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[Rickelodeon]

i think everyone is seriously underestimating paul blart mall cop 2 opening this week which will break the 2 billion mark and win 7 oscars next year including best picture. like it's gonna be this generation's godfather basically. avengers and star wars don't have SHIT on it.

but real talk i'm going with star wars. star wars has and always will be huuuuugeeee, even with the MCU growth. literally a huge portion of my facebook and twitter feeds earlier was full of people sharing the new trailer today, i don't remember that for avengers at all, my aunt even called me saying she saw the new trailer. people have been waiting 30 years to see the original trilogy characters, no amount of underwhelming prequels will stop that, everyone wants to see it. and of course Avengers will still be big, just SW will for sure top it.

 

[Cheebo]

Box office forums are about as informed as GAF when it comes to movie performance. Some of them make solid predictions, but you have to wade through so much fanboy shit, that any consensus is useless.

Oh yeah I know it is just guesses, but thought it would be interesting to see since that is literally all they talk about.

"Team" Star Wars is clearly becoming more and more the dominate side of the two in terms of box-office. Not that Avengers won't be huge.

 

[Blargonaut]

STAR​

The Force Awakens

WARS​

 

[NJDEN]

Star Wars will take both...

 

[Mumei]

The same Star Wars that generates $1 billion in sold merchandise every year?

Don't undersell it now:

“Star Wars” merchandise generated around $3 billion in 2011, but Disney believes that can become a much larger figure by launching new products and expanding to foreign markets. Lucasfilm had previously focused primarily on North America.

And in 2007, that number was $1.5 billion:

According to John Singh, a spokesman for Lucasfilm, Star Wars merchandise and videogames earned $1.5 billion in revenue last year, more than other high-profile movie franchises, including Superman, Spider-Man and Pirates of the Caribbean.

Edit:

In particular, the return of Star Wars in December should boost numbers significantly. "It's the industry behemoth," says Brochstein.

In 1999, when the original Star Wars movies were re-released and a new Star Wars trilogy was launched, sales of its licensed merchandise spiked by 400 percent within a few months.

Good Lord.

 

[Septimus Prime]

That's because even Star Wars fans think the prequel trilogy is mediocre to straight up godawful, and word of mouth hurt the movies (and rightly so, Episode I is offensively terrible). The new trilogy where Lucas isn't around to muck around with it has hype levels over 9000 and rising.

I see that Episode I did actually beat all three Raimi Spider-Man movies. There's a sharp decline in gross both domestically and worldwide for Episodes II and III, though. Like a 40% reduction between I and II, and it goes back up for III but never matches I. Even so, Episode I only barely broke $1 billion, and that's after some 20 years of anticipation.

 

[t-storm]

i think everyone is seriously underestimating paul blart mall cop 2 opening this week which will break the 2 billion mark and win 7 oscars next year including best picture. like it's gonna be this generation's godfather basically. avengers and star wars don't have SHIT on it.

but real talk i'm going with star wars. star wars has and always will be huuuuugeeee, even with the MCU growth. literally a huge portion of my facebook and twitter feeds earlier was full of people sharing the new trailer today, i don't remember that for avengers at all, my aunt even called me saying she saw the new trailer. people have been waiting 30 years to see the original trilogy characters, no amount of underwhelming prequels will stop that, everyone wants to see it. and of course Avengers will still be big, just SW will for sure top it.

"Only at cinemas" meaninggg...

People would have obviously otherwise mistaken this for a straight to DVD release?

 

[Slayven]

Mumei is here? He is usually above entertainment for the The Proletariat.

 

[kswiston]

I see that Episode I did actually beat all three Raimi Spider-Man movies. There's a sharp decline in gross both domestically and worldwide for Episodes II and III, though. Like a 40% reduction. Even so, Episode I only barely broke $1 billion, and that's after some 20 years of anticipation.

As mentioned in this thread a few times, it didn't break $1B. It was at about $920M, and then got a recent 3D re-release that added the rest.

However, in 1999, $920M was the 2nd largest gross of all time (Narrowly beating Jurassic Park and coming nowhere near Titanic)

 

[SkyMasterson]

I think people are forgetting that The Phantom Menace grossed over 1 Billion WW and that was back in '99.

The Avengers made what 600 million domestically?

I mean, it will be very close, but Star Wars just makes sense in terms of making more than Age of Ultron.

I'll say That Age of Ultron will make: $780 Million Domestically and $1.9 Billion WW.

Star Wars: $820 Domestically and 2.1 Billion WW

Edit: Forgot about that 3D release. Still massive numbers for it's time.

Also, Episode 1 came out 16 years after the last film. It'll have been 10 and a half years since Episode III.

Edit Part Duex: JJ Abrams first Star Trek movie made $257 million domestically, a Star Trek movie for crying out loud.

