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[UbiSoftologist]

Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan Securities offers his preview of video game sales in September:

We expect NPD Funworld TRSTS U.S. retail video game console software sales data for the month of September (five-week period ending October 2, 2004) to be released on Monday, October 18, after the market close...

...After the traditionally slow summer months, sales typically begin to build in August and September heading into the holiday season, with monthly variations based on the quality and quantity of games released. We expect this trend to continue in 2004, and forecast sales of $400 million (up 25% vs. September 2003’s $319 million).

Comparable sales for the last three months were up following three consecutive months of year-over-year declines. We continue to be optimistic that strong holiday sales will allow the U.S. console software market to deliver 10% yearover- year growth (up from 5% in 2003). We note that year-to-date through August unit sales are up 6%, while ASPs have declined by only 1.7% (compared to our full-year forecast of a 6% decline). We expect ASPs to stay relatively flat over the remainder of the year, given the likelihood for strong sales of several full-priced blockbuster titles for the remainder of the year.

The U.S. hardware installed base is currently at 63 million current generation consoles (including the GBA) as of the end of August 2004 (up from 56 million at year end 2003) and we forecast growth to 77 million total consoles by the end of 2004. We expect console prices to remain stable for the balance of the year (current U.S. prices are Nintendo GameCube $99, Microsoft Xbox $149, and Sony PS2 $149), with the next round of cuts likely early next year. We expect some momentum in handhelds in September, as Nintendo recently cut the price of the GBA SP from $99 to $79. We also expect a strong unit contribution from Nintendo’s DS, which will be launched at $149 on November 21.

In September, we expect continued strong sales of Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PSX, GBA, PC) and Take-Two’s ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2, Xbox). The top September releases should be Nintendo’s Pokemon Fire Red and Leaf Green (GBA), Electronic Arts’ NBA Live 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC) and Burnout 3 Takedown (PS2, Xbox), Take-Two’s ESPN NBA 2K5 (PS2, Xbox), LucasArts’ Star Wars Battlefront (PS2, Xbox, PC), and Microsoft’s Fable (Xbox). Our analysis in the Funworld TRSTS data does not include PC games, but we believe that Electronic Arts’ The Sims 2 (PC) was also a top seller during the month. We note that there were seven games that sold over 100,000 units in August, and we expect 17 in September (compared to nine last year).

 

[UbiSoftologist]

The following are specific publisher comments by Mr Pachter:

On Activision:

Activision (ATVI—Buy and Focus List)

Releases during September: 9/14 Call of Duty: United Offensive Expansion (PC), 9/22 Rome Total War (PC), 9/22 XMen: Legends (PS2, Xbox, GC), 9/27 Shark Tale (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC).

We estimate that Activision generated approximately $21 million in sales for the month (compared with $21 million last month and $11 million last September). We expect sales were once again led by Spider-Man 2 which we believe sold 150,000 units combined (on top of the 1.6 million units sold since its launch in June). We expect that X-Men: Legends sold 100,000 units combined in its first month. We do not expect a significant contribution from Shark Tale until October, given relatively low awareness and limited time on the shelf before the end of the month. We also expect a modest contribution from Cabela’s Deer Hunt 2005, with a likely 70,000 units sold in its first month. We expect Shrek 2, Tony Hawk and other catalog games to sell well.

On Electronic Arts:

Electronic Arts (ERTS—Buy)

Releases during September: 9/8 Burnout 3 Takedown (PS2, Xbox), 9/14 The Sims 2 (PC), 9/20 NHL 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC), 9/20 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PC), 9/20 Def Jam Fight For NY (PS2, Xbox, GC), 9/28 NBA Live 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC).

We estimate that EA generated $130 million in sales for the month (compared with $141 million last month and $80 million last September). We expect sales to be led by Madden NFL 2005, which we estimate sold 650,000 units combined in its second month of release (on top of the 2.1 million sold last month and flat with last year’s level). We expect Burnout 3 Takedown to be the company’s top release for the month selling 400,000 units combined, while we believe that both NBA Live 2005 and Def Jam Fight for NY sold 250,000 units apiece in their first month. We also think that Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 sold well, with approximately 200,000 units sold through at retail. We expect to see continued strong sales of James Bond, Harry Potter, Need For Speed Underground, Lord of the Rings and Medal of Honor as well as from its catalog of sports games.

