Support NeoGAF

[soundwave05]

Famitsu's "Most Wanted" Chart means diddly squat, many GCN titles have held top positions on that chart and very few have sold in the 500-600k range.

 

[Broshnat]

Famitsu's "Most Wanted" Chart means diddly squat, many GCN titles have held top positions on that chart and very few have sold in the 500-600k range.

Well, let's look at some GC sales in Japan. It's not as weak over there as people seem to think:

1 Smash Bros Melee 1320k
2 Mario Party 4 920k
3 Zelda: Wind Waker 890k
4 Super Mario Sunshine 880k
5 Mario Kart: Double Dash 870k
6 Mario Party 5 740k
7 Pokemon Colosseum 710k
8 Animal Crossing 680k
9 Pikmin 550k
10 Pikmin 2 540k
11 Mario Party 6 530k
12 Paper Mario 2 470k
13 Donkey Konga 465k
14 Naruto 2 455k
15 Biohazard 0 450k
16 Luigi's Mansion 450k
17 Kirby's Air Ride 445k
18 Made In Wario GC 440k
19 Mario Tennis GC 400k
20 Naruto 3 370k

is 700-800k really that crazy an estimate?

 

[SolidSnakex]

What??

Shenmue did about 350k in Japan, 200 in it's first week.

If RE4 could do 500k+ in week 1, that would be some feat...

I can see it having some decent legs though.

I said Shenmue 2, not Shenmue. Shenmue 2 was #1 on Famitsu's list when it was finnaly released and it performed like I said. That list isn't anything to judge how a game will sell on. A game that's not even on that list can come out and sell 100's of thousands, while a game on there can sell less than that game that wasn't on there.

 

[Broshnat]

I said Shenmue 2, not Shenmue. Shenmue 2 was #1 on Famitsu's list when it was finnaly released and it performed like I said. That list isn't anything to judge how a game will sell on. A game that's not even on that list can come out and sell 100's of thousands, while a game on there can sell less than that game that wasn't on there.

Agreed. But RE has a history of multi-million sales in Japan:

Resident Evil PS                      1.11m
Resident Evil Directors Cut PS  0.50m
Resident Evil 2 PS                   2.03m
Resident Evil Dual Shock PS     0.25m
Resident Evil 2 Dual Shock PS  0.15m
Resident Evil 3:Nemesis PS      1.55m
Resident Evil: Code Ver DC      0.47m
Resident Evil: Code Ver X PS2  0.34m
Resident Evil: REmake GC        0.36m
Resident Evil Zero GC              0.45m

[B]Total 8.21m[/B]

 

[Broshnat]

North America: 700k
Japan: 500K
Europe: 500K

Broshnat, your DMC number is wrong. It sold over a million in the U.S. 650K in Japan.

Including Greatest Hits maybe. As I said- for some reason on Capcoms site, they count the original sales and GH as two different entities I think.

 

[jarrod]

Including Greatest Hits maybe. As I said- for some reason on Capcoms site, they count the original sales and GH as two different entities I think.

It's true Capcom counts Greatest Hits, Players Choice, The Best, PSone Books, Platinum Hits and any other budget rerelease as a seperate SKU.

 

[Broshnat]

It's true Capcom counts Greatest Hits, Players Choice, The Best, PSone Books, Platinum Hits and any other budget rerelease as a seperate SKU.

Yup. Which is a bit silly in a way, especially as they never mention them in financial reports etc, you have no way of knowing how they did.

 

[Endymion]

My guess on lifetime sales:

1.2 million in the US
500k in Japan
300k in Europe

Never tried guessing on sales. I'm a newbe here

 

[Broshnat]

My guess on lifetime sales:

1.2 million in the US
500k in Japan
300k in Europe

Never tried guessing on sales. I'm a newbe here

It's not that tough!!
Just look at existing sales for refence, decide how optomistic you are, then have a guess

 

[MAZYORA]

Will see what I can do:

-Resident Evil Code: Veronica (DC)

470k Japan
500k USA
170k Others

1.14m total


-Resident Evil Code: Veronica X (PS2)

340k Japan
580k USA
400k Others

1.32m total


-Resident Evil Outbreak (PS2)

470k Japan
530k USA
290k Others

1.29m total


-Resident Evil Outbreak: File #2 (PS2)

230k Japan

-Onimusha: Warlords (PS2)

1.10m Japan
570k USA
350k Others

2.02m total


-Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny (PS2)

1.10m Japan
550k USA
340k Others

1.99m total


-Onimusha 3: Demon Siege (PS2)
700k Japan
290k USA
300k Europe

1.29m total


-Devil May Cry 2 (PS2)

500k Japan
540k USA
460k Others

1.50m total


-Dino Crisis 3 (Xbox)

30k Japan
60k USA
20k Others

0.11m total


-Clock Tower 3 (PS2)

150k Japan
100k USA
50k Others

0.30m total

All can be found on www.capcom.co.jp financial info pages (usually in Japanese), with the odd estimation / extrapolation just to tidy things up.
Note, PS2 numbers don't include Greatest Hits for some reason I don't think.

