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[Negotiator]

Its a matter of cost for the GDDR Ram... Just Math.

So, the PS4 could have 16 chips in 2013, but the PS5 won't be able to have the same amount of chips, because...?

Do you honestly believe that the PS5 is going to have 8 GDDR6 chips x 2GB = 16GB only?

I don't even want to comment on the speculation that the PS5 is going to have Jaguar again at 2.6-2.8 GHz...

 

[Inuhanyou]

So Xbox One X costs 499€ without a profit in 2017 at 6TF performance.
That means that 2018 would be able to deliver the same 6TF performance at 399€

Wich leads me to the conclusion that PS5 would either have 8TF for 499€ in 2019
or 8TF for 399€ in 2020.

Your operating your conclusions in the bubble of what is possible right now. We're talking about 2 full generational process node leaps over PS4's in addition to GPU architecture improvements, a completely different RAM structure and much stronger CPU which runs circles around Jaguar

 

[Wordstar]

So, the PS4 could have 16 chips in 2013, but the PS5 won't be able to have the same amount of chips, because...?

Do you honestly believe that the PS5 is going to have 8 GDDR6 chips x 2GB = 16GB only?

I don't even want to comment on the speculation that the PS5 is going to have Jaguar again at 2.6-2.8 GHz...

exactly what i think, jup

Your operating your conclusions in the bubble of what is possible right now. We're talking about 2 full generational process node leaps over PS4's in addition to GPU architecture improvements, a completely different RAM structure and much stronger CPU which runs circles around Jaguar

Yeah

In my calculation i think the next Playstation will be out before another node leap occurs and on the course that AMD GPU Performance gains in the last years which are not so great.
And because of that fast release time frame there will once again be Jaguar built in. This time at around 2,6 to 2,8 ghz (focus has never been 60fps on konsoles)
It will be a minor upgrade just enough to get to 4k native at 30fps with a little headroom for graphical extras. Who knows if it will be called PS5.

This assumption is based on the limit of a 399€ Price Point alone. I just dont think 400$ gets you any further in near time.
I cant imagine sony leaving Microsoft the most Powerful Konsole throne for to long. It just doesnt sit well. Could be wrong though.

If its 499€ then everything changes once again. Hey maybe it will be 499 and only for the Hardcore audience but i dont think thats the way Sonys going.


And in terms of the better graphics everybody is saying that leaps are not as big anymore. Its because of the resoltuion increases.
Just imagine PS4 graphic capability at 720p like PS3. (not that anyone would still want 720p)

But I think we went 4k atleast one generation to soon. Just think 8 to 10 TF with 1080p. Its the 4k resolution that killed next gen for us. Atleast in terms of more geometry and better graphic effects etc. etc.
Think of it that around 4 times the performance is needed alone to render a 1080 game at 4k. There goes your generational leap. Its gone. But hey maybe Sony wanted to sell some TVs. Then Microsoft followed the 4k approach.
And thats the story of how we lost the power of 6 Years of graphic chip developement to a resolution bump alone. Sad story but its history. Would actualy be a good story for Kotaku, Polygon or the likes.

By the way i love my 4k HDR TV ;-)

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

I cant imagine sony leaving Microsoft the most Powerful Konsole throne for to long. It just doesnt sit well. Could be wrong though.

Just like Sony didn't allow MS to have the most powerful console during the PS2 and PS3 generations, right?

Playstation is selling twice to thrice as fast as the Xbox and is so far ahead in sales, market share and mind share that nothing MS does will make much of a difference. Sony couldn't care less about how powerful the X1X is.

 

[gatti-man]

Just like Sony didn't allow MS to have the most powerful console during the PS2 and PS3 generations, right?

Playstation is selling twice to thrice as fast as the Xbox and is so far ahead in sales, market share and mind share that nothing MS does will make much of a difference. Sony couldn't care less about how powerful the X1X is.

It would take two mega exclusives like Gears was when it first came out to slow the Sony train. And with the blending of console generations Sony looks stronger than ever right now

 

[Wordstar]

Just like Sony didn't allow MS to have the most powerful console during the PS2 and PS3 generations, right?

Playstation is selling twice to thrice as fast as the Xbox and is so far ahead in sales, market share and mind share that nothing MS does will make much of a difference. Sony couldn't care less about how powerful the X1X is.

