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PoliGAF 2011: Of Weiners, Boehners, Santorum, and Teabags

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Diablos

Member
Incognito said:
What does everyone think of Bachmann's chances if she won the primary? She's insane, but pretty charismatic, not to mention hot.

Pawlenty's low numbers don't surprise me. He's a douche. I never thought he had any real electability, in fact Obama would likely coast to victory against him. He's like Dubya but a total pussy and zero charisma. Ideally I'd love for him to win the nomination so the Obama camp can have a relatively easy time getting another four years.
 

Diablos

Member
There's nothing funny about her doing so well this early on. It's absolutely terrifying.

The fact is Obama is really going to be on the defensive in 2012. I'd say his chances of getting re-elected are going to be 50/50 or 40/60 depending on how bad things are and how people are perceiving his campaign. Romney is the only person of all the GOP candidates that strikes me as sane, even if I disagree with him. Well, Huntsman, too -- but I don't see him as having a real shot. Someone like Bachmann is just a loon. A complete loon. Like George W. Bush but even more crazy.

Basically, if I had to see any GOPer run away with a win, it would be Romney.
 
Plinko said:
I'm stunned Romney is so high in Iowa.

Also, Bachmann is that high yet is telling people that George W Bush was absolutely right. It will not end well for her poll numbers.
It is all about electability.

People know Bachmann, Paul, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum and others are unelectable.
 

Spire

Subconscious Brolonging
Diablos said:
What does everyone think of Bachmann's chances if she won the primary? She's insane, but pretty charismatic, not to mention hot.

Pawlenty's low numbers don't surprise me. He's a douche.

No damn way. She terrifies everyone who isn't on the far, far right.
 
Diablos said:
There's nothing funny about her doing so well this early on. It's absolutely terrifying.

The fact is Obama is really going to be on the defensive in 2012. I'd say his chances of getting re-elected are going to be 50/50 or 40/60 depending on how bad things are and how people are perceiving things. Romney is the only person of all the GOP candidates that strikes me as sane, even if I disagree with him. Well, Huntsman, too -- but I don't see him as having a real shot. Someone like Bachmann is just a loon. A complete loon. Like George W. Bush but even more crazy.

Basically, if I had to see any GOPer run away with a win, it would be Romney.
Honestly, what can the Republicans say? They didn't do SHIT for the economy, and Obama will pretty much not have a choice in calling them out on it on the campaign trail. He's going to use Osama, Health Care, and various miscellaneous things to there full advantage.
 

Clevinger

Member
TacticalFox88 said:
Honestly, what can the Republicans say? They didn't do SHIT for the economy, and Obama will pretty much not have a choice in calling them out on it on the campaign trail. He's going to use Osama, Health Care, and various miscellaneous things to there full advantage.

Who said they had to tell the truth? They're the masters of misinformation/marketing. And they're going to have shitloads and shitloads of money to spread it.
 
Clevinger said:
Who said they had to tell the truth? They're the masters of misinformation/marketing. And they're going to have shitloads and shitloads of money to spread it.
So will Obama. He's like a completely different person in campaign mode.
 

Diablos

Member
TacticalFox88 said:
Honestly, what can the Republicans say? They didn't do SHIT for the economy, and Obama will pretty much not have a choice in calling them out on it on the campaign trail. He's going to use Osama, Health Care, and various miscellaneous things to there full advantage.
Unemployment will be front and center. If it's above 7-8% nothing else will matter. You realize that in the first two years of his Presidency, Obama passed more "progressive" legislation since LBJ? That's fucking huge. You'd think people would have appreciated that like they do in other western countries. No. They either sat at home, or a small percentage of them switched from blue to red while the Tea Party dominated the electorate with a near foaming-at-the-mouth level of intensity that should scare the everlovin' shit out of any remotely sane individual. It was kind of a preview for what things will be like in 2012 if unemployment doesn't go down.

(I use quotes for "progressive" since that's kind of watered down these days, but they were bold steps forward given the extremely partisan political environment regardless, and he deserves a lot of credit that he's simply not getting).