You forgot Genma Onimusha for Xbox!

 

[Broshnat]

You forgot Genma Onimusha for Xbox!

See Dino Crisis 3

 

[Endymion]

It's not that tough!!
Just look at existing sales for refence, decide how optomistic you are, then have a guess

Well it's just a guess (besides, my total is a whooping 2 million. Quite a feat, if you ask me).

Resident Evil is the kind of game that can do strong in the US. Plus, it has the advantage of being the first version to ship with the heavy bonus of the English language, so it receives boost from imports. But in Japan? Only Nintendo games can sell there. I think it's a very "closed" system for japanese users. Also, no one is importing from there since the american release is out first. I can't see it going over half a million copies. In Europe (where I live) I perceive the GC as a dead system with a not-so-good reputation among casuals as far as value for their money goes. With the announcement of the PS2 version coming (and the consequent big buzz on best selling magazines such as PSM etc.), ps2-only users will just wait for it. My guess is that 90% of total sales from the game will come from GC-lovers and hardcore multiplatform users only. Very few people will buy a GC for Resident Evil there. Imho of course.
Also, I'm strongly convinced that if RE4 would have come out for ps2 in the 2001-2002 timeframe, it would have now exceeded the 5 million mark easily. It was THE game ps2 users wanted back then.

 

[Broshnat]

Well it's just a guess (besides, my total is a whooping 2 million, quite a feat, I'd say).

Resident Evil is the kind of game that can do strong in the US. Plus, it has the advantage of being the first version to ship with the heavy bonus of the English language, so it receives boost from imports. But in Japan? Only Nintendo games can sell there. I think it's a very "closed" system for japanese users. Also, no one is importing from there since the american release is out first. I can't see it going over half a million copies. In Europe (where I live) I perceive the GC as a dead system with a not-so-good reputation among casuals as far as value for thier money goes. With the announcement of the PS2 version coming, my guess is that 90% of total sales from the game will come from GC-lovers and hardcore multiplatform users only. Very few people will buy a GC for Resident Evil there. Imho of course.
Also, I'm strongly convinced that if RE4 would have come out for ps2 in the 2001-2002 timeframe, it would have now exceeded the 5 million mark easily. It was THE game ps2 users wanted back then.

Some good points.

In Japan, Naruto 2 and 3 will have sold 450k a piece+ by the time they finish. Now I know this is the exception and not the rule, and supports the argument that the GC is good as a multi-player machine, but RE0 did 450k as well. I think anyone who doesn't think RE4 will clear half a million is wrong.

RE4 will certainly be big in the US. Should sell well out of the gate, and see some good budget sales as well. Come on, Soul Calibur has done 750k (and it released multi-platform) RE4 should surely pass a million in the US!

Europe will be the unknown. On an interesting side-note though, I was listening to a random program on BBC Radio 1 (big national radio station here in the UK) who were doing a random "things to look forward to in 2005 show" and on the games front they mentioned GT4, MGS3 (no brainers- both huge in the UK) and RE4 and the "latest in the epic line of Zelda games". No XB mentions. Now I knew this doesn't mean THAT much, but interesting that a random UK radio show would mention those 4- obviously RE4 and Zelda are getting a lot of hype, even in the UK.

 

[Endymion]

Some good points.

In Japan, Naruto 2 and 3 will have sold 450k a piece+ by the time they finish. Now I know this is the exception and not the rule, and supports the argument that the GC is good as a multi-player machine, but RE0 did 450k as well. I think anyone who doesn't think RE4 will clear half a million is wrong.

RE4 will certainly be big in the US. Should sell well out of the gate, and see some good budget sales as well. Come on, Soul Calibur has done 750k (and it released multi-platform) RE4 should surely pass a million in the US!

