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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
- Thread starter Retromelon
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Deets? I find it hard to believe the people that couldn't stop him in the primaries would be able to do so at the convention.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I'm starting to think this as well. I think the RNC is going to watch how Manafort does without Corey around. If the campaign is still a shitshow, they'll pull him. It's suicide in November, but you can't win an election without organization in today's political world.
And for what it's worth, I don't think Corey was ever the real problem. At best he was a yes man, at worst a mouthpiece. He wasn't the source of the toxicity and strange decisions; Trump is at the root of all of it, and you can't fix that campaign. I legitimately cannot believe his funds are as low as they are.
Just pretend this was flipped and the Dem was running a campaign like this. I'd be ready for the next 4 years of a Republican president right now. Easily.
I think they've been ready for that for a bit now, ever since it was clear Trump was the nominee. They've never seriously thought he can win. The only reason this is coming up now is that they fear that their firewall in the House might be in jeopardy.
A new nominee might doom their chances just as much in November, but it'd be a calculated risk that his voters will largely back any Republican over Clinton and that by having a less toxic candidate, even if he would lose too given the situation, they might salvage the Congressional makeup.
DataStream
Member
excelsiorlef
Member
I think it's a risk that they could pull off.
GutsOfThor
Member
I'd like to know details as well. If it's true, what are the odds Clinton has been prepared for this?
The Trump fundraising situation may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. If Trump can't write a fat check to jumpstart his campaign and downticket races, people are going to bail. He very well may not be liquid enough to do it.
But who the fuck do they hand off the nom to lol. Cruz? He's not very popular, but I guess he understands the basics of fundraising
Someone has mentioned it before, but the advantage for us is that there are authority figures in the party that most of us respect. If Kanye got the nom and said he was gonna bomb every country that started with a vowel, then Obama could say "I endorse Brick Johnson to run as an independent" and people would listen and vote Indy. The Republican would probably still win, but at least there'd be some voice of reason
But who the fuck do they hand off the nom to lol. Cruz? He's not very popular, but I guess he understands the basics of fundraising
Someone has mentioned it before, but the advantage for us is that there are authority figures in the party that most of us respect. If Kanye got the nom and said he was gonna bomb every country that started with a vowel, then Obama could say "I endorse Brick Johnson to run as an independent" and people would listen and vote Indy. The Republican would probably still win, but at least there'd be some voice of reason
How does #DumpTrump help them from losing the House, though? I get the strategy, but do the numbers actually bear that out? Does Cruz or Rubio on the ticket really help keep those seats?
And above all, DumpTrump doesn't work because the convention is poised to be a Trump lovefest for days. To dump him at the end would just be insanity and remove any chance for a sense of unity full of Party First speeches and whatnot. You can't have Ivanka and Carson talk Trump up for a few days and follow it up with "Hey, please vote for Cruz in the fall."
Kicking out Trump would put the party in just as much disarray and incoherence as it is now with no time for a true unity message.
And above all, DumpTrump doesn't work because the convention is poised to be a Trump lovefest for days. To dump him at the end would just be insanity and remove any chance for a sense of unity full of Party First speeches and whatnot. You can't have Ivanka and Carson talk Trump up for a few days and follow it up with "Hey, please vote for Cruz in the fall."
Kicking out Trump would put the party in just as much disarray and incoherence as it is now with no time for a true unity message.
I'm catching up on it right now, but essentially we're starting with: His entire presidential run is precedented on paying himself and his family money. It's a giant scam. Of the 6.7 million spent in May, 1 million went to paying him and his family. If I heard this right, they've spent 60 million on paying themselves since the start of the primary.
His expenses do not resemble that of a presidential campaign, it is not targeted in the right areas.
Dumping in the next week/10 days is the only viable route. Once it hits July, it's less 3 weeks to the Convention, and they won't be able to spin out a party line against what Trump'll say in the media.
Fortunately, with Lewandowski gone, everyone's waiting a few days to see what Manafort does, and by the time they've figured that out, it'll hopefully be too late.
Fortunately, with Lewandowski gone, everyone's waiting a few days to see what Manafort does, and by the time they've figured that out, it'll hopefully be too late.
Middle of nowhere Cali or New Zealand? Hrm. I saw the other post...
Hrm. Welp, there goes that theory.
