Glad trump is too stupid to take advantage of a softball.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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Glad trump is too stupid to take advantage of a softball.
Probably feel that Bernie can't control his voters anymore. They are going to do anything thy want now.
metalslimer
Member
Well trump has already put out the narrative that Clinton wasn't loyal enough to DWS
Are we really worried about Trump and his series of tweets?
Hobbestetrician
Member
So let me get this straight...
A reality star buffoon held a glorified Klan rally where he outlined his proto-fascist plan for America last week and now his buddies over in Russia release some emails to distract our ADD media and populace away from the white nationalist? And they fall for it?!
We are gonna give this country over to this fucking disgusting human being over some goddamn emails?
A reality star buffoon held a glorified Klan rally where he outlined his proto-fascist plan for America last week and now his buddies over in Russia release some emails to distract our ADD media and populace away from the white nationalist? And they fall for it?!
We are gonna give this country over to this fucking disgusting human being over some goddamn emails?
what the fuck are you talking about
trump is literally responding to the democratic statements
gutter_trash
Banned
Shit, that's a great ad
This is a guy who didn't put out any messaging for hours about his VP pick, or Hillary's!
He has like 2 surrogates to push his message, other than Twitter.
Jesus people.
User 463088
Banned
This is not a message. This is the ranting of a drunk person who wrestled their phone away from his handlers.
The Democrats handled this just about as well as we could. We had POTUS, Clinton, Bernie, DWS, the DNC all issue statements in support of what happened.
Rambling on Twitter is not a response.
TumblingHippo
Member
CNN: Fair and Balanced
Coriolanus
Banned
Of course not. You're gonna give it to him due to the string of terror attacks on the week preceding november 8.
It looks like he is trying to a/b test different spin takes. Test: does he double down on the spin with more retweets?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It was a joke, everyone. I had something similar about democrats earlier but was joking here because the subject doesn't mean anything. Sorry--should have better indicated my sarcasm.
This situation means almost nothing. Nobody will be talking about it after the convention.
Man I just don't know who's joking anymore. It seems everyone is on edge and worried about everything. I mean I guess it has merit lol.
That said can you imagine what we'll be talking about come September?
Democrats freak out over everything.
StopMakingSense
Member
I think between the demographics Florida, and Kasich fucking over Trump in Ohio, and Virginia out of play, I think it's all a done deal.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Is there even a chance Hillary loses Virginia?
After the amounts of shit you gave me for theorycrafting representatives by sortition... shucks, brainchild. You made a doozy.
It's tantamount to an oligarchy as others have already pointed out, and in times of war or crisis, the executive branch will be paralyzed or self-defeating when inevitable factions form around choice of response and strategy.
Fear mongering worked with relatively safe Republican candidates like Romney and McCain, it should also work against Trump. It has really turned out the voter registration in Latino communities and he is polling historically bad among blacks.
I don't buy that he has a chance for a second. He might do surprisingly well in the popular vote but the numbers for the electoral college just don't seem to work out.
I don't buy that he has a chance for a second. He might do surprisingly well in the popular vote but the numbers for the electoral college just don't seem to work out.
eBay Huckster
Member
tantamount to oligarchy? that's LITERALLY oligarchy
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm still curious as to the actual expected demographics. Is the amount of Hispanic likely voters expected to rise compared to 2012? If so, how much? Are the current polls using that information? I haven't seen that info anywhere.
Tons of folks have moved from Puerto Rico to Florida due to the current economic situation in Puerto Rico.
Meant to post this yesterday, but that Michael Moore thread reminded me. Can someone help me understand 538s model. I can't figure out why Clintons chance of winning Florida dropped from 70% to essentially tied with Trump in the last couple of weeks. What it looks like to me is that two polls showed Trump ahead in Florida, and they are weighing that trend in their calculations. Also is there a good primer on Nates model? I could use something to do while at work today.
This is a good article on the current demographics in Florida.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/
This is a good article on the current demographics in Florida.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Do you have numbers or information on their likelihood of voting?
Coriolanus
Banned
have you seen the things the british and brazilian left are up to as of late?
User 463088
Banned
I feel like all this postulating about fairness, but not one person ever questioned if the process of selecting a presidential nominee is fair to women or to minorities. A woman wins and suddenly there's loads of complaints about how the system is rigged. When has a political system ever been rigged for a woman or minority? What about fairness to women or minorities who have had all the disadvantages that being female or minority has awarded them in public life and politics?
I mean, it's very silly to argue whether this is fair to Sanders supporters when this subject was not raised for Hillary supporters in 2008, or whatever losing supporters were in previous primaries. No fairness was awarded to Hillary or to Obama, or to their supporters. Nobody would be saying "is this fair to Hillary supporters?" if Hillary had lost, they'd be telling the AA and Latinos to get in line and vote for Sanders. It's really shitty to be complaining about how rigged the system is against an old white man.
I don't really think so.
Trump has no operation; Clinton has inherited Obama's behemoth machine. Richmond is a swing area in the state; Kaine is well-liked there. The state has been moving away from the GOP already because of population growth, but I think this is the year where Virginia goes from Tossup to a Wisconsin-like Likely Blue state.
If this is a horror movie where the GOP is in a haunted house, Hillary winning Virginia is the first door to slam shut all by itself.
brainchild
Banned
It is obvious that I should have done a better job at explaining how the selection of parties would work because for some reason people got the impression that the government would be responsible for making up the parties, which is not at all what I meant to convey in my proposal.
