PC Mag: Appearance of Xbox 2 at CES unlikely

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thorns

Banned
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1746716,00.asp

Xbox 2—Will Bill announce it?
The big speculation in the gaming community surrounding this January's CES is whether or not Bill Gates will announce the next-generation Xbox console during his keynote address. Nobody seems to know for sure, and the whole rumor seems to have started because some game sites jumped the gun and assumed that if Gates is delivering the keynote, it must be for something major like that. Of course the truth is, Gates has delivered the CES keynote for years.

Our prediction? It's not ready yet. The next-generation Xbox will probably be announced at the Game Developers Conference in March, with more formal pricing and details at the big E3 gaming expo in May. Though developers have been working on games for the next Xbox for some time now, the real hardware just hasn't been produced and shaped into true console form yet. ADVERTISEMENT

We wouldn't be surprised to see a video touting "the next generation of Xbox gaming" or something vague like that, which will be entirely pre-rendered video that of what Xbox 2 games are supposed to look like, but isn't actually running in real time on real hardware. We can't completely rule out an Xbox 2 appearance, but it doesn't seem likely.

The Xbox business will almost surely be mentioned during the Bill Gates keynote, though. It's a big part of Microsoft's business, and their best foothold into the living room so far. They might show a few hot upcoming games and talk about the Media Center Extender, and maybe even show a new Xbox game or two.
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I think it will be ANNOUNCED at least. Bill Gates himsef giving the talk ensures lots of publicity for sure. By all accounts, Xbox 2 is one of the next big things for MS, they're putting 100% into it. I'm not really sure where they do plan to go after Xbox 2 though.. Next wednesday can't come soon enough!
 
The console's less than a year away, they better fucking not need to resort to pre-rendered video if they showed anything!

My bet: vague comments about XNA and future game development, clearly about the Xenon but with no specific mentions.
 
Mama Smurf said:
The console's less than a year away, they better fucking not need to resort to pre-rendered video if they showed anything!

My bet: vague comments about XNA and future game development, clearly about the Xenon but with no specific mentions.
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And then GDC... bam!
 
I think they'll say something about it. A general outline of their vision with some new detail (specs?) at least. We may not see anything of it though in terms of videos or hardware etc.
 
Mama Smurf said:
The console's less than a year away, they better fucking not need to resort to pre-rendered video if they showed anything!
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The real-time showing off of proto-Xbox hardware in January 2001 didn't do too many favors either, if I recall. Well, except for the early Xbots who made giant extrapolations from the comments like "This is approximately 10% the power of the final machine." Though I presume they're a bit further on their schedule than that this time around...
 
Well I'd only expect them to announce it by name only... at most, and since it's CES, maybe do a little tech whoring, like saying they're committed to HDTV (not 480p), 6.1 sound and broadband... etc...

basically agiating the water. They dont need to do more, because if they do do more, they put themselves in a position where only their cards are known and not their competitors. they surely dont want that. If the hardware is complete, if the devs are happy and on the merry way with development, they're probably not in a particular hurry to throw blow their entire load right away.
 
I hate the fact that a new system is coming so soon!
I'm not done playing my old ones. Have fun spending big bucks fellas.
I'll be here playing my backlog until the prices drop.
 
SKluck said:
I still don't think its coming out in 2005.
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Where'd you score that crack? Must be some good shit

MS would be foolish not to announce xbox2 at CES..which is the biggest show in the world when it comes to videogames,etc
 
If you're upset about having to spend $299 again ->

Get a job, best thing you'll ever do. You'll probably meet women and get a good start on 'real life' too.

$299 probably used to seem like so much to you, but it won't when you start working.

http://www.monster.com
 
Vortac said:
If you're upset about having to spend $299 again ->

Get a job, best thing you'll ever do. You'll probably meet women and get a good start on 'real life' too.

$299 probably used to seem like so much to you, but it won't when you start working.

http://www.monster.com
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God, what a smarmy post.

It's not about paying $300. It's about not wanting to give up on a console that's nowhere near obsolete.

Do you think game developers and publishers are glad Microsoft is practically rocketing Xbox to its early grave?
 
I think the Next box will trickle to stores this fall, with a small but fairly exclusive games lineup. I mean it's more or less a given now that they will launch this thing in 2005, believe it or not ,it's happening, PS3 WILL be out in 2006, possibly late 2005 in japan, so it'd be stupid not to launch the thing if you think about it.

