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[CuteFaceJay]

fuck this is the real recession indicator

We been in one for a good few years now, They just don't want to say anything to make it official in fear it'll freak everyone out like last time. they gonna try and drag this one out as long as possible.

 

[MrAlwaysRight]

You're sort of correct P pepeno but LLM's have no intelligence, it's all prediction.

LLM's can reason about what letters are likely in tokens based on training, but they still don't have direct character-level perception. they get better at these tasks through training that specifically addresses the limitation, not because they achieved some meta-awareness that bypasses it.

Character-level models do exist and have been tried, they're not purely hypothetical. They just haven't proven worth the computational tradeoff for general-purpose language tasks, but they do excel in specific areas like spelling correction or code.

 

[StereoVsn]

This isn't what they've announced. They've decided to bail from their own DIY business - shut down Crucial brand. That's all they've said.
I'm still quite certain that this is press induced panic more than anything substantial.
Those who like to talk about "AI bubble" should try looking at DRAM pricing changes and apply the same logic there.

We do know though that all three RAM manufacturers signed some long term contracts with hyperscalers and AI companies which is going to constrain supply at least through 2026 and likely 2027.

Hell, OpenAI reserved 40% capacity from SK Hynix and Samsung.

 

[StereoVsn]

Yes. And so the Chinese won't buy from Samsung et al.

China isn't going full retard with circular finance and pure desperation like the American firms are. Also if anyone knows how to flood a market it's them.

They don't manufacture enough and they don't have enough equipment for newest memory nodes.

And again, China is large. While they don't have some of the stupidity going on with Hyperscalers build outs, they are pushing as much as they can themselves.

You just don't read about it since they don't announce shit as much. Anyways, we shall see but I have some strong doubts you will see Chinese RAM flood the market.

 

[PlayStaytion]

Yes. This will cause more people to buy used therefore killing the planet a bit slower and possibly teaching people important lessons about the not needing best and latest. MacBook M1 Max is half the price of a new regular M5, while often outperforming it significantly in benchmarks.

People will actually ask the validity behind the memory allocation on Windows, compared to Linux, there's no clear evidence that you actually needed all the gigabytes from your ram to justify what you see on the screen.

 

[Hudo]

The thing about this test and test like those is that it uses loophole in how LLM's work. LLM's work on basis of tokens aka bits of words not single letters. So stuff like Strawberry might be divided into Stra - wbe - rry. Moreover LLM doesn't see tokens as words like "Stra" but a number so it would be something like 24522 - 232111 - 43332. The amount of tokens is preset and it is called vocabulary.

The point is that it's an issue with underlying architecture not with LLM intelligence itself.
Models with per letter tokens should solve that without an issue or just higher intelligence LLMs that became aware of their own underlying architecture.

The reason why we use tokens instead of letters is because tokens are much cheaper to run performance wise. For the same reason why for example japanese kanji characters can represent whole concepts in one sign rather than writing multiple words or sentences to describe it.
For sure we will have per letter LLM's. Doing so this now would trade too much performance and size.

I know. It's still funny tho.

 

[xrnzaaas]

What are the chances this pushes the next console launches out by a year or more? Anyone think that Holiday '27 assumption is going to slip to '28?

It definitely will delay next gen by at least a year, unless something will happen in the meantime to stabilize the situation (more or less). Even if you consider Sony's strong position (with no Xbox competition and Nintendo playing by their own rules) launching a 1000€+ console would simply result in people sticking with the old hardware.

It's going to be similar with the smartphone market, more people will discover that they can use their current phone for like 5 years and there's no good reason to upgrade once every 2 years.

 

[Hudo]

They don't manufacture enough and they don't have enough equipment for newest memory nodes.

And again, China is large. While they don't have some of the stupidity going on with Hyperscalers build outs, they are pushing as much as they can themselves.

You just don't read about it since they don't announce shit as much. Anyways, we shall see but I have some strong doubts you will see Chinese RAM flood the market.

It's enough for me for Chinese RAM to flood the Chinese market. That already would be a big btfo to Samsung et al. If they can flood the rest of the world as well, that would be a bonus (a big bonus).