Anyway, maybe one of these days when I'm super bored I'll draft up a constitution outline that clarifies my ideas. For now, you can just ignore it.
BTW, your sortition idea still sucks
That's why everyone's freaking out.
I don't have the numbers on the likelihood of voting, but I do know that it's 31% Cubans and 27% Puerto Ricans in terms of the Hispanic vote in Florida. I also know that Puerto Ricans lean Democrat while Cubans lean Republicans. I'll see if I can pull up some numbers.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
User 463088
Banned
Someone needs to take Trump's phone away from him!
This was a softball. You could have scored some easy points on this. Instead, he's sent like 15 Tweets today. Some of them praise Bernie. Some of them attack Bernie. Some of them talk about Crooked Hillary. Some of them talk about Kaine.
My god, get a SIMPLE message and run with it.
"The treatment of Bernie and his supporters shows that politics is rigged. That's why we need an outsider to bring about change!"
There done. Pin that shit and STFU.
God, he's so fucking stupid.
This was a softball. You could have scored some easy points on this. Instead, he's sent like 15 Tweets today. Some of them praise Bernie. Some of them attack Bernie. Some of them talk about Crooked Hillary. Some of them talk about Kaine.
My god, get a SIMPLE message and run with it.
"The treatment of Bernie and his supporters shows that politics is rigged. That's why we need an outsider to bring about change!"
There done. Pin that shit and STFU.
God, he's so fucking stupid.
eBay Huckster
Member
also that the cuban lean is decidedly less pronounced than it once was while the rican lean is as strong as ever
Shhh... you're giving them ideas!!
The crazy thing about Florida is that with Puerto Rico in shambles it might just be that Puerto Ricans doom the Republican party. More and more Puerto Ricans are leaving the island every day. The situation out there is grim from what all my family is saying, and friends are telling me. Republicans used to just be able to rely on the Cuban vote to help carry Florida, and pretty soon that may not be the case anymore. If Florida flips blue Republicans are doomed. Shit is crazy to think about as a man who is Puerto Rican.
Yup. I'm trying to find the numbers, but as I understand it younger Cubans lean Democrat now. Can't quite remember the age cutoff for that though. Will come back with some numbers in a bit.
Yup. I'm trying to find the numbers, but as I understand it younger Cubans lean Democrat now. Can't quite remember the age cutoff for that though. Will come back with some numbers in a bit.
User 463088
Banned
The Cuban vote is not as partisan as it used to be. Plus, the overall percentage of Cubans making up the Latino/Hispanic vote is down. It was like 40% in 1990, and it's in the upper 20s now. The PR vote share is increasing. The GOP needs to figure out another niche to carve out for itself among Florida's demographics. There arent enough white people to sustain them.
User 85168
Banned
Perfect
TheAbsolution
Member
Interview on 60 minutes on now.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
They did the same thing after Barry. I think the love will wear off quicker and i might be liable to get 'yelling old guy' on my national record.word up.
Prepare for the emails to start asking for more money and getting calls from "Unknown" asking for money
I'm glad I donated, but I could do without the phone calls lol
I have less patience for phone BS
One objection I'd like to expand upon (because I'm biased and think it's interesting) is that of multiple executives in a system with equal powers.
There are examples of how this can break down in practice, and my favourite is an old one that I feel still has a lot of relevance to the hypothetical. Republican Rome's system of two executive consuls broke down in spectacular fashion during the Second Punic War, with military command and strategy vacillating on a daily basis between two executives who didn't much care for each other. That sort of vacillation lost battles and nearly resulted in the collapse of the nation. The fix? One executive vision and strategy to recover, avoid further debilitating losses, and win the war in the long run through attrition and opportunity. In the Roman case that was through the invocation of a dictator term (then a political office of emergency, not yet the legal justification for permanent dictatorship), but what I'm getting at is the massive disadvantages of investing equal powers into multiple executive figures and the comparative strength of one executive vision. Think long on that one, and good luck in your thought experiments.
The Florida Hispanic electorate is changing. As you probably know, Florida has a lot of Cuban Americans, traditionally one of the most loyally Republic ethnic blocks in the US. Despite being well under 1% of our population, Cuban Americans are politically active and pretty affluent, dominating Miami politics and being vitally important in Florida elections. Had Cuban Americans not supported George W. Bush so strongly in 2000, Al Gore would have won Florida outright.
But since Obama's tenure, Cuban Americans have become less conservative. I'd bet a plurality of Cuban American millennials went for Bernie. I'm expecting most Cuban voters to side with Trump in November, but it won't be the kind of solid majority that could put him over the edge. Because Florida is such a politically divided state, our elections are always nail-biting. From 1992 to 2012, only one race saw the winner take a solid 51% of the vote, and that was George W. Bush in 2004. GWB was hugely popular with Cubans, which helped him with this win.
The wild card in 2016 will be Puerto Ricans, who tend to be less affluent, less Republican, and less likely to identify as white than Cubans. Puerto Ricans share a lot more in common with the Hispanic electorate at large, and are arriving in Central Florida in pretty large numbers. Traditionally, Florida outside of the Miami area hasn't had a large Hispanic population. But this is changing, and making Florida more Democratic. The ongoing economic turmoil on the island has sent hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans to Florida and New York, where they can immediately vote -- because they're already US citizens.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Im suprised DWS said she was going to resign so quickly. It makes her and the DNC look even more guilty. Up until now it could just be opinion based.
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