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September NPD predicition thread

I

Izzy

Banned
Let's play the prediction game. Hardware, software, console, handheld - predict whatever you want.

This was a fine month for new handheld releases:

New DS releases said:
Tak: The Great Juju Challenge 20-Sep-2005
Frogger: Helmet Chaos 27-Sep-2005
Lost in Blue 27-Sep-2005
Lunar: Dragon Song 27-Sep-2005
Ultimate Spider-Man 27-Sep-2005
Click to expand...

New PSP releases said:
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06 26-Sep-2005
MediEvil: Resurrection 13-Sep-2005
Madden NFL 06 20-Sep-2005
Frogger: Helmet Chaos 29-Sep-2005
Burnout: Legends Racing 13-Sep-2005
Click to expand...

Also, this will be the second NPD month for:

Nintendogs: Chihuahua and Friends 22-Aug-2005
Nintendogs: Dachshund and Friends 22-Aug-2005
Nintendogs: Labrador and Friends 22-Aug-2005
Advance Wars: Dual Strike 22-Aug-2005
Click to expand...

And a big Xbox game:

Ninja Gaiden: Black 27-Sep-2005
Click to expand...


Oh, one more thing - September is a 5 week month for NPD.
 
Ninja Gaiden Black should have sold decently, but I don't think it is the big Xbox release. I bet Farcry Instincts outsold it. Probably Burnout too.

I would say 45K for the month.
 
I know it's extremely premature for this, but I want to see the October NPD, especially how today's releases (Romancing SaGa and Phoenix Wright) are going to sell. Both fantastic games who's series' future are on the line with sales of these games.
 
Link1110 said:
I know it's extremely premature for this, but I want to see the October NPD, especially how today's releases (Romancing SaGa and Phoenix Wright) are going to sell. Both fantastic games who's series' future are on the line with sales of these games.
Click to expand...

As much as I love SaGa (although I haven't played Romancing yet), I can't see it not bombing really, especially with the reviews. Phoenix will probably do alright though.
 
Mrbob said:
Ninja Gaiden Black should have sold decently, but I don't think it is the big Xbox release. I bet Farcry Instincts outsold it. Probably Burnout too.

I would say 45K for the month.
Click to expand...

I totally forgot FC: Instincts. It was released on 27th, wasn't it?
 
I predict:

Tak: The Great Juju Challenge 20-Sep-2005 - 16,000
Frogger: Helmet Chaos 27-Sep-2005 - 4,000
Lost in Blue 27-Sep-2005 - 9,000
Lunar: Dragon Song 27-Sep-2005 - 6,000
Ultimate Spider-Man 27-Sep-2005 -21,000



Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06 26-Sep-2005 -21,000
MediEvil: Resurrection 13-Sep-2005 -19,000
Madden NFL 06 20-Sep-2005 - 78,000
Frogger: Helmet Chaos 29-Sep-2005 - 2,500
Burnout: Legends Racing 13-Sep-2005 - 55,000
 
I'm hoping more people pick up Pac 'N Roll. Little fella deserves more [Though it'll sell truckloads when it goes to the bargin bin]
 
I was going to do this, but I was lazy.

The plot lines:
---------------------
1) DS vs PSP - Is this the month the DS takes the lead??
2) Nintendogs - Gaining steam??
3) PS2 - 250k last month, will it hit 300k (5 weeks vs 4) or is it slowing and time for the price cut?
4) Madden - month 2 sales? Madden PSP (smells bad)
5) GBA Micro
6) Some big names in the new releases NBA Live/2k6, Tiger Woods, Burnout, Mario SS Baseball, Ninja Gaiden: Black, X-men Legends, Spider-man Ultimate, Marvel Nemesis, Fable, a stable of DS releases.


Notable Releases
------------------------
Week 1 - WWE Day of Reckoning 2 (GCN), Mario Superstar Baseball (GCN), Nascar 06, Moto GP 3 (XBX), World Series of Poker,

Week 2 - Rainbow Six: Lockdown, Radiata Stories, NHL 2006, NHL 2k6

Week 3- Urban Reign, Medievil (PSP), Gripshift (PSP), Dynasty Warriors 5 (XBX), Burnout Revenge, Burnout Legends, Tak: The Great Juju, Mortal Kombat: Shoalin Monks, World Series of Poker (PSP)

Week 4- X-Men: Legends 2, Genji (PS2), Battalian Wars (GCN), Frantix (PSP), DK: King of Swing (GBA), We <3 Katamari, Tiger Woods, Ninja Gaiden Black, Marvel Nemesis: Rise of the Imperfects, Madden NFL 06 (PSP), Indigo Prophecy, Fable: Lost Chapters, Ultimate Spider-Man, GBA Micro

Week 5 - Tiger Woods (PSP), Trace Memory (DS), Suffering 2, NBA Live 06, NBA 2k6, Midway: Arcade 3, Lunar Dragon Song (DS), Lost in Blue (DS), Frogger, Far Cry: Instincts, DDR Extreme 2 (PS2), Capcom Classics, Top Spin 2 (PS2), Pokemon XD,
 
jamesinclair said:
I predict:


Madden NFL 06 20-Sep-2005 - 78,000
Burnout: Legends Racing 13-Sep-2005 - 55,000
Click to expand...

