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[GamerEDM]

PS5 Expected to Ship 6 Million Units by March 2021 According to Japanese Analyst

PS5 Expected to Ship 6 Million Units by March 2021 According to Japanese Analyst

Following Sony's financial results announcement for the past quarter, analyst Hideki Yasuda from Osaka-based firm Ace Research Institute weighed in.

twinfinite.net

By
Giuseppe Nelva
Published on February 17, 2020


Following Sony’s announcement of its financial results for the past quarter, analyst Hideki Yasuda from prominent Osaka-based firm Ace Research Institute posted his analysis about the performance of PS5.

Yasuda-san’s name is rather well-known in Japan due to his analysis and predictions focused on the gaming market.

According to him, both PS5 and PS4 should ship 6 million units during the next fiscal year, which will end on March 31, 2021.

Yasuda-san also mentions that supply and demand of components by DRAM is expected to be tight, but he doesn’t think that it’ll be a big problem.

However, since the slowdown of PS4 sales has become evident, expectations for the PS5’s launch are going to increase.

Of course, since the analysis was posted at the beginning of the Coronavirus outbreak, it remains to be seen if it’ll have any effect on parts supply.

We should also keep in mind that this is an analysis by an industry professional based on his experience, so it should be taken with the customary grain of salt.

During Sony’s financial conference call, CFO Kenichiro Yoshida mentioned that the company still didn’t have a firm grasp on the possible effects of the outbreak, even if he talked about it only in general terms and not specifically about the console market.

Incidentally, we also heard during the call that Sony is aiming for a smooth generational transition (in financial terms) due to the revenue provided by PlayStation Plus and other network services.

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

Sony Interactive Entertainment won.

 

[mejin]

No, please. No.

 

[Gargus]

I'll buy one.

 

[Vawn]

This thing is going be seriously limited because of parts shortages. I fear this could be the Wii situation again where it takes years to get to the point where you can just walk into a store and pick one up.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Impressive prediction.

No info yet on price, date, supply, games.

 

[Shin]

.

You filthy N4G user

 

[GamerEDM]

You filthy N4G user

i plead the fifth

 

[Neff]

Gonna need games first

 

[darkinstinct]

Impressive prediction.

No info yet on price, date, supply, games.

Exactly. PS4 managed to do 5 million by end of February 2014 at 399. If PS5 is 499, there is no way it will have the same sales curve. Xbox won't be as weak again. There were midgen refreshes. It's quite a thing to suggest it will be a repeat of PS4 when literally everything is different this time around.

 

[ethomaz]

That is less than PS4.

PS4 shipped 7.5m at same time.

I predict the console will be hard to find lol
I was hoping Sony will be all-in this new gen with tons of PA5 shipped

 

[EverydayBeast]

This thing is going be seriously limited because of parts shortages. I fear this could be the Wii situation again where it takes years to get to the point where you can just walk into a store and pick one up.

Shopping for the Wii at launch was intense those consoles were gone.

 

[GamerEDM]

i wonder how much a 100 dollar price increase will impact sales vs PS4

 

[ethomaz]

i wonder how much a 100 dollar price increase will impact sales vs PS4

Early adopters don’t care about price.
Price start to be a factor after 10 million or more.

 

[Woo-Fu]

This thing is going be seriously limited because of parts shortages. I fear this could be the Wii situation again where it takes years to get to the point where you can just walk into a store and pick one up.

The difference this time is it won't be intentional.

 

[Moses85]

Exactly. PS4 managed to do 5 million by end of February 2014 at 399. If PS5 is 499, there is no way it will have the same sales curve. Xbox won't be as weak again. There were midgen refreshes. It's quite a thing to suggest it will be a repeat of PS4 when literally everything is different this time around.

Sony Fans are Faithful, so I can imagine this to happen.

 

[jts]

The difference this time is it won't be intentional.

Nintendo just didn't want to make too much money. It's immoral.

 

[Justin9mm]

i wonder how much a 100 dollar price increase will impact sales vs PS4

PS4 should still go strong, especially with a another price drop when PS5 releases. As far as PS5, depending on supply, I don't think there will be any negative impact. People with half a brain should know you are still getting value for your money. I'd rather buy the PS5 for $100 more with games then a $100 less XSX with no games. Plus people who already own a PS4 are not simply going to switch to Xbox after investing in the Sony ecosystem over $100. Its not the same as when Microsoft did it with the Xbox One because apart from the higher price tag, it failed on so many other levels.

 

[Entroyp]

Is that good or bad? (If Sony meets those expectations)

 

[Woo-Fu]

Nintendo just didn't want to make too much money. It's immoral.

Just the opposite. They didn't want to lose too much money by misjudging demand at any point in the cycle. Go with a conservative estimate, knock another 10-15% off and rest assured you're not going to be stuck with a bunch of stock you can't move except at a loss and/or retooling costs for assembly lines that couldn't be recouped within a relatively brief window.

It makes perfect business sense when you know what is involved in the decision and is right in line with Nintendo's conservative approach to most aspects of the business.

 

[GamerEDM]

i remember working at best buy when Wii launched and it was like the lesser the supply the more people wen't crazy for it. I understand though it can have the opposite effect if buyers have to wait to long they might just go and buy another console.

