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[sonycowboy]

A short snippet from the latest analyst report

Microsoft Press Briefing

The most important announcement at this event was the demonstration of the Xbox 360, planned for release this holiday season. Company management stated that the Xbox 360 would be backward compatible for “most top selling Xbox games”, and pledged “support “ for the current generation Xbox “well into 2006”. Two weeks ago, we noted our
concern that the Xbox 360 may not be backward compatible with Xbox software due to a change in graphics processor chipset manufacturers from Nvidia to ATI. In a separate meeting with Microsoft management, we confirmed that the company has agreed to pay a small royalty to Nvidia to allow the Xbox 360’s ATI chipset to emulate the performance of the Nvidia chipset in reading certain Xbox games. For games written in a single layer
(management assumes that this is a large percentage of Xbox games), the hardware emulation should perform well.

For games written in multiple layers, a further emulation must be provided. The company intends to create software “patches” (i.e., separate emulation programs) for top-selling Xbox games written in multiple layers, and intends to sell the Xbox 360 with a hard drive that is pre-loaded with these patches. We presume that the majority of Xbox games will be backward compatible, and the company assured us that it intends to add patches should consumer demand warrant such action.

We are less confident about Microsoft’s intentions regarding the current generation Xbox. The company’s pledge of “support” is broad, but we believe that it does not equate to “manufacture” of Xboxes. Rather, we believe that the company has stockpiled a number of Nvidia chipsets, and is prepared to manufacture current generation Xboxes through the end of 2005, and perhaps for a few months beyond. The implications of this are difficult to assess: on the one hand, it is likely that the company will focus all of its marketing efforts on the rollout of the Xbox 360, and phase out the Xbox rapidly, resulting in a rapid ramp in sales of the new hardware; on the other hand, it is possible that Microsoft will be unable to satisfy demand for the 360, and may experience a decline in demand for current generation Xbox software, resulting in lower overall industry sales growth this year. We believe that the latter scenario is likely to occur, and note that it could impact overall industry sales growth by approximately 100 bps in 2005.

One final takeaway: Microsoft did not discuss pricing for the Xbox 360, but assured us in our meeting with management that “neither you nor consumers will be shocked” at the price. This implies to us that the device will be priced below $400, and may possibly be priced at $350. As discussed below, we expect Sony’s entry to be priced higher, potentially providing Microsoft with an additional competitive advantage.

 

[JayFro]

So I guess the fanboys can stop bitching now?

 

[Shompola]

Sounds like Marconelly knew what he was talking about.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

got a link?

 

[Pedigree Chum]

So I guess the fanboys can stop bitching now?

I'll stop bitching for one. But lets see the fruits of this before praising them, so far so good, looks like X360's BC is going to be pretty darn good. Don't want to get my hopes up though, so I'll keep my enthusiasm in check.

 

[JayFro]

got a link?

A link would be cool......

 

[sprsk]

221 games for free holy shit i cant get over it.

 

[goodcow]

221 games for free holy shit i cant get over it.

:lol

 

[NotMSRP]

I'm sure at least one of my games will be one of those deemed unwarranted in MS' eyes, i.e. oddball JP Xbox titles.

 

[JayFro]

221 games for free holy shit i cant get over it.

I have pretty much all of those on my Xbox already. :lol

 

[Pedigree Chum]

I have pretty much all of those on my Xbox already. :lol

True. But if I can play them with a controller designed for them (like Nintendo is saying), it'd be worth it for me. Don't know how they'll do that unless there's a bunch of specialty controllers.

 

[kaching]

So I guess the fanboys can stop bitching now?

No, they said they have far too much fun watching you get riled up by their antics, so they're going to find something new to bitch about.

Besides, it wasn't only fanboys who wanted as much BC as they could get in the X360, and its quite possible that its because of everyone's bitching that we're getting as much BC as we're getting in the new Xbox.

 

[MIMIC]

EDIT: N/M

 

[JayFro]

http://forum.gaming-age.com/showthr...&pp=50&highlight=xbox+backwards+compatability



I just want to be in line with seismologist when he purchases a 360 at launch.

