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[speculawyer]

There is just such a weak grasp on reality.

How this for bold? Congresswoman Michell Bachmann, a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination who won the Ames Straw Poll last weekend, has just stated that one thing we'd get with a Bachmann Administration is – ready? – cheap gasoline. According to Politico she said:

The day that the president became president, gasoline was $1.79 a gallon. Look at what it is today. Under President Bachmann, you will see gasoline come down below $2 a gallon again. That will happen.​

Today, said the average price for a gallon of gas is $3.58 per gallon, says the American Automobile Association.

The devil, of course, is in the details, and Bachmann did not explain how she would get the price of fuel down. She's a supporter of drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but doesn't seem to actually understand how much oil experts think is there. Then there's the fact that opening up ANWR wouldn't reduce prices as the pump quite that quickly (if at all). In 2008, the Energy Information Administration said (PDF):

Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR would be only a small portion of total world oil production, and would likely be offset in part by somewhat lower production outside the United States. The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.​

Oh, and then there's this. Still, a return to $2.00/gallon probably sounds good to some voters, right?

Video here:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61566.html



Actually . . . I think she could accomplish this. Granted, it would involve completely crashing the world-wide economy but I think she could pull that off.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

*Government* Jobs Led To Perry’s Economic Boom
Brian Beutler | August 17, 2011, 2:23PM

On the campaign trail, governor Rick Perry will claim credit for the so-called Texas miracle. His state weathered the housing and jobs crises better than many others, and he'll happily tell voters it was the result of his small government conservative approach to running things.

But his state's relative success has a lot to do with things out of his control -- population growth resulting from an influx of immigrants from Mexico and of workers and retirees from other U.S. states, and high oil company profits, to name just a couple. Oh, and also federal stimulus.

What's that you say?!

Despite being one of the loudest critics of President Obama's stimulus, Perry used billions of dollars of federal money to patch Texas' budget shortfalls, and was thus able to create and maintain lots and lots of public sector jobs. In fact, if you look at net job creation between 2007 and 2010, it's clear the only thing keeping Texas buoyant was government jobs.

Check out the below chart from Jared Bernstein -- a fiscal policy expert at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and former chief economist to the stimulus bill's top cop, Vice President Joe Biden. It shows pretty conclusively that the recession cost Texas 178,000 private sector jobs -- a fairly small share for a populous state, when you consider that crisis cost the country many millions. But in the same period, it added 125,000 public sector jobs -- nearly half of all government jobs created in this period nationwide. Put together, the Texas has only lost 53,000 jobs total during the downturn.

Source: BLS data.

As Bernstein notes this "shows Texas to be following a traditional Keynesian game plan: as the private sector contracts, turn to the public sector to temporarily make up part of the difference."

Additionally, Perry's papered over some looming budget gaps with fancy paperwork, and unless he or the next governor take steps (like raising taxes) to balance the books, he'll have to cut spending (read: public sector jobs) and many of his gains will have proved illusory.

That's doesn't match Perry's private market, anti-government rhetoric very well, which is why he and his supporters will shout "Texas miracle!" if they're confronted with these facts, to obscure the underlying reality.
​

#########################


So now government jobs count. So conservaGAF (and I wish I could ask all conservatives on cable news), why do governments count when Perry uses them, but they don't count in job creation when Obama uses them?

I wish we could get to a point where we can all acknowledge that government jobs count just like any other private company job does.

If the GOP doesn't think gov't jobs are real jobs, then they can't call this guy the jobs governor. You either acknowledge public jobs are real or you let Perry run on his non-ability to create a net plus in private sector jobs since 2007.

Hmmm....wonder why they chose those dates. 2007-2010? What was the reasoning? Why not include this year? The numbers are available. Texas added over 200,000 net jobs over the last year alone, did it not? Far above any other State.

 

[ronito]

dunno...maybe because this year isn't over yet.

 

[PhoenixDark]

There is just such a weak grasp on reality.


