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[FortNinety]

Its still early days people. Even now. PSP's killer app is still yet to arrive - y'know that game that is uniquely PSP, only possible on PSP and all the better for it? In fact the PS2-like trickle of moderate to good games regularly hitting has yet to really pick up steam. Its still comparatively very expensive - in fact - it could be the most expensive console on the market. Amazingly the one stand out fact about the PSP is its UMD video sales - who could have guessed that 9 months ago? If any or all of these facts change then I reckon the PSP could generate some real sales momentum.

I want to believe this, but I don't think I'm the only one who noticed that there really aren't that much in the pipeline for the system. When the one game that has most people interested is a remake of an old NES game (Rockman Rockman) something is definitely amiss.

I don't doubt that the PSP will eventually find its legs, but its window of opportunity to become the next big thing is officially over.

 

[marc^o^]

It took time, but the fantastic Japan DS lineup is now reaching US and EU. Expect great DS sales for months to come, and a strong Nintendo lead in the handled market by the end of the year. PSP is a cool device but DS is hastily becoming the best portable GAMING machine. Mario Kart and Metroïd Prime Online should make it even more obvious. With the help of a price drop and of GT, the PSP could reach a higher volume market in 2006. Still that wouldn't solve its fragility/loading/control/game prices issues.

 

[jarrod]

It took time, but the fantastic Japan DS lineup is now reaching US and EU.

This is something that tends to get understated. In handheld gaming, Japan is the key market, even morseo than America... the reason being that 2/3's of all handheld software is produced by the Japanese and without fail the top line handheld releases tend to be Japanese. Plus the Japanese are far more exclusive centric and far more nationalistic, they tend not bother with ports or look to outside markets. Winning Japan is key in consoles (a PS2 minus it's fantastic JP support is essentially an Xbox in terms of library) and it's key in handhelds. In fact, I'd say Japan should be priority number 1 for Sony in regards to PSP... they need to get Crisis Core and GT Mobile out asap!

 

[Izzy]

Geez Izzy, did you really have to correct me in 2 seperate replies?

I want to believe this, but I don't think I'm the only one who noticed that there really aren't that much in the pipeline for the system.

Some of the upcoming PSP titles:

Boku no Watashi no Katamari Damacy
Capcom Classics Collection Vol. 1
Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core
Devil May Cry
Extreme Ghouls 'N Ghosts
Genso Suikoden I+II
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
Landstalker
Gran Turismo Mobile
Lemmings
Football Manager
Minna no Golf 2
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Summoner
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona
Loco Roco


There's so much more, though...use jarrod's list for reference.

 

[Riskbreaker]

Some of the upcoming PSP titles:

Boku no Watashi no Katamari Damacy
Capcom Classics Collection Vol. 1
Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core
Devil May Cry
Extreme Ghouls 'N Ghosts
Genso Suikoden I+II
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
Gran Turismo Mobile
Lemmings
Football Manager
Minna no Golf 2
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Summoner
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona


There's so much more, though...

Wow..SMT! If this title gets a U.S. release then I will definetly purchase a PSP.

 

[marc^o^]

There's obviously fun to be had with this game list, but I don't know, it lacks the DS lineup coolness factor.

 

[jarrod]

I *think* the Persona port may have been killed in favor of the Devil Summoner port actually. I kinda wish Atlus would just do a SMT1+2+if port so we'd have a chance at playing them. I can't believe Atlus USA passed on both the PSone and GBA remakes.

 

[Oni Jazar]

Its still early days people. Even now. PSP's killer app is still yet to arrive - y'know that game that is uniquely PSP, only possible on PSP and all the better for it? In fact the PS2-like trickle of moderate to good games regularly hitting has yet to really pick up steam. Its still comparatively very expensive - in fact - it could be the most expensive console on the market. Amazingly the one stand out fact about the PSP is its UMD video sales - who could have guessed that 9 months ago? If any or all of these facts change then I reckon the PSP could generate some real sales momentum.

I forsee the PSP having an excellent future. With wifi, widescreen, web browser, memory cards getting larger and cheaper, homebrew improving, it's got the potential to be an excellent portable entertainment device for years to come. And with the increased userbase along with the dedication of Sony there will be better games with either near ps2 level graphics or amazing 2d visuals. Who would've thought we would be seeing better then GTA3 level graphics and gameplay on a handheld in 2005? Later on Sony can unlock the processing power to provide even better visuals. There's some great stuff on the PSP now and even if they aren't 100% unique the portability advantage does mean a lot to people.