On Take-Two:

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO—Buy and Focus List)

Releases during September: 9/7 ESPN NHL 2K5 (PS2, Xbox), 9/8 Kohan II Kings of War (PC), 9/15 Vietcong Purple Haze (PS2, Xbox), 9/29 ESPN NBA 2K5 (PS2, Xbox).

We estimate that Take-Two generated $20 million in sales for the month (compared with $24 million last month and $11 million last September). We believe that sales were once again led by ESPN NFL 2K5 selling 400,000 units combined (on top of the 1.6 million units sold since its launch in July). We expect ESPN NBA 2K5 sold 100,000 units combined in its first days, with ESPN NHL 2K5 selling more modestly throughout the month. We believe that Red Dead Revolver, Grand Theft Auto, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm led catalog sales.

On THQ:

THQ (THQI—Hold)

Releases during September: 9/8 Finding Nemo Continuing Ad (GBA), 9/8 Fairly Odd Parents: Shadow Showdown (PS2, GC, PC, GBA), 9/13 Jimmy Neutron Attack of the Twonkies (PS2, GC, GBA), 9/20 Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War (PC), 9/21 Full Spectrum Warrior (PC).

We estimate that THQ generated $19 million in retail sales for the month (compared with $12 million last month and $25 million last September). We believe that sales were led WWE Day of Reckoning (which was released last month, but outside of the retail month) selling 150,000 units. We expect continued strong sales of MX Unleashed, WWE, Nickelodeon, and Finding Nemo titles. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA SP sales for the rest of the year. We estimate that THQ had 18 titles sell over 10,000 units during the month, compared to 16 titles last month and 21 titles last September.

 

[AirBrian]

We note that there were seven games that sold over 100,000 units in August, and we expect 17 in September (compared to nine last year).

17!?

 

[explodet]

Well, let's see - according to Wedbush Morgan, those titles would include:

Madden 2005
Burnout 3
NBA Live 2005
Def Jam FFNY
Tiger Woods 2005
Spider-Man 2
X-Men Legends
NFL2K5
NBA2K5
WWE Day of Reckoning

So that's 10 right there.

 

[Alcibiades]

Madden 2005 PS2
madden xbx
Burnout 3 xbx
burnoout 3 ps2
NBA Live 2005 xbx
nba live ps2
Def Jam FFNY xbx
def jam ps2
Tiger Woods 2005 ps2
NFL2K5 xbx
nfl 2k5 ps2
WWE Day of Reckoning
pokemon fire
pokemon leaf
pikmin 2
halo

-one more somwhere, maybe Spidey PS2 (probably not) or something I missed. I doubt Donkey Konga got that much exposure early on, but that's always a possibility...

 

[jarrod]

Madden 2005 PS2
madden xbx
Burnout 3 xbx
burnoout 3 ps2
NBA Live 2005 xbx
nba live ps2
Def Jam FFNY xbx
def jam ps2
Tiger Woods 2005 ps2
NFL2K5 xbx
nfl 2k5 ps2
WWE Day of Reckoning
pokemon fire
pokemon leaf
pikmin 2
halo

-one more somwhere, maybe Spidey PS2 (probably not) or something I missed. I doubt Donkey Konga got that much exposure early on, but that's always a possibility...

They count multiplatform games as one. Same with Pokemon.

 

[Alcibiades]

They count multiplatform games as one. Same with Pokemon.

they do in their previews for each company, but they count SKU's differently...

besides, those 16 I listed WILL sell over 100,000 each so there's no point in debating that...

 

[Blimblim]

^^ Fable...

 

[jarrod]

they do in their previews for each company, but they count SKU's differently...

No they don't.

besides, those 16 I listed WILL sell over 100,000 each so there's no point in debating that...

I've got doubts on some actually.

 

[Alcibiades]

^^ Fable...

doh!

that's the 17th one...


BTW, which do you have doubts on, Jarrod?

I'm not even being outlandish one bit, all are pretty conservatively going to get to at least 100,000 IMO...

