Somewhat dependant on how the weekends fall.
perfectchaos007
Member
Odysseus said:
Please don't jinx us
MightyHedgehog
Member
While it will be interesting to see how PS3 system sales fare in November and December, what really matters, IMO, is how it maintains the holiday boost for the early part of next year. Specifically, software sales.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Completely 100% agree with Odysseus here.
Even if the PS3 manages to sell 510k just as the 360 did last year, it won't amount to much. I've been of the opinion that the PS3 was doomed to NA last place since launch. The PS3 needs to gain ground on Wii60, not scrape close to what the 360 did in its first uncontested year. That's not leapfrogging anything.
It's over. unless the PS3 has a monster month that sees it pushing hardware close to what Wii60 is doing NOW and not last year, the PS3 in America will be set for the generation. Count on it.
Even if the PS3 manages to sell 510k just as the 360 did last year, it won't amount to much. I've been of the opinion that the PS3 was doomed to NA last place since launch. The PS3 needs to gain ground on Wii60, not scrape close to what the 360 did in its first uncontested year. That's not leapfrogging anything.
It's over. unless the PS3 has a monster month that sees it pushing hardware close to what Wii60 is doing NOW and not last year, the PS3 in America will be set for the generation. Count on it.
Why is there a need to rub in the poor performance of the PS3? I think it's widely accepted it will trail behind the other two consoles. 510, 600, 400k, it's all relative at this point.
I'd be more interested in knowing if 360 managed to outsell Wii due to supply issues, that would be the megaton of the month.
I'd be more interested in knowing if 360 managed to outsell Wii due to supply issues, that would be the megaton of the month.
speculawyer
Member
bmf said:
Canada = US/10 + more hockey games.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
If I was rubbing it in I'd end every PS3 mention with a :lol .Deku said:
Obviously, we're not that big of assholes...
Deku said:
Because I think for most gamers on GAF, who played some of the best games ever made the last couple generations on a PlayStation branded console (me included), it's still kind of surreal that the PS3 is in a last place situation this gen. In other words, we're just not used to it and talking about it is almost therapeutic at this point. When the PS3 first debuted (CG videos and all), we all felt it was poised to rule the world upon its release. And like Kutaragi, I myself underestimated just how much price would play a role in its downfall. The past year has just been strange and unreal, Nintendo's massive success included.
IronicallyTwisted
Banned
chespace said:
The 360 has sold fairly predictably though. Better than its father, but still with the Japanese Archilles Heel.
IronicallyTwisted said:
Yup, nothing surreal about how the 360 has performed this gen. I was referring to the past year, which has been all about the diametric opposites of Nintendo and Sony in terms of performance. I didn't think the Wii would do this well. I didn't think the PS3 would do this bad. That's all.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Outside of the complete inverse of Sony and Nintendo's fortunes, this gen is largely the same as last.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I don't think we need this month to see.GhaleonEB said:
We've had an entire year of all three consoles out, and all three selling in very specific ways. The PS3 has barely managed to make a blip past 2 million units in America, Nintendo is passed the 5 million unit mark, and MS is passed the 7 million unit mark. If that doesn't show you how marketshare is going to pan out I don't know what will.
These next two NPD's will do little more then cement the positions we already expect.
It's doing a bit better then MS last endeavor, the Wii is doing a lot better then the GCN, and the PS3 is doing a lot worse then the PS2.GhaleonEB said:
This generation in America might see two console manufacturers excel and one falter.
GhaleonEB said:
I haven't seen it but I'm going to assume it tracked higher than Xbox. Nothing surprising about that, given it's building on a known brand, out the gates first this time, and has the biggest (and best) library.
If it tracked worse than Xbox, then I'll STFU now. :lol
I was surprised how close they've tracked up until the price cut, launch months aside.chespace said:
I was going to dive into the PS3 debate in earnest, but with the numbers now so close, I don't think it's worth it. I'll just reiterate that while there are differences between the situations the similarities are numerous, and the bar the PS3 needs to clear is the 511k the 360 did last year. Much less than that is a disaster, higher than that is good news.
perfectchaos007
Member
Oblivion said:
It's also going to be hard to not break the rules and get banned. I mean how hard is it going to be for the first few posters in that topic to NOT post popcorn gifs?
nextgeneration
Member
Oblivion said:
Yeah, my line, too, so long as the numbers don't disappoint. I'm hoping for BIG numbers across all platforms. And hopefully, Nintendo was able to ship a good amount of units in November.
Old, but a good prelude for tommorrow (though I'm sure many of you have).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZJw9sbOTsc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZJw9sbOTsc