PS3 was more powerful than 360 though. Or am i imagining i played those nauthy dog titles?


Anyway, could be you guys are right and sony will play it slow. And then we will get a more powerfull machine a bit later. I like buying new hardware though.
As soon as possible for me. One X is making me nervous.


What do you guys think about the story how 4k resolution killed a gen? Just interessted in other peoples oppinion to that matter.

 

[Melchiah]

Just like Sony didn't allow MS to have the most powerful console during the PS2 and PS3 generations, right?

The PS2 came out about 20 months before Xbox. The 360 was easier for the 3rd party developers, but it wasn't most powerful like its predecessor when you look at the visuals of the exclusives.

 

[Wordstar]

The PS2 came out about 20 months before Xbox. The 360 was easier for the 3rd party developers, but it wasn't most powerful like its predecessor when you look at the visuals of the exclusives.

yeah third parties looked and ran better on 360 because devs just werent up to the task of programming to the complicated cell processor of the ps3. But first party studiios realy showed what ps3 can do. Its a beast.

 

[Servbot24]

Most powerful console has never been a true selling point if you look at past gens. I doubt Sony is going to overreact unless XB1X has sustained great sales.

 

[Wordstar]

Most powerful console has never been a true selling point if you look at past gens. I doubt Sony is going to overreact unless XB1X has sustained great sales.

Wasnt part of the hype around more and more people moving to PS4 that everybody was hearing from their friends that ps4 has better resolution 1080 where One was stuck to 720 to 900p... Those digital foundry things spread realy fast among groups. One dude in about 5 friends watches those videos and tells everybody else that xbox one is weaker. That was what happend for over a course of 2 years after launch of ps4. Lots of people like having a faster system.

 

[c0de]

Most powerful console has never been a true selling point if you look at past gens. I doubt Sony is going to overreact unless XB1X has sustained great sales.

If you look at past generations you can clearly see that the image of the most powerful console was always something Sony put a lot of effort in to make people believe that.

 

[Melchiah]

Most powerful console has never been a true selling point if you look at past gens. I doubt Sony is going to overreact unless XB1X has sustained great sales.

Looking at the PS2 gen, the power was inconsequential when it came late, after the competition had already gathered a sizable userbase. That's why I find it hard to believe that XBX would change anything. It might sell better than Pro, but it'll probably be largely an upgrade like the Pro was for PS4 owners, instead of something that increases the userbase greatly.

 

[Matt]

Most powerful console has never been a true selling point if you look at past gens. I doubt Sony is going to overreact unless XB1X has sustained great sales.

I think "power" has absolutely been shown to be a selling point. Just not the only selling point.

 

[Melchiah]

I think "power" has absolutely been shown to be a selling point. Just not the only selling point.

Definitely when two systems launch in the same time frame.

 

[Servbot24]

Wasnt part of the hype around more and more people moving to PS4 that everybody was hearing from their friends that ps4 has better resolution 1080 where One was stuck to 720 to 900p... Those digital foundry things spread realy fast among groups. One dude in about 5 friends watches those videos and tells everybody else that xbox one is weaker. That was what happend for over a course of 2 years after launch of ps4. Lots of people like having a faster system.

It's hard to prove but a lot of that is fanboy war fodder. The price, the messaging and MS's blunders all played huge roles. Power does have a role as well, but it's not strong enough to prevent people from buying PS1, PS2 or 360 - i.e. there are almost always factors outweighing power. Maybe this is because stronger hardware often means later release or higher price, but it has trouble overcoming those costs. PS4 didn't make those sacrifices so there was really nothing stopping it.

 

[Spacejaws]

Anecdotally, all those I know who went with the PS4 did so because they heard the games on both would look better on PS4.

That and price were the main reason I know from the people around me, many of whom are Fifa/CoD only players.

 

[yurinka]

Seems PS5 would be released on 2020, so 32 or 64GB of RAM would make more sense than 16GB. My new laptop already has 16GB.

 

[AmyS]

Those who think PS5 will have only 16GB RAM are just silly.