 

[Scully Scully Scoo]

Star wars. I never even heard of avengers till today

 

[Slayven]

Either way Disney will have to resurrect Micheal esiner and Roy Disney to count the money.

 

[Zeyphersan]

Star wars. I never even heard of avengers till today

I know this is a reference I'm missing, I just know it

 

[Mumei]

Mumei is here? He is usually above entertainment for the The Proletariat.

I am not. I read most of these topics; I just don't have anything worth saying.

 

[PeskyToaster]

Don't undersell it now:



And in 2007, that number was $1.5 billion:



Edit:



Good Lord.

I knew it was big but $3 billion in 2011? What was even out then? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit,

 

[Combichristoffersen]

I see that Episode I did actually beat all three Raimi Spider-Man movies. There's a sharp decline in gross both domestically and worldwide for Episodes II and III, though. Like a 40% reduction between I and II, and it goes back up for III but never matches I. Even so, Episode I only barely broke $1 billion, and that's after some 20 years of anticipation.

That's what a shitty first movie in a trilogy will do Let's refer to it as the Jar Jar Effect.

Star Wars as a franchise is bigger worldwide I'd say, and arguably more worth than the Avengers franchise, so I expect SW to be more profitable than Ultron, but maybe not by as much as people expect.

i think everyone is seriously underestimating paul blart mall cop 2 opening this week which will break the 2 billion mark and win 7 oscars next year including best picture. like it's gonna be this generation's godfather basically. avengers and star wars don't have SHIT on it.

but real talk i'm going with star wars. star wars has and always will be huuuuugeeee, even with the MCU growth. literally a huge portion of my facebook and twitter feeds earlier was full of people sharing the new trailer today, i don't remember that for avengers at all, my aunt even called me saying she saw the new trailer. people have been waiting 30 years to see the original trilogy characters, no amount of underwhelming prequels will stop that, everyone wants to see it. and of course Avengers will still be big, just SW will for sure top it.

However godawful Paul Blart 2: Electric Copaloo is, I'd still watch it over more or less any Mahvuhl movie

As for SW Vs Ultron, I saw quite a few people in my Facebook feed going apeshit over the new trailer today, while there's.. uhm.. just one single guy (who's a rabid Marvel fan) who keeps posting about Ultron. Still, anecdotal evidence, tales from my ass etc etc, Ultron's still gonna do gangbusters and earn Disney enough cash to buy an African country or two.

 

[Slayven]

I am not. I read most of these topics; I just don't have anything worth saying.

just messing wiht you

 

[Mumei]

just messing wiht you

;~;

 

[Rhomega Beta]

I was originally betting on Avengers, but after seeing the latest trailer, I'm switching to Star Wars.

 

[3N16MA]

I made an avatar bet with Speedymanic on the Avengers gross last time around. I think he had it under 250M domestic.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Acclaim: Star Wars.
Gross: Star Wars.

 

[JimJamJones]

Don't undersell it now:

Jeez, I really did undersell it. By a lot. And then some.

 

[Abounder]

If Indiana Jones and the damn Crystal Skull can make nearly $800 million ww in 2008...then I think Star Wars will have no problem crossing the billion+ mark. Ultron's best shot is maximizing the summer but then again Star Wars has the box office to itself from X-Mas-Feb basically.

Star Wars is going to win out, no other film franchise rivals it and this is the perfect era for a new trilogy. It's been too long since we've seen the Big 3, Millennium Falcon, etc. Comparing it to the prequels which not only did not feature the Star Wars magic but it also cannibalized itself for digital, and was made before the first iPhone was a thing. In other words: Star Wars is going to be big, and the movie event of the year

 

[foxuzamaki]

Is there any benefit to having a movie come out in theaters around christmas? Maybe people having days off(especially kids) go the the theater more often around the time?

 

[Scully Scully Scoo]

I know this is a reference I'm missing, I just know it

Nope, I just hadnt heard of it but im not into superhero films so what do I know.

 

[Zeyphersan]

I wonder if anyone is going to tally this thread when it's all said and done

I want to place it next to that TDKR vs Avengers thread

 

[kswiston]

I made an avatar bet with Speedymanic on the Avengers gross last time around. I think he had it under 250M domestic.

My favourite was that guy who predicted $60M opening weekend for Avengers and $160M total domestic. I mean, it's one thing to expect it to gross less than the sequel to the highest grossing comic flick of all time. It's another thing to expect Iron Man and his superfriends to gross half of what Iron Man 2 did.

 

[3N16MA]

I think people are forgetting that The Phantom Menace grossed over 1 Billion WW and that was back in '99.

The Avengers made what 600 million domestically?

I mean, it will be very close, but Star Wars just makes sense in terms of making more than Age of Ultron.