Europe will be the unknown. On an interesting side-note though, I was listening to a random program on BBC Radio 1 (big national radio station here in the UK) who were doing a random "things to look forward to in 2005 show" and on the games front they mentioned GT4, MGS3 (no brainers- both huge in the UK) and RE4 and the "latest in the epic line of Zelda games". No XB mentions. Now I knew this doesn't mean THAT much, but interesting that a random UK radio show would mention those 4- obviously RE4 and Zelda are getting a lot of hype, even in the UK.

You bring on the table good points too. That's why it's funny trying to guess numbers. One just has to choose one among different likely scenarios

 

[Shig]

Might as well join in:

RE4 GC:
JPN: 500k
US: 550k
Other: 200k

RE4 PS2:
JPN: 350k
US: 600k
Other: 230k

This is of course assuming the PS2 port is pretty competent and not a hugely noticable step down. RE4 is really in line with the PS2 audience's tastes.

 

[Broshnat]

Might as well join in:

RE4 GC:
JPN: 500k
US: 550k
Other: 200k

RE4 PS2:
JPN: 350k
US: 600k
Other: 230k

This is of course assuming the PS2 port is pretty competent and not a hugely noticable step down. RE4 is really in line with the PS2 audience's tastes.

Wow, they really are low!!

 

[Aika'svyse]

435,000 copies

final prediction

 

[duderon]

435,000 copies

final prediction

Are you going to bomb one of Capcom's packaging factories?

 

[909er]

Ouch. Should've been a PS2 title.

Would being on the PS2 fixed it's asstacular ness?

 

[AniHawk]

Well, let's look at some GC sales in Japan. It's not as weak over there as people seem to think:

1 Smash Bros Melee 1320k
2 Mario Party 4 920k
3 Zelda: Wind Waker 890k
4 Super Mario Sunshine 880k
5 Mario Kart: Double Dash 870k
6 Mario Party 5 740k
7 Pokemon Colosseum 710k
8 Animal Crossing 680k
9 Pikmin 550k
10 Pikmin 2 540k
11 Mario Party 6 530k
12 Paper Mario 2 470k
13 Donkey Konga 465k
14 Naruto 2 455k
15 Biohazard 0 450k
16 Luigi's Mansion 450k
17 Kirby's Air Ride 445k
18 Made In Wario GC 440k
19 Mario Tennis GC 400k
20 Naruto 3 370k

is 700-800k really that crazy an estimate?

Where do you get some of your numbers? Do you just add 100k to some of them? Or are these shipped?

 

[Whiz]

JPN: 600k
US: 900k
Other: 400k

1.9 m

 

[Broshnat]

Where do you get some of your numbers? Do you just add 100k to some of them? Or are these shipped?

Shipped. In other words, actual numbers and not Famitsu / Dengeki / Media Create estimates.

 

[Broshnat]

Ahhh.. interesting. I wasn't aware that Radiata Stories was released at the same time as RE4 in Japan- which game do people think will win out on that first weekend?

300k for Radiata has gotta be a pretty safe bet I'd have thought, can RE4 do more?

 

[BobbyRobby]

JPN: 600k
US: 1000k
RoW: 350k

 

[Broshnat]

Oh no!!

Bad news people- very early first day sales are in for Japan-

Radiata Stories 120k (50%)
Another Centuries Episode 100k (70%)
Biohazard 4 90k (60%)
Digital Devil Saga 25k (30%)
Catch, Touch Yoshi 20k (15%)

These are very early so a guide only, but not looking great

 

[SantaC]

Oh no!!

Bad news people- very early first day sales are in for Japan-

Radiata Stories 120k (50%)
Another Centuries Episode 100k (70%)
Biohazard 4 90k (60%)
Digital Devil Saga 25k (30%)
Catch, Touch Yoshi 20k (15%)

These are very early so a guide only, but not looking great

wasn't this for the 26th though?

 

[Broshnat]

Nope. This is for the 27th.

VERY early as I say, but still should give a good guide.

 

[SantaC]

Nope. This is for the 27th.

VERY early as I say, but still should give a good guide.

what do you mean with very early? These are not complete numbers from the first day? Or do you mean it's early to judge anything from the 1st day?

 

[SolidSnakex]

Looks like Banpresto better be gearing up some new ACE shipments.

 

[Unison]

I am not sure whether I should be more stressed about RE4 or Yoshi... :-/

 

[bitwise]

maybe RE4 sales will pick up :<

 

[Solid]

90? Haha I predicted 220k! :lol

 

[Broshnat]

90? Haha I predicted 220k! :lol

Indeed. It is early- the same source quoted MGS3 had done 270k on it's first day which ended up at 350k and led to 500k first week, but still.

