Support NeoGAF

[Lime]

Gives us insight into what governments and companies need to do in the comming years (meaning right fucking now) based on reacing the 2 degrees Paris accords in 2015.

2017-2020: All countries would prepare for the herculean task ahead by laying vital policy groundwork. Like: scrapping the $500 billion per year in global fossil fuel subsidies. Zeroing out investments in any new coal plants, even in countries like India and Indonesia. All major nations commit to going carbon-neutral by 2050 and put in place policies — like carbon pricing or clean electricity standards — that point down that path. “By 2020,” the paper adds, “all cities and major corporations in the industrialized world should have decarbonization strategies in place.”

2020-2030: Now the hard stuff begins! In this decade, carbon pricing would expand to cover most aspects of the global economy, averaging around $50 per ton (far higher than seen almost anywhere today) and rising. Aggressive energy efficiency programs ramp up. Coal power is phased out in rich countries by the end of the decade and is declining sharply elsewhere. Leading cities like Copenhagen are going totally fossil fuel free. Wealthy countries no longer sell new combustion engine cars by 2030, and transportation gets widely electrified, with many short-haul flights replaced by rail.

In addition, spending on clean energy research increases by “an order of magnitude” this decade, with a sustained focus on developing new batteries, drastically reducing the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and perfecting low-carbon processes for producing steel and concrete, plus improving smart grids, greener aircraft systems, and sustainable urbanization techniques.

Meanwhile, efforts to start pulling carbon dioxide out of the air start this decade. That means reforesting degraded land and deploying technologies such as direct-air capture or bioenergy with CCS to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere. By 2030, we’d need to be removing 100 to 500 megatons of CO2 each year and have a sense of how to scale up.

2030-2040: By this decade, hopefully, we’re reaping the fruits of major technological advances in clean energy. Leading countries like Denmark and Sweden should now have completely carbon-free grids and have electrified virtually all of their transport, heating, and industry. Cars with internal combustion engines “will have become rare on roads worldwide.” (Let that sink in.) Aircraft will be almost entirely powered by carbon-neutral fuels, say, biofuels or hydrogen. New building construction will be largely carbon-neutral, by using emissions-free methods for steel and concrete or through other techniques. And “radical new energy generation solutions will enter the market.”

Meanwhile, we’d need to be sucking about 1 to 2 gigatons of CO2 from the air each year, with a heavy R&D effort on expanding that further.

2040-2050: By the early 2040s, major European countries are close to carbon-neutral, and the rest of the world is moving toward that goal by the end of the decade. Electricity grids are nearly entirely carbon-free: “Natural gas still provides some back up energy, but CCS ensures its carbon footprint is limited. Modular nuclear reactors may contribute to the energy mix in some places.” Lower-income countries are still using some fossil fuels, and the world is still emitting a small bit of CO2 in 2050 (about one-eighth the amount of today), but work continues on eventually phasing that out.

Finally, by 2050, we’d need to be removing more than 5 gigatons of CO2 per year from the atmosphere. It’s possible this is simply impractical — if we tried to do that all by burning biomass for energy and sequestering the resulting carbon (a “negative emissions” process), we might well run into serious land constraints that hinder agriculture. If, in the 2020s, we realize this will be the case, then we’ll have to revamp the road map to cut CO2 emissions from energy and industry even faster.

Read the rest of the article here along with links for further reading: http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals

 

[rekameohs]

Forgot one step

2017-2021: Everything was coal

 

[capitalCORN]

So we all have to move mountains. Pity about Trump.

 

[Ethelwulf]

Hope everyone follow.

Spoiler

nobody will do shit

 

[Drazgul]

Right so if this doesn't work out... what else do ya got?

 

[TBiddy]

Seems more like a wish-list than a detailed roadmap to me. But that might just be me.

 

[Maedre]

The funny thing is, this whole Projekt could be the biggest job producing motor in the history of mankind. Energy is key and massive renewable energy is the way to widespread wealth.

 

[BocoDragon]

Right so if this doesn't work out... what else do ya got?

If we can befriend Imperator Furiosa, we can steal Immortan Joe's war rig and make way for the green place.

 

[capitalCORN]

The funny thing is, this whole Projekt could be the biggest job producing motor in the history of mankind. Energy is key and massive renewable energy is the way to widespread wealth.

Bu-bu-bu-but old money!

 

[Keasar]

The industrialized world have to put some effort into it?

We're all going to die!

 

[Arjayes]

I think it's kind of sad how if this happens I won't be here.

 

[G.ZZZ]

There's an easier way bro.

Nuclear winter, kill off 90% of humanity. Ez game.