 

[sonycowboy]

The official Sept 2004 prediction thread is up

http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=18718

 

[johnjohnson]

Madden 2005 PS2
madden xbx
Burnout 3 xbx
burnoout 3 ps2
NBA Live 2005 xbx
nba live ps2
Def Jam FFNY xbx
def jam ps2
Tiger Woods 2005 ps2
NFL2K5 xbx
nfl 2k5 ps2
WWE Day of Reckoning
pokemon fire
pokemon leaf
pikmin 2
halo

I think you should replace halo with Star Ocean 3.

 

[Alcibiades]

actually, I'll grant you that trade for Halo/Star Ocean 3, but I'm pretty sure Halo is aiming for another 100,000 like in the past few months, unless it's finally reached it's potential (unlikely)... if anything, one of the basketballs, tiger woods, or def jams I mentioned might not make the 100,000...

 

[sonycowboy]

actually, I'll grant you that trade for Halo/Star Ocean 3, but I'm pretty sure Halo is aiming for another 100,000 like in the past few months, unless it's finally reached it's potential (unlikely)... if anything, one of the basketballs, tiger woods, or def jams I mentioned might not make the 100,000...

You shouldn't take the preview as gospel. He's usually wayyy off with individual titles, but pretty good with overal publisher revenue. That is, 17 is not an official count. It could more or less.

 

[Alcibiades]

yeah, he's really wrong sometimes, I've followed all the bashing he took at videogamestockgroup for hyping the heck out of Manhunt (total sales disappointment) and he was off with MVP Baseball and other such titles..

Besides, if NPD doesn't count Wal-Mart or Toys 'R Us, I doubt this guy can even begin to grapple sales there, as they lean strongly Nintendo and he probably just calls stuff like Gamestop's and stuff...

 

[Speevy]

Poor Pikmin 2. Casuals suck.

 

[Datawhore]

yeah, he's really wrong sometimes, I've followed all the bashing he took at videogamestockgroup for hyping the heck out of Manhunt (total sales disappointment) and he was off with MVP Baseball and other such titles..

Besides, if NPD doesn't count Wal-Mart or Toys 'R Us, I doubt this guy can even begin to grapple sales there, as they lean strongly Nintendo and he probably just calls stuff like Gamestop's and stuff...

NPD has a model based on years of historical data that accounts for TRU and Wal-Mart, so technically, their results are included in the figures NPD reports. They have about 60% market coverage, and they report a grossed-up 100% figure that includes the missing retailers.

 

[sonycowboy]

yeah, he's really wrong sometimes, I've followed all the bashing he took at videogamestockgroup for hyping the heck out of Manhunt (total sales disappointment) and he was off with MVP Baseball and other such titles..

Besides, if NPD doesn't count Wal-Mart or Toys 'R Us, I doubt this guy can even begin to grapple sales there, as they lean strongly Nintendo and he probably just calls stuff like Gamestop's and stuff...

Oh, no you didn't!

You didn't just pull the Wal-Mart card, on a preview? Absolutely pathetic.

1) NPD doesn't simply take numbers and extrapolate them based on historical market share numbers. They do a pretty thourough analysis of platform / genres by corporation to get their numbers. Believe me, as much as it's possible, Wal-Mart is VERY well represented.

2) I'd venture to say that the Nintendo / Wal-Mart excuse is no longer valid. The Gamecube has become something of a hardcore system. Much, much moreso than the PS2, which is probably the absolute definition of the casuals system. And more than kiddies, I'd say Wal-Mart belongs to the casuals. Also, NPD does have a relationship with Wal-Mart outside of the TRSTS. That gives them excellent market research information into the age and overall demographics (as well as some sales numbers) that I'm sure they apply to the TRSTS.

 

[Alcibiades]

historial data?

you mean the days of N64 and PS-X...

it's silly to think that the same models would apply in the extremely volatile market up to this day month-after-month...

the way I see it, they should either get all numbers or list exactly which retailers they get their numbers from...

I hope Neilson goes in there and gives us even better data...

 

[DaCocoBrova]

^^

Not like a whole lot has changed in terms of what we play and when.