Still, Sony needs to get on the ball with online infrastructure mode. They should've been out of the gate with a great online system similar to Nintendo's and Xbox Live. There is no excuse for multiplayer games being adhoc only. Hopefully Nintendo's move to online was a kick in the face for Sony to get off their ass and have a great online component to the PSP and PS3 SOON.

 

[sonycowboy]

This is something that tends to get understated. In handheld gaming, Japan is the key market, even morseo than America... the reason being that 2/3's of all handheld software is produced by the Japanese and without fail the top line handheld releases tend to be Japanese. Plus the Japanese are far more exclusive centric and far more nationalistic, they tend not bother with ports or look to outside markets. Winning Japan is key in consoles (a PS2 minus it's fantastic JP support is essentially an Xbox in terms of library) and it's key in handhelds. In fact, I'd say Japan should be priority number 1 for Sony in regards to PSP... they need to get Crisis Core and GT Mobile out asap!

Well, to be fair, handhelds have been almost completely ignored by the western devs. For goodness sakes, THQ is the leading handheld software publisher! However, with the attention the PSP has gotten from EA, Activision, Take-Two, & SCEA (obviously ), there's absolutely no doubt that the overwhelming Eastern vs Western support for handheld development has to shift somewhat in terms of market share.

So, right now, Japan is obviously important, but it's been largely by western publishers almost complete lack of focus on the market.

 

[jarrod]

Well, to be fair, handhelds have been almost completely ignored by the western devs. For goodness sakes, THQ is the leading handheld software publisher! However, with the attention the PSP has gotten from EA, Activision, Take-Two, & SCEA (obviously ), there's absolutely no doubt that the overwhelming Eastern vs Western support for handheld development has to shift somewhat in terms of market share.

Despite that though... PSP and DS are practically even in terms of western made game announcements. That's the thing with the west, they'll support both PS2 and Xbox (DS and PSP) while the east will only move to PS2 (DS) support. Again a PS2 without it's stunning JP support would essentially be an Xbox content wise. Strategically in terms of development, Japan is by far Sony's most important market.

Also, Activision doesn't really seem to be expanding their handheld R&D much, they were pretty focused on GBA as well.

So, right now, Japan is obviously important, but it's been largely by western publishers almost complete lack of focus on the market.

To a degree, and I do expect some shifting in the future... but then the western game developer mindset seems rooted in the PC-centric "high end". Western developers of any real value will still focus on cutting edge technology (console or PC), leaving handheld R&D eternally secondary in terms of significance and prestiege. For the west to catch up to Japan in handhelds, it's going to take more than EA ports and a new GTA.

 

[Mihail]

To all the people saying PSP will pick up steam and Sony will add this and that service or compatability -- will Sony really be able to keep the PSP afloat and reinvest in it several times? Every time a feature or a service is added, it requires more capital. Furthermore, it is doubtful that the PSP division has seen any profit yet.

I'm really not implying that Sony won't be able to do it; I'm just really curious: can they continue to support and invest in the PSP without the blockbuster success they were probably hoping for?

 

[Razoric]

6 Million sold before a killer app (GTA) and not going through a U.S. Christmas shopping craze is pretty damn good IMO.

 

[Oni Jazar]

To all the people saying PSP will pick up steam and Sony will add this and that service or compatability -- will Sony really be able to keep the PSP afloat and reinvest in it several times? Every time a feature or a service is added, it requires more capital. Furthermore, it is doubtful that the PSP division has seen any profit yet.

I'm really not implying that Sony won't be able to do it; I'm just really curious: can they continue to support and invest in the PSP without the blockbuster success they were probably hoping for?

Has the PSP really sold below Sony's Expectations? I think it's doing admirably - not gangbusters but still very respectable at getting a slice of the portable market. Anyways based on Howard Stringer's comments you can tell that they're very committed to the system.

 

[open_mouth_]

The bottom line is that the PSP has been a resounding success so far and looks like it will continue to clean house in the portable market. Sony is expanding the market true, but it's hurting Nintendo (by eating lots of its market share) in the process. Nintendo must fucking hate Sony's guts, but that's competition, baby!

COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!
COMPETITION IS GREAT!

 

[mckmas8808]

Despite that though... PSP and DS are practically even in terms of western made game announcements. That's the thing with the west, they'll support both PS2 and Xbox (DS and PSP) while the east will only move to PS2 (DS) support. Again a PS2 without it's stunning JP support would essentially be an Xbox content wise. Strategically in terms of development, Japan is by far Sony's most important market.

OMG!!! Oh please stop it. Just stop it. Xbox content? It's not that bad. Doesn't the Xbox only move 200 units a week. The PSP is easily pushing 20,000.