Also, something else I wanted to mention about Obama's chances; lots of people, especially those of us left of center, seem to think Obama would fare more than well against anyone but Romney or Huntsman. I think that's kind of unrealistic. People like Santorum, Paul, Cain, etc. are very aggressive (ESPECIALLY Santorum), and if they somehow won the nomination I think you'd be really surprised (well, maybe not Cain, lol). I've seen Santorum debate a lot when he was our Senator, and this guy is really good at engaging his opponent head on, relentlessly. He's an asshole, but he pulls it off damn well. You don't want to go up against him in a year that's bad for Democrats. You should have seen the guy in 2006; had it not been such a bad year for the GOP, he would have kicked Bob Casey's ass to the curb. He is one of the most aggressive campaigners I have ever seen, and if he plays his cards right and the demographics are in his favor, watch out. He will stop at nothing.

Clevinger said:
Who said they had to tell the truth? They're the masters of misinformation/marketing. And they're going to have shitloads and shitloads of money to spread it.
Yeah. The GOP lying and distortion machine will be out in full force. Bachmann is super hot for US political standards and has a lot of charisma. She'll have the Citizens United case on her side, too. I'm absolutely terrified to see how well she's polling right out of the gate.

TacticalFox88 said:
So will Obama. He's like a completely different person in campaign mode.
...then he won the Presidency and ever since has been much more laid back. I don't think he'll be able to as easily recapture the magic of 2008.

edit: Fucking hell, Bachmann's rhetoric is already this intense and she's just getting started.

(CBS News)

This Sunday's guest on "Face the Nation" is Republican Presidential Candidate Michele Bachmann.

"I want to announce tonight. President Obama is a one-term president," said Bachmann to boisterous applause at last week's Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire.

In the debate, Bachmann shined. She started by announcing she was officially running for president and then continued her ongoing attack on President Obama's policies.

She said the president's financial reform law would lead to job losses and said she wouldn't stop until she repealed health care reform. "It's a promise. Take it to the bank, cash the check. I'll make sure that that happens," she said, calling the bill a "job-killer."

Bachmann also turned her ire to government regulation, saying the Obama Administration is killing jobs. She said the Environmental Protection Agency should be "renamed the job-killing organization of America."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/06/24/ftn/main20074098.shtml
 
Diablos said:
Don't say that. :|
I want to see the hilarity of Michele Bachmann winning the Republican primary. It'd be just the thing to make the party crash and burn for good.

Imagine the debates. Just imagine them.

She wouldn't have a shot in hell in a general election.
 

Diablos

Member
polyh3dron said:
I want to see the hilarity of Michele Bachmann winning the Republican primary. It'd be just the thing to make the party crash and burn for good.

Imagine the debates. Just imagine them.

She wouldn't have a shot in hell in a general election.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fRxO_Yx99I

I think she would. Look at how she speaks. She has kind of toned town her crazy rhetoric and is going for a much more practical approach in how she tries to present an idea or facts (or what she wants people to think are facts. :p) Campaign rhetoric is another story (see the CBS link above), but if she plays her cards right that won't matter too much.
 

Averon

Member
Diablos said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fRxO_Yx99I

I think she would. Look at how she speaks. She has kind of toned town her crazy rhetoric and is going for a much more practical approach.

Bachmann isn't some unknown figure, though. She's already been defined as a right-wing loon. And all her batshit insane comments will come back in the GE if she wins the nomination (which I believe she won't).
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
I used to think you were just concern trolling, Diablos, but after claiming a.) Bachmann is hot and b.) Would have a chance at winning the general election (much less the primary), I'm beginning to think you're one stop short of delusional.
 

Diablos

Member
XMonkey said:
I used to think you were just concern trolling, Diablos, but after claiming a.) Bachmann is hot and b.) Would have a chance at winning the general election (much less the primary), I'm beginning to think you're one stop short of delusional.
I said for US political standards she's hot, and she does clean up well regardless. All political/religious/various social views aside, I don't think she's a bad looking woman at all given her age.

I get really offended when people say I'm concern trolling. I don't come to this message board to troll. I'm not saying that her winning the GE is a done deal or anything close, but I think she has potential, and I find it alarming that a lot of Democrats already seem to be writing her off. It's like a great deal of the Obama base seems to live in this fantasy world where Huntsman winning the nomination is the only thing that would pose a threat. Get real.

I've said this ad nauseum, but this is a country that elected George W. Bush. He really lowered the bar for the GOP and I don't think it will ever get to a respectable level again.
 

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
Democrats have a damn good reason to write her off. She's batshit insane, no matter how much she tries to give the impression she isn't. When the shit starts to fly in the GOP primary I expect her opponents to bring some of her past views up.
 