 

[sonycowboy]

Not much about pricing, as implied.

True, but it does discuss pricing and that we won't be "shocked".

Only 3 possible price points, IMO.

$299
$329
$349

And, I'd bet on $299

 

[FiRez]

True. But if I can play them with a controller designed for them (like Nintendo is saying), it'd be worth it for me. Don't know how they'll do that unless there's a bunch of specialty controllers.

-Control S = Dpad + ABXY + LR buttons
-Save states
-Graphic filter

I don't know how it can get better than that?

 

[JayFro]

No, they said they have far too much fun watching you get riled up by their antics, so they're going to find something new to bitch about.

Besides, it wasn't only fanboys who wanted as much BC as they could get in the X360, and its quite possible that its because of everyone's bitching that we're getting as much BC as we're getting in the new Xbox.

And so we move on with Blu-Ray now.........commence the bitching!

 

[M3wThr33]

I still like the $300 and $360 for the HDD.

 

[pxleyes]

If we aren't supposed to be shocked, its 360, plain and simple.

 

[sonycowboy]

I still like the $300 and $360 for the HDD.

I think they've been pretty clear that the HDD would be standard, not an optional bundle. Not that it's not possible, but it would kill the possibility of all games using it.

Although, there are a couple of interesting points:

a) I think the BC pushed Microsoft to have the HDD standard. They wouldn't have been able to do it otherwise.

b) NVidia is making out this generation. Royalty from Microsoft & Sony for each and every system sold. (So are ATI, IBM, & EPIC - the true winners of this generation)

 

[MIMIC]

True, but it does discuss pricing and that we won't be "shocked".

Only 3 possible price points, IMO.

$299
$329
$349

And, I'd bet on $299

Sorry. I completely missed the part about the possible $350.

I respectfully withdraw my post.

 

[Sathsquatch]

If consumers aren't going to be shocked, I am guessing that it will cost $299. Really, pricing it any higher than $299 would be too much of a risk for MS to take if they want to compete with Sony this time around.

 

[Rhindle]

Told yas -- last-minute deal with Nvidia.


Anyone want to comment on the "single layer" vs. "programmed in multiple layers" references? I have no idea what the author is trying to say.

 

[Apharmd Battler]

I had a feeling that XBox360 BC would be in the vain of 'Bleemcast', a year from now who's going to care, but this will hopefully placte the masses.....

 

[DopeyFish]

Told yas -- last-minute deal with Nvidia.


Anyone want to comment on the "single layer" vs. "programmed in multiple layers" references? I have no idea what the author is trying to say.

i'm trying to find out myself. maybe it's the emulation of the security layers or something. Because xbox games use both layers no matter what (because of the security system).

But i'm not sure what other things would have to be done with dual layers to tell you the honest truth.

 

[Stinkles]

The harsh reality of backward compatibility...

I am done with my old games.

I only ever played one on my PS2, and that was to se how it looked (Jumping Flash)

I can't sell my old Xbox for shit after 360 comes out.

I am playing my new games now.

 

[TTP]

Sounds like Marconelly knew what he was talking about.

 

[FiRez]

I am done with my old games.

and you work for Bungie?
*heads explodes*

I can't wait to finish H:CE again on X360...maybe It will be the 70th time by the time that I get a X360

 

[DopeyFish]

The harsh reality of backward compatibility...

I am done with my old games.

I only ever played one on my PS2, and that was to se how it looked (Jumping Flash)

I can't sell my old Xbox for shit after 360 comes out.

I am playing my new games now.

just imagine this too... games with dead communities on xbox live might get a little boost from the launch or from people wanting to play the games but never got an xbox.

More people to call me creative names in halo 2! Hoorah!

 

[The Faceless Master]

but wait, i thought all xbox games were on dual layer disks, regardless of if they needed the space or not!?

or at least that's what some people here said... something about copy protection/security...

 

[Particle Physicist]

i guess they were having trouble doing the backwards compatibility themselves..