 

[Lime]

Seems more like a wish-list than a detailed roadmap to me. But that might just be me.

You can read the published scientific article if you want details.

And a roadmap is a map of future actions needed to fulfill a certain objective - in this case the Paris accords. So of course it's dealing with "wishes".

 

[SolidusDave]

*reads roadmap*
*thinks of current governments and people's lifestyle*
*blinks*

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE

 

[Amalthea]

Hope everyone follow.

Spoiler

nobody will do shit

And then everybody will be like

Spoiler

"Why didn't we see this coming? Why didn't scientists warn us?"

 

[FantasticMrFoxdie]

Your detailed roadmap means nothing when humanity has gone full Apple Maps

 

[Poyunch]

Read it and my only thought was, "Man, this isn't happening."

 

[Irishmantis]

What is this Chinese hokey pokey stuff?

 

[takriel]

I really, really, really want to live in this alternate universe

 

[SolidusDave]

If we can befriend Imperator Furiosa, we can steal Immortan Joe's war rig and make way for the green place.

Im a bit upset that I won't be in my prime by the time we really have to fight in a dystopian world.

At best I can be the old guy measuring the oil in the tanker from Waterworld.

 

[akira28]

can't we just fight and kill each other instead? being ecologically responsible is haaarrrd

 

[BocoDragon]

So we all have to move mountains. Pity about Trump.

Hope everyone follow.

Spoiler

nobody will do shit

Seems more like a wish-list than a detailed roadmap to me. But that might just be me.

The industrialized world have to put some effort into it?

We're all going to die!

*reads roadmap*
*thinks of current governments and people's lifestyle*
*blinks*

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE

Your detailed roadmap means nothing when humanity has gone full Apple Maps

Read it and my only thought was, "Man, this isn't happening."

What is this Chinese hokey pokey stuff?

I really, really, really want to live in this alternate universe

The fact that we all have this immediate impression is telling

Institutionally, we are a fucked species. We all know how we could adapt to our situation. We have brilliant planners and designers who could help us adapt to this impending calamity. We're not dumb. But our power structures won't allow us to pivot.

Maybe it's time we grow to realize that our earth and our species is being held hostage by our rigid power structures.

I'm not suggesting a revolution on this humble forum. But some kind of revolution is the only thing that might break our false constraints on how we're allowed to adapt to this real problem.

 

[Lime]

can't we just fight and kill each other instead? being ecologically responsible is haaarrrd

Don't worry, we'll definitely start fighting and killing each other once food, resources, and living spaces become scarce.

 

[kaizoku]

Irony is the people who run the world are the fossil fuel people no? So reducing their own money maker isn't gonna fly.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

We need to increase the pressure on our government representatives. Also we need to sell this as a new and exciting job sector with opportunities galore.

 

[Micael]

Yeah I'm thinking us bringing a skynet online is far more likely than what is being described there.
The only part that seems minimally realistic here is the 2030-2040 car part, and mostly because it is talking about cars not vehicles, and I can definitely see cars getting replaced quickly by electric ones, the advent of self driving cars along with the very significant technological leap that is electric cars will almost assuredly ensure a fast transition with cars.

The rest though yeah good luck with that, even the examples they give like Sweden isn't exactly a role model for other nations, yes they have a really big amount of renewable energy, but a very large % of that energy comes from hydro which isn't something that is viable for all countries, nor something you can just expand upon as needed, Denmark in that regard is a lot better since although they have a lower % of energy produced by renewable (as far as I can tell) a large part of that comes from wind.

Then again I would be quite surprised if the energy issue was ever going to be solved by just hydro, wind and solar, the amount of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries that would needed to be built (all of which have an environmental impact too) to get developed countries close to fossil fuel independent would be absolutely staggering, let alone the amount necessary to elevate the other few billion people to the energy levels we have.
Nuclear fusion would help a whole lot in solving the energy part of the equation, but given the absolutely pathetic investment countries put into it we can't even know at this moment if such technology could be reached in time, let alone build enough reactors world wide to even come close to solving the issue.

 

[Davilmar]

I had a good time reading that timeline, imaging the world that I wish we could have lived in instead of the one we have now. As far as I can see, this possible timeline isn't happening anytime soon. At least not Step 1 by 2020, and the other steps might be partially accomplished. Shifting and changing fossil fuels that have largely funded economic growth and stability for still developing alternatives is difficult. A lot of jobs and economic security is based on those fossil fuels, so I don't expect any massive changes soon. Would be lovely to have a chance of a stable future and environment, but we humans had a good run.

 

[Chirotera]

Don't worry, we'll definitely start fighting and killing each other once food, resources, and living spaces become scarce.

