theprodigy
Member
even if this is technically true that is way too close for comfort
(also isn't it 270, or am I doing my math wrong?)
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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even if this is technically true that is way too close for comfort
(also isn't it 270, or am I doing my math wrong?)
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
God this pivot is outta control!
So he's going to do it at 4am on Twitter then.
Futurevoid
Member
He's not due for sentencing until October 5th. I don't see any action happening until then. Also, I remember seeing a report run by my twitter that the White House had made no inquiries at all to the DoJ concerning the pardon as of last week.
whyamihere
Banned
I'm just showing how malleable it all is.
Jesus, he is really the worst at everything.
Stop, I can only get so hard.
aspiegamer
Member
So... odds on there being any actual violence in Phoenix tonight? Last time a big-big city event was built up this heavily was Chicago where an actual minor riot broke out.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Trump wins everything he won in 2016, but Democrats win Texas and hit 270 
Mitch, I'm pretty sure there's a way you can figure out that would make it so you have to deal with some guy named Mike Pence and not Trump
Mitch, I'm pretty sure there's a way you can figure out that would make it so you have to deal with some guy named Mike Pence and not Trump
whyamihere
Banned
Anyways, with Arizona, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Nebraska 2, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Florida on the table, there's a ton of uncertainty and paths to 270 for everyone.
Dems will win the EV from ME-1 regardless.
Dems will win the EV from ME-1 regardless.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Hey Mitch, if you really don't like him, I can think of one thing you could do to really stick it to him.
theprodigy
Member
edit: nvm Trump already won ME-2 I'm dumb
ratcliffja
Member
Even if he brought up impeachment charges, there's no guarantee that he'd get enough votes to oust him. If Trump is impeached and acquitted, it will only hurt Mitch. I wouldn't be surprised if the started preliminary talks with other Republicans about how they'd vote in such a scenario, though.
Prof. Bathtub
Member
Sure, it cannot be "salvaged," but USS Pussitania can still destroy the country from the sea floor, and swapping in a different helmsman is a foreign concept to Mitch and co. A presidency cannot truly fail if it's still a presidency.
D
Deleted member 1159
Unconfirmed Member
The ability to whip enough votes to get President Pence should be easy for the GOP. It's hard to see not getting unanimous support from democrats so you'd only need to get less than half the GOP congress to go along
Gurgelhals
Member
Wouldn't impeachment proceedings have to start in the House anyway? IIRC, it's the House that votes to start the whole procedure (a simple majority is enough) and, at the end, the Senate would have to vote with a two thirds majority to actually unseat the President.
I'd bet that he wanted to, but cooler heads, like Kelly, talked him out of it.
But yeah, probably tomorrow, in a speech or a tweet, he's gonna say "you know what, I AM going to pardon Arpaio".
BoboBrazil
Member
Will be interesting to see how this rally goes tonight. He's holding way too much shit in right now trying to be nice lol.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
After 14 years in Afghanistan, why not done?
I thought he was gonna bail because of all the planned protests.
BoboBrazil
Member
There's supposed to be like 10,000 protestors there but it's not Chicago so if they are peaceful he will probably still show up lol
Aaron Strife
Banned
http://www.azhighground.com/blog/po...ardy-twelve-months-away-from-primary-election
Dunno how good this pollster is, but they have some really shitty numbers for Jeff Flake.
Jeff Flake (R) 28
Kelli Ward (R) 43
Jeff Flake (R) 33
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 41
Kelli Ward (R) 31
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 32
Dunno how good this pollster is, but they have some really shitty numbers for Jeff Flake.
Jeff Flake (R) 28
Kelli Ward (R) 43
Jeff Flake (R) 33
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 41
Kelli Ward (R) 31
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 32
whyamihere
Banned
N=400 is the lowest you can get while still being acceptable so, eh. I don't buy this.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Thanks for the information.
I'm curious if Trafalgar was actually able to better poll rural voters in those Midwestern states or if it was just dumb luck.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think it is true that Flake is in trouble, but I'd want to see a more reputable pollster dive in here, much like with the Roanoke poll of Virginia (which also lines up with my expectations, but they suck).
Like PPP should do an actual poll with Sinema and Ward, instead of generic approve/disapprove and "Democratic opponent" questions.