 

[marc^o^]

And is piracy on PSP a factor? Can it hurt software sales or prevent developpers investment? Or is it only involving a small amount of people?

 

[sonycowboy]

To all the people saying PSP will pick up steam and Sony will add this and that service or compatability -- will Sony really be able to keep the PSP afloat and reinvest in it several times? Every time a feature or a service is added, it requires more capital. Furthermore, it is doubtful that the PSP division has seen any profit yet.

I'm really not implying that Sony won't be able to do it; I'm just really curious: can they continue to support and invest in the PSP without the blockbuster success they were probably hoping for?

Will sony be able to keep the PSP afloat??

Huh? Are you under the assumption that the PSP is in trouble??

They've sold 6M worldwide in 9 months, have a 30% market share on the system, have a great tie ratio, unbelievable UMD sales, despite having what most people consider to be too high of a price.

I fail to see the problem you're trying to describe.

 

[Mihail]

And is piracy on PSP a factor? Can it hurt software sales or prevent developpers investment? Or is it only involving a small amount of people?

I think the UMD sales to the mass market make the small pirating community insignificant.

 

[jarrod]

OMG!!! Oh please stop it. Just stop it. Xbox content? It's not that bad. Doesn't the Xbox only move 200 units a week. The PSP is easily pushing 20,000.

That's not a knock on Xbox. It has fantastic western support. Eastern support is just the main differentiating factor between Xbox and PS2. And unless Sony does something fast, it'll be the same on DS & PSP (though likely not to the same extreme degree).

 

[Mihail]

Will sony be able to keep the PSP afloat??

Huh? Are you under the assumption that the PSP is in trouble??

They've sold 6M worldwide in 9 months, have a 30% market share on the system, have a great tie ratio, unbelievable UMD sales, despite having what most people consider to be too high of a price.

I fail to see the problem you're trying to describe.

I definitely was not trying to imply a problem. I'm just talking investment. I admit to being completely uninformed of Sony's internal financial numbers, but even so I have to imagine that they lose a sizeable bundle from those 6 million PSP units, and that it's a fairly tough decision for the execs to say "We're going to invest in a content delivery system" as some posters suggested that Sony would do.

 

[mckmas8808]

To all the people saying PSP will pick up steam and Sony will add this and that service or compatability -- will Sony really be able to keep the PSP afloat and reinvest in it several times? Every time a feature or a service is added, it requires more capital. Furthermore, it is doubtful that the PSP division has seen any profit yet.

I'm really not implying that Sony won't be able to do it; I'm just really curious: can they continue to support and invest in the PSP without the blockbuster success they were probably hoping for?

Have you seen UMD sales? You do know that Sony gets paid for each UMD sold right? And that being games and movies. You need to think about the whole situation before you ask questions like that. Nintendo has sold what 7.5 million DS's? And Sony has sold around 6 million PSPs. Did you realize that the PSP came out after the DS worldwide? Did you know that the PSP missed Christmas in 2 territories last year.

 

[marc^o^]

If I remember well, Sony said 2 months ago they planned to sell 12 millions psp by the end of 2005. If they achieve to sell 10 millions more units in 2 months as forecasted, we will call it a success indeed. But the launch of the x360 and the DS bundles may make it really hard for Sony. Unless GTA...

 

[Razoric]

If I remember well, Sony said 2 months ago they planned to sell 12 millions psp by the end of 2005. If they achieve to sell 10 millions more units in 2 months as forecasted, we will call it a success indeed. But the launch of the x360 and the DS bundles may make it really hard for Sony. Unless GTA...

They are half way there, just released in Europe, have GTA coming and the Christmas season is upon us.

I'd say Sony will be pretty happy with their PSP sales.

 

[Mook1e]

If I remember well, Sony said 2 months ago they planned to sell 12 millions psp by the end of 2005. If they achieve to sell 10 millions more units in 2 months as forecasted, we will call it a success indeed. But the launch of the x360 and the DS bundles may make it really hard for Sony. Unless GTA...

1. They said end of FY, which for them is March 2006.
2. They said they planned to BUILD 12 million PSPs.
3. The increased it recently to 13 million.

 

[Andy787]

Regardless of their console presence, wasn't it unanimously considered that Sony was the underdog when it came to entering the handheld market? Why is the fact that Sony has essentially garnered half of the US (and likely similar or more in EU, and I'm obviously not talking about installed base, but monthly marketshare) handheld marketshare not considered highly impressive by many? In the 20 years of GameBoy dominance (or monopoly, really), has any other competitor ever succeeded to anywhere near that extent?

