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[The Shadow]

Why Obama Voters Defected

Similar to this thread but the study was a longitudinal one by a different group and has a more optimistic outlook for Dems in 2020.

Some excerpts:

What changed was the importance of identity. Attitudes toward immigration, toward black Americans, and toward Muslims were more correlated with voting Republican in 2016 than in 2012. Put a little differently, Barack Obama won re-election with the support of voters who held negative views toward blacks, Muslims, and immigrants. Sides notes that ”37 percent of white Obama voters had a less favorable attitude toward Muslims" while 33 percent said ”illegal immigrants" were ”mostly a drain."

What caused this shift in the salience of race and identity (beyond the election of a black man in 2008) and augured an increase in racial polarization? You might point to the explosion of protests against police violence between 2012 and 2016, and the emergence of Black Lives Matter, events that sharply polarized Americans along racial lines. And in the middle of 2015 arrived the Trump campaign, a racially demagogic movement that blamed America's perceived decline on immigrants, Muslims, and foreign leaders, and which had its roots in Donald Trump's effort to delegitimize Barack Obama as a noncitizen, or at least not native-born.

Most populists, according to Drutman, were already Republican voters in the 2012 election, prizing their conservative views on identity over liberal economic policies. A minority, about 28 percent, backed Obama. But four years later, Clinton could only hold on to 6 in 10 of those populist voters who had voted for Obama. Most Democratic defectors were populists, and their views reflect it: They hold strong positive feelings toward Social Security and Medicare, like Obama voters, but are negative toward black people and Muslims, and see themselves as ”in decline."

This is a portrait of the most common Obama-to-Trump voter: a white American who wants government intervention in the economy but holds negative, even prejudiced, views toward racial, ethnic, and religious minorities. In 2012, these voters seemed to value economic liberalism over a white, Christian identity and backed Obama over Romney. By 2016, the reverse was true: Thanks to Trump's campaign, and the events of the preceding years, they valued that identity over economic assistance. In which case, you can draw an easy conclusion about the Clinton campaign—even accounting for factors like misogyny and James Comey's twin interventions, it failed to articulate an economic message strong enough to keep those populists in the fold and left them vulnerable to Trump's identity appeal. You could then make a firm case for the future: To win them back, you need liberal economic populism.

tl;dr - Trump swung racist Obama voters in 2016 but will lose them in 2020 because his economic policies are firmly big business/republican friendly.


I think it gives too much credit to Trump. He's less a savvy businessman and more an obnoxious, racist who normalized hate, but I can see the rest of the conclusions being pretty spot-on, particularly the downward turn of Trumps appeal since he pretty much dropped the wall as a talking point, his ban being ruled unconstitutional, and is really pushing Trump-care, which would insure less, not more people.

 

[Lights and Waves]

Thanks for the tl;dr.

Tbh I'm so tired of all the post election "why democrats lost" think pieces.

 

[Escape Goat]

They wanted to vote for the first orange president.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

so dems lost the deplorables

 

[MWS Natural]

I don't want them back. I want republicans to keep winning so they completely destroy everything and they suffer along with the rest of the minorities.

 

[Dude Abides]

I think it gives too much credit to Trump. He's less a savvy businessman and more an obnoxious, racist who normalized hate, but I can see the rest of the conclusions being pretty spot-on, particularly the downward turn of Trumps appeal since he pretty much dropped the wall as a talking point, his ban being ruled unconstitutional, and is really pushing Trump-care, which would insure less, not more people.

But if they now see and emotionally respond to Trump as the avatar of white identity, and his critics as the enemies of that identity, it may not matter that the policies that helped earn him that identification in the first place have largely fallen by the wayside.

 

[The Shadow]

so dems lost the deplorables

Lost the economically cognizant ones, yes. The article talks about how they voted for Obama, despite their racist leanings, because of his economic policies, and how Clintion pretty much dropped the ball in not talking about it, whereas Trump did.

But if they now see and emotionally respond to Trump as the avatar of white identity, and his critics as the enemies of that identity, it may not matter that the policies that helped earn him that identification in the first place have largely fallen by the wayside.