By the same logic, we can expect less than 200k week 1, maybe 55k for Yoshi, and around 200k for the other two big games as well.

RE Zero did 130k on day 1. I hope the source is estimating far too low, but I can't see it somehow!

*Sigh*

 

[Soulbrighter]

I think 60% of shipment isn't bad, is it?

 

[Meier]

Well with so many stores breaking RE4 street date by up to 3 days, wouldn't that have an impact on the first day sales or would pre-release sales be lumped in to these? I'm surprised CAPCOM only shipped 165k or so.

 

[SantaC]

It's the work of the PS2 RE4 version. The japanese are ready to wait it seems...

 

[Broshnat]

Maybe a bit, it would have done 5-6k yesterday max though. Not gonna make an enormous difference.

I'd wait until some more confirmation / more accurate numbers before making too much of a judgement, but early signs point to a pretty poor performance.

 

[bitwise]

It's the work of the PS2 RE4 version. The japanese are ready to wait it seems...

yeah, agreed. or else, they aren't interested in the changes from the traditional RE formula

 

[BuckRobotron]

Bah, this thing deserves to sell. I don't give a hoot how well GC does ultimately, but I want RE4 the game to succeed relative to whatever platform it appears on.

 

[SolidSnakex]

It's the work of the PS2 RE4 version. The japanese are ready to wait it seems...

Well ToS PS2 outsold the GC version and that wasn't even announced at the time of the GC release. So it makes sense that somewould wait for the PS2 version.

 

[Mama Smurf]

Isn't there something in another thread about these numbers being from the day before release and are only there because some retailers broke the street date (for RE4 and Yoshi)?

 

[bitwise]

Isn't there something in another thread about these numbers being from the day before release and are only there because some retailers broke the street date (for RE4 and Yoshi)?

different numbers.

 

[SantaC]

Isn't there something in another thread about these numbers being from the day before release and are only there because some retailers broke the street date (for RE4 and Yoshi)?

yup but broshnat said these were numbers from the 27th.

 

[Broshnat]

Isn't there something in another thread about these numbers being from the day before release and are only there because some retailers broke the street date (for RE4 and Yoshi)?

No, that's different.

The daily rankings for the 27th haven't been released, but someone always releases VERY early numbers on the day of new releases- probably taken from a small number of stores and estimated from that.

It's a ballpark figure only, but usually within 50% of the actual.

Link: http://bbs1.parks.jp/13/yosou/bbs.cgi?Action=Res&Mode=Tree&Base=9997&Fx=1

Babelfished:

Only katakana. * Main several expectation digestibility of title expectation *

Radiata Stories 120k (50%)
Another Centuries Episode 100k (70%)
Biohazard 4 90k (60%)
Digital Devil Saga 25k (30%)
Catch, Touch Yoshi 20k (15%)

Radiata Stories by degrees book numerically.

Some being overabundant, don't you think? it increases. The sudden &#12387;&#36796; it is the &#12387; it is the place, the &#12532; &#12353; it is quickly? Digestibility of the ace is high very. Reservation benefit darkening, it is also, however probably will be, squeezing arrival, the item the pattern where the store which has been cut off is many. Biohazard 4 perhaps about only half "of 0" is shipment. It was squeezed, comparatively, digestibility saying high very, that is not reason it seems. It is possible rather and to being appealing regrettable. As for many series users being the PS2 edition waiting? As for Yoshi the movement like the Mali pas advance. &#12450;&#12496;&#12481;&#12517;&#12490; 2, &#12487;&#12473;&#12532;&#12449;&#12452; was buried.

 

[Mama Smurf]

Oh, okay.

I wonder how early releases affect things. I know in the book publishing world, early release sales don't count and can really screw authors (if you get the number 1 spot your book gets discounts at stores or something). The second part isn't trye for gaming, but the fact that it can screw chart positions might be.

 

[SantaC]

I think I should stop predicting sales numbers on Nintendo consoles. I always end up being disappointed. Next time I'll think I go insanly low with the Zelda sales prediction.

 

[duderon]

Everyone that doesn't buy RE4 needs to die.

 

[radioheadrule83]

Everyone that doesn't buy RE4 needs to die.

I concur with the dude!

 

[Broshnat]

I think I should stop predicting sales numbers on Nintendo consoles. I always end up being disappointed. Next time I'll think I go insanly low with the Zelda sales prediction.

Snap

Zelda will sell 5 copies!

 

[SantaC]

Snap

Zelda will sell 5 copies!

:lol