Sure it sucks for those who just bought an Xbox but it's not like you have to buy a new console, frankly I won't be there unless the thing has backwards compatiblilty and a harddrive that lets me transfer my existing xbox game saves to the new console, I have enough of a backlog right now to keep me busy for 6 months I think, and enough new games I plan to purchase in those 6 months to keep me going through to the end of the year .... In other words I'll be waiting 1.5-2 years before I think of buying a new system.
 
Disco Stu said:
God, what a smarmy post.

It's not about paying $300. It's about not wanting to give up on a console that's nowhere near obsolete.

Do you think game developers and publishers are glad Microsoft is practically rocketing Xbox to its early grave?
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No, but what do you expect them to do, continue to bleed money like a runny faucet? It makes perfect financial sense for them to usher in the next gen as soon as possible.
 
Bauer Action Hour said:
No, but what do you expect them to do, continue to bleed money like a runny faucet? It makes perfect financial sense for them to usher in the next gen as soon as possible.
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Fun Fact: It does not make perfect sense for Microsoft to usher in the next generation of hardware in 2005.

Companies that make consoles traditionally lose money with their hardware, and recoup their losses/earn profits with the software. Consider the Xbox at its stage of development: the cost of producing one has gone down, and its userbase is 10-plus million.

Starting over with a new console means eliminating the userbase (unless Xbox 2 is backward compatible) and taking substantial losses on the new hardware.

No game company wants to see Xbox 2 in 2005. The only reason Microsoft is rushing it to market is to suckerpunch Sony.
 
Fun Fact: It does not make perfect sense for Microsoft to usher in the next generation of hardware in 2005.

Companies that make consoles traditionally lose money with their hardware, and recoup their losses/earn profits with the software. Consider the Xbox at its stage of development: the cost of producing one has gone down, and its userbase is 10-plus million.

Starting over with a new console means eliminating the userbase (unless Xbox 2 is backward compatible) and taking substantial losses on the new hardware.

No game company wants to see Xbox 2 in 2005. The only reason Microsoft is rushing it to market is to suckerpunch Sony.
Click to expand...

I know all of this, but the price of producing an Xbox hasn't gone down significantly enough for it to be tolerable for MS. The set cost of the HD plus the slightly reduced price for Nvidia's components hasn't helped MS at all. It's still bleeding much more money than Sony and Nintendo per unit.

MS will have to bleed money early on to sell Xenon, as does every company when it just launches a system, but it's costs will stabilize to the point of not losing much per unit, much like the Gamecube. That simply can't happen w/ Xbox. Beating Sony to the punch is an added benefit, no doubt.
 
Moegames said:
MS would be foolish not to announce xbox2 at CES..which is the biggest show in the world when it comes to videogames,etc
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Buh? What about E3? The show the gaming industry started because CES wasn't cutting it?
 
Disco Stu said:
Fun Fact: It does not make perfect sense for Microsoft to usher in the next generation of hardware in 2005.

No game company wants to see Xbox 2 in 2005. The only reason Microsoft is rushing it to market is to suckerpunch Sony.
Click to expand...

So what you actually mean is it does make perfect sense for MS to get a console out in 2005 in terms of what's good for MS...it's just not what game companies want.

I'm sure game companies would prefer us to still be playing the PS2 with no new consoles into 2008, but they have to suck it up because generations always end sooner or later and since it will have been 5 1/2 years since the start of this generation by the time the Xenon launches (and that's only if you don't count the DC), this is a perfectly reasonable time for us to be moving on.

Unless of course you're an Xbox exclusive developer not owned by MS...and I can't think of any.
 
Mama Smurf said:
So what you actually mean is it does make perfect sense for MS to get a console out in 2005 in terms of what's good for MS...it's just not what game companies want.

I'm sure game companies would prefer us to still be playing the PS2 with no new consoles into 2008, but they have to suck it up because generations always end sooner or later and since it will have been 5 1/2 years since the start of this generation by the time the Xenon launches (and that's only if you don't count the DC), this is a perfectly reasonable time for us to be moving on.

Unless of course you're an Xbox exclusive developer not owned by MS...and I can't think of any.
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Um, no. Microsoft is looking at larger losses with new hardware. As I've outlined before, it's risking alienating an already established userbase. It's also forcing into obsolence a console that developers are finally comfortable with. Developers will now have to deal with new technology, a market that might not come to fruition, and increased development times for new games. If that makes them hestiate with Microsoft's new console, the consequences could be dire.