I'll say That Age of Ultron will make: $780 Million Domestically and $1.9 Billion WW.

Star Wars: $820 Domestically and 2.1 Billion WW

Edit: Forgot about that 3D release. Still massive numbers for it's time.

Also, Episode 1 came out 16 years after the last film. It'll have been 10 and a half years since Episode III.

Edit Part Duex: JJ Abrams first Star Trek movie made $257 million domestically, a Star Trek movie for crying out loud.

Both are going to top Avatar's domestic gross? There is no way AoU grows at the same rate domestically as it does OS (roughly 25% based on your estimates).

 

[Frostinferno]

Sat and thought about this for 10 minutes and couldn't come up with a good reason for either side. It's going to be a tough call.

Ultimately I'm going to go with Avengers for total Worldwide.

 

[Barkley's Justice]

Star Wars is gonna be the biggest most moniest movie ever.

 

[Entryhazard]

On impulse I'd say that Star Wars will win the most moneys, but I think Avengers will be an unexpectedly strong contender.

Also Avengers has a fair chance at being the better movie, SW is still being made by JJ

 

[mazpratim]

Avengers

3 months later, I still think Avengers is gonna win the box office war, but I think Star Wars might have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score

 

[Renekton]

I think more people know Han Solo than Tony Stark.

 

[mazpratim]

I think more people know Han Solo than Tony Stark.

A Mickey Mouse movie could top Avatar

 

[Discotheque]

what is this obssession with RT scores? which one will be better has nothing to do with rotten tomatoes. that trash site is awful to use as a metric for comparison.

 

[KHlover]

what is this obssession with RT scores? which one will be better has nothing to do with rotten tomatoes. that trash site is awful to use as a metric for comparison.

Yep, all a high RT score really indicates is that a movie was not extremely terrible or incredibly offensive.

What was the cutoff line for a "fresh" review again? A score of 60% or equal from the reviewer? Yeah both movies will certainly get > 95% RT since they're both family friendly blockbusters.

 

[Nibel]

Avengers is great popcorn cinema.

Star Wars is religion.

Star Wars will destroy everything this year.

 

[neorej]

2015 will be owned by Disney. Force Awakens, Ultron, Ant-Man, Inside Out, The Good Dinosaur.

The only things challenging complete Disney domination at the box offices are Jurassic World and Mad Max.

 

[Zeyphersan]

what is this obssession with RT scores? which one will be better has nothing to do with rotten tomatoes. that trash site is awful to use as a metric for comparison.

It's just another metric to place bets on

 

[Game4life]

I am putting my account to a bet

Star Wars The Force Awakens will be the better movie and rake in the most money INTERNATIONALLY than Avengers: Age of Ultron


If Age of Ultron makes more money INTERNATIONALLY and gets a better Tomato score.. then you can ban me

Well there is a high chance Avengers will review better and will have a better box office.

 

[FantasticMrFoxdie]

Star Wars for both


Its been a long time coming.

 

[LaNaranja]

Star Wars will be bigger. As for better, I bet Star Wars reviews better. Personally, I love Star Wars and superheroes so I expect and hope to love both of them equally.

 

[Stiflers Mom]

Star Wars...

It will be the movie that heals a whole generation of people who were children in the early 80ies and got burned by the prequels..

 

[Prototype]

Avengers 2 will make more money. I'm gonna see both though, so whatever.

 

[Glass Rebel]

I am genuinely surprised people are putting in so much stock in Star Wars. I guess the recent surge in popularity plus 3D will push it over Ep I.

 

[Discotheque]

I am genuinely surprised people are putting in so much stock in Star Wars. I guess the recent surge in popularity plus 3D will push it over Ep I.

for the last two trailers it's been all over news coverage. something i never even saw even with avengers and avatar (i think)

 

[Glass Rebel]

for the last two trailers it's been all over news coverage. something i never even saw even with avengers and avatar (i think)

Yeah, I can see that. It's both a testament to how much mindshare SW possesses these days and how well Disney has handled the marketing and flow of information for The Force Awakens.

 

[bebop242]

Throwing my hat into the Star Wars pile. Both domestic and ww.

I was talking to a friend the other day and he is convinced that F7 will outgross Avengers.

 

[Apt101]

I think The Avenger's is the safe bet given its massive popularity with basically every demographic - but I think the hyper levels of Star Wars may help it edge it out. In any event execs at Disney are going to be partying like The Wolf of Wall Street this year regardless.

 

[Exterminieren]

The momentum's clearly with Star Wars, IMO. Avengers is out here in less than a week, but thanks to THAT teaser, Star Wars is all that anyone's talking about.

Don't get me wrong, they'll both clear the billion with ease, but I think Star Wars is going to be the biggest thing since Avatar, whereas I can actually see Age of Ultron not doing quite as well as the first one.