Minimum: 32GB

Type: either GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus (if PS5 is 2019) or HBM3 (if PS5 is in 2020)

If HBM3, interposer / bus would be 1/2 the max that HBM3 supports and half the maximum RAM (32 GB out of 64 GB possible). Overall equivalent to the highest HBM2 configuration (32GB, 1TB/s bandwidth) but at a much lower cost since HBM3 will be inherently cheaper to produce.

 

[Negotiator]

Minimum: 32GB

Type: either GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus (if PS5 is 2019) or HBM3 (if PS5 is in 2020)

384-bit & 32GB how exactly? It should be 256-bit with 16 chips on clamshell configuration.

384-bit would require 24 or 48GB.

If HBM3, interposer / bus would be 1/2 the max that HBM3 supports and half the maximum RAM (32 GB out of 64 GB possible). Overall equivalent to the highest HBM2 configuration (32GB, 1TB/s bandwidth) but at a much lower cost since HBM3 will be inherently cheaper to produce.

Is there any specific reason about why HBM3 should be cheaper to produce?

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Those who think PS5 will have only 16GB RAM are just silly.

Minimum: 32GB

Type: either GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus (if PS5 is 2019) or HBM3 (if PS5 is in 2020)

If HBM3, interposer / bus would be 1/2 the max that HBM3 supports and half the maximum RAM (32 GB out of 64 GB possible). Overall equivalent to the highest HBM2 configuration (32GB, 1TB/s bandwidth) but at a much lower cost since HBM3 will be inherently cheaper to produce.

384-bit & 32GB how exactly? It should be 256-bit with 16 chips on clamshell configuration.

384-bit would require 24 or 48GB.


Is there any specific reason about why HBM3 should be cheaper to produce?

I think Amy means Low Cost HBM, which is made cheaper by the smaller number of TSVs used (albeit with lower memory bw per stack), and the ability to use organic substrates as the interposer, which should be much cheaper than silicon or glass.

As I understand it, HBM3 and HBM-LC are separate products.

Edit:
The jury's still out on "how much" cheaper, HBM-LC will be, however, by Samsung's admission it's their design intent to provide HBM-LC cheaply enough to access the mid-range computing parts markets... so could be doable.

 

[baddvision]

no ps5 2020 full backward compatibility ps1 2 3 4 p v

 

[PeterLegend]

Um you know Sony is still going to target a $399 price that includes a Zen CPU, 10 Teraflop GPU, 1 TB harddrive, 4K bluray drive, 16 GB ram...whatever else i'm missing...

I don't see 32 GB of ram being thrown in...

Will probably launch in late 2019 or 2020...

 

[Kyoufu]

Those who think PS5 will have only 16GB RAM are just silly.

Minimum: 32GB

Type: either GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus (if PS5 is 2019) or HBM3 (if PS5 is in 2020)

If HBM3, interposer / bus would be 1/2 the max that HBM3 supports and half the maximum RAM (32 GB out of 64 GB possible). Overall equivalent to the highest HBM2 configuration (32GB, 1TB/s bandwidth) but at a much lower cost since HBM3 will be inherently cheaper to produce.

Good luck with 32GB.

 

[Pachinko]

I'm not sure why you'd need 32 GB of memory in a console , this thing isn't doing 32 megapixel photo editing , it's just running video games. But 16 ? That's seems like plenty. Especially if 12 are dedicated vram and you've got 4 for all system functions.

This is the thing with consoles going forward , we're at a point where in just a couple more years we can see a big leap forward with CPU /gpu but memory doesn't need to get much bigger. The nvidia 1080ti has 11 GB of ddr5 right now and it only needs that much when running brand new 4K titles , otherwise performance is hindered more by CPU / GPU. What's far more important is the memory bandwidth , the faster the better.

 

[hanspampel]

Ps5 will have 16 or 24 GB
You don't need for 4k UHD textures

RAM is to expensive today to waste it.
And RAM is no bottleneck anymore. Those times are gone

 

[kungfuian]

Not that tech specs aren't interesting but what kind of big jumps are we expecting a PS5 to produce on the software side?

Of course we see an increase in the density of objects drawn, poly count, higher res textures, native 4k, overall physics, etc. But those are all kind of expected/predictable increases.

What I don't hear about is the next jumps in rendering tech a PS5 would be able to produce. For example this gen we have seen significantly better shaders (like material shaders) and lighting models. IMO those are features that really make this gens games stand out from the PS3/360 era.