It's a gamble, to be certain. And what's good for Microsoft is debatable.
 
But you ignore the overall potential sales if they can pull level or ahead of Sony. Like you say, it's a risk, but in the end this could well lead to much higher profits than sticking with the Xbox for another year.

As I've outlined before, it's risking alienating an already established userbase.
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Yes, it is. But it's going for an even bigger userbase, so you can't say it doesn't make sense, as it does. It's just a risk.

It's also forcing into obsolence a console that developers are finally comfortable with. Developers will now have to deal with new technology, a market that might not come to fruition, and increased development times for new games.
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Or they can continue developing PS2 game until that console's life comes to an end. Developers and publishers are well aware that generations are going to come to and end at some point, and with the new gen new problems always arise. Whether they move onto the Xenon or wait for the PS3, they'll face the same problems.

If that makes them hestiate with Microsoft's new console, the consequences could be dire.
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Indeed. Or sales could take off as the Xenon increases in popularity and consequences could be wonderful.

Basically there's both sense and risk in releasing next year and in waiting until 2006. Saying launching next year doesn't make sense though simply isn't true.
 
A new generation is going to come out whether you like it or not. If you're not ready for it yet, then don't buy the damn thing until you are, it's as simple as that. Nobody is forcing you to buy a new gen system when it comes out. Hell I didn't buy a PS2 until the slim design came out.

Hell I say bring em on, I'm ready for em. If you aren't, wait a while, don't bitch and moan about it. The games for the old systems are still gonna be there.
 
The last time I suggested that Microsoft might be rushing things just a tad with the Xbox 2 in 2005, I got a bunch of arguments mentioning something about "momentum". :P
 
Disco Stu said:
Um, no. Microsoft is looking at larger losses with new hardware. As I've outlined before, it's risking alienating an already established userbase. It's also forcing into obsolence a console that developers are finally comfortable with. Developers will now have to deal with new technology, a market that might not come to fruition, and increased development times for new games. If that makes them hestiate with Microsoft's new console, the consequences could be dire.

It's a gamble, to be certain. And what's good for Microsoft is debatable.
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The biggest payoffs are the ones you decide to roll the dice and gamble the most on.

We'll see what happens, but I think there is a ton of hyperbole coming from your posts.

Like another poster said, developers would love for us to be using our PS2 into 2008, so they can recycle the same engine again and still charge us 50 bucks per title instead of giving us a price break for reusing the same technology from 2002.

Hell, this may actually force EA to optimize Xbox 2 titles instead of their unoptimized PS2 port Xbox titles.
 
Originally Posted by Vortac:
If you're upset about having to spend $299 again ->

Get a job, best thing you'll ever do. You'll probably meet women and get a good start on 'real life' too.

$299 probably used to seem like so much to you, but it won't when you start working.

http://www.monster.com



God, what a smarmy post.

It's not about paying $300. It's about not wanting to give up on a console that's nowhere near obsolete.

Do you think game developers and publishers are glad Microsoft is practically rocketing Xbox to its early grave?
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How do you know if it's obsolete or not. There were those that said the NES wasn't dead, the SNES, the PSX, etc.

I for one am now, officially ready. It's 2005, I want a new console. I bought the DS, I will buy the PSP, and I will absolutely buy Xenon. Personally, I think that this thing is going to be a fucking monster, it's going to have a X800 killing GPU, and the best CPU available ANYWHERE, in a sweet little live enabled piece of plastic heaven.

Oh yea, I'm ready. If you are not, fine, you can read about all the fun I and many more board posters are having.
 
The current gen has run its course after this Christmas. There certainly isn't much left on the current consoles that interests me.

Without new hardware, I think sales will really start to drop off next year. I don't see people paying $50 for another round of Ratchet, Jak and Burnout.

It is time, bring it on.
 
Rhindle said:
The current gen has run its course after this Christmas. There certainly isn't much left on the current consoles that interests me.

Without new hardware, I think sales will really start to drop off next year. I don't see people paying $50 for another round of Ratchet, Jak and Burnout.

It is time, bring it on.
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I sure am glad I'm not you.

There's plenty of great software coming out on all 3 systems this year.

As of right now, there isn't much that's going to change except a bump in graphics.
 
Xenon will have backwards compatibility, if it doesn't it'll be one of the biggest mistakes MS could have made.
 