Video here:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61566.html



Actually . . . I think she could accomplish this. Granted, it would involve completely crashing the world-wide economy but I think she could pull that off.

herp derp

Someone needs to ask her what benefit Obama gains from not trying to lower gas prices, which have put a halt on economic growth. This is the type of bullshit that proves she's not a national candidate and never will be.

 

[HamPster PamPster]

Gas was under $2 when Obama took office?

 

[Puddles]

I sent out an email to the people interested in the website a few minutes ago: A Human Becoming, Invisible_Insane, RustyNails, besada, and Karma Kramer. If you didn't get it, let me know. If anyone else is interested in the project, pm me or one of those guys.

 

[Dude Abides]

herp derp

Someone needs to ask her what benefit Obama gains from not trying to lower gas prices, which have put a halt on economic growth. This is the type of bullshit that proves she's not a national candidate and never will be.

Easy. High gas prices = more support for environazi things Obama likes, like green energy and electric cars. Did you know Government Motors came out with an electric car recently?

You folks writing her off have a too-rosy view of what nonsense the electorate is willing to swallow.

 

[KtSlime]

IDK. Maybe because they create jobs and invest in this country more than any of you losers could.

Spoiler

Don't shoot meee

Well then it's time for the government to call their bluff. They won't go.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Gas was under $2 when Obama took office?

Fuck, I wish

 

[mckmas8808]

Hmmm....wonder why they chose those dates. 2007-2010? What was the reasoning? Why not include this year? The numbers are available. Texas added over 200,000 net jobs over the last year alone, did it not? Far above any other State.

Do you consider public jobs, real jobs?

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Do you consider public jobs, real jobs?

Absolutely. If not, the money I've been getting paid is fake and I've been living a lie.
From what I understand, over the last two years (since the recession officially ended), Texas has been far outpacing other states in job growth. I also read that roughly half are public sector jobs.

 

[empty vessel]

Absolutely. If not, the money I've been getting paid is fake and I've been living a lie.

The joke is on you, because all money is fake.

 

[jamesinclair]

Somebody tried to troll you yesterday.

Well I certainly wont be going back 50 pages to respond to anything, but I will point out this:

When California voters approved the project in 2008, the state said it would cost $33 billion, but it soared to $43 billion a year later --

And those figures do not include inflation, which could push the final cost toward a staggering $100 billion.

100% bullshit.

1) The "increase" from 33b to 43b was a mandated change in accounting, from 2008 dollars to 2020 dollars. The project cost didnt rise, the imaginary numbers did. Its the exact same amount.

2) Completely renders the second part false.



As for Bachmann, the amount I payed to fill up in has dropped from $4.35 to $3.59 in just 4 days!!!

Its the Obama gasoline giveaway!

Spoiler

The saturday fillup was in Maui, todays near Bakersfield

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

The joke is on you, because all money is fake.

If all money is fake, then we're all in the same boat so who cares?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Easy. High gas prices = more support for environazi things Obama likes, like green energy and electric cars. Did you know Government Motors came out with an electric car recently?

You folks writing her off have a too-rosy view of what nonsense the electorate is willing to swallow.

More support from environmentalists at the cost of everyone else? Come on, it makes no sense logically. She has no chance, just as Bachman has no chance. I honestly think Obama will not win re-election, but if the nominee is Bachman he'd win in a landslide.

 

[mckmas8808]

Absolutely. If not, the money I've been getting paid is fake and I've been living a lie.
From what I understand, over the last two years (since the recession officially ended), Texas has been far outpacing other states in job growth. I also read the roughly half are public sector jobs.

Cool. So in your humble opinion why do other conservatives say that people like you don't count when it comes to job creation?

And why do they now count for Gov. Perry?

 

[gcubed]

Easy. High gas prices = more support for environazi things Obama likes, like green energy and electric cars. Did you know Government Motors came out with an electric car recently?

You folks writing her off have a too-rosy view of what nonsense the electorate is willing to swallow.