They're racist, but they're not dumb racist. They voted for Obama despite him having a Muslim name and being black, specifically because he didn't support republican economic policies. Their bread and butter is economic policy in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Mahonay]

Racists got high off the feeling of someone running for president telling them that they're amazing Americans for being bigoted and hateful. That was enough to earn a vote from them. Ignoring that he would fuck over anyone but the rich if you stopped and thought about it for even a second.

Trump won an election holding what were white supremacist rallies at the end of the day.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

I don't want them back. I want republicans to keep winning so they completely destroy everything and they suffer along with the rest of the minorities.

We would have been so much better off if back in the 1960s, the racist Democrats largely left behind by the Civil Rights movement were also told to fuck off by Republicans. But alas, Nixon wanted those votes!

 

[Opto]

So yes, white people failed America, but how do I blame anyone but them. And before you say I'm racist, I've dated white people, so I'm not racist.

 

[F0rneus]

So yes, white people failed America, but how do I blame anyone but them. And before you say I'm racist, I've dated white people, so I'm not racist.

It's cool, as long as you have white friends!

 

[Mahonay]

Lost the economically cognizant ones, yes. The article talks about how they voted for Obama, despite their racist leanings, because of his economic policies, and how Clintion pretty much dropped the ball in not talking about it, whereas Trump did.

"WE ARE GOING TO BE DOING SO MUCH WINNING!"

Idiots. Anyone who voted Trump deserves ridicule.

 

[RuGalz]

they only read the title "orange is the new black"

 

[NoblesseOblige]

They're racist, but they're not dumb racist. They voted for Obama despite him having a Muslim name and being black, specifically because he didn't support republican economic policies. Their bread and butter is economic policy in the grand scheme of things.

They're still pretty damn stupid if they thought Trump was going to change things for the better.

 

[Mahonay]

So yes, white people failed America, but how do I blame anyone but them. And before you say I'm racist, I've dated white people, so I'm not racist.

As a white dude, you are correct.

White people are also the ones behind the fucked up Gerrymandering and voter suppression that ended up securing the Electoral College for Trump.

 

[Strike]

"No, they just wanted change. Democratic policies just weren't liberal enough! They need to focus on economics and real policies. Not identity politics."

"How could they possibly be racist if they voted for Obama in 2012? See this is why people voted for Trump"

This is the shit I've been dealing with since last November.

The guy literally launches his campaign by talking shit about Mexicans, but racism was somehow not the driving factor.

 

[poppedcollar69]

Racist white folk that want their Medicare, that's a good start on a definition of 'deplorable'

[The Clinton campaign] failed to articulate an economic message strong enough to keep those populists in the fold and left them vulnerable to Trump’s identity appeal. You could then make a firm case for the future: To win them back, you need liberal economic populism.

Eh... I don't think so. Clinton couldn't have gained much from this tactic cause Trump promised (lied) economic populism. He even duped me, I actually did think some economic populist policies would materialize under Trump, but instead it's been the standard ruthless Republican pillaging of the commons in order to line the pockets of the wealthy.

 

[Meowster]

So yes, white people failed America, but how do I blame anyone but them. And before you say I'm racist, I've dated white people, so I'm not racist.

You're absolutely right.

 

[mo60]

So democrats pretty much need to craft a message that makes trump and republicans look like the elites while they are the non-elites.This would work better once trump starts to do more damage.

 

[F0rneus]

they only read the title "orange is the new black"

Well played

 

[The Shadow]

"No, they just wanted change. Democratic policies just weren't liberal enough!"

"How could they possibly be racist if they voted for Obama in 2012? See this is why people voted for Trump"

This is the shit I've been dealing with since last November.

Hey, I personally believed the second one myself. *shrug*

The irony is that I had a prejudice of racist people. I assumed that for a racist, race is the most important factor, when apparently some of them actually have legit priorities over their racism. I would have never guessed this in a million years. For a racist, I always thought it was white above all else.

 

[Sunster]

how many of these articles will be written?