Diablos

Member
XMonkey said:
Democrats have a damn good reason to write her off. She's batshit insane, no matter how much she tries to give the impression she isn't. When the shit starts to fly in the GOP primary I expect her opponents to bring some of her past views up.
Pretty much all of them are batshit insane save Romney and Huntsman. They will all be digging up dirt on each other, so I don't think that is going to somehow invalidate Bachmann all of the sudden.
 

gcubed

Member
Diablos said:
Pretty much all of them are batshit insane save Romney and Huntsman. They will all be digging up dirt on each other, so I don't think that is going to somehow invalidate Bachmann all of the sudden.
She doesn't even have potential. If by potential you mean she would have a 1% chance of winning then sure, she has potential.
 

Jackson50

Member
Incognito said:
Well, it is still early, but that refrain will soon prove trite. Still, he could improve his name recognition and prospects; granted, it would prove unusual. Really, this is a state he should excel in. If he does not improve his position considerably by late summer, he is finished. But I am not yet placing the final nail in the coffin.
Clevinger said:
I'm not really sure if I should be amused or terrified that Bachmann's doing so well.
Amused. Bachmann has negligible prospects for winning the nomination. Moreover, remember that this is a state where Pat Robertson received more votes than (then) VP Bush. They have occasional brain farts.

Also, to the notion that Santorum, Cain, Bachmann, et al., might fare better than Romney or Huntsman in the general election, that is ludicrous. They are too ideologically polarizing. It would severely diminish the GOP's prospects. It would be a terrible decision from an electability perspective.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jackson50 said:
Well, it is still early, but that refrain will soon prove trite. Still, he could improve his name recognition and prospects; granted, it would prove unusual. Really, this is a state he should excel in. If he does not improve his position considerably by late summer, he is finished. But I am not yet placing the final nail in the coffin.Amused. Bachmann has negligible prospects for winning the nomination. Moreover, remember that this is a state where Pat Robertson received more votes than (then) VP Bush. They have occasional brain farts.
I'm expecting her to have a Mike Huckabee type run, including an Iowa win - and then not much thereafter. She'll appeal to the same religious zealots, but beyond that much of the GOP primary voters in other states are more sane.
 
Diablos said:
Also, something else I wanted to mention about Obama's chances; lots of people, especially those of us left of center, seem to think Obama would fare more than well against anyone but Romney or Huntsman. I think that's kind of unrealistic. People like Santorum, Paul, Cain, etc. are very aggressive (ESPECIALLY Santorum), and if they somehow won the nomination I think you'd be really surprised (well, maybe not Cain, lol). I've seen Santorum debate a lot when he was our Senator, and this guy is really good at engaging his opponent head on, relentlessly. He's an asshole, but he pulls it off damn well. You don't want to go up against him in a year that's bad for Democrats. You should have seen the guy in 2006; had it not been such a bad year for the GOP, he would have kicked Bob Casey's ass to the curb. He is one of the most aggressive campaigners I have ever seen, and if he plays his cards right and the demographics are in his favor, watch out. He will stop at nothing.


Yeah. The GOP lying and distortion machine will be out in full force. Bachmann is super hot for US political standards and has a lot of charisma. She'll have the Citizens United case on her side, too. I'm absolutely terrified to see how well she's polling right out of the gate.

You underestimate how moderate most of the American people are. Santorum and Bachmann are on the "batshit" scale, and while that may poll nicely with a select demographic, there's no chance in hell they would play to a national audience, I don't care how well Santorum campaigns. The country is not looking for a Jesus freak to be President, and I dare say you could not find one to win a general election.
 

eznark

Banned
Plinko said:
I'm stunned Romney is so high in Iowa.

Also, Bachmann is that high yet is telling people that George W Bush was absolutely right. It will not end well for her poll numbers.
Does Romney support ethanol/corn subsidies?
 
LOL is anyone listening to Michele Bachmann talk in circles about gay marriage on Fox News Sunday?

She supports the state's rights... but also supports a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage... and somehow these things aren't inconsistent because.. umm she says they're not. You could almost hear Wallace's befuddlement.
 

Brinbe

Member
She has no chance to win the Presidency, but I wouldn't bet against her winning the GOP nomination. Not at all.

