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[Gary Whitta]

I think it will beat expectations - which seem to be around $75m - but that seems high. The ticket prices for IMAX and 3D screens will likely out weight the running time, but I can't imagine it gets that high, logistically I don't think it's even possible. I can see it topping $100m easily, though.

But it's all about the legs. How Avatar fares against Sherlock Holmes the next week will say more about it's total gross than the opening weekend.

Dark Knight did $158m across 4300 screens without the 3D premium so in a best case scenario Avatar could be in the same ballpark but yeah it's a real stretch.

Fuck it I'll play the game, put me down for $102m.

 

[Solo]

It's a bit generous to even call them armchair gurus, that average is ridiculous

Still seems about $10M-$15M too high, but its a lot more reasonable than $177M. Personally Im feeling ~$80M.

 

[rhino4evr]

Over at BOM, the "Derby", which is a game in which armchair box office gurus can predict weekend box office, the average estimate is at $93M, which seems a lot more reasonable.

http://boxofficemojo.com/derbygame/

93 still seems high to me.

Im going with $75

that's my final answer.

 

[PrivateWHudson]

I have been asking around people in the biz, people whose opinions are respected, and everyone is really unwilling to make opening weekend predictions on this one. They are all leaning toward it beating expectations however, perhaps spectacularly so.

I will however share the prediction from the one person I asked who was willing to go out on a limb and give a specific number. I want to make it clear that this prediction does not necessarily reflect my own thoughts or opinions and I do not endorse it, I am lining up with all the people who are shrugging their shoulders and admitting that they have no fucking idea how this moving is going to perform.

But here's the number.

$177m.

As optimist as I am about box office numbers for Avatar, I find that outrageous. Long legs and word of mouth will ultimately score the big bucks. I don't see how it could have that kind of opening weekend.

edit...I'm in for $146M opening weekend. (domestic)

 

[Karma Kramer]

I'm thinking 110M opening

 

[D23]

can't wait to see this tomorrow night

 

[Zeliard]

I'm thinking 110M opening

If it hits 115 it'll have beaten the bug.

 

[Defcon]

$82m opening weekend.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Dark Knight did $158m across 4300 screens without the 3D premium so in a best case scenario Avatar could be in the same ballpark but yeah it's a real stretch.

Fuck it I'll play the game, put me down for $102m.

Hmmm!

Put me down for $115m opening weekend, including the midnight sales.

A site I respect a lot has a prediction of $75m, but I don't think he's correctly taking into accound the IMAX and 3D screen premiums.

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm

 

[rhino4evr]

Dark Knight did $158m across 4300 screens without the 3D premium so in a best case scenario Avatar could be in the same ballpark but yeah it's a real stretch.

Fuck it I'll play the game, put me down for $102m.

That is true..but Dark Knight did have Imax...which was awesome by the way..

 

[duderon]

Some of these guys are insanely accurate. I predict whatever this guy is predicting...

http://boxofficemojo.com/derbygame/derbyuserhist.htm?userid=141751

 

[Zeliard]

Hmmm!

Put me down for $115m opening weekend, including the midnight sales.

I'll go with that. Die, Spidey.

And Avatar is only playing on 178 IMAX screens (I assume those are the legit ones)? How many IMAX screens are there in the U.S.? No wonder it's impossible to find a real IMAX anywhere close.

 

[syllogism]

Some of these guys are insanely accurate. I predict whatever this guy is predicting...

http://boxofficemojo.com/derbygame/derbyuserhist.htm?userid=141751

It's a lot harder to predict opening week results though as those stats show

 

[Solo]

I'll go with that. Die, Spidey.

Is this Spidey hate or are people still running with that fairly tired Entourage bit?

 

[TAJ]

point all your blame at IMAX.

No. Different cuts for IMAX have happened before. Hell, the first studio feature to be screened in IMAX was also the first to be shortened for IMAX. (Apollo 13)

 

[Zeliard]

lol, I completely forgot about the Entourage thing. And I didn't bring it up due to hate, either. It was just the first movie that came to mind that had a huge opening weekend this decade.

