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[Eddie-Griffin]

https://skarredghost.com/2023/03/03/quest-20-million-mainstream/

Yesterday, a report by Alex Heath on The Verge reported that Quest has sold around 20M units. Since this is well beyond the 10M threshold we were all waiting for, does this mean that VR is getting mainstream? Well, things are not that straightforward in my opinion…

The magic 10M threshold​

Speaking at Oculus Connect 5, Mark Zuckerberg expressed this opinion of his about the path to make VR mainstream (thanks Road To VR for writing this down):

"The big question is what is it gonna take for it to be profitable for all developers to build these large efforts for VR? To get to that level, we think that we need about 10 million people on a given platform. That’s the threshold where the number of people using and buying VR content makes it sustainable and profitable for all kinds of developers. And once we get across this threshold, we think that the content and the ecosystem are just going to explode. Importantly, this threshold isn’t 10 million people across all different types of VR. Because if you build a game for Rift, it doesn’t necessarily work on Go or PlayStation VR. So we need 10 million people on [one] platform.
-MARK ZUCKERBERG"


After this speech, everyone in the VR community started waiting for the magical 10 M sold headsets threshold to be crossed by a single platform, because this would have meant that VR was becoming mainstream.

Quest sold 20M units​

The good news is that we are already much beyond that threshold. According to a report by the reliable Alex Heath, which stems from an internal presentation at Meta, Quest has sold already more than 20 M units. This value includes all Quest headsets: Quest 1, 2, and Pro. Quest 2 is the most successful of the three, and most probably it alone is well beyond the 10 M units sold at this point.

This seems to hint at the fact that now VR is already mainstream… or not?

VR isn’t mainstream… yet​

“Mainstream” may mean many different things. In this post I’m referring to widespread sales and usage across average consumers: Laptops are mainstream, 3D printers are not. So can we say that VR is mainstream?

Well, yes, and no, but mostly no. We can say “yes” because now almost everyone has awareness of what VR is: some people saw ads on the TV, others have tried a Gear VR in an exhibition, and others have a headset at home. Furthermore, VR devices are having good sales: the Quest 2 has sold more devices than the latest XBOX at a certain moment. We have continuous success stories of developers that now can sustain themselves by just doing VR games (think about BoneLab for instance).

But on the other side, we are all here now commenting that are entering an “autumn” of virtual reality: it is not a winter because the ecosystem is still alive (unlike in 2017), but for sure there is stagnation. VR headsets are selling ok, but are not entering much into the average consumer market, some VR developers are succeeding, but now projects are also being shut down (see what happened to Echo VR and Nerf Ultimate Championship), and all VR companies are doing a spending review.

But how is this possible? We are beyond Mark’s 10 M mark (pun intended), and “content and the ecosystem should just going to explode”… why aren’t we seeing explosions like in a Michael Bay movie?

Retention is key​

Sales are not even the most important number to look at. Retention is: the more people use a product every day/week, the more that product is relevant.

Quest is not even the first platform to cross the 20 M line. Do you remember what other VR headset did that? Yes, Google Cardboards. Those shitty things that people used for one day, and then burned with fire after having ruined their eyes with those cheap plastic lenses. They became very popular during the first wave of consumer VR, but they had a problem: no one was using them. People just tried them, had fun for maybe one day, then totally forgot about them. The user experience was horrible, the content was not there, so of course this was the only possible outcome. Oculus Go was killed for the same reason: not enough retention.

Quest seems to have the same problem: not at that big scale (it is much better than the previous units), but still at a relevant one. According to the report, Mark Rabkin, Meta’s VP of VR, said: “We need to be better at growth and retention and resurrection. We need to be better at social and actually make those things more reliable, more intuitive so people can count on it.”

Translated: we need more content, we need to be more user-friendly, and we need more retention. Because retention is key. It is much better to sell 4M units but have all the users every day using your product than to sell 20M and have low retention. Because with 4M loyal users you have a real market of people that keep paying on your ecosystem, with the 20M not-affectionate ones, you have just an initial sale and that’s it. Add to this equation the fact that Quest 2 is sold at loss and you understand how actually the sales of many headsets are even a problem for Meta: if it loses $100 per headset as someone hinted, 20 M sales equates to around $2B of losses across the years, which is not a good thing. Meta desperately NEEDS recurring users that buy content on its store to make its VR business sustainable.

While the Quest 2 has been a great step forward for VR in general (including for retention numbers), it is still not ready for the average Joe: the user interface is too confusing, the ecosystem is still too much gaming-oriented, the content is not enough and not for everyone, the social experiences are mostly uncanny, and so on. Let’s say that now VR is good for people that have at least a bit of technical skills, but still not for everyone.