 

[ZealousD]

I don't want them back. I want republicans to keep winning so they completely destroy everything and they suffer along with the rest of the minorities.

Yeah. Destroy the country. That'll learn 'em.

/s

 

[pigeon]

Hey, I personally believed the second one myself. *shrug*

The irony is that I had a prejudice of racist people. I assumed that for a racist, race is the most important factor, when apparently some of them actually have legit priorities over their racism. I would have never guessed this in a million years. For a racist, I always thought it was white above all else.

I have to assume you don't know very many racists. Racists are capable of liking lots of people of color as long as those people of color help them believe they aren't racist. It doesn't mean racism isn't paramount for them, it just means that racism is more complicated than "BLACK PEOPLE BAD!"

 

[Dreams-Visions]

how many of these articles will be written?

as many as it takes.

 

[Mahonay]

how many of these articles will be written?

It will always be insane that Trump actually got elected. So, a lot.

 

[kirblar]

I strongly, strongly recommend looking at the source material for this piece- it's incredibly throrough- https://www.voterstudygroup.org/reports/2016-elections/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond and http://d.pr/f/cJQ7P5 (first one has most of the pretty charts)

They're still pretty damn stupid if they thought Trump was going to change things for the better.

Racism is a luxury good. In good times, people don't want to share.

 

[Autodidact]

I have to assume you don't know very many racists. Racists are capable of liking lots of people of color as long as those people of color help them believe they aren't racist. It doesn't mean racism isn't paramount for them, it just means that racism is more complicated than "BLACK PEOPLE BAD!"

Yes. When racists in the deep south say they have black friends, they mean it and probably have some black friends. Doesn't mean they respect those friends or view them as equals.

 

[sphagnum]

To win them back, you need liberal economic populism.

Well there it is.

 

[Mahonay]

Yes. When racists in the deep south say they have black friends, they mean it and probably have some black friends. Doesn't mean they respect those friends or view them as equals.

Or stop themselves from constantly saying racist shit all the time.

 

[Enzom21]

Hey, I personally believed the second one myself. *shrug*

The irony is that I had a prejudice of racist people. I assumed that for a racist, race is the most important factor, when apparently some of them actually have legit priorities over their racism. I would have never guessed this in a million years. For a racist, I always thought it was white above all else.

What this dude's friend a racist?

how many of these articles will be written?

These articles will stop when white moderates stop telling PoC to appeal to these racists so they'll vote for a Dem.
Or when white moderates stop trying to blame PoC for Trump's win.

Don't hold your breath though.

 

[Bleepey]

Malcolm Gladwelll said as much in an episode of revisionist history. I can't remember which though.

 

[Autodidact]

Well there it is.

Okay, before we go down this hole, answer some questions:

LBJ gave the people more social programs than any president since FDR. Medicare, Head Start, improvements to Social Security, food stamps, etc.

Now:

1. Why did the south swing hardcore Republican after LBJ? (Hint: he signed another law in 1964)

2. Why has the south continue to vote Republican? (hint: who also benefits from those social programs)

3. How might the answers to these questions show why social programs and economic populism might not appeal to southern voters in the 2010s?

 

[Machina]

so dems lost the deplorables

It says a lot about a country when the Democrats can't get by with them staying lost

 

[ScatheZombie]

People keep blaming this or that group of voters when the reality is that the Democrats put forward a poor candidate who got too confident and too comfortable and ran a half-assed campaign.

 

[Mahonay]

People keep blaming this or that group of voters when the reality is that the Democrats put forward a poor candidate who got too confident and too comfortable and ran a half-assed campaign.

It's not just one or the other. They are both reasons Dems lost. Of course Hillary ran a bad campaign.

 

[Enzom21]

People keep blaming this or that group of voters when the reality is that the Democrats put forward a poor candidate who got too confident and too comfortable and ran a half-assed campaign.

Regardless of whether or not Dems put forth a poor candidate, racist whites still carry the blame for Trump's win.
Not liking Hilary doesn't mean it's a okay to vote for a racist.

 

[PantherLotus]

(this just another blame BLM article hiding in plain sight?)