There's a LOAD of stuff left in current consoles that interest me: Conker, Jade Empire, Oddworld, Super Monkey Ball Deluxe, RE4, Fire Emblem, DK: Jungle Beat, Zelda, Wanda, Kingdom Hearts 2, to name a few which come to mind straight away, but I still want the next gen this year. Fed up of this gen's basic graphical level.

EDIT: Oops, I wrote next year. Forgot.
 
Well I've explained it before, but I'll do it again.

No matter how much I like things, eventually I get tired of them. I love pizza. Pizza's awesome, possibly my favourite food. But if I eat pizza too many times in a row, I get fed up of it. That doesn't mean pizza's suddenly bad, or that I'll never eat it again, it just means that too much of the same thing gets tiring.

Same goes for this gen's graphics. Yes they vary, just like pizzas vary, but they're all on the same basic level (every so often something truly awful looking comes out, true, but that's going worst, not better). And I'm fed up with it. I'll still love game's from this gen next gen, I'll still play them, but it's time for the next level.
 
Tenacious-V said:
Xenon will have backwards compatibility, if it doesn't it'll be one of the biggest mistakes MS could have made.
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don't count on Xenon having BC. it probably won't. I'd say 80 percent chance it won't, 20 percent chance it will, at best.
 
Tenacious-V said:
A new generation is going to come out whether you like it or not. If you're not ready for it yet, then don't buy the damn thing until you are, it's as simple as that. Nobody is forcing you to buy a new gen system when it comes out. Hell I didn't buy a PS2 until the slim design came out.

Hell I say bring em on, I'm ready for em. If you aren't, wait a while, don't bitch and moan about it. The games for the old systems are still gonna be there.
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I was neither bitching nor moaning, but rather attempting to make an argument. Rest assured, I shan't be trying to do that again.

As a writer for many game magazines, I personally welcome the arrival of new consoles.
 
Disco Stu: I was in no way attempting to bash you, I was just making a general statement to a majority. Sorry it came out that way, or if you took it personally.

doncale: I don't think MS is going to literally blow themselves by not putting in backwards compatibility. To have any sucess and edge in next gen, they'll definitely need it. Knowing MS...once Xenon comes out, XBox production will end as they don't wanna bleed anymore out of it. And with them coming out this year, their software lineup most likely will not be overly abundant. So they're gonna want to run with the PS2 approach and have a fallback so ppl can still play old software while waiting for new releases. They'd be shooting themselves in the foot right from the beginning if they didn't.
 
As for BC I've been told by numerous sources that it's still planned for Xbox 2, but they will do it only if they manage to achieve a 100% compatibility, a very tricky task because of some hidden functions NVidia does not want to document. All I know is that it's already being tested.
Tenacious: The Xbox 2 launch lineup and the months after will be loaded with games. A lot of developers have been working on Xenon titles since a long time now with a lot of support from MS. Some of my contacts seemed very happy with the way the new XDK was shaping up, but since they have NDAs for everything they would not tell me any detail. Ho well.

MS learned a lot from their numerous mistakes this gen and if there is one thing MS is known for it's that they do not make the same mistakes twice. I doubt they will be succesful in Japan with Xenon because of numerous reasons, but everywhere else they may have a chance to be equal with Sony. That would be an incredible achievement. I would love to have 2 big companies fighting for the crown next gen and after, this would be the best thing that could happen for us, the gamers.
 
I think people need to get some perspective regarding the "early" death of Xbox to benefit Xbox2.

You just have to see it like MS does, in the long run. By shorten Xbox1 life, Xbox2 could be on the market as "intended" (5-6 year lifespan). If Xbox2 helps out so much that Xbox3 becomes the market leader, then Xbox1 short lifespan will have been worth it. So, for Xbox2 to live longer and make a greater impact on the market, then Xbox1 must live shorter...

It´s that simple, or at least, it makes sense for MS to do so..
 
If the next Xbox is supposed to come out in less than one year there must not be a lot of games coming out for it. How can we not know even one game that's going to be a definite for launch? Do they expect this to sell? Xbox was hyped to hell way in advance, I'm sure they didn't want to do it before since Halo 2 was being released, but it seems to me they're painted themselves into a corner here.

Launching against PS3 is suicide for them so I can understand launching before them, but a year in advanced? All these people are buying Xboxes, to effectively kill the userbase without that much notice is going to piss a lot of consumers off. And with the PSP coming out I wonder how many will just choose to get that for portable gaming and continue playing Halo 2.
 