First of all, she may be insane, but she's clearly a believer of what she preaches, which I think will go far with those GOP voters. She's also smartly put a good team together, with Ed Rollins running her campaign, and she's constantly been on the ascendancy so far. And really, of all the other candidates left (I mean look at these people Paul? Cain? T-Paw? Newt? Santorum?), she absolutely has the best chance of breaking through and challenging Romney. All those guys, except for perhaps Cain, don't have an ounce of charisma or anything that sets them apart. So, a win in Iowa/decent enough showing in NH/win in SC (where she has already has put a lot of work in place) and who knows...

And unlike perhaps a Romney, people won't doubt her conservative cred at all, and at worst, she always has that 23 foster-kids story to fall back on.

Anyway, that recent Taibbi piece in Rolling Stone goes into more detail. Definitely a good read.
 

thekad

Banned
Fuck it, I got money on Bachmann for the nomination. PolGAF needs some excitement anyway and I have Chris Matthews on my side.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Count me in on the group that thinks Bachmann getting the nomination is too scary.

All it takes is one scandal. That's it. Could be voter fraud, could be something made up about Obama that people believe...it doesn't matter. I don't trust her and the very thought of her in the White House is scary. We can only hope the public would give the democrats a supermajority in Congress at the same time.
 
worldrunover said:
LOL is anyone listening to Michele Bachmann talk in circles about gay marriage on Fox News Sunday?

She supports the state's rights... but also supports a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage... and somehow these things aren't inconsistent because.. umm she says they're not. You could almost hear Wallace's befuddlement.

"Are you a flake?"
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/wrong-wrong-wrong/

Wrong Wrong Wrong

Bruce Bartlett points out something I had forgotten: the 1993 Clinton tax increase wasn’t the first time conservatives predicted doom from any rise in tax rates. They did the same in response to the Reagan tax hike of 1982 — and yes, the sainted Reagan, after cutting taxes at the beginning, raised them repeatedly thereafter.

What actually happened, of course, was a V-shaped recovery — Morning in America — which was mainly due to Fed policy, but got credited to the 1981 tax cut. And the 1982 tax hike got sent down the memory hole.

The story I knew was about that Clinton tax hike, which was supposed to send the economy into a tailspin.

Let’s also mention the Bush tax cuts, which were supposed to produce a vast boom, and ended up being followed by the weakest recovery of modern times.

The point is that these people have been wrong about everything — and yet tax-cut magic is the official religion of the GOP.
 

Rubenov

Member
Plinko said:
Count me in on the group that thinks Bachmann getting the nomination is too scary.

All it takes is one scandal. That's it. Could be voter fraud, could be something made up about Obama that people believe...it doesn't matter. I don't trust her and the very thought of her in the White House is scary. We can only hope the public would give the democrats a supermajority in Congress at the same time.

I think it will take more than one scandal for her to win. Obama is not the unknown atheist-terrorist-scary Muslim he once was. Bachmann will still be batshit insane regardless of a possible Obama scandal.

I SO want her to win the nomination.
 
All this Bachmann talk reminds me of early on in the 2004 election, when every right-wing outlet was certain that Howard Dean was going to get the nomination. They were certain because he encapsulated perfectly what they believed the other side was. They were wrong, of course, and John Kerry got the nomination and went on to lose handily to the worst president in history, but that's beside the point. It's like all the wasted hand-wringing and mockery of Christine O'Donnell. People on the left loved to make fun of her because she was, in their view, exactly the type of candidate the savages on the other side would vote for. And then she lost by a ton.
 

Clevinger

Member
BigPickZel said:
All this Bachmann talk reminds me of early on in the 2004 election... It's like all the wasted hand-wringing and mockery of Christine O'Donnell. People on the left loved to make fun of her because she was, in their view, exactly the type of candidate the savages on the other side would vote for. And then she lost by a ton.

The difference between this and when O'Donnell lost was she was in a general election, not the Republican primary. She did great and won the Republican primary, which is currently where Bachmann is doing great.

And as absolutely horrible as she was, and as incapable of appearing sane as she was (something Bachmann can actually do), she still won 40 percent of the vote in the general.

In a country that reelected Bush, a shitty economy + great marketing + tons of money could get Bachmann elected in the general. It's not likely, but it's possible.
 
Erm, Christine O'Donnell won the GOP primary in that race despite being up against a very credible and respected candidate. Also, no one thought she could win the general. Ever.

I will say this about Bachmann, she is at least 18 1/2 times smarter than Sarah Palin. And I mean that in terms of intelligence. She actually sounds like she might have an idea about the fundamentals of what she is talking about, whereas Palin just tries to memorize key points without actually grasping things like base concept or sentence structure.
 