There is another problem, also. The more Metea goes on, the more it attracts average people, and the less affectionate people will be. We VR enthusiasts are so passionate about VR that we would buy also the VR Potato 9000 headset if see a review of it made by Road To VR. But the average player maybe gets bored after a few days if he doesn’t see on the headsets the games he likes the most like FIFA or COD. Also while we VR passionate have time every week for VR, the average consumer has not a special place in the heart for VR, so the headset competes with other forms of entertainment like the PS5, or the mobile phone. And these are other platforms with more users, and where especially the player has already lots of friends in. In fact, Rabking also said, “the newer cohorts that are coming in—the people who bought it this last Christmas—they’re just not as into it [or engaged as] the ones who bought it early“.

Market distribution is key​

There are also other factors to take into count: the VR market is unevenly distributed. The idea of “if there are enough users, you surely have a friend with VR” is right, but is true only where the headsets have been successfully sold.

I don’t know the situation now, but until one year ago, when I asked a few devs for their stats, the VR market was still US-centric. This meant that like 50-70% of revenues for game developers came from a single country: the United States. This is because Meta is an American company, and it pushed its products at home, for instance showing a lot of TV ads. So this effect of having “a friend with VR” may hold true for the US, but it is not the same in many other countries. This uneven distribution also hurts the organic growth of the ecosystem.

The VR market is also very game-centric, so many people not into games are not enticed by these systems yet. It is a lot that we speak about having more different content on headsets, but after many years, gaming is still the main use: in fact, VR magazines’ reviews are still 90% about games. This way it is hard to enter the mainstream like laptops or mobile phones.

There's more in the link I was focusing on key highlights, but the article actually touches on many good points. Although one thing they are missing is consolidation though their segment on market distribution lightly sort of touches on that but not really because they are focusing on users over hardware. Pretty much there's no growth despite the sales (and lack of active users) because no one else was/is selling. PSVR2 we will have to wait for the numbers, some sources claim we will know tomorrow we'll see about that. But this during an era where Quest 2 is declining, that won't mean much even of it was over 500k in feb.

A key point made was about retention in regards to the Quest, and this goes for other headsets as well. The users are not engaging, that's why we rarely see software reports (even from Sony/Samsung during PSVR1/Gear when they were still given unit sales a lot of the time). People are buying the units, then returning them or letting them sit in a closet.

An example the article used was Google Cardboard, many outlets don't consider that real VR and usually place Gear VR at the top (or ignore mobilevr for some reason and put PSVR1 at the top) but technically overall, yes Google Cardboard was a massive hit. But it was flimsy even in rea-time, and people stopped using it's almost not even bare minimal VR after a week or so if that.

With Quest 2 you have a better product but what are people using it for? This is where you can see Zuckers biggest failure, all his social apps failed, including ones with gaming involved. Horizon Worlds being the biggest money sink, that was supposed to be one of the core ways to keep players coming back and improving retention of VR. It didn't work.

Beat Saber is the best selling game in VR, which officially hasn't sold 1/4th of the close to 20 million (Quest 1 and 2) headsets sold. Estimates place it over 5, which would put it at 1/4th, and as the article says, games are the primary driver of VR headset sales still. That's a pretty big difference, especially when Beat Saber is far and away from other software and it's that low.

The article brings up the second part to the puzzle, audiences. Something I've brought up that many people are very resistant to admitting is a problem,

the average consumer has not a special place in the heart for VR, so the headset competes with other forms of entertainment like the PS5, or the mobile phone. And these are other platforms with more users, and where especially the player has already lots of friends in. In fact, Rabking also said, “the newer cohorts that are coming in—the people who bought it this last Christmas—they’re just not as into it [or engaged as] the ones who bought it early“.

These demographics will are not going to run and grab a headset for Horizon Worlds, R8, or Pistol Whip. These need games that have more pull, AND they need software on TOP of games to also pull them in. Without both those parts there, it's going to be hard to have these users come back, or to even buy a headset as the wom spread against adoption.

China recently domestically sold 1 million VR headsets across numerous brands, with a higher social segment, and even some having connection to phone through apps for social, buying software, and other goodies (recent YVR2 thread touched on this) with several competitive players competing for marketshare with growth in nearly every category.

Now, Chinas market globally is miniscule still even with over 1 million headsets sold there at the consumer level, however, how it's being executed over there SHOULD be how it's done over here, Instead, there's not real growth, retention is bad, there's one main player in the VR space, and they basically control the market, we are seeing quest games and software helping other platforms. We don't see 5 headsets selling good numbers with their own good software attracting more serious investment into the VR market.

Another thing to consider is sustainability.

