Yup. It's a washout bellweather, not an actual swing state.If a Republican is winning VA, they're already winning the presidency.
Yup. It's a washout bellweather, not an actual swing state.If a Republican is winning VA, they're already winning the presidency.
I just don't think you can make a ton of assumptions about 2020 and have to be comfortable that there's a ton of uncertainty and probably more so than 2016. There are a lot of really strange combinations that are reasonable and there's something that resembles Carter's map where he was able to cobble together disparate groups to get to 270. Is that Trump's map in 2016? A Democrats's map in 2020? I don't know yet. I'm not willing to count anything out besides the obvious.
I'm tempted to bring up the wall of quote shame for 'Pennsylvania is not going to be that competitive in 2016.'
Oh you mean the state that doesn't have Arlington county but had voter suppression
God, Letterman would've been so brutal to Trump. The most brutal of any of the hosts.
The issue with PA is that there's still some low-hanging fruit for the GOP in the form of socially conservative union Dems. PA's backslide to a swing state was built on old school Democrats wandering off. Though the red parts of the state are definitely in decline population wise, there's still room for the GOP to work within that decline.
Because of Pittsburgh and Philly being growing regions nowadays, though, the state shouldn't go full red at any point now or in the long term.
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
Unless the red parts get redder. Which, they could!
(I foresee that PA will be a closely contested state for the near future)
They will if Dems say Rural America is gone and expect suburbs and cities to carry them.Unless the red parts get redder. Which, they could!
They will if Dems say Rural America is gone and expect suburbs and cities to carry them.
Banking on that is a terrible bet. Especially if they pull a Trump and Dump and nominate a more moderate republican again. Will immediately erode any improvements made in there
This I doubt. Colorado and Virginia were always going to be her best swing states. And iirc the non-college whites in PA are a far higher % than VA. And VA is more diverse.
Nah. I think she would have still won it by a decent margin without Kaine on the ticket. Trump weakest demographics was college educated voters and minorities.The state has a lot of college educated voters and minorities.
Kaine didn't give Hillary 5% of the vote in VA
EhThink Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
Rubio lost Virginia in the primary.I suppose so. Guess that makes sense how Rubio managed to win Virginia in the GOP primary then
Colorado and Virginia were both trending blue since 08. The fact they both held, as well as NV, in the Trump wave should show they're heading in the opposite direction of PA, MI and WI.
No, she was winning it easily either way. Hillary beat Sanders here, Northam beat Pierello easily, etc. It's the example that we're looking to in the "Sunbelt states" where a diverse, growing, highly educated urban/suburban population drags the state into the future.Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
And to be clear on this, this isn't just immigrants- VA is 20% black.Nah. I think she would have still won it by a decent margin without Kaine on the ticket. Trump weakest demographics was college educated voters and minorities.The state has a lot of college educated voters and minorities.
But they'll immediately bring back a lot of the suburban "family values" voters in. Maybe they'll even be motivated to turn out after all this Trump nonsense. Rural areas won't turn out in high numbers perhaps but they'll still be incredibly red if not more if Democrats don't try to reach out and limit the damageA moderate Republican wouldn't bring the racists out of the woodwork to vote.
I wouldn't be to sure about NV right now. If I recall hilary did worse or about equal to her national polling there.
Oh whoopsRubio lost Virginia in the primary.
Minnesota, DC, Puerto RicoOh whoops
What state did he win then? Could have sworn that was the one place he got
But they'll immediately bring back a lot of the suburban "family values" voters in. Maybe they'll even be motivated to turn out after all this Trump nonsense. Rural areas won't turn out in high numbers perhaps but they'll still be incredibly red if not more if Democrats don't try to reach out and limit the damage
this post honestly makes me less confident than I was before reading itLol if VA survived 2016 it will survive anything. Not even, you know, Diablosing about that.
Nevada is a mini Florida. There's no reason to think it won't be a swing state for some time to come.
I think Democrats need to focus on the states that get them to 270 electoral votes.
They didn't matter to Romney because Obama actually did what he needed to do to try and limit the damage in areas he wasn't demographically favorable in. Had he not parked his ass in nowhere Iowa, maybe he doesn't win. Iirc he pointed that out in one of his last press conferences after Hillary lost.Suburban "family values" voters don't matter. They didn't matter to Romney, and they certainly didn't matter to Clinton.
Rural voters >>>>>>>>>>> random suburban soccer moms that can stomach a vote for Clinton because Trump said naughty words on TV
They're two sides of the same coin. A strong Hispanic turnout in Nevada can counter the rural white vote while the exact opposite is true in Florida as we saw this year from all the Confederates in the Panhandle showing up out of nowhere.
Exactly. But both of them strike a delicate balance. Like I don't really see any federal election in either state decided by more than a handful of points anytime in the near future. Their cocktail of demographics give both parties a high floor and a low ceiling.
Even if he brought up impeachment charges, there's no guarantee that he'd get enough votes to oust him. If Trump is impeached and acquitted, it will only hurt Mitch. I wouldn't be surprised if the started preliminary talks with other Republicans about how they'd vote in such a scenario, though.
https://twitter.com/tomlobianco/status/900138361641459713Glenn Simpson clocks in at 10 hrs in front of Senate Judiciary staff today. Wow.
There are no voter ID laws in Pennsylvania. Hillary lost it all on her own.
Founder of Fusion GPS, the company that hired Christopher Steele >>
https://twitter.com/tomlobianco/status/900138361641459713
We are stuck in the dark ages and it's never gonna change. Old state is old.There is absolutely no early voting in pa and absentee voting is impossible to get, they are backwards as fuck there.
There is absolutely no early voting in pa and absentee voting is impossible to get, they are backwards as fuck there.
Sure. There are other states Hillary was able to win with more stringent voting laws.
Maybe it wasn't the laws, maybe it was the candidate that lost Pennsylvania.
Why
Oregon :')
I don't believe it's real, it has to be a joke. It has to be.
Oregon used to ban black people from emigrating thereI can buy the heritage argument from some Southerners I know around here, but if you're in fucking Oregon, you don't really have a good argument for flying that shit.
Isn't Oregon a liberal paradise?I don't believe it's real, it has to be a joke. It has to be.