Any way to really verify the # of sales, instead of just downloads?
If those are only downloads, then let's assume that GW has much better conversion rates than other games (8%), say 3 times as much. Which gives us about 25% conversion rate, which is absolutely very generous.
So,
25% x $50,000= $12,500
50% x $12,500 goes to developer = $6,250
This is why I'm pretty much still skeptical of the value proposition XLA brings to indie developers. It's *certainly* a money maker for old arcade games, or even some casual games already available for downloads on the PC (Bejeweled2 , Zuma), games that just needs to be retrofitted with XDK.
But to fully develop an original title for XLA, I think is a much tougher sell. If I'm an indy developer, I'd probably still stick with the PC market as the primary source of digital distribution (especially since the PC casual games industry is so hot now) and will regard XLA as a secondary or maybe even 3rd tier money maker behind mobile gaming.
Still, kudos to MS for this great initiative. I suspect that if XLA is succesful within a year, all of XLA and MSN Games (Zone) will be fully integrated together seamlessly.