VR in many cases is a market with a lot of losses, some players like Tencent tried looking into entering and then noped out and canceled to avoid the lack of roi and the high risk for going all-in and being competitive. When the losses are occurring you have to make up for it somewhere. Usually software and accessories, perhaps other things like music or movie sales etc.

But when you sell hypothetically 7 million headsets and only 1 million are engaged and actively using it, you aren't getting enough profits from elsewhere to reduce or remove the red ink. 5 million Beat Saber, across 20 million Quest 1 and Quest 2 headsets, with estimated ~8 million Quest 2 sold in 2022, means nothing at all if Quest has always had only 10% of their sales be active in such a scenario.

We don't know how bad the actual retention problems are for Facebook, Pico, PSVR1, or Gear previously, but what we do know is that it doesn't take much to see the money emptying and reports of cutbacks and layoffs.

VR needs to solve the problem of retention plus getting users to spend more in the ecosystem for longer than a month or two. VR needs some amazing software to finally get it to take off. So far we haven't seen it yet. Will it happen from one of the 50,000 headsets releasing this year? Who knows, but VR won't go very far without that change.

 

[feynoob]

VR needs P, M, and other good shit.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

You continue this quest no pun intended against VR which continues to belabor the missed point here.

The platform isn't at 20 million for the Quest. Quest 2 games don't all work with Quest 1, so you're starting from scratch.

VR ironically needs cross-gen really badly for software sales, but the way these generations are evolving makes that really difficult. I think you might see some cross-gen with PSVR2 and PSVR3, which is going to ultimately in my mind have the largest sustained platform ecosystem.

The Quest 2 just came out in 2020 and yet the Quest 3 is coming out in 2023. The Quest 2 will probably have a lot of cross-gen support with Quest 3, but I think they're going to be hard-pressed to get people who bought Quest 2 within the last 3 years to buy Quest 3. Quest 2 is still really expensive, so it'll be interesting to see what level of support if any it gets once the Quest 3 releases or if it'll be immediately discontinued in favor of the newer model.

If the Quest 3 is just a Quest 2 with beefier specs but the same games, it's going to struggle to find a market.

There isn't enough incentive for a developer to put 100 million dollars into a VR game that isn't going to sell more than 5 million units, but there's more than enough incentive for a developer to create a VR mode for a 100 million dollar game. That's where the PS5 has the biggest advantage because games don't need to be solo VR titles. What we're seeing with RE8 and GT7 is the future of VR, this is going to be followed up by RE4.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

There isn't enough incentive for a developer to put 100 million dollars into a VR game that isn't going to sell more than 5 million units, but there's more than enough incentive for a developer to create a VR mode for a 100 million dollar game. That's where the PS5 has the biggest advantage because games don't need to be solo VR titles. What we're seeing with RE8 and GT7 is the future of VR, this is going to be followed up by RE4.

Thats where I think VR's biggest success will come from. Current $20 indie/demo games + big budget game's getting a VR mode. And hopefully that VR mode applies to as much of the game as possible compared to the standard gamepad/m/kb game. However, that game will be full priced too.

Anyone expecting big budget VR only games to come out will be disappointed. Ok, you got Half Life Alyx, and perhaps a few more(?). That's it in all the years of VR gaming so far.

So for any VR supporters, it's probably good to temper your expectations as that's all you might get any time soon.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Thats where I think VR's biggest success will come from. Current $20 indie/demo games + big budget game's getting a VR mode. And hopefully that VR mode applies to as much of the game as possible compared to the standard gamepad/m/kb game. However, that game will be full priced too.

Anyone expecting big budget VR only games to come out will be disappointed. Ok, you got Half Life Alyx, and perhaps a few more(?). That's it in all the years of VR gaming so far.

So for any VR supporters, it's probably good to temper your expectations as that's all you might get any time soon.

That's because Valve wanted to push the index and could absorb the cost of development. Most developers can't do that, but they can incorporate VR modes, and honestly, that will probably help PC VR as well.

 

[Ozriel]

The platform isn't at 20 million for the Quest. Quest 2 games don't all work with Quest 1, so you're starting from scratch.

It’s estimated that Quest 2 accounts for over 15 million of that number.

There isn't enough incentive for a developer to put 100 million dollars into a VR game that isn't going to sell more than 5 million units, but there's more than enough incentive for a developer to create a VR mode for a 100 million dollar game. That's where the PS5 has the biggest advantage because games don't need to be solo VR titles. What we're seeing with RE8 and GT7 is the future of VR, this is going to be followed up by RE4.

