Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens
- Thread starter Malyse
- Start date
- Status
……forgetit
Member
Either way this is a big ticket movie year. Last year the box office as a whole fell flat, but this year will be huge. Furious 7 hitting a billion, Avengers probably doing even more, and Star Wars blowing everything out of the water. This year is going to hurt a lot of wallets.
Honesty from i can tell here (us), no one is even aware Avengers is coming out in 2 weeks.
Messofanego
Banned
Movies hurting wallets? At £10 for each? Nah, that's videogames with all the great games of 2015 and upcoming.
SkyMasterson
Member
You could be right, I think my Avengers total may have been too high haha.
It's difficult to predict. If Guardians of the Galaxy can make $330 million domestically and Capatin America had a huge bump from it's predecessor, so I don't know. Definitely could swing either way.
Though my WW prediction isn't too crazy. Avengers made a little over 1.5 billion and that was 3 years ago. Overseas markets keep expanding like crazy.
giancarlo123x
Banned
Disney wins.
Diprosalic
Banned
i think people here are swept up in SW hype because they are from the US.
looking at SW movies they usually had a 50/50 split Domestic and WW for the prequels:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars2.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars3.htm
it's 60+/40 for the original trilogy.
something like Jurassic Park that came out a bit earlier and grossed about the same has a 40/60 split
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=jurassicpark.htm
same goes for Lion King:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=lionking.htm
and Independence Day:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=independenceday.htm
and all of the Lord of The Rings movies
all these movies had a higher foreign intake that any of the SW movies.
which means to me that SW is a bit more of an US centric franchise and many internationally might not have seen it and/or are not nearly as hyped as the US where SW is a cultural phenomenon. It will certainly do huge numbers WW but i'm giving it to Mahvel Baby. That's just me spitballing, feel free to critique my post.
looking at SW movies they usually had a 50/50 split Domestic and WW for the prequels:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars2.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars3.htm
it's 60+/40 for the original trilogy.
something like Jurassic Park that came out a bit earlier and grossed about the same has a 40/60 split
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=jurassicpark.htm
same goes for Lion King:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=lionking.htm
and Independence Day:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=independenceday.htm
and all of the Lord of The Rings movies
all these movies had a higher foreign intake that any of the SW movies.
which means to me that SW is a bit more of an US centric franchise and many internationally might not have seen it and/or are not nearly as hyped as the US where SW is a cultural phenomenon. It will certainly do huge numbers WW but i'm giving it to Mahvel Baby. That's just me spitballing, feel free to critique my post.
Kleegamefan
K. LEE GAIDEN
Star Wars the Force Awakens will redfine what is considered to be a big movie...
You are not ready for the box office impact this film will have...
Disney's wallet is ready, though....
You are not ready for the box office impact this film will have...
Disney's wallet is ready, though....
ClivePwned
Member
If it's decent, Star Wars will do well. If people love it and see it multiple times, it will make a mint.
Yeah but when was the last $200m Mickey movie D:
Diprosalic
Banned
there's a 0 percent chance of that happening.
Neither movie is doing double what the other is making. Though I am willing to say that both have a legit shot at passing up Avatar (not a big shot, but a shot). Likewise, I'm gonna guess that both films will be not too far from one another in box office numbers.
Aren't Jurassic Park and Lion King splits screwed up by recent re-releases?
Phantom Menace split is 50/50 because the movie had monstrous domestic intake.
Star Wars is huge worldwide. I would be really surprised if Age of Ultron wins (if TFA has decent-to-good word of mouth, which I believe).
Edit: I mean, obviously Titanic dwarfs everything, but Phantom Menace gross was still insane for 1999 and that's with a bad word of mouth. Star Wars with good word of mouth will be ludicrous.
Phantom Menace split is 50/50 because the movie had monstrous domestic intake.
Star Wars is huge worldwide. I would be really surprised if Age of Ultron wins (if TFA has decent-to-good word of mouth, which I believe).
