I don't think they'll make the cut this time. I mean, theoretically, they could fudge in support without having the required HDMI standards like Sony did with PS3, but this time round, I think the hardware limitations are too far off.
Was the PS3 'fudged' though? I had what was essentially considered a prototype HDMI 1.3 board. What made it unique at the time though was how programmable it was, and the fact they were forward thinking enough to demand a high clock speed (bandwidth). Once the BD 3D spec came, it was able to be retrofitted because the drive already was fast enough (2x is required instead of the original BD 1.5x speed to get the extra bitrate). On the HDMI end they were already clocked fast enough, so it came down to programming the HDMI to properly sync to the new format. It wasn't missing any hardware.
So the question becomes what sort of HDMI chipset was used in these boards? I know at least for PS4 the HDMI is listed to support 4K for pictures and video, but we know nothing beyond that. HDMI 1.4 at max speed supports 4K30. I'd have to run the math whether it can 4K24 at 10-bit. Even if it can't though, BD 4K players will have the capability to downsample to 8-bit since there are already 8-bit 4K TV's available. Granted that defeats the purpose IMO, but it could still at least mean playback. But what if PS4 or XBone is actually clocked higher? For all we know these are prototype HDMI 2.0 boards. It's really weird a dev hasn't leaked this info.
In terms of bitrates, the BD drive in the PS4 (and I believe XBox One) is 6x. I guess it remains to be seen whether that is sufficient. I imagine so.
Probably the bigger question is HDCP 2.2. We don't know if BD 4K will require it. If it does, I actually don't know if there is required hardware for it, or if it is entirely a software implementation. And again, even if it's a hardware solution ... do either of the consoles have it? We don't know.
While Sony went the crazy route with PS3 and directly contracted the HDMI from Silicon Image IIRC, I'm not sure the that's the case here? It may have been entirely left up to AMD. That said, high programmability is the norm in HDMI boards now, and that's especially true for PC implementations (which this essentially is).
It's a big what if at this point.
I doubt either can read Blu-ray Discs larger the 50GB, for example. Without seeing the specs, we don't know if UHD-BD uses standard dual layer Blu-ray for 50GB discs or whether they use whatever technique they use to get 100GB, but with only a single layer. Either way, it's highly unlikely for them to make a differentiationof what UHD-BDs can be played based on disc capacity.
The assumed spec is the same as BD XL (up to 4 layers). The good news is that it's been openly stated that most BD laser assemblies can in fact be upgraded to the correct focal lengths for it. By design, the laser assemblies are programmable and the focal lengths being used are within the range of most modern BD ROM's. So assuming they aren't doing anything weird in terms of optics, this likely isn't a limiting factor for the consoles.
More likely they'll release a revised model capable of doing it or skip it until next gen, if we're even still getting disc-based consoles next time round.
Certainly I do see this happening if there are issues. Well at least for PS4. Not sure Microsoft gives one shit.