You don’t necessarily need a mega budget AAA title to have a system seller. Games like Beat Saber are AA in scope but drive a ton of VR sales.
While you make a good point about VR modes for AAA titles, it’s not too far off from what was done last gen with PSVR, and it was largely driven by Capcom + Sony first party. Similar to what you’re listing here.

It wasn’t a game changer then, so it’s not necessarily guaranteed to be a gamechanger this cycle.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

i agree with every single letter.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It’s estimated that Quest 2 accounts for over 15 million of that number.



You don’t necessarily need a mega budget AAA title to have a system seller. Games like Beat Saber are AA in scope but drive a ton of VR sales.
While you make a good point about VR modes for AAA titles, it’s not too far off from what was done last gen with PSVR, and it was largely driven by Capcom + Sony first party. Similar to what you’re listing here.

It wasn’t a game changer then, so it’s not necessarily guaranteed to be a gamechanger this cycle.

I doubt Quest 2 has 15 million units sold. Happy to see a credible source with that number.

As for not needing a AAA title to have a system seller. As mentioned above that beat saber barely sold 5 million units. It's not a system seller, which is kind of the point.

It'll be AAA experiences that drive people towards VR. The difference between PSVR and PSVR2 will be how those experiences are conveyed.

Everyone who has reviewed GT7 VR has said it is a game changer whereas no one said that for GT Sport.

I remember when fighting games went 3d for the first time and games like Virtua Fighter and Tekken breathed new life into fighting games. Same when racing when 3D and the beat em up largely died (though kept alive in some aspects by games like Dynasty Warriors).

VR has the ability to do the same for a few different genres. Games like GT7, Ace Combat, Steel Battalion, fishing games, band games, and horror games.

Reality it only takes a couple of big AAA games to really push the genre.

 

[Fess]

Yeah, it would be interesting to see concurrent user figures. For all we know it could be 20m sold headsets and 19.5m having it collecting dust. Do we have sales figures for any recently released game?

I feel like a parrot in all these VR threads but what VR needs is simply more high quality games and lighter and more comfortable headsets. We should not have to swap from mainly playing AAA games to mainly play indies and AA experimental titles just because we put a bulky thing on our heads. And nobody should feel like they need to stop playing because their face hurts or because they have glasses or a different headshape.

After seeing a Meta research lab video yesterday I have high hopes for the future on the hardware side. But software looks less promising from my point of view, I don’t know a single AAA VR title in development right now, seems like VR modes is as far as we go there or it’ll be too much of a financial risk.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Meta is obviously sinking billions into VR so one would hope it pays off for them, I don't think anyone else can afford to lose that kind of money.

Hopefully, we see psvr 2 do well after the initial burst of hype but Sony needs something major within the first year to drive that install base number. I think VR being in a closed system doesn't work this early on but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

Still holding out to see the quest 3 before I make a decision. For me Meta have managed to lock me in as I've been using the rift since DK days and I own software on the Meta store and steam so I'm kinda locked into Meta headsets so that I can play everything I own, but also benefit from being able to use it anywhere......

Hopefully, for me, quest 3 is as close to psvr2 as possible.

 

[Fess]

Meta is obviously sinking billions into VR so one would hope it pays off for them, I don't think anyone else can afford to lose that kind of money.

Hopefully, we see psvr 2 do well after the initial burst of hype but Sony needs something major within the first year to drive that install base number. I think VR being in a closed system doesn't work this early on but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

Still holding out to see the quest 3 before I make a decision. For me Meta have managed to lock me in as I've been using the rift since DK days and I own software on the Meta store and steam so I'm kinda locked into Meta headsets so that I can play everything I own, but also benefit from being able to use it anywhere......

Hopefully, for me, quest 3 is as close to psvr2 as possible.

Quest 3 seems like a step down from PSVR2 going by rumours. It’ll likely be lighter and more comfortable but no eye tracking makes it more like a mid gen refresh if I can use that term.

I already have my Quest 2 and I’m not jumping in anywhere until I see the big devs jumping in. I’m constantly complaining about how there are no big new games on Xbox and I’m not going to suddenly think smaller experimental titles and indies is enough because I wear a headset, especially not when there is no Gamepass solution to get me to try out more stuff without individual purchases.

 

[PeteBull]

Its very simple, all vr games sell badly, compared to non vr games, even top of the top bestsellers.
Proof here, for 2022 steam bestsellers even half-life alyx didnt make it to bronze (out of 4 ranks: platinum,gold, silver, bronze, where bronze is for 51-100th place).

Steam reveals the best-selling VR games for 2022

Just in time for the end of the year, Valve announces the most successful Steam titles. Which PC VR games made it into the top 100 in 2022?

mixed-news.com

As a vr game dev- if u know even best case scenario, if u are top of the top quality/sales for vr game, its still gonna bomb hard, sales wise- its obvious no1 wanna invest into it any srs development time nor funds, with exception of first party teams who simply get paid no matter the sales/profits to push the hardware.