 

[BadBurger]

I'm ready for day one, to get it all set up, take some pics to share on social media, then have no games to play for a month

 

[jts]

Just the opposite. They didn't want to lose too much money by misjudging demand at any point in the cycle. Go with a conservative estimate, knock another 10-15% off and rest assured you're not going to be stuck with a bunch of stock you can't move except at a loss and/or retooling costs for assembly lines that couldn't be recouped within a relatively brief window.

It makes perfect business sense when you know what is involved in the decision and is right in line with Nintendo's conservative approach to most aspects of the business.

I was joking because that argument is sometimes used to say that somehow Nintendo holding back stock drives demand up. Glad to see that's not what was meant.

That being said, I agree with you, and Nintendo is a conservative company and that has kept them out of trouble even through harder times, but just-in-time inventory is also becoming more and more the norm and goal for most hardware companies. Of course, that still leaves some room for different approaches to demand estimates.

 

[Jigsaah]

Nice, seems there's a promise kept if they do, and a scapegoat if they don't.

Fantastic...can we see the damn thing now?

 

[Cert.in.Death]

SHIPPED =/= SOLD

Biased, uninformed OP

/s

 

[Gamernyc78]

PS5 Expected to Ship 6 Million Units by March 2021 According to Japanese Analyst

PS5 Expected to Ship 6 Million Units by March 2021 According to Japanese Analyst

Following Sony's financial results announcement for the past quarter, analyst Hideki Yasuda from Osaka-based firm Ace Research Institute weighed in.

twinfinite.net

By
Giuseppe Nelva
Published on February 17, 2020


Following Sony’s announcement of its financial results for the past quarter, analyst Hideki Yasuda from prominent Osaka-based firm Ace Research Institute posted his analysis about the performance of PS5.

Yasuda-san’s name is rather well-known in Japan due to his analysis and predictions focused on the gaming market.

According to him, both PS5 and PS4 should ship 6 million units during the next fiscal year, which will end on March 31, 2021.

Yasuda-san also mentions that supply and demand of components by DRAM is expected to be tight, but he doesn’t think that it’ll be a big problem.

However, since the slowdown of PS4 sales has become evident, expectations for the PS5’s launch are going to increase.

Of course, since the analysis was posted at the beginning of the Coronavirus outbreak, it remains to be seen if it’ll have any effect on parts supply.

We should also keep in mind that this is an analysis by an industry professional based on his experience, so it should be taken with the customary grain of salt.

During Sony’s financial conference call, CFO Kenichiro Yoshida mentioned that the company still didn’t have a firm grasp on the possible effects of the outbreak, even if he talked about it only in general terms and not specifically about the console market.

Incidentally, we also heard during the call that Sony is aiming for a smooth generational transition (in financial terms) due to the revenue provided by PlayStation Plus and other network services.

Day one pre order as soon as it's up. I can't remember the last time I didn't pre order a ps console and got it day one. I was happy with my Vita, my ps2/3/4, psvr, etccc

 

[Gamernyc78]

I'm ready for day one, to get it all set up, take some pics to share on social media, then have no games to play for a month

Bloodborne is the game tht keeps on giving

 

[Grinchy]

Wow, what a failure. So it'll be Switch at like 60M and PS5 at 6M? Switch will have 10 times more sales? What a disaster of a generation for Sony.

 

[MoreJRPG]

Very optimistic considering it’ll be lucky to hit a million in Japan by that time. Sony as a brand is dead there, Nintendo is king.

 

[mejin]

Very optimistic considering it’ll be lucky to hit a million in Japan by that time. Sony as a brand is dead there, Nintendo is king.

japan is only 8% of playstation install base, so they would need 500k at best. Easy peasy for the tiny island.

 

[Self High Five]

Very optimistic considering it’ll be lucky to hit a million in Japan by that time. Sony as a brand is dead there, Nintendo is king.

This isn't 1999. Throught its lifespan the PS4 has been outpacing the most successful home console in history while in 2017 the Japanese market nearly shrunk to 1/3 its size 10 years prior.

Nintendo is king of a niche market.

 

[SLB1904]

Exactly. PS4 managed to do 5 million by end of February 2014 at 399. If PS5 is 499, there is no way it will have the same sales curve. Xbox won't be as weak again. There were midgen refreshes. It's quite a thing to suggest it will be a repeat of PS4 when literally everything is different this time around.

And here i thought these numbers are low. Lol

 

[TLZ]

Wow, what a failure. So it'll be Switch at like 60M and PS5 at 6M? Switch will have 10 times more sales? What a disaster of a generation for Sony.

You just know you'll read that when the time comes.

 

[bitbydeath]

Exactly. PS4 managed to do 5 million by end of February 2014 at 399. If PS5 is 499, there is no way it will have the same sales curve. Xbox won't be as weak again. There were midgen refreshes. It's quite a thing to suggest it will be a repeat of PS4 when literally everything is different this time around.

PS4 was unavailable to buy in most places around the world from Dec-Mar and then had low shipments til at least June.

The question will be if Sony can stock it.