 

[border]

I love how people with no sales data from Wal-Mart claim that that is where Nintendo has the best sales (proportional to other systems)......how would you even know that?

Still funny to see that the Wal-cuse is alive and kicking. I really thought it was dead. With the Cube getting outsold 2:1 by other systems, I suppose desperate times call for desperate excuses =P

 

[sonycowboy]

historial data?

you mean the days of N64 and PS-X...

it's silly to think that the same models would apply in the extremely volatile market up to this day month-after-month...

the way I see it, they should either get all numbers or list exactly which retailers they get their numbers from...

I hope Neilson goes in there and gives us even better data...

They do list the retailers... to paying customers.

They also are constantly updating their models. It's not perfect, but it's really, really good. Good enough that all of the retailers, the software publishers, financial analysts, & the hardware manufacturers rely on it and pour over the data ALL the time.

But I'm sure your use of the data is much more complex and thus you need better numbers.

 

[Datawhore]

They also have this:

Wal*Mart In-Depth Reports

Wal*Mart In-Depth Reports enhance the NPD consumer online panel's comprehensive view of the toys marketplace. These Excel-based, quarterly reports let us deliver more in-depth analysis of Wal*Mart's position, particularly at the item level. Wal*Mart In-Depth Reports are available exclusively to NPD Funworld subscribers.

With Wal*Mart In-Depth Reports, you choose the views that matter most to your business: supercategory, category, license, corporate manufacturer, manufacturer, brand, total property or item-level. Measures include dollar and unit sales, share and distribution, average retail price, U.S. regions (total U.S., Northeast, South, West, Central) and household income levels. This level of detail, unmatched by other information sources, completes the picture so you can accurately assess the entire competitive landscape.

Wal*Mart In-Depth Reports provide the information necessary to:

Increase visibility into what is selling at Wal*Mart
Understand which manufacturers, licenses, brands and items are growing and declining at Wal*Mart
Compare Wal*Mart sales to the total toy industry
Track performance of items at Wal*Mart - both your items and competitors'
Gauge fair shares and opportunity gaps within Wal*Mart
Monitor price variance between Wal*Mart and the total toy industry
For more information, please contact ...

| Privacy Policy | Contact | Home |
© 2004. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved

...which they use to quarterly adjust their model. They know exactly what Wal-Mart is selling - they just can't report it alongside the other retailers.

 

[sonycowboy]

historial data?

you mean the days of N64 and PS-X...

it's silly to think that the same models would apply in the extremely volatile market up to this day month-after-month...

the way I see it, they should either get all numbers or list exactly which retailers they get their numbers from...

I hope Neilson goes in there and gives us even better data...

LOL. Can we get a few dozen PWNED pictures, NPD style?

 

[Alcibiades]

true, but there is 0 mention of videogames...

the toy market has been taken from Toys 'R Us and Kay-bee by Wal-Mart, and they are now covering that sector, but videogames is a separate matter, I don't think Wal-Mart would want to give up private info on how their business runs there...

 

[Datawhore]

true, but there is 0 mention of videogames...

the toy market has been taken from Toys 'R Us and Kay-bee by Wal-Mart, and they are now covering that sector, but videogames is a separate matter, I don't think Wal-Mart would want to give up private info on how their business runs there...

This quote is straight from the NPD Funworld website - these Wal-Mart reports include video games.

 

[Alcibiades]

This quote is straight from the NPD Funworld website - these Wal-Mart reports include video games.

funworld is not just videogames, it covers other markets...

I'm pretty sure if the in-depth report covered vidogames they would mention it..

 

[cvxfreak]

I love how people with no sales data from Wal-Mart claim that that is where Nintendo has the best sales (proportional to other systems)......how would you even know that?

Still funny to see that the Wal-cuse is alive and kicking. I really thought it was dead. With the Cube getting outsold 2:1 by other systems, I suppose desperate times call for desperate excuses =P

Nintendo said it themselves.

 

[border]

As far as I can recall, Nintendo has only said that Wal-Mart is their biggest customer (which makes sense given that they are the biggest retail chain in the country). They have not categorically stated that their products sell better than everyone else's there. I don't see much reason to think that they would...