Unless it's a midwestern specific thing. I think the point Kris and Val are trying to make is that the sheer "black and white" aspect of the argument isn't an accurate one - that there is way more nuance and the factors leading to racism are far more complicated than "I want to be a bigot, eff them all", That's the easy and lazy way (and frankly IMO, in here, is purely virtue signaling) to go about it; rather than trying to actually change those who can be first.
I think that there is a difference between prejudice born of ignorance, and prejudice born of hatred. I think most people are redeemable (unless you want to ignore the civil rights movement and gay marriage and the insane progress it has made in a single lifetime) ultimately; and I think the fundamental difference is that of optimism and pessimism, and everyone will always find the anecdata they are looking for to continue to prove their point.
I don't like the H1-B thing because we sure as hell fuck over the actual people coming over. (As someone whose group is now half H1-B visas who have masters' degrees in either computer science or aerospace engineering). Lot of companies basically use it to abuse the shit out of the laborers, since if they let them go, they are sent back to their home country.
ITT: White nationalists who aren't white?
Seriously, if they were to steal the nomination from Trump, either Hannity would have Trump on every night to shit talk the RNC and urge them not to back those "pussies" or Trump would start his own show where he just says the same stuff.
No way in hell would Trump taking his removal lightly. And if there's one thing the GOP candidates are scared of, it's Trump's skill at branding them in the eyes of their own voters.
No way in hell would Trump taking his removal lightly. And if there's one thing the GOP candidates are scared of, it's Trump's skill at branding them in the eyes of their own voters.
It will also retain a whole lot of pissed people who think Trump was robbed and would try to do that again in the next cycle.
It will also fuck them down-ticket just bad (if not worse).
The GOP fucked up, it's going to get worse for them before it will get better.
I guess if they had a good candidate they could've maybe make a play, but they really don't, and really, who would want to get into that mess where you would lose anyway and fuck your political career?
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Even if they dump Trump the damage is already done. A new nominee isn't going to magically build the campaign infrastructure needed to win from the ground up with less than 5 months before the election. Nor will he be able to raise $1b in that span of time. Not to mention that Trump supporters would jump ship.
Trump has sabotaged the party to the point it almost seems deliberate.
Trump has sabotaged the party to the point it almost seems deliberate.
It is deliberate in the sense that the GOP base deliberately selected for incompetence.
Bill Clinton called Trump up on that rainy night and said, "How would you like to be a part of the greatest grift of all time, Donald?"
Brb, writing my fanfic now.
BlastProcessing
Member
Always jarring to see the words Rubio and dignity in the same sentence.
Start here.
Donald Trump talked politics with Bill Clinton weeks before launching 2016 bid
(Washington Post, August 5, 2015)
It's juuuuuust tinfoily enough that it'll spur speculation for years..
Nah, no one could have foresaw him actually winning the primary when he started. No, I'm pretty confident this has all been a book tour that did way better than it was expected to do.
I will not rule the idea that this was a favor by Trump for the Clintons 100% out.
Is it bad I really sort of hope this turns out to be the case?
Why do I have a feeling this is gonna go downhill real fast...
And there it is.
This election is already way too fucking crazy and I have a feeling it's gonna get a lot worse.
The Trump dumpster fire is growing and spreading to the entire GOP.
shinra-bansho
Member
As crass as it may sound a bunch of progress made is a result of regressive older people dying. Meanwhile people pointing to things like gay marriage as "rapid" are really ignoring the much work done earlier.
Also, Ellen DeGeneres probably had far more utility in "changing hearts and minds" than any politician.
Also, Ellen DeGeneres probably had far more utility in "changing hearts and minds" than any politician.
She really did. Not only The Puppy Episode, but simply by putting a safe, marketable, relatable face on the movement every afternoon in peoples' living rooms really took the scariness away from the issue.
In my dreams he lost a drinking bet to Hillary when the families got together for dinner & lol's.
edit:
Damn! She is going to tear this guy apart in the election , she seems to be looking forward to it as well
Box of Kittens
Banned
I mean, they would need to agree on a plan, get a majority of delegates on board with changing the rules, and unify around a candidate. All this from a completely dysfunctional party that's at war with itself. Never say never, but I don't see it happening.
excelsiorlef
Member
And she paid for it too at the time.