Anyway, I really hope Rockstar has an absolutely massive marketing campaign planned for LCS of the same level of III/VC/SA. Seriously, if they have a great ad as usual, and really drill it home to the masses that there is a game of the level of the PS2 GTAs in the palm of their hand, it could be huge. At least I hope so.

 

[DarienA]

I definitely was not trying to imply a problem. I'm just talking investment. I admit to being completely uninformed of Sony's internal financial numbers, but even so I have to imagine that they lose a sizeable bundle from those 6 million PSP units, and that it's a fairly tough decision for the execs to say "We're going to invest in a content delivery system" as some posters suggested that Sony would do.

Uh Sony turns a profit on software sales... and UMD sales... the PSP is not going anywhere. It may not be the run away blockbuster some predicted, but it certainly isn't anywhere near a failiure.

 

[soundwave05]

PSP, DS, and Game Boy are going to be around for a loooooong time.

I don't see any of those three brands going anywhere.

I think what some people were expecting/hoping for was that we'd end up with one portable brand, but that's definitely not happening.

PSP is successful, but Nintendo is basically still selling the same amount of portables as they were before and probably more software now.

Its win-win for everyone.

 

[marc^o^]

1. They said end of FY, which for them is March 2006.
2. They said they planned to BUILD 12 million PSPs.
3. The increased it recently to 13 million.

I just checked and they said 12 millions between April 2005 and March 2006. Their first estimate was 18 millions and they revised it. So, nice to hear they increased it to 13 millions, but Sony'd better have a hell of a Christmas to achieve this figure.

 

[Oni Jazar]

Its win-win for everyone.

It is. Well for the consumers mostly.

 

[Mihail]

I'm just going to reiterate my position to make sure I'm not being misunderstood: No one can sanely say the PSP is a failure. What it did to Nintendo's deathgrip on the handheld market is unprecedented. And certainly I'm not saying that Sony will pull PSP support or something crazy like that. The PSP will keep going strong. What I was curious about is how much more they can invest in the system -- providing services like video-on-demand in the U.S. and whatnot. But I'm not even doubting they can do it; I'm just thinking outloud (and in text). And I apologize, since the iPod thread is what originally got me thinking, and the fact that there are 6 million PSP units out there continued the train of thought for me.

 

[marc^o^]

It is. Well for the consumers mostly.

It really is indeed. Without the PSP there's little chance we would have seen Mario Kart ONLINE and so many Nintendo franchises in one single year.

Without the DS, the PSP may have cost 350$ and GTA may not have included a multiplayer mode.

 

[mckmas8808]

It really is indeed. Without the PSP there's little chance we would have seen Mario Kart ONLINE and so many Nintendo franchises in one single year.

Without the DS, the PSP may have cost 350$ and GTA may not have included a multiplayer mode.

^^ This man speaks the truth.

 

[mckmas8808]

So, nice to hear they increased it to 13 millions, but Sony'd better have a hell of a Christmas to achieve this figure.

Have you ever seen what Christmas time does to consoles and handheld sales? Take notice this year. And remember the PSP had a serious lack of games this summer. The same will not be said this holiday season.

 

[Mook1e]

I just checked and they said 12 millions between April 2005 and March 2006. Their first estimate was 18 millions and they revised it. So, nice to hear they increased it to 13 millions, but Sony'd better have a hell of a Christmas to achieve this figure.

Check again.
That (Apr 05-Mar 06) is their FY.
They never estimated 18 million. That was a rumour stated by Japanese news agency Nikkei using unconfirmed sources and Sony refuted it.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6128025.html

Kutaragi stated 12 million PSPs by March 2006 since the beginning of 2005.

 

[soundwave05]

Without the PSP you would not see Mario Kart online this year IMO.

Also without PSP I don't think you'd have the DS and then Nintendo wouldn't have Brain Training and Nintendogs.

We're also seeing Nintendo and Square-Enix closer than they have been in a decade, since the release of Super Mario RPG really.

Nintendo should be thanking Sony.

Competetion is good for everyone.

 

[marc^o^]

Kutaragi stated 12 million PSPs by March 2006 since the beginning of 2005.

So that's 12 millions in 15 months, that seems achievable. Where do they stand now? And does someone know how much consoles are sold on a WW level in December, on a normal basis? Microsoft plans to sell 2.5 millions x360. Nintendo expect to sell at the very least the same amount of DS. Is there enough room for anybody to achieve these figures? Or will Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo compete for the same money, meaning someone could lose a lot this Christmas?

 

[vangace]

I love fanboy analysis, i am not trying to flame anyone but it doesn't mean shit if a sony or nintendo sell a ton of these handhelds if their cost of capital higher. I mean if you want to do a clear analysis look at their financial statements and stop this madness.