Edit: I mean, obviously Titanic dwarfs everything, but Phantom Menace gross was still insane for 1999 and that's with a bad word of mouth. Star Wars with good word of mouth will be ludicrous.
Only if we include merch, Star Wars is going to be huge for X-mas
Diprosalic
Banned
of course SW is huge WW but it's % wise not nearly as huge as it is in the US.
JP 3D only did 100M and the split was basically the same as before, it was actually a bit more in favour of the domestic intake, so the split was higher before.
Lion King was a bit stronger internationally but even before the rerelease i think it grossed more internationally than any SW ever.
I'm just saying that the hype in the US for SW is obviously insane and i'm not sure it travels all that well in to new territories and it was never on the same level in the old ones. Avengers is new an fresh for everyone and it's more proven in the new markets, i think.
Prequels cannibalized itself by going digital, and did not have the nostalgic star power of the Big 3 and Co. For example in 2008 Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull has a 40/60 split ($~800 million ww http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=indianajones4.htm ), global audiences want to see Ford and even the Millennium Falcon in their marquee roles. What Mahvel has done is impressive but Star Wars has a higher ceiling; the same people who watch the MCU will be lining up for this and then some.
Diprosalic
Banned
what do you mean with "cannibalized itself by going digital?".
do the new emerging markets that bring in most of the new BO intake have nostalgia for the old SW movies? does China care for instance?
Can Crusher
Banned
Yet it's tracking to set a new opening weekend record. Weird.
An important point. Star Wars toys for kids DWARF Marvel toys in sales. It is not even close. The year Avengers came out, 2012. What was the #1 toy brand for young boys? Star Wars. A year of no Star Wars film at all.
Kids are more into Star Wars than any super hero franchise, and that is without a movie. It isn't just the nostalgia factor of the bay boomer generation, kids clearly are all in for Star Wars, more than any other franchise in existence.
There has not been a single year in the past decade Star Wars was not the #1 boys toy brand. A decade without a single live action Star Wars film.
Kids are more into Star Wars than any super hero franchise, and that is without a movie. It isn't just the nostalgia factor of the bay boomer generation, kids clearly are all in for Star Wars, more than any other franchise in existence.
There has not been a single year in the past decade Star Wars was not the #1 boys toy brand. A decade without a single live action Star Wars film.
greatestjediever
Member
I'm not gonna dispute that AoU will outperform TFA WW, but citing box office receipts from movies that were released 13 years apart is tenuous at best. Adjusted for inflation (of which we only really have domestic calculations), the original Star Wars is the second highest grossing film of all time, after Gone With the Wind. The OT, and Episode I all made more money (domestically, AFI) than Avengers, and that includes the Avengers gaining extra revenue from 3D sales - which TFA will now also benefit from.
That said, both will do gangbusters from Disney. My guess is TFA does better domestically, with AoU probably doing more in foreign receipts. Total, I wouldn't be surprised if AoU edges it out based on foreign receipts. I really don't know what kind of impact Star Wars has outside of the US though - Marvel has the benefit on reaching his peak popularity in a time when other emerging markets really have big significance in terms of box office receipts and more people are watching the films worldwide. I don't know if Star Wars is just a relic to everyone outside of the US or if it's the same phenomenon that it is here.
Also, F7 has shown to have a huge impact in other markets. I think both AoU and TFA will outgross it easily, but I think in terms of getting near-ish (>$1billion), it will probably be the movie to do it.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Does that take into account inflation or not because that makes a massive difference
MaddenNFL64
Member
Star Wars gonna take this. Disney don't give a fuck obviously. They get all the monies.
edit: and yes, please stop using numbers without adjusting for inflation, please. Star Wars killed Avengers.
edit: and yes, please stop using numbers without adjusting for inflation, please. Star Wars killed Avengers.