 

[Fess]

Its very simple, all vr games sell badly, compared to non vr games, even top of the top bestsellers.
Proof here, for 2022 steam bestsellers even half-life alyx didnt make it to bronze (out of 4 ranks: platinum,gold, silver, bronze, where bronze is for 51-100th place).

Steam reveals the best-selling VR games for 2022

Just in time for the end of the year, Valve announces the most successful Steam titles. Which PC VR games made it into the top 100 in 2022?

mixed-news.com

As a vr game dev- if u know even best case scenario, if u are top of the top quality/sales for vr game, its still gonna bomb hard, sales wise- its obvious no1 wanna invest into it any srs development time nor funds, with exception of first party teams who simply get paid no matter the sales/profits to push the hardware.

Has any big dev made any serious attempts in VR though?

I know it’ll never happen but just as a thought experiment, imagine this;
TLOU Part 3, VR exclusive
Half-Life 3, VR exclusive
Diablo 4, VR exclusive
The Elder Scrolls VI, VR exclusive
Final Fantasy XVII, VR exclusive
Grand Theft Auto VI, VR exclusive
Assassin’s Creed Mirage, VR exclusive
Call of Duty, VR exclusive

I think the swap to VR would happen fast. But as long as we only get smaller experimental titles and late VR modes nothing changes.

 

[Bonsaibäumchen]

I doubt Quest 2 has 15 million units sold. Happy to see a credible source with that number.

As for not needing a AAA title to have a system seller. As mentioned above that beat saber barely sold 5 million units. It's not a system seller, which is kind of the point.

It'll be AAA experiences that drive people towards VR. The difference between PSVR and PSVR2 will be how those experiences are conveyed.

Everyone who has reviewed GT7 VR has said it is a game changer whereas no one said that for GT Sport.

I remember when fighting games went 3d for the first time and games like Virtua Fighter and Tekken breathed new life into fighting games. Same when racing when 3D and the beat em up largely died (though kept alive in some aspects by games like Dynasty Warriors).

VR has the ability to do the same for a few different genres. Games like GT7, Ace Combat, Steel Battalion, fishing games, band games, and horror games.

Reality it only takes a couple of big AAA games to really push the genre.

I would love something like DayZ, a survival game with crafting ( where you actually have to craft the items by moving the single parts with your controllers ) and fighting stuff.
Wouldn't even have to be MP at start. An SP experience with enough of a story or quests to work as quides/tutorials and some endgoal with an optional open end mode.

That would be a good VR experience to sell stuff ( even though to a niche audience ) games like Beat Saber and so on can be good as filler stuff in between greater games.
Also as mentioned several times there needs to be more then games.
Porn would obviously be a huge driver ( as is was often in history ) general Visual 3D content where you can watch some movie/shortfilms/tours/documentations in 3D and so on and so on. Sony VR Concert stuff is such an additional benefit to sell VR experience to people if they really release such content and don't overprice it.

 

[nkarafo]

Why does everything need to be mainstream in order to be a viable platform?

 

[RickMasters]

Ive tried VR a few times and I love it. But I think Headsets are still far too pricey for the average console gamer. I dont see most people spending 500 bucks on a headset after spending 500 bucks on a console. Might be more common in the PC space but on consoles I dont see VR becoming more mainstream until headsets are arounmd that $200 mark and that aint happening anytime soon. But the tech is cool and it really is the best way to play driving, flight games and vehicular games in general.

 

[RickMasters]

Why does everything need to be mainstream in order to be a viable platform?

When it comes to tech atleast....it needs to be mainstream to recoup the costs. these headsets are not cheap and I could only imagine the R&D costs. But then again, given the price its not for everybody.

 

[Ozriel]

I doubt Quest 2 has 15 million units sold. Happy to see a credible source with that number.

https://uploadvr.com/quest-2-sold-almost-15-million-idc/

IDC estimated 14.8 million units in June 2022. The article goes into more depth.

As for not needing a AAA title to have a system seller. As mentioned above that beat saber barely sold 5 million units. It's not a system seller, which is kind of the point.

Not sure why you’re looking at absolute numbers.
5 million sales out of an install base of 20 million is about as impactful as the likes of TLOU, GOW et al. Better attach rate than many other titles we casually call ‘system sellers’.
Quest 2 has been one of the hottest selling items Holiday 2021 and 2022. Beat Saber was a huge part of that. Definitely a system seller.

It'll be AAA experiences that drive people towards VR.