 

[mckmas8808]

So that's 12 millions in 15 months, that seems achievable. Where do they stand now?

At 6 million like Howard Stringer said. That's with 9 months in Japan, 5 months in US, and one month in EU. They still have 6 more months left.

 

[Frankfurter]

So that's 12 millions in 15 months, that seems achievable. Where do they stand now? And does someone know how much consoles are sold on a WW level in December, on a normal basis? Microsoft plans to sell 2.5 millions x360. Nintendo expect to sell at the very least the same amount of DS. Is there enough room for anybody to achieve these figures? Or will Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo compete for the same money, meaning someone could lose a lot this Christmas?

Just for comparison. Nintendo sold about 2 million GBA's in December 2004 in the USA alone.
But afaik Nintendo is always stronger at christmas than during the year (compared to the Sony/MS). December is by far the strongest month in the year and 2.5 million for X360 and DS both sounds quite realistic (DS could sell shitloads more, but that depends on if the DS gains momentum in the next months).

 

[marc^o^]

At 6 million like Howard Stringer said.

Are they really at 6 million sold or is it the usual shipped trick?

 

[kaching]

Are they really at 6 million sold or is it the usual shipped trick?

It's shipped, as always. And it's funny you'd classify it as a trick given that your more likely to get an accurate shipped number than you are an accurate sell through number from any source. If Sony shipped them, they sold them as far as they're concerned and at least they can announce exactly how many they shipped. You'll get just as good an idea of PSP demand over time this way since retailers won't simply keep ordering more units if they're sitting on larger and larger stockpiles that aren't moving.

 

[mckmas8808]

It's shipped, as always. And it's funny you'd classify it as a trick given that your more likely to get an accurate shipped number than you are an accurate sell through number from any source. If Sony shipped them, they sold them as far as they're concerned and at least they can announce exactly how many they shipped. You'll get just as good an idea of PSP demand over time this way since retailers won't simply keep ordering more units if they're sitting on larger and larger stockpiles that aren't moving.

So why did sonycowboy say this?

And we can already account for (by sales tracking estimates) well over 5M units for the regions that we have a good idea about.

Seems to make the 6M seem a bit high, but plausable to me.

~1.9M US
~1.9M Japan
~1M Western Europe
~??? Rest of Europe
~??? Canada, Australia, NZ, Korea

Looks like they are sale through numbers.

 

[soundwave05]

GBA sold 2 million in December 2004 alone, but you can't expect DS or PSP to do that.

GBA is the magic $99 price point at that time, although the DS is closer, I've found that a lot of people simply will not bite on a handheld device that gets into triple digit territory because you're getting into console type pricing then.

 

[Oni Jazar]

Looks like they are sale through numbers.

Sony has always talked in shipped numbers AFAIK.

 

[sonycowboy]

Sony has always talked in shipped numbers AFAIK.

Well, I can tell you that they had shipped 5M as of June 30th and that when they announce shipments later this month, through September 30th, it will be WELL over 7.5M units.

I can ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEE that Sony's shipped numbers as of Sept 30th, will be well beyond 7M units. And as I said here earlier, they should be well over 7.5M units.

So, it's not shipped units.

 

[mckmas8808]

I'm afraid sonycowboy you may have to say that like 1000 times before everybody gets it.

 

[kaching]

Fair point - it wasn't a number given in a quarterly report, it was a number given in keynote address, so no guarantee that Stringer would use the same measure for those purposes.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

He rounded up?

Japan and North America together sold through more than 4 million already and Sonycowboy already hit home they shipped more than 6 million if these are just ship numbers.

 

[Pimpwerx]

PSP has to be above 7.5M shipped by now. That would be only 4.5M for the fiscal year. They have 8.5M more to go to reach their revised numbers. I think production has increased to 1.5M or so per month by now, so they're on track. If the units weren't selling, shipments would dry up accordingly. 13M by next March puts them at 16M WW. They would be fairly even with the DS at that point IMO. They've gotten 30% of the total market, and that's going against the entrenched GBA. Once that drops off the map, it'll be down to the DS and PSP, and the system is looking extremely impressive in that comparison. That they can compete with the combined handheld might of the Nintendo dynasty at present, with a totally stupid pricepoint I might add, is quite impressive IMO. Then again, I don't subscribe to the notion that the market will remain split. I fully expect the PSP to pull away in the long run. I just don't know how Sony will pull back lost ground in Japan. There just doesn't seem to be a killer app for that market (unlike GTA for the west). So once Pokemon lands, I can only see the DS' margin widening. PEACE.