ArchedThunder
Banned
So basically 51 million in 3 years is behind both the Wii and PS2 and people are still saying it would be impossible.
51 million? Can Sony actually manufacture that many by 2016? I'm not sure.
Didn't GT6 sell terribly? They have to compete with Horizon Project Cars Drive Club etc. I don't see that being a big factor anymore.
Yeah, I realized after looking at that it really wouldn't be a big deal to SELL that many if it can be the most successful console this generation, never mind that merely producing that many is perfectly feasible. Especially in the era of Foxconn.So basically 51 million in 3 years is behind both the Wii and PS2 and people are still saying it would be impossible.
51M is a tall order. I think the brightest projection for LTD by end of this year is 15M. They'd need to increase the average sale rate since launch to hit 51M by end of 2016.
This. 51 million in 2 years sounds fucking insane. Currently Sony is average roughly 1 million sold per month, no? Wouldn't that be close to 25-30 million sold by 2016? 25 million would be good, 30 million would be great, 51 million seems impossible.
This. 51 million in 2 years sounds fucking insane. Currently Sony is average roughly 1 million sold per month, no? Wouldn't that be close to 25-30 million sold by 2016? 25 million would be good, 30 million would be great, 51 million seems impossible.
Will easily reach 51m sometime in 2016. In 3 years, it will both have had a 100 dollar/euro pricecut as wel as a slim model on the market.
PS4 had sold 5 million by the end of 2013. 51 - 5 = 46.
So to hit 51 million mark by the end of 2016, PS4 would need to sell ~1.2-1.3 (46/36) million a month.
PS4 is averaging 1 million a month right now. Either the Japanese sells will have to pick up considerably, or China (if and once PS4 releases there) is going to have to make up those sells.
PS4 had sold 5 million by the end of 2013.
I can't see 51 million being sold by 2015.
Bear in mind though that it is selling roughly 1 million a month during slow sales months.
Holiday sales (November/December) would be what, almost triple that figure per month?
Also keep in mind that the rate has been slowing down since january. I can't imagine the PS4 doing a million a month from now until the Fall.
Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.
That and the fact that potential buyers have no exclusives to look forward to until Fall.
Calendar year-to-date, EA continues to be the #1 publisher on PlayStation®4 and Xbox One consoles in the Western World led by FIFA 14, Titanfall, Battlefield 4, Need For Speed Rivals and Madden NFL 25.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, EA titles represented 40% of Western World combined title sales for the PlayStation®4 and Xbox One.
Oh look, facts!November 2013 - December 2016 = 38 months.
Last gen consoles sales during their first 38 months:
Nintendo Wii - 67.45 million
PlayStation 3 - 33.50 million
Xbox 360 - 28.60 million
EA had a lineup of either well made cross gen games (NFS:Rivals, BF4 ALMOST counts) or annual sports titles that managed to make it at launch (Madden, Fifa.) Next to no one is buying these systems for Killzone or Ryse, more likely the exclusives they have their eyes on are games like Uncharted 4, Project Beast, Halo, and Quantum Break.Looking at the EA fiscal report, I don't think it's the exclusives that sell the systems.
It will easily be over 15M by the end of the year if they can produce enough for the Holiday period. 15M is a pessimist number.
Return of the king.
Wow, hindsight really is 20/20. Those numbers look insane vs reality.
EA had a lineup of either well made cross gen games (NFS:Rivals, BF4 ALMOST counts) or annual sports titles that managed to make it at launch (Madden, NFL.) Next to no one is buying these systems for Killzone or Ryse, more likely the exclusives they have their eyes on are games like Uncharted 4, Project Beast, Halo, and Quantum Break.
Granted even when the exclusives come out and are flowing they only seem to be a sure thing to push systems on Nintendo platforms, but certainly the ones out at launch aren't the most exciting, and even the better ones are arguably downgrades from before (Forza and Dead Rising.)
This seems ridiculously high. No offense to Sony, because their new system is selling very, very well; but I don't think they can even produce 51,000,000 consoles in 3 years. Sony is probably sitting just south of 8 million sold right now and we are a full six months into this generation already (a sixth of the time that these guys think Sony can sell 51 million).
I just don't see it. Even if Sony keeps up the momentum that they have now they will not be able to hit 50 million by that time.
I hope I'm wrong... but I doubt it.
Return of the king.
I was going to post this also. It is clear they have no idea what they are talking about. That forecast and the one they did a couple years later were FAR off from what really happened.Not saying it won't happen, but never forget:
Predictions at the start of a generation generally end up inaccurate. The PS4 is off to a brilliant start, but this industry has proven more than once to be unpredictable.
51 million in two years isvery respectableinsanely good.
51 million in two years is very respectable.
Return of the king.
If it kept that exact trajectory it'd be 7 times 6 half years, resulting in 42 million by the time the PS4 turns 3 in 2016. And when you consider holiday spikes especially with more system selling games it definitely sounds doable.I.dont think thats a likely number. We are already.to May and it has only sold 7 million.
What is this from?Return of the king.