 

[Gary Whitta]

If it hits 115 it'll have beaten the bug.

Cameron already did that.

 

[Solo]

lol, I completely forgot about the Entourage thing. And I didn't bring it up due to hate, either. It was just the first movie that came to mind that had a huge opening weekend this decade.

Oh :lol But it was beaten several times this decade (opening weekend)

Spider-Man set the record in 2002
Shrek 2 broke it in 2004
POTC2 broke it in 2006
S-M3 broke it in 2007
TDK broke it in 2008

Is this Spidey hate or are people still running with that fairly tired Entourage bit?

Cameron already did that.

:lol

 

[gdt]

We we get those numbers in....

That thread is going into the archives :lol .

I can't wait for that.

 

[Zeliard]

Oh :lol But it was beaten several times this decade (opening weekend)

Spider-Man set the record in 2002
Shrek 2 broke it in 2004
POTC2 broke it in 2006
S-M3 broke it in 2007
TDK broke it in 2008

I know, I wasn't necessarily saying that Spidey has the current record.

But it had a large opening weekend that I also think Avatar could possibly attain. I don't see it going much higher than what Spidey got, though I guess anything is possible, especially with a movie that so many are going to see in 3D and/or IMAX, adding to the ticket prices.

I just think $115 million is a solid, achievable mark. Could also very well be lower than $100 million. It really is very difficult to gauge.

 

[Solo]

Iron Man 2 will be the next movie to take a run at the opening weekend record.

 

[Gary Whitta]

Oh :lol But it was beaten several times this decade (opening weekend)

Spider-Man set the record in 2002
Shrek 2 broke it in 2004
POTC2 broke it in 2006
S-M3 broke it in 2007
TDK broke it in 2008




:lol

I just saw the episode where Aquaman opened so it was fresh in my mind, sorry I forgot what a short shelf-life jokes have on the internet

 

[Solo]

I just saw the episode where Aquaman opened so it was fresh in my mind, sorry I forgot what a short shelf-life jokes have on the internet

Its not the shelf life so much as it is the usage. GAF has beaten that reference to death.

 

[Dan]

I think some of you are really overestimating what a non-license non-sequel can do on an opening December weekend.

 

[Gary Whitta]

Here's a useful Google Map which shows where all the real IMAX theaters are and which ones are fake "IMAX Experience" bullshit.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=e...d=113621990356540393221.000469b6c5915161c3667

My gf tried to get me to see it at the local LieMax when we are visiting her family this Christmas, but I told her "It's a FAAAAAAAAAAKE!"

 

[Karma Kramer]

I think some of you are really overestimating what a non-license non-sequel can do on an opening December weekend.

Well for fun, whats your estimate... we'll know who was best at guessing in just a few days

 

[Bit-Bit]

James Cameron on Conan O Brian!!! http://www.hulu.com/watch/115809/the-tonight-show-with-conan-obrien-james-cameron-part-1#s-p1-sr-i1

 

[mckmas8808]

Well, I've only read them here, but people have been saying 70 million opening and 300 million overall gross.

WHOA! Wouldn't that be an all-time American record for a December movie?

 

[Zeliard]

I think some of you are really overestimating what a non-license non-sequel can do on an opening December weekend.

It's difficult to tell because there isn't really a precursor to this. No other movie, I think, has opened up in as many 3D screens (or, for that matter, is attracting such a number of people to go see it in 3D). 3D/IMAX is adding a premium to movie tickets that increases their individual prices by at least 50%, and it remains to be seen how much of an impact that has.

It's also unknown how much of an impact Titanic itself will have. While Avatar obviously isn't a sequel to it, it is Cameron's only major movie since Titanic, and Titanic is being heavily referenced in the advertising and general marketing.

 

[mckmas8808]

I have been asking around people in the biz, people whose opinions are respected, and everyone is really unwilling to make opening weekend predictions on this one. They are all leaning toward it beating expectations however, perhaps spectacularly so.