Hero said:
Launching against PS3 is suicide for them so I can understand launching before them, but a year in advanced? All these people are buying Xboxes, to effectively kill the userbase without that much notice is going to piss a lot of consumers off. And with the PSP coming out I wonder how many will just choose to get that for portable gaming and continue playing Halo 2.
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Yea, I know a bunch of people that were asking for Xboxes for Christmas just for Halo 2; when I told them that Xbox 2 was coming out in 2005, they got pissed at me for ruining their excitement. Another one of my friends bought an Xbox right after Halo 2 came out and sold it about 3 weeks later. I just can't imagine many Xbox owners being happy with this system coming out so soon. Microsoft better hope that PS3 doesn't come out as a much more powerful console, because I really can't see too many Xbox owners rushing out to buy Xbox 2 this year. I bet they'll be able to wait.

Crap, I forgot about backwards compatibility... If MS doesn't incorporate BC in Xbox 2, they are just begging Sony to fuck them in the ass with a 12 inch dildo named PS3.
 
Hero said:
If the next Xbox is supposed to come out in less than one year there must not be a lot of games coming out for it. How can we not know even one game that's going to be a definite for launch?
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Because it has still to be announced. But, however, some developers announced next-gen titles to be ready for a 2005 launch (for example, Madden 2006). So at least these will be Xenon launch games. Not counting all the still unannounced games and those that Microsoft is developing first-party. Believe me, with Xenon they're betting *much* more on a solid games line-up than on hardware supremacy.

Launching against PS3 is suicide for them so I can understand launching before them, but a year in advanced?
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AFAIK, PS3 won't launch one year after Xenon, but only six months.
 
If what Kutaragi said is true, that PS3 will follow PS2 release-schedule, then PS3 will be released in Japan in mars ´06..
 
Hero said:
If the next Xbox is supposed to come out in less than one year there must not be a lot of games coming out for it. How can we not know even one game that's going to be a definite for launch? Do they expect this to sell? Xbox was hyped to hell way in advance, I'm sure they didn't want to do it before since Halo 2 was being released, but it seems to me they're painted themselves into a corner here.
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Simple. Take all studios that released a Xbox exclusive game since september 2003. If they are still working for MS, then they are doing a Xenon title. That includes Bizarre, FASA (but not the Crimson Skies team who has been disbanded), Team Ninja, Rare, and as far as I can tell Digital Anvil plus quite a few others I don't know or can't tell about. Most of these studios will have a launch title. And that's not counting 3rd parties like Ubi and EA, who will most definitely have launch titles too and some japanese titles (1st / 2nd / 3rd party) I know nothing about.
MS won't start hyping 1st/2nd party Xenon games until E3. It's the most obvious way to have a 6 months hype period and not kill the Xbox titles too early. Some 3rd party Xenon titles will be announced and shown before E3 though. I can't tell which one, but they are very high profile devs.
 
Hero said:
Launching against PS3 is suicide for them
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Oh I wouldn't say that. There are some risks in that, but I'd say that is the safest choice. They probably wouldn't get the potential jump in market share that this early launch could lead to, but I would think they would also be a lot less likely to lose it all.

Basically I think they'd continue a slow gain in market share on Sony if they launched around the same time, but MS have gone for the other option.
 
Blimblim said:
Simple. Take all studios that released a Xbox exclusive game since september 2003. If they are still working for MS, then they are doing a Xenon title. That includes Bizarre, FASA (but not the Crimson Skies team who has been disbanded), Team Ninja, Rare, and as far as I can tell Digital Anvil plus quite a few others I don't know or can't tell about. Most of these studios will have a launch title. And that's not counting 3rd parties like Ubi and EA, who will most definitely have launch titles too and some japanese titles (1st / 2nd / 3rd party) I know nothing about.
MS won't start hyping 1st/2nd party Xenon games until E3. It's the most obvious way to have a 6 months hype period and not kill the Xbox titles too early. Some 3rd party Xenon titles will be announced and shown before E3 though. I can't tell which one, but they are very high profile devs.
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That's interesting. Thanks.

I say Perfect Dark Zero :D
 
Moegames said:
Where'd you score that crack? Must be some good shit

MS would be foolish not to announce xbox2 at E3..which is the biggest show in the world when it comes to videogames,etc
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fixed

E3 is the biggest gaming show.. at least here in the US.
 
It's going to be shown between E3 and CES, I forgot the name of the show but it's in Feb and if memory serves me right, it's a microsoft only show.
 
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