I think they've been pretty clear that the HDD would be standard, not an optional bundle. Not that it's not possible, but it would kill the possibility of all games using it.

Although, there are a couple of interesting points:

a) I think the BC pushed Microsoft to have the HDD standard. They wouldn't have been able to do it otherwise.

b) NVidia is making out this generation. Royalty from Microsoft & Sony for each and every system sold. (So are ATI, IBM, & EPIC - the true winners of this generation)

whats funny is that MS has to get rid some of their cost saving features that they were planning due to fanboys whining and their fear of getting the xbox's image tainted. i wonder if this will end up hiking the cost of the xbox 360, or if MS will just try to eat the cost.

 

[DopeyFish]

the nv2a has nvidia specific instructions that microsoft sorta needed for the backwards compatibility to work.

 

[The Faceless Master]

i guess they were having trouble doing the backwards compatibility themselves..

whats funny is that MS has to get rid some of their cost saving features that they were planning due to fanboys whining and their fear of getting the xbox's image tainted. i wonder if this will end up hiking the cost of the xbox 360, or if MS will just try to eat the cost.

like microsoft really needs to cut costs.. they are SOOO in the red... let them bleed and save me money...

hell, the real cost cutting measures are already in place.... wifi internet is extra and only 2 front USB means you cant have 4 wired controllers... plus there's that whole 'battery pak and charge cable sold seperately' thing

 

[Shompola]

but wait, i thought all xbox games were on dual layer disks, regardless of if they needed the space or not!?

or at least that's what some people here said... something about copy protection/security...

I think they are talking about how the games have been programmed. I think they just formulated it wrong. Multilayer maybe means to them that you go down several layers until you can code to the metal lol.

 

[Deleted member 284]

Nice to see that MS is making an effort with BC. Before E3, they were pretty much against it, but at least they realized that being the odd man out may hurt them. Good for them.

 

[Vormund]

Is he sniffing his armpit.

 

[Particle Physicist]

like microsoft really needs to cut costs.. they are SOOO in the red... let them bleed and save me money...

hell, the real cost cutting measures are already in place.... wifi internet is extra and only 2 front USB means you cant have 4 wired controllers... plus there's that whole 'battery pak and charge cable sold seperately' thing

actually.. if the xbox project continues to lose millions of dollars, i doubt shareholders will be too happy.. who cares if the rest of MS is making money, no company likes to have a losing business model. i can only see them continuing with this if they actually gain a significant amount of market share this coming gen (very possible).

remember, they have to pay an extra royalty fee that they were not initially counting on.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

actually.. if the xbox project continues to lose millions of dollars, i doubt shareholders will be too happy.. who cares if the rest of MS is making money, no company likes to have a losing business model. i can only see them continuing with this if they actually gain a significant amount of market share this coming gen (very possible).

remember, they have to pay an extra royalty fee that they were not initially counting on.

True. But I think the advantages of this is worth it, especially in the first year which is the most important time for X360 to make an impact (before PS3 gets here). It might cost them more in the long run, but if they're serious about competing with Sony, it's a necessary feature.

 

[JayFro]

True. But I think the advantages of this is worth it, especially in the first year which is the most important time for X360 to make an impact (before PS3 gets here). It might cost them more in the long run, but if they're serious about competing with Sony, it's a necessary feature.

An extra royalty fee on top of the 20 gig HD.........if they sell this thing at $299 they will bleed like no other.

 

[Razoric]

An extra royalty fee on top of the 20 gig HD.........if they sell this thing at $299 they will bleed like no other.

You got inside info on MS' business dealings? Wow. :lol

 

[Lee-T]

Just a heads up(don't think this has been posted), but Toys R Us now has X-box 360 games listed in the system. Call of Duty 2, Quake 4, Condemn Criminal, Frame City Killers, and Full Auto are all listed. The retail is $59.99 on them all. Usually TRU only puts stuff in their system once they confirm it because they don't take preorders way in advance like other places. Also, the cost of those games is showing up as $50, whereas current gen games are priced around $36-$42 usually. Also, the abbreviation is going to be XB360 for the new games and they have a category for PS3 games now, although nothing is listed.