No rosy view... written off. You've been infected by the diablos train, or you have a far too negative view

 

[RustyNails]

Someone needs to ask her what benefit Obama gains from not trying to lower gas prices, which have put a halt on economic growth.

Obama has jacked up the gas prices in order to force us into buying ford fusions and chevy volts!

 

[TacticalFox88]

The joke is on you, because all money is fake.

Hell, if we wanted, we can make rocks our currency. It's what we "assign" as valuable. It's not really valuable.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Hmmm....wonder why they chose those dates. 2007-2010? What was the reasoning? Why not include this year? The numbers are available. Texas added over 200,000 net jobs over the last year alone, did it not? Far above any other State.

Because the author didn't feel it fit with the analysis, though I think they should have included it. As always, I go to primary sources when evaluating stuff like this, in this case the BLS databases.

This data is easy to pull. Use this report tool at the BLS site to gather employment data for Texas, first for all employment, and then for government, dumping in the data into Excel from each.

Here is the net jobs change from the prior month for each:

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Total
Total 	26.3	17.9	35.3	30.3	2.1	32	143.9
Gov't	5.6	-3.3	-4.4	1.1	-3.6	12.3	7.7

So for this year, most of the job growth has been in the private sector.

The reason the article it still relevant despite this omission (and they certainly should have included it) is because of the point they're making. Texas used a strategy of ramping up public hiring as a countercyclical strategy to offset private jobs losses during the recession. That's a valid point. It should just be made in the context of what's happened since - they slowed public hiring now that the private sector is growing again, albeit slowly.

 

[ReBurn]

Every time I look back I think "Wow...if Bush hadn't won, there's a good possibility the US's debt would've been paid off."

Goddammit

Wouldn't have happened. Clinton addressed yearly budget deficits and has a legacy that includes proposed budget surpluses, but his plan didn't include paying off trillions worth of debt that had already been accumulated. no way Congress would actually pay off debt.

 

[Snaku]

There is just such a weak grasp on reality.


Video here:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61566.html



Actually . . . I think she could accomplish this. Granted, it would involve completely crashing the world-wide economy but I think she could pull that off.

Drilling here, drilling naow will not lower the price of gas. So what's President Bachmann gonna do? Bend over and let the Oil Sheikh's drill her?

 

[platypotamus]

Absolutely. If not, the money I've been getting paid is fake and I've been living a lie.
From what I understand, over the last two years (since the recession officially ended), Texas has been far outpacing other states in job growth. I also read that roughly half are public sector jobs.

So then you are saying that stimulating the economy with government spending and public sector jobs lead to private sector growth as well?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Also, the analysis in the article is sloppy. Here's the Texas net monthly change in government jobs for the date range cited:

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2007	0.4	1.5	3.5	4	1.8	2.7	3.1	3.1	2.5	6.5	4	4.9	38
2008	7.6	2	4.2	-1.4	2.9	6.1	5.3	4.3	-0.9	-0.9	7.3	4.5	41
2009	9.1	-1.9	2.7	13.4	-1.6	5.2	-0.3	-5.5	5.6	10.9	0.6	2.5	40.7
2010	1.2	1.7	7.8	8.3	34.1	-2	-19.3	-6.3	-12.9	6.1	1.5	2.8	23
Total													142.7

The January number here compares the December - January change to find the job growth in January. My total is 142.7k jobs added to government. If you delete the January number for each year, you get the 125k cited in the article. So he's only totalling the February-December change for each year, and probably doing the same for the total employment picture. Sloppy work is sloppy. I'm a numbers guy, it annoys me to see this sort of thing in supposedly researched reporting.

