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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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mo60

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I just don't think you can make a ton of assumptions about 2020 and have to be comfortable that there's a ton of uncertainty and probably more so than 2016. There are a lot of really strange combinations that are reasonable and there's something that resembles Carter's map where he was able to cobble together disparate groups to get to 270. Is that Trump's map in 2016? A Democrats's map in 2020? I don't know yet. I'm not willing to count anything out besides the obvious.

I could see a state like Minnesota somewhow being trump friendly in 2020, but it's questionable if he would even win VA at this point in 2020. The only way he wins virgina at this point if turnout dramatically drops off in northern virgina for the democrats and southern virgina turns out in high numbers for trump.
 

Ogodei

Member
The issue with PA is that there's still some low-hanging fruit for the GOP in the form of socially conservative union Dems. PA's backslide to a swing state was built on old school Democrats wandering off. Though the red parts of the state are definitely in decline population wise, there's still room for the GOP to work within that decline.

Because of Pittsburgh and Philly being growing regions nowadays, though, the state shouldn't go full red at any point now or in the long term.
 
The issue with PA is that there's still some low-hanging fruit for the GOP in the form of socially conservative union Dems. PA's backslide to a swing state was built on old school Democrats wandering off. Though the red parts of the state are definitely in decline population wise, there's still room for the GOP to work within that decline.

Because of Pittsburgh and Philly being growing regions nowadays, though, the state shouldn't go full red at any point now or in the long term.

Unless the red parts get redder. Which, they could!

(I foresee that PA will be a closely contested state for the near future)
 
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird

This I doubt. Colorado and Virginia were always going to be her best swing states. And iirc the non-college whites in PA are a far higher % than VA. And VA is more diverse.
 

mo60

Member
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird

Nah. I think she would have still won it by a decent margin without Kaine on the ticket. Trump weakest demographics was college educated voters and minorities.The state has a lot of college educated voters and minorities.
 

Ogodei

Member
Unless the red parts get redder. Which, they could!

(I foresee that PA will be a closely contested state for the near future)

The red/blue mix in the red parts tend to be built on small towns that have blue populations. Places like Wilkes-Barre, Altoona, Aliquippa, and New Castle all have sizeable black communities.

Though like i said, there's definitely room for growth in the white working class.
 
Unless the red parts get redder. Which, they could!
They will if Dems say Rural America is gone and expect suburbs and cities to carry them.

Banking on that is a terrible bet. Especially if they pull a Trump and Dump and nominate a more moderate republican again. Will immediately erode any improvements made in there
 
They will if Dems say Rural America is gone and expect suburbs and cities to carry them.

Banking on that is a terrible bet. Especially if they pull a Trump and Dump and nominate a more moderate republican again. Will immediately erode any improvements made in there

A moderate Republican wouldn't bring the racists out of the woodwork to vote.
 

Kusagari

Member
Colorado and Virginia were both trending blue since 08. The fact they both held, as well as NV, in the Trump wave should show they're heading in the opposite direction of PA, MI and WI.
 
This I doubt. Colorado and Virginia were always going to be her best swing states. And iirc the non-college whites in PA are a far higher % than VA. And VA is more diverse.

Nah. I think she would have still won it by a decent margin without Kaine on the ticket. Trump weakest demographics was college educated voters and minorities.The state has a lot of college educated voters and minorities.

Kaine didn't give Hillary 5% of the vote in VA

I suppose so. Guess that makes sense how Rubio managed to win Virginia in the GOP primary then
 
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
Eh

Virginia isn't that similar to Pennsylvania at all. The Appalachian part of the state is very small (and was already redder than Pennsylvania's, I think) and there isn't really any sort of equivalent place like Erie or Scranton.

Which isn't to say Viriginia is 100% For Sure Never Going To Go Red Again Ever (though that's a far less ridiculous assumption than the "Nevada is a blue state now" comments) but I wouldn't link it as being similar to Pennsylvania, even though the two are close geographically. I also just don't think anyone really cares about home state VPs.
 

mo60

Member
Colorado and Virginia were both trending blue since 08. The fact they both held, as well as NV, in the Trump wave should show they're heading in the opposite direction of PA, MI and WI.

I wouldn't be to sure about NV right now. If I recall hilary did worse or about equal to her national popular vote margin there.
 

kirblar

Member
Think Hillary probably loses Virginia without Kaine on the ticket. Losing Pennsylvania but winning Virginia is too weird
No, she was winning it easily either way. Hillary beat Sanders here, Northam beat Pierello easily, etc. It's the example that we're looking to in the "Sunbelt states" where a diverse, growing, highly educated urban/suburban population drags the state into the future.