Phew, you're right. I was worried for a second there.

 

[kiguel182]

Nobody will do anything and we are fucked. I just want to know if I'll live to see it or not at this point.

Not looking forward to it.

 

[Milly Osworth]

But our roadmap has idiots like Trump.

 

[HazySaiyan]

So what you're telling me is we're completely fucked? None of this will happen

 

[Xe4]

Nobody will do anything and we are fucked. I just want to know if I'll live to see it or not at this point.

Not looking forward to it.

Or you could take action now and do something about it instead of being a pessimist.

 

[paradise_circus]

Hope everyone follow.

Spoiler

nobody will do shit

Afaik, Northern European countries including the biggest carbon producer, Germany, are already ahead of their goals. Portugal and other countries are on pretty good trail too.

 

[Bedameister]

Nice list but not gonna happen. Humanity only learns the hard way. We need to get fucked first before anything happens.

 

[Maedre]

Bu-bu-bu-but old money!

Old money knows this and they are investing in renewable. Its so funny and sad at the same time i don't know if I should cry or laugh out loud.

If I were in charge I would demand energy autarky for every new build house or construction. Production processes aside. This is in range and would not be a big price bump for new constructions. I work in this field and it is very doable.
We need just more basic research for large scale edfects.

Countrys like Norway, Denmark and newzealand are showing how it goes. I know that this are small countries. This is the common point when someone from a bigger country joins the discussion. Those technologies are scalable.
Germany a country with 80 millions is looking in the right direction. New coal plants are not really on the way and the existing one are loosing ground.
China is also moving in this direction. They are already feeling the coal-plant problems. Massive wind farms and solar power plants are in the making and highly profitable.
This could be the one big chance for the USA to innovate. To show the world that America is great again. That they are a power beside the military. That they are self sufficient with major benefits for the nature of their beautiful country.

And every technology for this transformation is already here and Functional.
Oh the possibilities... but the People of the USA voted for Trump who wants to save the already unimportant, small and expensive coal industry. To tell it in trumps words: Sad!
Coal is dead.
Germany did this transformation already in the 80/90. The coal mining process was just getting to expensive.


I hope my little rant is readable and understandable.

 

[ReplacementPelican]

I hope we actually pull our fingers out and do this. Reading this 'roadmap' sounds beautiful, I'll be so proud if we actually manage to achieve this in my/our lifetime(s). A lot of the pushback seems to be from baby boomers so we either need to convince them or... well, wait a bit. Not to be horrible. I always feel horrible saying that but its progress and there are certain ages who don't care, understand or both.

 

[kiguel182]

Or you could take action now and do something about it instead of being a pessimist.

I'm not sure how much power you think I have but I assure you is not enough.

 

[Frankfurter]

On the one hand, I'm skeptical because we are definitely behind already. On the other hand, I'm a little optimistic actually. With the way costs of renewables have gone down, they are increasingly financially viable and we'll continue to see huge growth rates.

 

[FiraB]

Roadmap, I'd say that's a pipe dream.

 

[Mexen]

Great plot for a sci-fi novel.

 

[Nabbis]

On the one hand, I'm skeptical because we are definitely behind already. On the other hand, I'm a little optimistic actually. With the way costs of renewables have gone down, they are increasingly financially viable and we'll continue to see huge growth rates.

That's the only way this might happen. Pragmatically, no other motivator will work in a capitalistic system.

 

[Raitosaito]

Our SOS is a recently retired oil executive, so I can't ever imagine him telling other countries to tell oil to go fuck itself.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

The real roadmap entails that we will procrastinate until the last minute, talk about it in endless meetings, and hope for the best. Some of the wealthiest countries will be the main ones dragging their feet because we don't want to create 1st world problems.

 

[TakeItSlowDude]

Read this instead of a wishy washy and dumbed down Vox article.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Right so if this doesn't work out... what else do ya got?

Then i recommend building your own stash of usable soil, water, vegetable seeds and also investing in scuba lessons.

 

[Sölf]

Well, it was nice knowing you.

 

[Sleight of Jam]

There's an easier way bro.

Nuclear winter, kill off 90% of humanity. Ez game.

I vote this

 

[pastrami]

Silly scientists. I want you to fix the problem, not tell me what to do!

 

[nintendoman58]

There's an easier way bro.

Nuclear winter, kill off 90% of humanity. Ez game.

I can't believe how quick people are to jump to this.

Nobody will do anything and we are fucked. I just want to know if I'll live to see it or not at this point.

Not looking forward to it.

You don't know the damn future.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

Pfff who would listen to a bunch of smart people telling us what to do!