Chichikov

Member
worldrunover said:
I will say this about Bachmann, she is at least 18 1/2 times smarter than Sarah Palin. And I mean that in terms of intelligence. She actually sounds like she might have an idea about the fundamentals of what she is talking about, whereas Palin just tries to memorize key points without actually grasping things like base concept or sentence structure.
And at the end of the day, that might be one of the worst parts of Palin's legacy.
She set the bar so low, the frame of reference so stupid, that it makes someone like Bachmann look almost half credible.
 
Diablos said:
I'm not saying that her winning the GE is a done deal or anything close, but I think she has potential, and I find it alarming that a lot of Democrats already seem to be writing her off.
Michelle Bachmann has about the same chance at winning a general election as Jesse Jackson. She will lose battleground states in no time, entertaining the fact that GOP even gives her the nomination.

Edit: Meant Jesse Jackson, not Jesse Jackson Jr
 

Cyan

Banned
BigPickZel said:
People on the left loved to make fun of her because she was, in their view, exactly the type of candidate the savages on the other side would vote for. And then she lost by a ton.
They did vote for her--she won the primary.
 
Ether_Snake said:
This bit of reality needs to be repeated over and over and over until it gets through. The deficit cannot be solved through spending cuts alone. The GOP tax religion refuses to acknowledge this reality.

It is also true that it cannot be solved through tax hikes alone BUT THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO ONE SAYING THAT IT CAN BE SOLVED THAT WAY. That is a big difference.

Bachmann Says She Would Eliminate Minimum Wage to Spur Growth
That is so sad. The Dems really need to use that kind of talk against the people that promote in a Reaganesque way. "Bachmann believes we are a nation in decline and we must accept lower wages. I reject that. I feel we are nation on the rise and that there is no need to lower our standards." Hokey? Yes. But possible effective. Do you want to vote for someone saying that you should be paid less?

worldrunover said:
She supports the state's rights... but also supports a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage... and somehow these things aren't inconsistent because.. umm she says they're not. You could almost hear Wallace's befuddlement.
She is stealing a line from another GOPer at the last debate. A constitutional amendment is respectful of states rights because states have to approve it. (Of course that is bullshit . . . what about the states that did NOT approve it . . . their rights are trampled.)

And any time I hear about states rights, I want to punch the hypocrit in the face. Here is another 'states rights' hypocrisy . .. the states have zero rights when it comes nuclear power safety. If a state tries to regulate, close down, or prevent a nuclear power plant over safety concerns that is completely illegal because the Feds have pre-empted all nuclear safety issues. And a GOP senator basically made the NRC into a pussy regulator by threatening to defund it if it kept doing its job well. So the NRC has basically been under regulatory capture since 1998. The last 10 years has been a long decline in safety standards. It is just a matter of time before we have a nuclear accident.

States rights my ass.
 
speculawyer said:
This bit of reality needs to be repeated over and over and over until it gets through. The deficit cannot be solved through spending cuts alone. The GOP tax religion refuses to acknowledge this reality.

It is also true that it cannot be solved through tax hikes alone BUT THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO ONE SAYING THAT IT CAN BE SOLVED THAT WAY. That is a big difference.

But it can be solved by doing approximately nothing, so that's weird.
 
polyh3dron said:
Fuck, I missed Bachmann this morning on CBS.

Did she say anything wacky?

EDIT: watching a clip now, she is talking about the NY same sex marriage bill passing. Says she would not appoint activist judges who legislate from the bench. I wonder if she'd be in favor of overturning Citizens United then..

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/06/26/ftn/main20074482.shtml?tag=strip

She did a pretty good job on both shows at not saying anything overtly crazy.

Although I still don't understand the gay marriage thing speculawyer... advocating a constitutional amendment by definition is trampling states rights since federal law trumps states laws... you can't be for NY's ability to decide what's best for them and simultaneously want an amendment preventing them from doing it... right?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Clevinger said:
Speaking of Bachmann:

Bachmann Says She Would Eliminate Minimum Wage to Spur Growth

Representative Michele Bachmann, a Minnesota Republican planning to seek the party's presidential nomination, said she would stoke U.S. economic growth by cutting taxes on corporate income and capital gains and considering elimination of the minimum wage.

:|

All things the general public disagrees with. What a brilliant plan. Does she actually think people are buying that argument now?
 
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