 

[mckmas8808]

Also, the analysis in the article is sloppy. Here's the Texas net monthly change in government jobs for the date range cited:

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2007	0.4	1.5	3.5	4	1.8	2.7	3.1	3.1	2.5	6.5	4	4.9	38
2008	7.6	2	4.2	-1.4	2.9	6.1	5.3	4.3	-0.9	-0.9	7.3	4.5	41
2009	9.1	-1.9	2.7	13.4	-1.6	5.2	-0.3	-5.5	5.6	10.9	0.6	2.5	40.7
2010	1.2	1.7	7.8	8.3	34.1	-2	-19.3	-6.3	-12.9	6.1	1.5	2.8	23
Total													142.7

The January number here compares the December - January change to find the job growth in January. My total is 142.7k jobs added to government. If you delete the January number for each year, you get the 125k cited in the article. So he's only totalling the February-December change for each year, and probably doing the same for the total employment picture. Sloppy work is sloppy. I'm a numbers guy, it annoys me to see this sort of thing in supposedly researched reporting.

Why in the heck would he leave off one month for no reason?

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Cool. So in your humble opinion why do other conservatives say that people like you don't count when it comes to job creation?

And why do they now count for Gov. Perry?

I guess it has to do with the view that a government job puts a burden on taxpayers as the employee is paid by you and me, whereas the money in a private sector job comes from a guy in a nice suit and a private jet.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Also, the analysis in the article is sloppy. Here's the Texas net monthly change in government jobs for the date range cited:

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2007	0.4	1.5	3.5	4	1.8	2.7	3.1	3.1	2.5	6.5	4	4.9	38
2008	7.6	2	4.2	-1.4	2.9	6.1	5.3	4.3	-0.9	-0.9	7.3	4.5	41
2009	9.1	-1.9	2.7	13.4	-1.6	5.2	-0.3	-5.5	5.6	10.9	0.6	2.5	40.7
2010	1.2	1.7	7.8	8.3	34.1	-2	-19.3	-6.3	-12.9	6.1	1.5	2.8	23
Total													142.7

The January number here compares the December - January change to find the job growth in January. My total is 142.7k jobs added to government. If you delete the January number for each year, you get the 125k cited in the article. So he's only totalling the February-December change for each year, and probably doing the same for the total employment picture. Sloppy work is sloppy. I'm a numbers guy, it annoys me to see this sort of thing in supposedly researched reporting.

Thanks man. Something didn't seem right about that analysis. It's always good to be critical of every single thing you read no matter what your views. And from what I understand (and like you said), you don't have to fudge numbers to prove the point.

 

[mckmas8808]

Thanks man. Something didn't seem right about that analysis. It's always good to be critical of every single thing you read no matter what your views. And from what I understand (and like you said), you don't have to fudge numbers to prove the point.

Yeah especially when the point is still valid. If you don't mind me asking....what do you do for the government?

 

[SoulPlaya]

You could easily get gas to be cheap again, if you untie oil from speculation. At this point, oil is serving as a self check on market growth. Market grows, gas becomes expensive, businesses suffer, market goes down, gas goes with it, and cycle repeats itself. Cut oil from the market, and get these banking firms out of oil futures.

At the same time, put a quota on how much oil drilled in the US must be sold to the US. The US actually exports more oil than it imports. Think about that.

 

[Veezy]

At the same time, put a quota on how much oil drilled in the US must be sold to the US. The US actually exports more oil than it imports. Think about that.

*thinks*
I just pulled something.

 

[KtSlime]

Drilling here, drilling naow will not lower the price of gas. So what's President Bachmann gonna do? Bend over and let the Oil Sheikh's drill her?

People that want to drill our last reserves here in the US don't understand that the country that drills last wins.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Yeah especially when the point is still valid. If you don't mind me asking....what do you do for the government?

Way cool science stuff.

 

[mckmas8808]

You could easily get gas to be cheap again, if you untie oil from speculation. At this point, oil is serving as a self check on market growth. Market grows, gas becomes expensive, businesses suffer, market goes down, gas goes with it, and cycle repeats itself. Cut oil from the market, and get these banking firms out of oil futures.