Wonder if Trump gives Ward a shout-out tonight. A president endorsing a primary challenger to an incumbent would be fairly unprecedented (think Bush endorsing Chafee in 2006, or Obama endorsing Specter in 2010 - ironically, they both lost), but what isn't about this fucking administration.
Jumping into a primary in this cycle on the GOP side is....sort of suicidal. Politics in the US is cyclical and waiting 4-6 years is a safer bet.
neurosisxeno
Member
Am I the only one who noticed Trump incorrectly claimed we'd been in Afghanistan for 18 years in his speech?
He vacillated between 14,16, and 18.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Recently he made some comments that, while not confirming one way or the other, suggest he's not super interested in the gig.
The Mercers just injected $300 grand into Ward's campaign and Trump sent out a tweet about her, so I think she's their candidate.
It would be sweet if the number of protesters completely dwarf the number attending his rally.
neurosisxeno
Member
He can't remember how long it's been since Bush won, we invaded Afghanistan, and we invaded Iraq apparently.
Flake would have been complete toast if DeWitt had jumped in. He might be able to hang out just because of how bad Ward is.
Though he'll hopefully lose in the general regardless.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I want Ward to win the primary and lose the general.
I'd rather the establishment GOP be the ones to say "I told you so" than fucking Trump.
Virginia is not going to be that competitive in 2020.
Interesting article on Haley's time as UN Ambassador.
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/22/16072526/nikki-haley-running-president-trump
I think she's setting herself up for future runs, knowing this whole current Trump kick will die out. She's a pretty dangerous opponent, IMO.
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/22/16072526/nikki-haley-running-president-trump
I think she's setting herself up for future runs, knowing this whole current Trump kick will die out. She's a pretty dangerous opponent, IMO.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm tempted to bring up the wall of quote shame for 'Pennsylvania is not going to be that competitive in 2016.'
aspiegamer
Member
Which is precisely why they sent her to fail at the UN, with the absolutely impossible task of having to tell every other country to try to not listen to Trump. Career suicide, but not really a position you can refuse. The confederate flag removal would also seriously hurt her in a GOP primary.
adamsappel
Member
When my wife insists I shovel snow out of the driveway, I tell her to say at my funeral that at least I died doing what I truly loved.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Virginia is moving more blue, PA is moving more red, these aren't comparable at all.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm just skeptical of the idea that in 2017 we can safely declare a state that went 5.32% Clinton necessarily safe. It was Clinton's neglect of the blue wall and assumption that prior margins would be maintained that lead to her overreach and defeat. I'd hate to see the Democrats aim for the repeat. Any reasonably close state Clinton won should be appropriately reinvested in campaign-wise - that includes Virginia.
It's questionable if PA will be as red as it was last year in 2020. I could easily see VA being a high single digit win for the democrats in 2020 if things don't change at this point.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
A tad off topic, but something that really disappoints me is that if Letterman still was doing his show, he'd have put that "Trump staring into the eclipse" picture up every night for a month.
I miss The Late Show with David Letterman
I miss The Late Show with David Letterman
Unless trump somehow is able to appeal to college educated voters and minorities I don't think VA is in danger of turning red or being that competitive. The democrats will likely still treat VA as a swing state in 2020 unless polling says otherwise by then.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
A tad off topic, but something that really disappoints me is that if Letterman still was doing his show, he'd have put that "Trump staring into the eclipse" picture up every night for a month.
I miss The Late Show with David Letterman
God, Letterman would've been so brutal to Trump. The most brutal of any of the hosts.
Mr. Lemming
Member
Yeah, the parts of PA that are growing are pretty blue areas.
whyamihere
Banned
I just don't think you can make a ton of assumptions about 2020 and have to be comfortable that there's a ton of uncertainty and probably more so than 2016. There are a lot of really strange combinations that are reasonable and there's something that resembles Carter's map where he was able to cobble together disparate groups to get to 270. Is that Trump's map in 2016? A Democrats's map in 2020? I don't know yet. I'm not willing to count anything out besides the obvious.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Virginia was more blue in 2016 than it was in 2012, compared to the popular vote. In a bad year for the Democrats.
If a Republican is winning VA, they're already winning the presidency.
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