I'm most interested in seeing these results.

It's already been proven (by Midnight Club 3 PSP) that a game doesn't need good reviews or technical competence to sell well so Madden may be a huge seller. (Personally, I don't mind Madden off memory stick)

Burnout: Legends deserves high sales. It's popular AND technically sound.
 
Nintendogs performance should be of keen interest. It can very well be an indication of its strength going into the holidays.
 
jman2050 said:
Nintendogs performance should be of keen interest. It can very well be an indication of its strength going into the holidays.
Click to expand...

September sales RARELY give any indication as to what holiday sales will be. I expect a strong Nintendogs number, but it will be hard to say if it's launch numbers or continued strength. And what effect did the 2 week shortage have on the title?
 
Izzy said:
Agreed. WMS estimates 550k Madden copies sold for the whole month. (console + PSP + DS)
Click to expand...
How accurate have WMS been with their Madden predictions previously? Last years Madden sales were 470K, so unless it's fallen(unlikely with the lack of competition this year) looks like 80K is on the highest end for Madden psp. I'd guess if it is bad, it's partly due to the fact that Tiger Woods and NFL street launched with the psp just 6 months ago.
 
This past month up until even today.. DS sales at my gamestop have been monstrous.. They shipped us about 23 PSP's about mid september, we as of today have sold one in like 4 weeks (new psp) and have received 4 trade ins w/ 0 USED psp sales. Currenlty have 5 USED psps in stock.

For the DS we had about 8-9 used DS's beginning-mid september, today we have 1 and we have sold about 25 new DS's since. Because of our monstrous DS sales they actually sent us 10+ blue DS's (when our normal allocation is to have 3-4 in stock at all times)

I think this month will be ruled by the dogs, even when there were shortages each time a game was shipped it was instnatly sold and its still selling very well when stock is back. (we just go replenished again today)

Not to mention the Teal Nintendogs DS bundle already has more pre-orders then GTA: LCS for PSP in my store. wtf?
 
Mihail said:
Meh, you can never tell which store is representative of the average trend.
Click to expand...


Not saying my store is "the average trend" just reporting what I see, I live in a mainly prissy area where parents buy there kids/teenagers ANYTHING
 
PezRadar said:
This past month up until even today.. DS sales at my gamestop have been monstrous.. They shipped us about 23 PSP's about mid september, we as of today have sold one in like 4 weeks (new psp) and have received 4 trade ins w/ 0 USED psp sales. Currenlty have 5 USED psps in stock.

For the DS we had about 8-9 used DS's beginning-mid september, today we have 1 and we have sold about 25 new DS's since. Because of our monstrous DS sales they actually sent us 10+ blue DS's (when our normal allocation is to have 3-4 in stock at all times)

I think this month will be ruled by the dogs, even when there were shortages each time a game was shipped it was instnatly sold and its still selling very well when stock is back. (we just go replenished again today)

Not to mention the Teal Nintendogs DS bundle already has more pre-orders then GTA: LCS for PSP in my store. wtf?
Click to expand...

Who let the dogs out.
 
Well I probably won't be here until late Saturday to update the numbers (there's a good chance I'm skippin' school for Disneyland on Friday, and I have work until 9:00 on Saturday).

But here, yet again, are my half-assed predictions:

GBA/GBM: 240k
PS2: 210k
PSP: 205k (they started showing commercials again + Madden)
Xbox: 135k (winding down as 360 hype builds)
DS: 120k (Nintendogs and sales drop spike sales over August, WHILE MORE THAN DOUBLING SALES EARLIER IN THE YEAR)
GC: 70k (SSBM bundle helps a little bit)

Lost in Blue: 6,000
Lunar Dragon Song: More than it should, but for the sake of a prediction, 9,000
Trace Memory: 5,000
Burnout Legends: 83,000
Madden PSP: 100,000

Nintendogs (all versions): 135,000
Advance Wars Dual Strike: 43,000

Indigo Prophecy (Xbox): 23,000
Indigo Prophecy (PS2): 18,000

Battalion Wars: 21,000

We Heart Katamari: 33,000
 
AniHawk said:
Lost in Blue: 6,000
Lunar Dragon Song: More than it should, but for the sake of a prediction, 9,000
Click to expand...