At the same time, put a quota on how much oil drilled in the US must be sold to the US. The US actually exports more oil than it imports. Think about that.

No way that's true. I won't believe it.

 

[SoulPlaya]

No way that's true. I won't believe it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html

We export more oil than we import. The US is filled with vast natural resources. We've just placed it in the hands of corporations, who feel that selling it elsewhere is more beneficial.

 

[Plinko]

You could easily get gas to be cheap again, if you untie oil from speculation. At this point, oil is serving as a self check on market growth. Market grows, gas becomes expensive, businesses suffer, market goes down, gas goes with it, and cycle repeats itself. Cut oil from the market, and get these banking firms out of oil futures.

At the same time, put a quota on how much oil drilled in the US must be sold to the US. The US actually exports more oil than it imports. Think about that.

This right here. I've heard it straight from higher-ups in the oil industry.

Also, that last comment is mind-boggling. How that is allowed is beyond me.

Finally, Bachmann is an idiot. No way she can get gas below $2 unless she does end speculation, which we all know will never happen.

Drilling more in the US is pointless as we have a major stockpile of oil right now as it is with tankers full of it floating offshore. She'd also have to convince people to build more refineries and, again, that will never happen. The opportunities have been there for years but nobody wants to put the money toward it.

 

[mckmas8808]

John King on his CNN show is killing Rick Perry right now over the lies that he has been telling over the last 5 days. Feels good man.

 

[TacticalFox88]

John King on his CNN show is killing Rick Perry right now over the lies that he has been telling over the last 5 days. Feels good man.

The media actually doing it's job!?

 

[SoulPlaya]

The media actually doing it's job!?

If the media was really doing its job, the news that the US exports more oil than it imports wouldn't be so shocking to many.

 

[Curufinwe]

Gas was under $2 when Obama took office?

I remember it got up to $4 in June 2008, just after we bought a Jeep Liberty with poor gas mileage.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/08/news/economy/gas_prices/

I suppose that was Obama's fault somehow.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

John King on his CNN show is killing Rick Perry right now over the lies that he has been telling over the last 5 days. Feels good man.

I've met John King a few times. Seems like a down to earth guy.
But he has no business talking shit about Rick Perry -the only man who can save America.

 

[empty vessel]

I've met John King a few times. Seems like a down to earth guy.
But he has no business talking shit about Rick Perry -the only man who can save America.

By executing it one person at a time.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

By executing it one person at a time.

You're right. That'll take too long. What's he thinkin?

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

I've met John King a few times. Seems like a down to earth guy.
But he has no business talking shit about Rick Perry -the only man who can save America.

He would be if he let you run his campaign. After all you are smarter than Obama.

 

[Mike M]

By executing it one person at a time.

There's a joke about the executive branch in there somewhere...

 

[KHarvey16]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html

We export more oil than we import. The US is filled with vast natural resources. We've just placed it in the hands of corporations, who feel that selling it elsewhere is more beneficial.

Per the CIA World Factbook this isn't accurate. We export 1.7 million barrels per day, and import 11.3 million barrels per day.

 

[sangreal]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html

We export more oil than we import. The US is filled with vast natural resources. We've just placed it in the hands of corporations, who feel that selling it elsewhere is more beneficial.

Those numbers are for refined products, not crude oil. I've gone ahead and charted the last 20 years of Imports/Exports of crude oil for you:

(Thousands of barrels, Weekly)

It isn't even close. All of that data (including the numbers used in that article) is available here: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm

 

[SoulPlaya]

But isn't it refined products that we care about? Refined is what gas is, who cares about crude?

 

[Mike M]

But isn't it refined products that we care about? Refined is what gas is, who cares about crude?

What do you think gets refined to make gas?

 

[Piecake]

What do you think gets refined to make gas?

I think you need your sarcasm detector checked

 

[Skiptastic]

yet another entry from someone whos state hates him. Maybe Rick Scott can run too

Everything about this race so far is making me sad that My Man Mitch didn't run.