 

[StereoVsn]

It's enough for me for Chinese RAM to flood the Chinese market. That already would be a big btfo to Samsung et al. If they can flood the rest of the world as well, that would be a bonus (a big bonus).

They can't really do that for newer nodes from my understanding. DDR4 is possible but if we are talking about DDR5, GDDR6 and above, it's not likely that they can manufacture enough to address local need.

 

[Hudo]

They can't really do that for newer nodes from my understanding. DDR4 is possible but if we are talking about DDR5, GDDR6 and above, it's not likely that they can manufacture enough to address local need.

I think that is only a matter of time. And I also expect them to be able to build manufacturing capacity quite quickly. But we'll see what happens.

 

[StereoVsn]

I think that is only a matter of time. And I also expect them to be able to build manufacturing capacity quite quickly. But we'll see what happens.

No, they don't have the equipment to manufacture higher nodes. It's under sanctions. They can try to get around that similar to what they are doing with 7nm nodes but failure rate on those is tremendous so if not under gov subsidies nobody would be doing that.

They could try the same thing with RAM but this would all be directed at their internal needs.

And nobody should be celebrating CCP's advances for anything. China is a great country, but CCP … not so much. Biggest "consumer" of AI in China is CCP between internal security (censorship and surveillance apparatus) and military.

 

[dragonyeuw]

The issue as I see it and I could and probably am totally off-base, there is far too little oversight during this transition to A.I. If a watchdog group like the FTC and other similar branches in other countries can challenge Microsoft buying out ABK, speaking to the fundamental changes it could bring to the gaming industry, why isn't there( unless I'm missing it) the same energy in overseeing what these tech overlords are doing with A.I, which is paradigm shifting for life in general? Why isn't the buying up of all the resources that are used for everyday devices not being better regulated, instead of allowing these companies to just consume it all, causing supply/demand issues and inevitable massive price spikes. And its just like 'oh well, it is what it is' with this shit?!

Again I could be totally wrong, but everyone sees the inevitability to all of this and what it worse is the total lack of control of everyday people in how this is playing out( which I suppose you can say has always been the case, but you'd think by now we'd have *some* level of evolution in terms of how we manage our lives). But nope. Go play your PS5, stare at your iphone screen for hours a day and shut the fuck up. We're all well-neutered, indoctrinated zombies.

 

[Hudo]

No, they don't have the equipment to manufacture higher nodes. It's under sanctions. They can try to get around that similar to what they are doing with 7nm nodes but failure rate on those is tremendous so if not under gov subsidies nobody would be doing that.

They could try the same thing with RAM but this would all be directed at their internal needs.

And nobody should be celebrating CCP's advances for anything. China is a great country, but CCP … not so much. Biggest "consumer" of AI in China is CCP between internal security (censorship and surveillance apparatus) and military.

China is getting around sanctions by other means. The most "popular" one being that its companies have subsidiaries (that aren't official subsidiaries) in other countries that aren't sanction, e.g. in south-east asia. That's why you see Nvidia and other stuff still getting into China. What sanctions in this case are doing is making China working harder to get "independent". And I bet they have other, more efficient and clever, ways that I don't know of.

And I am not a fan of China, but I am also not a fan of the USA. I am a fan of competition and a market that actually works. The USA needs foreign competition in these industries. What happens when one country (and/or one company) has a world-wide monopoly on specific technologies can be witnessed now. That's at least my point of view.

 

[Felessan]

No, they don't have the equipment to manufacture higher nodes. It's under sanctions. They can try to get around that similar to what they are doing with 7nm nodes but failure rate on those is tremendous so if not under gov subsidies nobody would be doing that.

DDR5 uses 12-17nm process and China has manufacturing for it - CXMT produces around 50-100k wafers per month and reached 5% of market share in 2024.

And nobody should be celebrating CCP's advances for anything. China is a great country, but CCP … not so much. Biggest "consumer" of AI in China is CCP between internal security (censorship and surveillance apparatus) and military.

Why not? This fear-mongering and xenophobe are way overblown.

US Govt is also "not so much", as is basically any great country rulership now or at any point of the history. Great empires dont rule by everyone liking them.