It was brutal her show was gone just like that a year later.
Too gay they said.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean, the guy they want to nominate is clearly Walker who has said he wants it, but Walker has zero delegates and only 3% of Republicans actually want Walker to be president... And, of course, Walker is a scrub.
So the guy that they'll have to give it to is Cruz and they're not going to endanger their very lives just to give Ted Cruz the nomination.
So the guy that they'll have to give it to is Cruz and they're not going to endanger their very lives just to give Ted Cruz the nomination.
excelsiorlef
Member
Shit in 1997, JC fucking Penny, Chrysler and Wendy's all decided to pull out from advertising during the airing of the episode, with Wendy's actually pulling support from the show from there on, and ABC refused pro gay groups offers for ad buys.
And Laura Dern didn't work for a year and a half after doing the guest spot on the show.
And the show aired with a Parental Warning from there on out.
That was 19 years ago.
Jesus.
And Laura Dern didn't work for a year and a half after doing the guest spot on the show.
And the show aired with a Parental Warning from there on out.
That was 19 years ago.
Jesus.
whyamihere
Banned
If you're going to troll, at least be clever.
I thought you couldn't change hearts and minds. Were these young viewers she was winning over who'd otherwise be bigots?
I thought it was a terrible show, but our family was cool with her doing it and supported her bravery. It was one of those formative things for me that helped shape my views (I was 14) on the subject and led to later activism and support on my part. Never really been a big fan of Ellen. To steal a line from Obama, doe, she's likable enough.
excelsiorlef
Member
I loved the show, it was just goofy fun.
A) Except...they really haven't? <stares at Trump>. As for pace...I mean, India is still dealing with a caste system that has been around 2000 years. One hundred years is the blink of an eye when it comes to social progress throughout history IMO. Insert quote about 100 miles and Europe vs 100 years and America.
B) I think between Ellen, Queer Eye, and Will & Grace, it helped take away the fear due to ignorance aspect of homosexuality.
Shhh....
excelsiorlef
Member
It still took cold legal reasoning of 5 Judges to grant same-sex people the right to marry across the US.
Hearts and minds only get you so far.
Think all this talk on GAF of Trump's demise is is really ignoring the facts. You can't underestimate people's ability to vote against their basic beliefs to make a single point.
http://www.npr.org/2016/06/21/48301...or-meeting-held-to-reassures-the-evangelicals
http://www.npr.org/2016/06/21/48301...or-meeting-held-to-reassures-the-evangelicals
I would say hearts and minds got you most of the way and then the judges swooped in to write their names on the trophy. What would you do when social issue x has very low public support, just wait?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
gross
well for one thing they have red on the left of the gradient and blue on the right, what is this fucking communist britain?
Yes. Any new candidate will start off massively handicapped.
The GOP had the opportunity to maintain more distance between themselves and Trump, but they screwed up when they saw the polls tighten after Trump became the presumptive nominee while the Democrat prinary was still running. They smelled victory and fell in line behind him, only for the Democrats to mostly sort themselves out while Trump made stumble after stumble.
The GOP being continually shortsighted throughout the whole race has led them into the worst position possible. There is now no realistic path to the Presidency, the risk of them losing control of the Senate is very real, and they'll lose ground in the House even though they'll likely retain it.
Their whole strategy from here should be focused on minimizing their losses, buckling down for the midterms, and rebuilding for 2020. If they swing for the fences here it will all come crashing down.
I don't think it's about the presidency. That's a wash, and every Republican leader with a brain knows it.
I think what we're witnessing now is a party trying to sort out how to best mitigate the damage.
I think Republicans are ultimately going to conclude that letting Trump go to November will be a lot more toxic for the party in the long run than biting the bullet and expelling not only him, but also his supporters that will continue to keep Republicans from producing winners from their primaries from here on out. The Republican base is just too out-of-step with the rest of the country. Burn them all.
I think what we're witnessing now is a party trying to sort out how to best mitigate the damage.
I think Republicans are ultimately going to conclude that letting Trump go to November will be a lot more toxic for the party in the long run than biting the bullet and expelling not only him, but also his supporters that will continue to keep Republicans from producing winners from their primaries from here on out. The Republican base is just too out-of-step with the rest of the country. Burn them all.
What does that 65% represent?
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