Any ideas on what we might expect on the software side? Can Sony's next machine produce some dramatic jumps by enabling next gen rendering tech?

 

[the_darkness]

Still laughing my ass off at 240fps

"Great".

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Any ideas on what we might expect on the software side? Can Sony's next machine produce some dramatic jumps by enabling next gen rendering tech?

Let's just hope that all we get isn't an even dirtier Lara Croft...

 

[Poimandres]

Anecdotally, all those I know who went with the PS4 did so because they heard the games on both would look better on PS4.

That and price were the main reason I know from the people around me, many of whom are Fifa/CoD only players.

This was a big deal, but only for the first couple of years. People only buying consoles now probably don't care much about power... They will be buying based on friends, or appealing games. PS4 is hugely dominant on this front.

But yeah.... At the start of this gen one console was cheaper and more powerful... I mean, why would you NOT buy it?

 

[Wordstar]

Let's just hope that all we get isn't an even dirtier Lara Croft...

will go down as a classic in my book

 

[kungfuian]

Let's just hope that all we get isn't an even dirtier Lara Croft...

Yeah I have a Pro, and while I appreciate 4k, better AA/super sampling, performance boosts, and better image quality in my PSVR, these are all just marginal increases; the exact type I'd expect from a mid-gen upgrade.

While the X1X will see a bigger jump over the X1, I still see all of these devices (Ps4, Pro, X1, X1X) as performing roughly the same from a rendering perspective. All the increases are the expected ones (IQ, better textures, higher res, etc).

But those are not the same type of jumps we saw with say the jump from PS3 to PS4. Look at the best game on PS3 vs say Infamous Second Son and the jump is immediately noticeable. I expect when Sony releases a PS5, whatever it's specs may be, it will allow for some form of substantial jump in rendering tech. Whatever the next gen version of Material Shaders is.

 

[TwiztidElf]

I never half step cause I'm not a half stepper
Drink a lot of soda so they call me Dr. Pepper

/RIP Phife Dawg.

Sorry. I just had to do it. Every single time I see this thread, those lyrics come up in my head.

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

So, the PS4 could have 16 chips in 2013, but the PS5 won't be able to have the same amount of chips, because...?

Do you honestly believe that the PS5 is going to have 8 GDDR6 chips x 2GB = 16GB only?

I don't even want to comment on the speculation that the PS5 is going to have Jaguar again at 2.6-2.8 GHz...

Just to reiterate, if they opt to go for a more expensive APU overall, 12 GDDR6 chips x 2GB = 24GB is also a possibility for cost cutting measures depending on launch timeframe. I would take a better CPU/GPU paired with a mere 24 over a weaker CPU/GPU paired with 32, but obviously we don't know what the precise technical landscape in 2019-2020 will be.

Personally at this point I think a 2021 launch is more likely than a 2019 launch, simply because the mid-gen refresh seems like a signal that they will be extending the generation overall, rather than simply saying "oh yeah it's fine, we'll wait until 2018-9 when things are more mainstream for 4k support". A 10-11TF console in 2019 would have been a normal generational improvement over the PS4, but now that we have a 4.2 TF PS4 Pro and a 6TF (12GB) XBX, the bar for quality is raised higher in terms of what we'll expect from a next gen system.

 

[Negotiator]

Just to reiterate, if they opt to go for a more expensive APU overall, 12 GDDR6 chips x 2GB = 24GB is also a possibility for cost cutting measures depending on launch timeframe. I would take a better CPU/GPU paired with a mere 24 over a weaker CPU/GPU paired with 32, but obviously we don't know what the precise technical landscape in 2019-2020 will be.

By 24GB I assume you mean a 384-bit bus, not 192-bit, right?

Any savings due to having less DRAM chips are gonna be negated by the more complex PCB design (one of the reasons X is more expensive).

32GB 256-bit GDDR6 is the way to go IMHO if HBM is not viable for mass production by then.

TL;DR: 24GB is not necessarily cheaper than 32GB. Wide buses (384-bit) cost a lot. 192-bit would be cheaper, but underwhelming. People need to take this into account when speculating about a potential 24GB "middle-ground" solution.