 

[Mr Reasonable]

Maybe letting a couple of manufacturers being resposnsible of producing hardware for the entire planet wasn't such a good idea after all.
Especially when talking about a commodity that keeps getting more and more in demand as the time goes.

Perhaps we could connect this line of thinking to consider the effect of single massive corporations taking over entire industries.

Is it time to cancel Amazon prime, perhaps?

 

[Draugoth]

Blow all AI Data Centers and give my affordable RAM back, you filthy animals.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

We been in one for a good few years now, They just don't want to say anything to make it official in fear it'll freak everyone out like last time. they gonna try and drag this one out as long as possible.

Fake it until you make it*

*"make it" in this scenario refers to "full on global economic depression"

It definitely will delay next gen by at least a year, unless something will happen in the meantime to stabilize the situation (more or less). Even if you consider Sony's strong position (with no Xbox competition and Nintendo playing by their own rules) launching a 1000€+ console would simply result in people sticking with the old hardware.

It's going to be similar with the smartphone market, more people will discover that they can use their current phone for like 5 years and there's no good reason to upgrade once every 2 years.

Yeah, Sony is in a weird spot with next gen. All of the games up until 2030 were most definitely planned as cross-gen anyway, so which avenue do they go down? Do they drop a $1000+ console in 2027/8 and risk damage to the brand due to the price tag, or do they just wait until 2030 to release a more reasonably priced console. All of the games will still release and be on PS5 anyway.


On a different note. The only way out of all of this mess is government intervention. I imagine "national security" will be used as an excuse to strong arm these companies to cut the bullshit out and its not even a stretch to use that excuse. National security is full on aligned with the AI race.

 

[Fabieter]

It's going to be similar with the smartphone market, more people will discover that they can use their current phone for like 5 years and there's no good reason to upgrade once every 2 years.

People still do that? Samsung and Apple have long ass software support nowadays. Whos upgrading every 2 years and for what?

 

[dragonyeuw]

Yeah, Sony is in a weird spot with next gen. All of the games up until 2030 were most definitely planned as cross-gen anyway, so which avenue do they go down? Do they drop a $1000+ console in 2027/8 and risk damage to the brand due to the price tag, or do they just wait until 2030 to release a more reasonably priced console. All of the games will still release and be on PS5 anyway.

Yep, the old paradigm of just releasing the next system every 5-7 years along with whatever technolgical advancements is a thing of the past, I'd say the post Covid world has changed that even before this sprint into A.I. Fundamentally, especially in the AAA space, we've settled into some tried and true mechanics, genres and gameplay types. 'More power' just isn't that much of a selling point anymore if its just more of the time but with a shiner coat of paint.

Even the generational patterns in how different groups engage with the medium is shifting. I'm 48 and as someone who has played games since the Atari/Colecovison era, I'm reasonably certain I'm done with consoles. I have a PS5 that just sits there, and a Switch 1 for its entire 8 year run. I have zero interest in PS6, the next Xbox or the Switch 2. Obviously anecdotally but I have to imagine there's a not insignificant number of older gamers who are going to transition away from the boundaries of these console manufacturers.

I game more than ever but its on my laptop and Legion Go for like, 90% of my gaming time nowadays. I have a hard time seeing the upcoming younger Gen Z and Alpha groups carrying the same mantle we did for the past 30-40 years, they do and will have their own interaction with the industry, the games they play on the devices they play them out. Hell last night I was playing Minecraft with my 7 year old nephew on his iPad. And he has a Switch 1 and Xbox series S, he just stopped giving a shit very fast about those kinds of devices.

 

[darrylgorn]

The competition in the free market will work this all out in no time, you'll see!

 

[Sanepar]

If other companies don't step to supply Memories, nand we will be fucked. Our only Hope is China to get the consumer branch. This would fuck big7 plan to make everything on cloud and subs. But our only Hope now is that.

More probable scenario is the end of local hw and cloud sub mandatory next decade.

I can see NVIDIA enforcing that by stoping to produce new gpus.

If Microsoft fuck windows we will have Steam os, but the real problem now is local hw.

 

[Ev1L AuRoN]

I'll be in the AM4 platform for a while. 32gb of ram is fine. I just need to buy the 5700X3D.