 

[The Faceless Master]

actually.. if the xbox project continues to lose millions of dollars, i doubt shareholders will be too happy.. who cares if the rest of MS is making money, no company likes to have a losing business model. i can only see them continuing with this if they actually gain a significant amount of market share this coming gen (very possible).

remember, they have to pay an extra royalty fee that they were not initially counting on.

yeah, but who cares if they lose millions as long as i save money?

i mean, when you think about it, why does everyone else have 4 controller ports and wifi out of the box, but they don't?

they must be doing something wrong from a design standpoint to not be able to compete on something as basic as that...

 

[Mrbob]

Another reason why XBox 360 rox!

BC lead to needing the Hdd. Hdd is now in every system!

 

[JayFro]

You got inside info on MS' business dealings? Wow. :lol

Well Billy G. took me out for lunch and we talked for hours on end......

 

[sonycowboy]

Just a heads up(don't think this has been posted), but Toys R Us now has X-box 360 games listed in the system. Call of Duty 2, Quake 4, Condemn Criminal, Frame City Killers, and Full Auto are all listed. The retail is $59.99 on them all. Usually TRU only puts stuff in their system once they confirm it because they don't take preorders way in advance like other places. Also, the cost of those games is showing up as $50, whereas current gen games are priced around $36-$42 usually. Also, the abbreviation is going to be XB360 for the new games and they have a category for PS3 games now, although nothing is listed.

The $59.99 has got to be pissing off Microsoft to no end.

They're going to lose a great amount of money to make the console affordable (so will Sony) and the publishers are going to say: "Thank you very much!! Get people to buy those consoles, so we can charge $60 for the games!".

However, the game pricing is going to give some pause to consumers. And it will probably be ruthlessly used by Sony & Nintendo (or their fans) as being too expensive and unfriendly to gamers. This, despite the fact that when those systems come out, EA & Activision will do the exact same thing to them.

The interesting thing will be what Microsoft charges for the games. I think they'll stay at $49.99 (hey, they have no royalty to pay) and this will probably seriously help thier first party titles to do even better sales-wise.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

yeah, but who cares if they lose millions as long as i save money?

i mean, when you think about it, why does everyone else have 4 controller ports and wifi out of the box, but they don't?

they must be doing something wrong from a design standpoint to not be able to compete on something as basic as that...

Hehe, you sound bitter. But it's justified, no reason for why they omittied the above.

 

[JayFro]

The $59.99 has got to be pissing off Microsoft to no end.

They're going to lose a great amount of money to make the console affordable (so will Sony) and the publishers are going to say: "Thank you very much!! Get people to buy those consoles, so we can charge $60 for the games!".

However, the game pricing is going to give some pause to consumers. And it will probably be ruthlessly used by Sony & Nintendo (or their fans) as being too expensive and unfriendly to gamers. This, despite the fact that when those systems come out, EA & Activision will do the exact same thing to them.

The interesting thing will be what Microsoft charges for the games. I think they'll stay at $49.99 (hey, they have no royalty to pay) and this will probably seriously help thier first party titles to do even better sales-wise.

Do you think though that 3rd party devs would get mad at MS for going to a $49.99 price when they are offering titles at $59.99. It kind of undermines third parties in a way.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Do you think though that 3rd party devs would get mad at MS for going to a $49.99 price when they are offering titles at $59.99. It kind of undermines third parties in a way.

Isn't that what Sony does with their 1st party efforts? Shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Barnimal]

the money that MS makes on faceplates, wireless controllers, XBL and premium content wether it be downloadable or premium version of software will be what saves MS this time around. They are in a totally different position than they were with the launch of the xbox.

 

[Bebpo]

I definitely see Sony playing the $59.99 card with advertisements and quotes about how MS is "attempting to ripoff the consumers by charging unjustified higher prices", and then people will hold off until PS3 only to find the PS3 games are $59.99 too and realize they were tricked but say fuck it since they waited that long anyways and buy a PS3.