 

[ZOONAMI]

By 24GB I assume you mean a 384-bit bus, not 192-bit, right?

Any savings due to having less DRAM chips are gonna be negated by the more complex PCB design (one of the reasons X is more expensive).

32GB 256-bit GDDR6 is the way to go IMHO if HBM is not viable for mass production by then.

TL;DR: 24GB is not necessarily cheaper than 32GB. Wide buses (384-bit) cost a lot. 192-bit would be cheaper, but underwhelming. People need to take this into account when speculating about a potential 24GB "middle-ground" solution.

I would be pretty surprised if Ps5 has more than 16gb of video ram. I could see a 32gb total box with 16/16 like we will be seeing with most pcs. More likely honestly would be a 16/8 set up as not running windows means 16gb of system ram is pretty nuts in a console. It's pretty unnecessary in PCs too. You might get a couple frames out of having 16gb system ram vs 8gb but it really isn't necessary. Memory is going the be the most expensive thing in the Ps5. Seriously the bom on 16gb of gddr6 will probably be more than the gpu die itself. 32gb is fucking crazy talk right now for even an 1180 Ti, which the ps5 isn't going to even come close too.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

By 24GB I assume you mean a 384-bit bus, not 192-bit, right?

Any savings due to having less DRAM chips are gonna be negated by the more complex PCB design (one of the reasons X is more expensive).

32GB 256-bit GDDR6 is the way to go IMHO if HBM is not viable for mass production by then.

TL;DR: 24GB is not necessarily cheaper than 32GB. Wide buses (384-bit) cost a lot. 192-bit would be cheaper, but underwhelming. People need to take this into account when speculating about a potential 24GB "middle-ground" solution.

It's also worth noting that a larger 384-bit bus will also have an impact on the amount of die area left over for the CPU/GPU on the APU, as a larger bus requires more tracing on the APU die.

So, e.g. if it's a choice between:

• 384-bit bus, with 24GB GDDR6 and 768 GB/s bw, but only enough die space for an 8-core Zen CPU and 56 Navi CUs on the GPU,

• and an APU with a 256-bit bus, 32GB GDDR6 @ 512GB/s memory bw, an 8-core Zen and 72 or even 80 CU Navi-based GPU

Then it's a no brainer, the 256-bit bus wins hands down. Sure the higher memory bandwidth would be nice, but honestly 512GB/s is plenty for rendering even in 4k.

 

[mrklaw]

I would be pretty surprised if Ps5 has more than 16gb of video ram. I could see a 32gb total box with 16/16 like we will be seeing with most pcs. More likely honestly would be a 16/8 set up as not running windows means 16gb of system ram is pretty nuts in a console. It's pretty unnecessary in PCs too. You might get a couple frames out of having 16gb system ram vs 8gb but it really isn't necessary. Memory is going the be the most expensive thing in the Ps5. Seriously the bom on 16gb of gddr6 will probably be more than the gpu die itself. 32gb is fucking crazy talk right now for even an 1180 Ti, which the ps5 isn't going to even come close too.

They could extend the pool of separate ram if that doesn’t make things more complicated architecturally. 16GB GDDR and 8/16 slower system ram could be a good option.

Don’t keep the system ram just for OS. It could also be used as a fast secondary cache to help load assets in faster than the HDD - eg in streaming open world engines

 

[c0de]

They could extend the pool of separate ram if that doesn’t make things more complicated architecturally. 16GB GDDR and 8/16 slower system ram could be a good option.

Don’t keep the system ram just for OS. It could also be used as a fast secondary cache to help load assets in faster than the HDD - eg in streaming open world engines

I know some might think it's a good idea to have the main memory used as a fast cache and Xbox One X is doing exactly that but only for unpatched games, mind. It would be way more efficient to put fast flash memory into the system for the same purpose, like it's been done in usual computers since many years now. It won't be optane memory, of course, but would still be a good cache.
I doubt that the os will take more than 4 gb in the end so a configuration of 16+4 would be something that one can reasonably expect.

 

[RedAssedApe]

Wasnt part of the hype around more and more people moving to PS4 that everybody was hearing from their friends that ps4 has better resolution 1080 where One was stuck to 720 to 900p... Those digital foundry things spread realy fast among groups. One dude in about 5 friends watches those videos and tells everybody else that xbox one is weaker. That was what happend for over a course of 2 years after launch of ps4. Lots of people like having a faster system.