Beat Saber probably drove more people to VR than any other AAA game, with the possible exception of HL Alyx.

People like games that click. Same way Wii Sports - a decidedly AA experience - drove massive sales of Wii consoles.

 

[Maddux4164]

It’s like the old saying goes:

1 in 6 is a hand in your bush. So ya may as well eat grapes and everyone else is hungry!

 

[Fess]

Why does everything need to be mainstream in order to be a viable platform?

That’s when game devs see that they can recoup the cost if they start putting their biggest games on the platform.
The current scenario is more like what’s happening on Gamepass, lots of indies and experimental games, not so many big games. But devs don’t get a bag of money to put their games on the platform and users has to buy games individually. For me it’s not enough but I understand that some like it.

 

[PeteBull]

Has any big dev made any serious attempts in VR though?

I know it’ll never happen but just as a thought experiment, imagine this;
TLOU Part 3, VR exclusive
Half-Life 3, VR exclusive
Diablo 4, VR exclusive
The Elder Scrolls VI, VR exclusive
Final Fantasy XVII, VR exclusive
Grand Theft Auto VI, VR exclusive
Assassin’s Creed Mirage, VR exclusive
Call of Duty, VR exclusive

I think the swap to VR would happen fast. But as long as we only get smaller experimental titles and late VR modes nothing changes.

Exactly, so catch 22, same like with pubg and fortnite, till those 2 were succesfull no dev thought about battle royale genre, while when they smelled $$$ even juggernaut like call of duty bent the knee and made warzone, now even warzone 2.0

As a humongous diablo series fan(easily 5k+ hours total spent in the games from the series, last one d2r remaster i got well over 1k hours already and it launched 1,5year ago in october ;p) , i can tell u it would never work in vr, its in isometric view.

Some genres can get somewhat translated into vr tho, aka half-life alyx, altho u gotta ask true half-life fans if they wouldnt prefer proper half-life 3 instead (not a fan of the series, altho ofc i respect it and its high quality ).

Rest of the series i love like many others but didnt put k's of hours like i did into diablo, i did put definitely hundreds of hours( well into final fantasy i definitely put few k's of hours since ff10 alone i have spent over 500h and loved every part in the series except ff13 and online ones-so ff11 and ff14).

So overall as a fan(maybe even fanatic ) personally it would be terrible for me if those series got vr continuation, it would mean devs wasting their precious time and cash on games i wouldnt like/wouldnt play, same like they did with ff11 and ff14, luckily ff15 and now from the looks of it ff16 is coming back to form :>

 

[Mibu no ookami]

https://uploadvr.com/quest-2-sold-almost-15-million-idc/

IDC estimated 14.8 million units in June 2022. The article goes into more depth.



Not sure why you’re looking at absolute numbers.
5 million sales out of an install base of 20 million is about as impactful as the likes of TLOU, GOW et al. Better attach rate than many other titles we casually call ‘system sellers’.
Quest 2 has been one of the hottest selling items Holiday 2021 and 2022. Beat Saber was a huge part of that. Definitely a system seller.



Beat Saber probably drove more people to VR than any other AAA game, with the possible exception of HL Alyx.

People like games that click. Same way Wii Sports - a decidedly AA experience - drove massive sales of Wii consoles.

from your own link

A word of caution however: Oculus founder Palmer Luckey has been critical of analyst estimates of VR sales in the past. “What I can say is that analysts in general are terrible”, he wrote in 2019. However, Luckey’s criticism has mainly been aimed at IDC’s competitor, SuperData.

As for why I'm looking at absolute numbers... because they matter... If I sell 100 consoles and build a game that sells 25 copies, that doesn't carry the same weight as God of War... honestly ridiculous that you responded with that...

The Wii was a low cost console that non-gamers bought into. VR is the opposite of this aiming more toward hardcore gamers than casual gamers.

 

[SmokedMeat]

When it comes to tech atleast....it needs to be mainstream to recoup the costs. these headsets are not cheap and I could only imagine the R&D costs. But then again, given the price its not for everybody.

What do R&D costs have to do with you though?

VR isn’t mainstream, yet we have numerous VR headsets to pick from, and a well established library of VR games.

Unless companies like Meta and Sony decide to quit the market, it’s not going anywhere.

 

[Ozriel]

from your own link



As for why I'm looking at absolute numbers... because they matter... If I sell 100 consoles and build a game that sells 25 copies, that doesn't carry the same weight as God of War... honestly ridiculous that you responded with that...

The Wii was a low cost console that non-gamers bought into. VR is the opposite of this aiming more toward hardcore gamers than casual gamers.

IDC is MUCH more reliable and much bigger than SuperData ever was, and Palmer Luckey was complaining about numbers being too conservative, not overestimated.

