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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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Effect

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Normally candidates get bumps in their polling or they stay flat. What are the odds that Trump's numbers actually go down coming out of this convention?
 

Zeke

Member
I don't see how what he said wasn't sufficient. HUD didn't pay for the trip. He specifically said he was speaking as an individual, not as HUD Secretary.
Did he play himself out of queens vp pick?
I know he isn't going to get it but man can dream!
so he'll probably get slap on the wrist right?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Did he play himself out of queens vp pick?
I know he isn't going to get it but man can dream!
so he'll probably get slap on the wrist right?

It's up to Obama to take appropriate action. I mean, he specifically said he was taking his HUD hat off when he gave his opinion. The trip wasn't paid for by HUD. I'm not really sure how he violated the act, to be honest.

He wasn't getting the pick anyway, but ya...this wouldn't have helped his case.
 
Normally candidates get bumps in their polling or they stay flat. What are the odds that Trump's numbers actually go down coming out of this convention?

I think it depends. Most of it is going to rely on a combination of the media coverage and Donald's speech.

1. If the media covers this honestly, and by media I do not mean cable news media I mean local affiliates and nightly news on CBS/ABC/NBC which is where most people who don't give a shit get their politics news from, then it will probably hurt. Hearing about a lack of unity, crappy speakers, and general laughing about this would hurt.

2. The Donald's speech. If this is mostly off the cuff, unhinged, mexican are rapists, Donald Trump and a significant amount of undecided or not paying attention yet voters are really first introduced to him with a complete disaster of a speech, then he will crater.

Trump can't win the election at the RNC but he sure as hell can all but guarantee the loss.




BTW, anyone read McKay Coppins article on why Trump ran for President?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/how-the-haters-made-trump?utm_term=.afDdm8QYzO#.ybz797YGxB

Basically, his thesis is this: Donald Trump was born in a silver spoon in his mouth and all the elite people in his life don't take him seriously and laugh at him behind his back and thus he wants to win the Presidency to prove his worth. If you read the article and think about everything Trump has done and what he says, it all makes perfect sense. He's a spoiled rich kid who hates being mocked and is trying to get revenge.
 
Kasich seems like he's prime to be the front runner in the 2020 elections. Complete distancing from Trump and really popular. With a superdelegate like system, he could totally get it.

Regardless, good for him I guess for actually standing his ground and not attending this dumpster fire.
 
I saw the Clinton "Our children are watching" ad for the first time this weekend and I thought it was really good in terms of taking issue with Trumps character in a more emotional way.
 
Normally candidates get bumps in their polling or they stay flat. What are the odds that Trump's numbers actually go down coming out of this convention?

Expectations are so low that they will go up for sure. I mean he does a scripted speech and media will talk about how awesome it was due to no usual Trump stuff.
 
Undecided is usually around 5-10 percent no matter what right? You tack on 5-10% of democrats who still want Bernie and probably more like 15-20% of republicans who don't want trump (with some split to third party). Seems reasonable enough.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
35% undecided. Either this poll is crazy or the people in michigan are crazy.

How can there be 35% undecided!?

I wouldn't be shocked at all if there are still a lot of "I will vote Trump but don't want to tell anybody about it" people out there right now. The electorate in that state is crazy town.
 
These are not popular candidates and are hesitant at this point.

No, it's probably a crappy poll. CBS just had it 42-39 with 7 other during the same time frame. That's a 20 point gap! Come on now! These things don't happen.

Shit, just look at the men/women breakdown. Makes no sense. If you add the percentages and divide by 2, you get their final numbers.

How is this possible? There are more female voters. It's as if this pollster didn't even assign demographics of any kind.
 

Measley

Junior Member

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No, it's probably a crappy poll. CBS just had it 42-39 with 7 other during the same time frame. That's a 20 point gap! Come on now! These things don't happen.

Shit, just look at the men/women breakdown. Makes no sense. If you add the percentages and divide by 2, you get their final numbers.

How is this possible? There are more female voters. It's as if this pollster didn't even assign demographics of any kind.

I'm not defending the methodology, it's probably a crap poll but we're not spoiled for choice. It's either a crappy poll or people aren't enthusiastic about the candidates.
These are unpopular candidates and that will be a critical factor in November.
 
Oh now looking at crosstabs I was right it is a shitty poll.

5% say they aren't voting. HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU A LIKELY VOTER IF YOU ADMIT YOU AREN'T VOTING. 2% are "other" not listed. It's only 23% actually reported as undecided.

I'm not defending the methodology, it's probably a crap poll but we're not spoiled for choice. It's either a crappy poll or people aren't enthusiastic about the candidates.
These are unpopular candidates and that will be a critical factor in November.

Of course, I'm not denying this. But there's no way 1/3 people are undecided.
 

pigeon

Banned
Has me wondering, could all this insanity negate Trump's expected convention bump?

Absolutely. If you're watching this convention or the coverage of it do you feel compelled to come together to support the GOP candidate? I think you mostly feel validated in your intention not to vote for him.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
BTW, anyone read McKay Coppins article on why Trump ran for President?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/how-the-haters-made-trump?utm_term=.afDdm8QYzO#.ybz797YGxB

Basically, his thesis is this: Donald Trump was born in a silver spoon in his mouth and all the elite people in his life don't take him seriously and laugh at him behind his back and thus he wants to win the Presidency to prove his worth. If you read the article and think about everything Trump has done and what he says, it all makes perfect sense. He's a spoiled rich kid who hates being mocked and is trying to get revenge.

Yeah, I read that yesterday. Interesting stuff in there. Initially it doesn't sound surprising that a narcissistic douchebag like Trump would run for president just out of spite. But I figured he would have already done that in 2012, especially after how Obama wrecked him at the correspondents' dinner. Like last time, i figured this presidential run was just an attempt to bilk the rubes and/or increase his own exposure for the next season of the Apprentice.

Seeing that he's actually emotionally invested in this will make his defeat all the sweeter, though.
 
Yeah, I read that yesterday. Interesting stuff in there. Initially it doesn't sound surprising that a narcissistic douchebag like Trump would run for president just out of spite. But I figured he would have already done that in 2012, especially after how Obama wrecked him at the correspondents' dinner. Like last time, i figured this presidential run was just an attempt to bilk the rubes and/or increase his own exposure for the next season of the Apprentice.

Seeing that he's actually emotionally invested in this will make his defeat all the sweeter, though.

There was the article (I'm not sure from what source) that Trump has basically been sowing the seeds on a run for a while now. Basically he thought he could gain some power in the party and when he was rebuffed (especially him not getting to speak at the 2012 RNC) he just said fuck it
 
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