Youre on!

(same numbers as Im guessing above)

I did forget Trace Memmory though. Im going with the Nintendo logo on the box and saying 14,000

And Batalion Wars...12,000

Geist 7,000

Katamari: 44,000
 
GBA/GBM: 235k
PS2: 270k
PSP: 225k
Xbox: 145k
DS: 150k
GC: 75k

Lost in Blue: 10k
Lunar Dragon Song: 8k
Trace Memory: 9k
Ultimate Spiderman DS: 19k
Burnout Legends: 62k
Madden PSP: 75k

Nintendogs (all versions): 210k :D
Advance Wars Dual Strike: 42k
 
DS - 162,000
Nintendogs - 260,000
Advance Wars - 55,000
Yugioh - 34,000
Ultimate Spiderman - 22,000

Total Software Sales for the DS will be around 550k - 650k. The spike in Hardware sales will increase the overall sales of the old games. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirby and Mario having big sales boost.

PSP - 198,000
Madden - 90,000
Burnout - 35,000

This was one of the months I saw the DS beating the PSP. But I don't think so. But the DS will have higher overall softwares sales as the PSP might sell 500k in software.

GCN - 74,000
Battalion Wars - 12,000
Mario Stadium Baseball - 90,000
WWE DOR2 - 65,000

PS2 - 305,000
Burnout - 70,000
Ultimate Spiderman - 110,000
X-men Legends 2 - 125,000

Xbox - 154,000
Burnout - 57,000
Xmen Legends 2 - 90,000
Ninja Gaiden Black - 45,000

GBA - 300,000
 
Lost in Blue: 4,000
Lunar: Dragon Song: 8,250
Ultimate Spider-Man: 7,500
Yu-Gi-Oh: 60,000
Trace Memory: 5,000

Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06: 30,000
MediEvil: Resurrection: 15,750
Madden NFL 06: 42,000
Burnout: Legends Racing: 75,000

Nintendogs: Total of 200,000
Advance Wars: Dual Strike: 30,000

Ninja Gaiden: Black: 50,000

Katamari: 40,000

Giest: 10,000
Mario Baseball: 75,000
WWE DoR 2: 55,000
 
PS2 300k
GBA SP/Micro 250k
PSP 170k
Xbox 170k
NDS 140k
GCN 80k

Top 15 Sales (minus GBA's which I suck at choosing, but are always in there)
-------------------------
1) Madden PS2
2) Nintendogs (collectively)
3) NBA Live 2006 PS2
4) Ultimate Spider-Man PS2
5) Madden Xbox
6) Ultimate Spider-Man Xbox
7) Burnout PS2
8) Burnout XBox
9) Mario Superstar Baseball
10) Tiger Woods PS2
11) Madden PSP
12) Rainbow Six: Lockdown Xbox
13) Far Cry: Instincts XBox
14) X-Men Legends 2 Xbox
15) Burnout Legends PSP

BTW, I'm probably missing something from the first weeks releases as Gamestop's "New Arrivals" listing only went back to right around that time.
 
Anybody else care to speculate on the DS vs PSP HW derby this month??

DS now had a full month of the price drop, new color, Nintendogs, and quite a few new releases. PSP had Madden & a few other releases.

Sales Age am cry. NPD <<<<< 360 interest :lol
 
DS - 180,000
Lost in Blue: 8,000
Lunar: Dragon Song: 3,000
Nintendogs: 280,000 (combined)
Advance Wars: Dual Strike: 34,000
Ultimate Spider-Man: 22,000
Yu-Gi-Oh: 50,000
Pac n Roll: 12,000
Trace Memory: 8,000

PSP - 190,000
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06: 35,000
MediEvil: Resurrection: 12,000
Madden NFL 06: 70,000
Burnout: Legends Racing: 55,000
 
I'm already thinking about how much gta:lcs will do and how much psp's it'll sell.

And me thinks it's gonna be teh muchos!
 
PS2 - 300K
Xbox - 150K
GC - 60K

DS - 175K
PSP - 160K
GBA - 200K
GB Micro - 50K

think the DS either outsold or at least matched the PSP last month
 
I think it will do MUCH worse than the original. Trying to recapture lightning in a bottle and all.
Click to expand...

You are probably right, but it is SUCH a great game. Not as unique as the first one, obviously, but much more to do and a ton of fun.

How much did the first one sell in it's first month and over-all SC?
 
btutterrow said:
You are probably right, but it is SUCH a great game. Not as unique as the first one, obviously, but much more to do and a ton of fun.

How much did the first one sell in it's first month and over-all SC?
Click to expand...

First Month: 19,114
LTD: 269,521
 
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