In a conversation about the ability of a title to sell consoles, the Attach Rate is what you look for. Not just absolute sales. Days Gone sold more than 5 million copies…imagine if someone insists that Days Gone is more important or had more influence on hardware sales than Beat Saber.

5/20 = 25% attach rate. One in every 4 Quest owner bought Beat Saber. Such attach rate numbers are pretty rare in gaming.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

IDC is MUCH more reliable and much bigger than SuperData ever was, and Palmer Luckey was complaining about numbers being too conservative, not overestimated.

In a conversation about the ability of a title to sell consoles, the Attach Rate is what you look for. Not just absolute sales. Days Gone sold more than 5 million copies…imagine if someone insists that Days Gone is more important or had more influence on hardware sales than Beat Saber.

5/20 = 25% attach rate. One in every 4 Quest owner bought Beat Saber. Such attach rate numbers are pretty rare in gaming.

Days Gone selling the same or more copies than beat saber goes to show how Beat Saber ISN'T a system seller and that it is just part of a niche story. 5 million is nothing in the grand scheme of gaming.

 

[Miles708]

VR is wanted, or even known, only in the gaming niche internet circle.
No one outside of a gaming forum wants VR. No money fo dat, no time fo dat.

 

[CuteFaceJay]

What VR titles do you hear people talking about on a regular, Heck this is a games forum and I hardly see much talk about VR other than recent PSVR 2 and why VR isn't mainstream yet.

Plus I'll be honest I've moved to a big apartment and I've yet to have the urge to set up my index. it's just effort.

 

[Beechos]

Cause 99% of vr games are shovelware garbage. Most people played the 1-2 must play vr games wheres the followup and support.

 

[Fess]

As a humongous diablo series fan(easily 5k+ hours total spent in the games from the series, last one d2r remaster i got well over 1k hours already and it launched 1,5year ago in october ;p) , i can tell u it would never work in vr, its in isometric view.

Have you played Moss?
Isometric view, like looking down at a diorama.
Diablo like that would be glorious!
And so would a turn-based old school Final Fantasy, twin-stick Gears of War like The Ascent, Tomb Raider, Uncharted, etc.

 

[Fbh]

It's still pretty niche though.
The whole "it has sold nearly as much as Ps5" argument is flawed because Ps5 doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's the follow up to the 117 million selling and still active Ps4, it exists in a market alongside other successful consoles like the 122 million selling Switch and the ≈50 million Xbox One as well as the adjacent PC market with hundreds of millions of users.
Ps5 isn't niche because it's just one product in a very big and very succesful market. If at 20 million Ps5 wasn't just the best selling PlayStation but also the best selling gaming console of all time by a wide margin I'd consider console gaming to be pretty niche too.

Also yeah I think retention is an issue. It remind me a bit of the Wii in that everyone got one, played Wii sports with their grandma and then put it away to gather dust.

 

[RickMasters]

What do R&D costs have to do with you though?

VR isn’t mainstream, yet we have numerous VR headsets to pick from, and a well established library of VR games.

Unless companies like Meta and Sony decide to quit the market, it’s not going anywhere.

lower cost of entry= more people buy it. That not something thats going to change unless people suddenly start earning more money, that buying $500 is some kind of regular thing for gamers akin to buying pro pad, or a headset. id imagine they still cant make high performance VR headsets at a lower cost. and for most people the limit they will spend on a games accessory might not be higher than the the what some people would spend on a force-feedback wheel (around $300 but they are the hardcore racing guys...not every gamer is one of those) VR oc course has more application than a steering wheel but for joe casual...its a fancy gamimg accessory that costs as much as a console or a graphics card or more if you want a good one. atleast meta have those cheap ones they do and then there is those one that people stick their phones into...cheaper options but id imagine nowhere near PSVR2 or metaquest pro headsets.. I suppose there is the $350 occulus model but how many people are buying those? its not a mass market device yet, but when does it become one? thats what the OP proposes...how is it after having a VR game that sells 20M is it still not really a mainstream thing. If a console game sells 20M we sure end up knowing about it.... that game has all the hype.... Ive never even heard of skarrghost and I thought I digested plenty of new games news. says a lot about the lack of visibility for VR....all now...I dont even know what the five kilelr app games on VR are.

I know VR is awsome when I tried it an amusement center ...hooked up with hydrualics...it was Pcars 2, seemed to be running on PC...it was awesome..... A very visceral experience that had me wishing I could build a VR-racing sim set up at home! but the hydraulics are even more expensive...then there is the cost of a builiding a PC for it from scratch, that would sit near the set up...oh and then theres the headset. I reckon a set up like that is easily 12 grand. Id love to build something like that, though!