 

[sphagnum]

Okay, before we go down this hole, answer some questions:

LBJ gave the people more social programs than any president since FDR. Medicare, Head Start, improvements to Social Security, food stamps, etc.

Now:

1. Why did the south swing hardcore Republican after LBJ? (Hint: he signed another law in 1964)

2. Why has the south continue to vote Republican? (hint: who also benefits from those social programs)

3. How might the answers to these questions show why social programs and economic populism might not appeal to southern voters in the 2010s?

I'm aware of those things, but the electorate will not be as white in 2020 as it was in the 1960s, even in the South (though we wouldbhave to deal with gerrymandering and voter suppression), Millennials - who are going to stop being the "youth vote" with time - are more open to left wing policy platforms, and technocratic liberalsm has about zero appeal to people who don't already identify as Democrats without an extremely appealing candidate.

What is needed is a charismatic candidate who is both a vigorous champion of liberal social policies and left wing economics unabashedly, unafraid to go to war with the Republicans while also presenting a clear and easily marketable platform.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

(this just another blame BLM article hiding in plain sight?)

I took it more as a bunch of racists being triggered. That is, the racists are to blame, not BLM.

 

[Aaronology]

People keep blaming this or that group of voters when the reality is that the Democrats put forward a poor candidate who got too confident and too comfortable and ran a half-assed campaign.

There are a myriad of reasons Donald Trump is in the White House right now. A few of them HRC is responsible for and a number of them she is not. When I see a hot take laying the blame on any one single issue I get a little skeptical, because that's usually a good indication of bias or some agenda being pushed.

 

[VendettaRed07]

It would make sense that Trump couldn't hold onto many of the rust belt voters he flipped

He sold them being something different policy wise but is really just a dumpster fire propped up by the GOP and they only tolerate him currently so they can get their agenda passed

But then again they could be just as easily duped by the next republican if they try the same thing

 

[F0rneus]

(this just another blame BLM article hiding in plain sight?)

No. It's just that white "moderates" who aren't "racist" suddenly voted GOP, when black people rose up against injustice.

 

[kirblar]

I took it more as a bunch of racists being triggered. That is, the racists are to blame, not BLM.

Exactly, it isn't an accident that post-election, they decided to back off of protest as a primary tactic. Part of it was not having access to the DoJ, part of it was that there was a blatantly obvious backfire effect w/ a whole bunch of racist white people that was tangibly obvious.

Jamelle Bouie is just about the last person who'd be "blaming" BLM for Trump.

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

(this just another blame BLM article hiding in plain sight?)

You're not familiar with Jamelle Bouie's work, are you?

 

[Suikoguy]

Well there it is.

That makes the assumption that there exists an economic populism that would override the racism.

Why vote for Clinton, with a populist economic policy, when you can vote for Trump with a "populist" economic "policy" AND the racism?

 

[kirblar]

That makes the assumption that there exists an economic populism that would override the racism.

Why vote for Clinton, with a populist economic policy, when you can vote for Trump with a populist economic "policy" AND the racism?

I think Bouie's point is that Trump's actually governing is anything but populist economics, letting you fight on that front with a bare minimum amount of effort.

Trump benefitted from having 0 record. If he makes it to relection, he's got one to run against. (This again goes to a point Dems need to keep in mind for future primaries: nom people who aren't exposed)

 

[Suikoguy]

I think Bouie's point is that Trump's actually governing is anything but populist economics, letting you fight on that front with a bare minimum amount of effort.

Trump benefitted from having 0 record. If he makes it to relection, he's got one to run against.

Yeah, he won't be able to point to a single "populist" policy.
Of course, this all assumes he makes it till 2020...

 

[Ecotic]

These detailed pieces make the situation too complicated. In American presidential elections there's about a 4-point handicap on average when the incumbent party tries to win a third term. Hillary under performed Obama's 2012 performance by about 3 points.

 

[NoRéN]

I don't want them back. I want republicans to keep winning so they completely destroy everything and they suffer along with the rest of the minorities.

This right here.