I will however share the prediction from the one person I asked who was willing to go out on a limb and give a specific number. I want to make it clear that this prediction does not necessarily reflect my own thoughts or opinions and I do not endorse it, I am lining up with all the people who are shrugging their shoulders and admitting that they have no fucking idea how this moving is going to perform.

But here's the number.

$177m.

Was he talking about world-wide or just in NA?

 

[Blader]

WHOA! Wouldn't that be an all-time American record for a December movie?

Didn't I Am Legend make 70 million two years ago?

 

[WyndhamPrice]

Didn't I Am Legend make 70 million two years ago?

ROTK did 72 and then I Am Legend beat it with 78.

 

[Future PhaZe]

So are the chances of most cities having at least one theater showing this in 3d slim? If that's the case I'll wait until whenever to see it...everything other than Camerons name looks very unappealing.

 

[Kaako]

I'm sorry, WHAAAAAAAT? Those numbers real? :O
This is going to be so so awesome.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

I think some of you are really overestimating what a non-license non-sequel can do on an opening December weekend.

I don't think that it's out of the question that it could be the biggest December opening, but anything over $100 million sounds like a huge overestimation. I'd say $80 million is a reasonable, if a bit high, estimation.

 

[Solo]

25 hours from my showing.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

25 hours from my showing.

8 hours from mine

 

[gdt]

Tomorrow at just before noon .

 

[Keylime]

25 hours from my showing.

8.5 hours until I'm getting eye fucked by 3D awesome!
6.5 hours until I'll be waiting in line.
6 hours until I leave my house to get to go to the theatre.
3 hours until I whack off to thoughts of Cameron and blue people.
2 hours until I put in my contacts instead of my glasses.
1.5 hours until I leave from work to go home.
.0001 hours until I hit submit.

 

[Dabookerman]

25 hours from my showing.

Holy shit dude, we watch it almost exactly same time. I think that makes us best mates.

 

[Google]

In all seriousness guys, how early should I be at the theatre for a 6.30PM iMax viewing on Saturday?

Will I be safe if I'm there at 5.30? I dont need the best seat, I just dont want to be at the front.

 

[Gary Whitta]

James Cameron on Conan O Brian!!! http://www.hulu.com/watch/115809/the-tonight-show-with-conan-obrien-james-cameron-part-1#s-p1-sr-i1

I love Cameron, when O'Brien trots out the familiar talking point about how he wrote this in 1995 but then had to wait for technology to catch up:

"Yeah, well I wasn't just watching Jeopardy waiting by the phone for technology to call and say 'we're ready now', I had to go out and develop it" :lol

 

[Bit-Bit]

8.5 hours until I'm getting eye fucked by 3D awesome!
6.5 hours until I'll be waiting in line.
6 hours until I leave my house to get to go to the theatre.
3 hours until I whack off to thoughts of Cameron and blue people.
2 hours until I put in my contacts instead of my glasses.
1.5 hours until I leave from work to go home.
.0001 hours until I hit submit.

High five for Eastern Time Zone!

 

[Zeliard]

25 hours from my showing.

I like your running countdown amidst your feigning disinterest.

 

[Veidt]

25 hours from my showing.

23 hours for me.

 

[Solo]

I like your running countdown amidst your feigning disinterest.

Ive never feigned disinterest for Avatar! I only do that for anything Batman/Christopher Nolan related, for my own amusement.

:lol

 

[Evolved1]

Ive never feigned disinterest for Avatar! I only do that for anything Batman/Christopher Nolan related, for my own amusement.

:lol

looking forward to your impressions. usually agree with you.

 

[ToxicAdam]

In all seriousness guys, how early should I be at the theatre for a 6.30PM iMax viewing on Saturday?

Will I be safe if I'm there at 5.30? I dont need the best seat, I just dont want to be at the front.

Well, I'm only showing up 45 minutes early tomorrow night. I will report in this thread how that worked out for me.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

how early will AMC let you take your seats?

 

[atomsk]

i'll try and see the noon showing tomorrow

but if there's a line, i'll wait a week.