Exterminieren
Banned
You cannot compare between the performance of the Avengers and any Star Wars film, what with inflation and the explosion of international grosses in recent years.
loaf of bread
Member
Star Wars. Chances are 90+% of everyone who's into Avengers will probably also see Star Wars, plus Star Wars will have a bunch of people who grew up with it that'll go see it.
……forgetit
Member
True true
Magic Mushroom
Member
The Force Awakens.
Which movie do you think will make the most money?
Star Wars
Which movie do you think will be the better film?
I think both will be good films but Marvel movies all are based on the same plot lines. Star Wars I hope tries to break the mold a bit. On that I give star wars the edge.
If they were both released on the same day, which would you go see first?
Star Wars and I would be unapologetic about it, Lightsaber duels are a thing for a reason yo.
Do you think there is any other 2015 film that will remotely come close to the money these will make? Or maybe even a video game?
Nope
Star Wars
Which movie do you think will be the better film?
I think both will be good films but Marvel movies all are based on the same plot lines. Star Wars I hope tries to break the mold a bit. On that I give star wars the edge.
If they were both released on the same day, which would you go see first?
Star Wars and I would be unapologetic about it, Lightsaber duels are a thing for a reason yo.
Do you think there is any other 2015 film that will remotely come close to the money these will make? Or maybe even a video game?
Nope
Star Wars adjusted to inflation made something like 1.5 billion USD in today's money..which is about the same that the avengers made.
There's no way in hell that Star Wars is going to double what Avengers is going to make this year.
I also have to wonder if the prequels tarnished the branding of Star Wars a bit......
At the end of the day it's really too close to call. Marvel is on fire these days and Star Wars is Star Wars.
Only the first film. And it's skewed because Star Wars has had several re-releases (much like Gone With The Wind, the all time adjusted for inflation, which has had many re-releases over the decades).
But the new Star Wars isn't going to even sniff the original film in ticket sales/inflation adjusted gross, because it's a different industry.
JimJamJones
Member
You realize that, with inflation, the original film is the 2nd highest grossing film of ALL-TIME in North America and 3rd worldwide, right?
Taking inflation into account, Star Wars made the equivalent of $2,986,980,366.63.
Uhm, Star Wars is way more popular with every demographic. Everyone ranging from kids to grandparents loves Star Wars, while the Avengers demographic is mainly teens and adolescents.
Rabbi_Vole
Banned
137,000,000 people will watch Avengers AoU once. 45,000,000 will watch the new Star Wars 17 times in theaters.
As I said, that talk is irrelevant to these two films, as it came from a completely different time in the cinema industry.
Can Crusher
Banned
Based on pure thin air. The power of Universal love to turn Force Awakes into an Avatar beater, a movie that had no love before it came out. How can any other movie compete?
Must be because of those hard hitting themes, and complex character development that sets Star Wars apart.
Do you have a particular thing you're basing this on?
Hm...Where did you get your number from? according to boxofficemojo.com the original star wars made about 1.5 billion adjusted for inflation
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
JimJamJones
Member
I just googled an inflation calculator, adjusted the years and input the $775.4 million that Star Wars made.
According to BOM, the average ticket price is $8.30. My area must suck, because we pay ~$10.50 for a ticket.
Glass Rebel
Member
Can Crusher
Banned
I would say it's true. Superman for example is the most iconic super hero of all time.
On what I see around me (Netherlands).The moment the Star Wars trailer was released my Facebook exploded and my mom and my 6-year old nephew both Whatsapped me to ask if I had already seen it. Avengers on the other hand has almost no hype amongst people I know, only the most (sorry for the term) "nerdy" people I know talk about it.
Don't get me wrong, I will definitely see Avengers in a week and I am hyped as hell, but there's really no contest about which movie has the most buzz and will perform the best IMO.
MaddenNFL64
Member
Some of us like both.
I like both, too lol. But its the internet, so pick sides, and fight!
Oh, and damn, Disney owns my movie life for the next decade, holy shit.
- Status