I never said it would go the way of the minidisc! .....Just saying why I dont think it will be mainstream anytime soon... maybe when they are cheaper to make (the full 4K 120FPS flavoured VR burger at £250) they will be as common for console users to own as pro pads and headsets. Im all for VR, becoming more popular and common among console gaming btw. dissapointed that xbox and nintnedo have not gotten in on the action yet, but I comend sony for simply taking the lead and investing in VR and even developing a next generation of their headset. I have no doubt its a long term commitment for them. thats not the question though is it? ...... Its why VR is not mainstream even with game that has done mainstream numbers. What is the reason for that?

 

[FullMetalx117]

I bought Quest 2 during Black Friday in 2021. Used it for about a week, showed it to younger family members who were super impressed, and then never used it again. It’s like the Wii in the sense it’s different, super cool the first time. But it’s honestly too much trouble to just turn it on and casually use it, always some random setup/annoyance required

 

[SmokedMeat]

lower cost of entry= more people buy it. That not something thats going to change unless people suddenly start earning more money, that buying $500 is some kind of regular thing for gamers akin to buying pro pad, or a headset. id imagine they still cant make high performance VR headsets at a lower cost. and for most people the limit they will spend on a games accessory might not be higher than the the what some people would spend on a force-feedback wheel (around $300 but they are the hardcore racing guys...not every gamer is one of those) VR oc course has more application than a steering wheel but for joe casual...its a fancy gamimg accessory that costs as much as a console or a graphics card or more if you want a good one. atleast meta have those cheap ones they do and then there is those one that people stick their phones into...cheaper options but id imagine nowhere near PSVR2 or metaquest pro headsets.. I suppose there is the $350 occulus model but how many people are buying those? its not a mass market device yet, but when does it become one? thats what the OP proposes...how is it after having a VR game that sells 20M is it still not really a mainstream thing. If a console game sells 20M we sure end up knowing about it.... that game has all the hype.... Ive never even heard of skarrghost and I thought I digested plenty of new games news. says a lot about the lack of visibility for VR....all now...I dont even know what the five kilelr app games on VR are.

I know VR is awsome when I tried it an amusement center ...hooked up with hydrualics...it was Pcars 2, seemed to be running on PC...it was awesome..... A very visceral experience that had me wishing I could build a VR-racing sim set up at home! but the hydraulics are even more expensive...then there is the cost of a builiding a PC for it from scratch, that would sit near the set up...oh and then theres the headset. I reckon a set up like that is easily 12 grand. Id love to build something like that, though!

I never said it would go the way of the minidisc! .....Just saying why I dont think it will be mainstream anytime soon... maybe when they are cheaper to make (the full 4K 120FPS flavoured VR burger at £250) they will be as common for console users to own as pro pads and headsets. Im all for VR, becoming more popular and common among console gaming btw. dissapointed that xbox and nintnedo have not gotten in on the action yet, but I comend sony for simply taking the lead and investing in VR and even developing a next generation of their headset. I have no doubt its a long term commitment for them. thats not the question though is it? ...... Its why VR is not mainstream even with game that has done mainstream numbers. What is the reason for that?

My point is VR doesn’t need to be mainstream to succeed. It doesn’t need to sell console numbers nor should it be expected to.

Quest is as close to mainstream penetration as it gets because it’s an all in one wireless device at a very fair price - and even that didn’t set the world on fire. VR will likely never have that mainstream appeal, because it asks too much of the user. That’s okay.

 

[EliteClarity]

Its niche still to most I suppose. 3d TVs Far outsold VR Headsets and look how that ended. Some people just know what they like and like what they know. People have been pushing VR since the early 90's and the reality is it may never be Mainstream while more simple pleasures exist.

I Know for one I would really struggle to convince 95% of people I know to get into VR, Whether it's cost, Eyesight issues, not wanting to wear a headset Etc.

 

[Wonko_C]

Thats where I think VR's biggest success will come from. Current $20 indie/demo games + big budget game's getting a VR mode. And hopefully that VR mode applies to as much of the game as possible compared to the standard gamepad/m/kb game. However, that game will be full priced too.

I'd be ecstatic if we get a good number of hybrid games, but I doubt it's going to be the case. We need VR updates for the big 3rd party games like GTAV, Call of Duty, Fortnite, Destiny 2, etc. (I don't even like these games but I sure as hell would play them if they had VR) and for Sony's AAA games. I know I'm being pessimistic but I lost faith in Sony going further than a couple of games each year for the next 3 years, then it'll fizzle out like with PSVR1... I never wanted to be so wrong in my life, and give me Gravity Rush VR!