It was also $100 cheaper.

 

[mnannola]

Will it support 240 frames per second? Great

I will throw my PC into a volcano if the PS5 manages to even reach 60fps for most games.

 

[Negotiator]

I know some might think it's a good idea to have the main memory used as a fast cache and Xbox One X is doing exactly that but only for unpatched games, mind. It would be way more efficient to put fast flash memory into the system for the same purpose, like it's been done in usual computers since many years now. It won't be optane memory, of course, but would still be a good cache.
I doubt that the os will take more than 4 gb in the end so a configuration of 16+4 would be something that one can reasonably expect.

Flash/NAND only supports a few thousands of write cycles... are you sure didn't mean slower DRAM (i.e. DDR4)?

 

[c0de]

Flash/NAND only supports a few thousands of write cycles... are you sure didn't mean slower DRAM (i.e. DDR4)?

No, I didn't mean that. How do you think SSHDs work? And that's not even controllable like it would be with a special "programmable" flash memory where devs can decide if they want to use it and how to use it.

 

[Negotiator]

No, I didn't mean that. How do you think SSHDs work? And that's not even controllable like it would be with a special "programmable" flash memory where devs can decide if they want to use it and how to use it.

SSHDs worry me about longevity as well.

 

[cchum]

Not that tech specs aren't interesting but what kind of big jumps are we expecting a PS5 to produce on the software side?

Of course we see an increase in the density of objects drawn, poly count, higher res textures, native 4k, overall physics, etc. But those are all kind of expected/predictable increases.

What I don't hear about is the next jumps in rendering tech a PS5 would be able to produce. For example this gen we have seen significantly better shaders (like material shaders) and lighting models. IMO those are features that really make this gens games stand out from the PS3/360 era.

Any ideas on what we might expect on the software side? Can Sony's next machine produce some dramatic jumps by enabling next gen rendering tech?

Ray tracing has made huge strides with Powervr.

 

[Josman]

Why on earth would they release it with 32GB? I mean, I get the excitement but it's just common sense.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

No, I didn't mean that. How do you think SSHDs work? And that's not even controllable like it would be with a special "programmable" flash memory where devs can decide if they want to use it and how to use it.

SSHDs worry me about longevity as well.

The higher the capacity, the more memory cells there are, thus the less individual cells are read/written within a given number of reads/writes to the mass storage device; thus the higher the overall device reliability.

It's still a concern with SSDs though, and a larger concern the smaller the device capacity. Magnetic platter HDDs are still significantly more reliable.

 

[LowSignal]

Give me the best machine I can get for $399 or $499(pushing it) that still plays PS4 titles and I will buy day 1.

 

[Negotiator]

The higher the capacity, the more memory cells there are, thus the less individual cells are read/written within a given number of reads/writes to the mass storage device; thus the higher the overall device reliability.

It's still a concern with SSDs though, and a larger concern the smaller the device capacity. Magnetic platter HDDs are still significantly more reliable.

SSHDs usually have a single 8GB NAND chip. It's not a huge amount.

 

[Okami Haundo]

Give me the best machine I can get for $399 or $499(pushing it) that still plays PS4 titles and I will but day 1.

That's pretty much the boat that I'm in. I definitely won't have made my way through my PS4 backlog by then, but I'll buy in no questions asked if they offer BC. Given my decision to skip the PS4 Pro, it'll also feel like a substantial upgrade!

 

[Venom.]

Guess it won't be then.

Exactly! I mean I like Pachter as a person. He comes across a genuinely nice, yet a tad conceited. But sometimes his speculation feels like he is picking numbers from his... daydreams. I think most people here could make better predictions.

The new gen will begin a bit later than 2019. Sony are leading the generation and now in the sweet spot where their hardware is making profit so they don't need to rush to start another generation. Nor do they need to fear Microsoft's next-gen machine because they're just about to launch the Xbox One X and they're not likely to launch their next-gen machine in 2019. The improve performance of the console over PS4 will not be enough to upset the market balance either.

As for next-gen specs.... Sony & Microsoft better not even dare to whisper about it unless it has Native 4K with 60fps!