Clinton did not need Kaine in order to win VA and it's one of many reasons why that pick was a mistake.
Nah. I think she would have still won it by a decent margin without Kaine on the ticket. Trump weakest demographics was college educated voters and minorities.The state has a lot of college educated voters and minorities.
And to be clear on this, this isn't just immigrants- VA is 20% black.
 
A moderate Republican wouldn't bring the racists out of the woodwork to vote.
But they'll immediately bring back a lot of the suburban "family values" voters in. Maybe they'll even be motivated to turn out after all this Trump nonsense. Rural areas won't turn out in high numbers perhaps but they'll still be incredibly red if not more if Democrats don't try to reach out and limit the damage
 

Kusagari

Member
I wouldn't be to sure about NV right now. If I recall hilary did worse or about equal to her national polling there.

Nevada also has a very high amount of non-college educated whites. It was prime for the picking in 2016 considering that was Trump's biggest base and he couldn't do it. It doesn't exactly bode well for the GOP in the future there.

Obviously that doesn't mean it won't flip, but it's more lean-blue than the other three to me right now.
 
But they'll immediately bring back a lot of the suburban "family values" voters in. Maybe they'll even be motivated to turn out after all this Trump nonsense. Rural areas won't turn out in high numbers perhaps but they'll still be incredibly red if not more if Democrats don't try to reach out and limit the damage

Suburban "family values" voters don't matter. They didn't matter to Romney, and they certainly didn't matter to Clinton.

Rural voters >>>>>>>>>>> random suburban soccer moms that can stomach a vote for Clinton because Trump said naughty words on TV
 

Kusagari

Member
Nevada is a mini Florida. There's no reason to think it won't be a swing state for some time to come.

They're two sides of the same coin. A strong Hispanic turnout in Nevada can counter the rural white vote while the exact opposite is true in Florida as we saw this year from all the Confederates in the Panhandle showing up out of nowhere.
 
Suburban "family values" voters don't matter. They didn't matter to Romney, and they certainly didn't matter to Clinton.

Rural voters >>>>>>>>>>> random suburban soccer moms that can stomach a vote for Clinton because Trump said naughty words on TV
They didn't matter to Romney because Obama actually did what he needed to do to try and limit the damage in areas he wasn't demographically favorable in. Had he not parked his ass in nowhere Iowa, maybe he doesn't win. Iirc he pointed that out in one of his last press conferences after Hillary lost.
 
They're two sides of the same coin. A strong Hispanic turnout in Nevada can counter the rural white vote while the exact opposite is true in Florida as we saw this year from all the Confederates in the Panhandle showing up out of nowhere.

Exactly. But both of them strike a delicate balance. Like I don't really see any federal election in either state decided by more than a handful of points anytime in the near future. Their cocktail of demographics give both parties a high floor and a low ceiling.
 

mo60

Member
Exactly. But both of them strike a delicate balance. Like I don't really see any federal election in either state decided by more than a handful of points anytime in the near future. Their cocktail of demographics give both parties a high floor and a low ceiling.

But if trump is still on the ticket in 2020 I could see both states(especially Nevada) swinging pretty democratic if nothing changes at this point or things get worse for him.
 
Even if he brought up impeachment charges, there's no guarantee that he'd get enough votes to oust him. If Trump is impeached and acquitted, it will only hurt Mitch. I wouldn't be surprised if the started preliminary talks with other Republicans about how they'd vote in such a scenario, though.

It's called "which 19 of yall will help me boot this fucker? I get that and I can talk Ryan into letting Pelosi's bill on the floor. ... Nah, Elaine's fine with it. Hell, she said I'd be doing her a favor."

Anything less is delaying the inevitable, and for him and his GOP buddies, this breaking during 2018, with more damage to them and the country.
 
There is absolutely no early voting in pa and absentee voting is impossible to get, they are backwards as fuck there.

Sure. There are other states Hillary was able to win with more stringent voting laws.

Maybe it wasn't the laws, maybe it was the candidate that lost Pennsylvania.
 
Sure. There are other states Hillary was able to win with more stringent voting laws.

Maybe it wasn't the laws, maybe it was the candidate that lost Pennsylvania.

......and by a ludicrously small margin at that. I'd have to look but the African American vote turnout was down from 2012 in PA, I believe. Especially in key counties in Philly, no?
 
gKhDKoV.jpg


Oregon :')
 
I can buy the heritage argument from some Southerners I know around here, but if you're in fucking Oregon, you don't really have a good argument for flying that shit.

And as for Virginia, I think over a few decades, it could end up being a reverse Southern state where it mostly goes blue in statewide elections, but where Republicans have a very high floor for their vote. VA will never be CA, but it could end up better than most rural places.
 
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