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Special counsel is investigating Trump for possible obstruction of justice, officials

S

SuperEpicMan

Banned
SJurgenson said:
There are two ways Trump can fire Mueller:
  1. Order Rosenstein to do it. If he refuses, fire him. Continue down the line of succession for DAG until someone agrees to, Robert Bork style.
  2. Sign an executive order repealing the Justice Department regulations protecting Mueller from being fired by the President, or even the entire special counsel regulations. You cannot have a special counsel investigating Trump if there is no such thing as a special counsel.
To people claiming Trump 'cannot' fire Mueller, that is not strictly correct. Trump is the head of the Executive Branch. Mueller is now an employee of the Justice Department, an Executive department -- therefore, without anything additional restricting him, Trump can fire Mueller.

The only thing protecting Mueller is the Justice Department Special Counsel regulations that do restrict who can fire the SC (the AG/acting AG) -- but since they are internal Executive Branch rules and not laws, Trump can just issue an executive order to change or repeal them in part or entirely.

As a sidebar, this is also why Kamala Harris' grilling of Rosenstein about the exact protections given to Mueller was kind of pointless -- the SC regulations are just that, regulations. Rosenstein could have used any language Harris wanted, and Mueller is still ultimately fireable by Trump.

All that said, since the SC regulations could never actually fully protect a SC, they are designed not to make it legally impossible to interfere with a SC, but to make it extremely politically damaging to do so. There is no way for Trump to make the SC go away quietly without anyone noticing -- to order someone to fire him under the regs, or to repeal the regs requires a paper trail that alerts Congress and the public as to what happened immediately. Think of SC regs less like a padlock on a gate, but more like a safety seal on a pill bottle -- it's not going to stop tampering, but it makes it obvious when that happens.

So, what happens if Trump does fire Mueller?

First, remember the shitstorm that got us here, from firing Comey? That, times a couple orders of magnitude. Sessions/Rosenstein have been presenting a technically plausible excuse for firing Comey (that no one believes). Firing Mueller would not even have the veneer of a plausible cause, it would be all but impossible to claim it was anything but obstruction.

Second, as Adam Schiff said on Twitter the other day, Congress could just pass a law re-establishing the SC (but under congressional or judicial control) and re-hire Mueller. That would require 2/3 of both Houses to do, but I'd imagine the Republicans would do it just to lessen the flames from the ongoing hellstom that would be erupting.
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Thanks for this. With all that said, I think Mueller will eventually get fired. Trump has shown time and again that he is comfortable making damnable decisions, if it is in his interest.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
SuperEpicMan said:
Thanks for this. With all that said, I think Mueller will eventually get fired. Trump has shown time and again that he is comfortable making damnable decisions, if it is in his interest.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I fear he will. I'm of the opinion that Trump's fate has been sealed since he fired Comey, but firing Mueller would expedite the process considerably.

I would not be wholly shocked if Trump just gave up and resigned, either. It's obvious he fucking hates his life now, and it's clear it's not going to get any better. I could see him giving some bullshit excuse about how partisan and divisive politics are, and that he's going to focus his swamp draining efforts elsewhere out-of-office.
 
M

Mark L

Member
One thing that is worth mentioning is that Mueller himself is well aware of all of this. I think it is safe to say that he is taking appropriate precautionary measures for the good of the country.
 
C

Candescence

Member
SJurgenson said:
There are two ways Trump can fire Mueller:
  1. Order Rosenstein to do it. If he refuses, fire him. Continue down the line of succession for DAG until someone agrees to, Robert Bork style.
  2. Sign an executive order repealing the Justice Department regulations protecting Mueller from being fired by the President, or even the entire special counsel regulations. You cannot have a special counsel investigating Trump if there is no such thing as a special counsel.
To people claiming Trump 'cannot' fire Mueller, that is not strictly correct. Trump is the head of the Executive Branch. Mueller is now an employee of the Justice Department, an Executive department -- therefore, without anything additional restricting him, Trump can fire Mueller.

The only thing protecting Mueller is the Justice Department Special Counsel regulations that do restrict who can fire the SC (the AG/acting AG) -- but since they are internal Executive Branch rules and not laws, Trump can just issue an executive order to change or repeal them in part or entirely.

As a sidebar, this is also why Kamala Harris' grilling of Rosenstein about the exact protections given to Mueller was kind of pointless -- the SC regulations are just that, regulations. Rosenstein could have used any language Harris wanted, and Mueller is still ultimately fireable by Trump.

All that said, since the SC regulations could never actually fully protect a SC, they are designed not to make it legally impossible to interfere with a SC, but to make it extremely politically damaging to do so. There is no way for Trump to make the SC go away quietly without anyone noticing -- to order someone to fire him under the regs, or to repeal the regs requires a paper trail that alerts Congress and the public as to what happened immediately. Think of SC regs less like a padlock on a gate, but more like a safety seal on a pill bottle -- it's not going to stop tampering, but it makes it obvious when that happens.

So, what happens if Trump does fire Mueller?

First, remember the shitstorm that got us here, from firing Comey? That, times a couple orders of magnitude. Sessions/Rosenstein have been presenting a technically plausible excuse for firing Comey (that no one believes). Firing Mueller would not even have the veneer of a plausible cause, it would be all but impossible to claim it was anything but obstruction.

Second, as Adam Schiff said on Twitter the other day, Congress could just pass a law re-establishing the SC (but under congressional or judicial control) and re-hire Mueller. That would require 2/3 of both Houses to do, but I'd imagine the Republicans would do it just to lessen the flames from the ongoing hellstom that would be erupting.
Click to expand...

This is pretty much a fantastic summary of what's possible in this whole mess.

Seriously, Trump getting rid of Mueller would be unfathomably stupid, even for him, and might actually be the one mistake that might sink his presidency. I say "might", because I don't want to underestimate Trump's ability to weather political mistakes and the GOP's truly evil complicity in not standing up to him. Seriously, the bastard is like teflon, but hopefully we'll see his limits.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
Mark L said:
One thing that is worth mentioning is that Mueller himself is well aware of all of this. I think it is safe to say that he is taking appropriate precautionary measures for the good of the country.
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Yeah, one thing I didn't mention above as a consequence of firing Mueller: The floodgates would open, and the leaks would become a torrent.

Remember the week of nonstop leaks last month? Peoples phones the nation over would vibrate non-stop from the deluge of AP/WaPo/NYT push notifications.
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
I have no idea if Trump will go down the path of firing Mueller. I know he wants to, and I know he is his own worst enemy. I just don't know if he's so narcissistic (like, far beyond what we already know) to just say nothing else matters except my own ego. It's entirely plausible.

Getting twenty Republican senators on board to get Mueller back isn't a big deal. The much bigger issue is getting 96 Republican reps (as of this moment: SC-5 is going to stay Republican, GA-6 is a tossup) to join in. That's a ton, and they are all up for re-election next year and will have to navigate their way to not be primaried.

This is why I keep saying that Trump firing Mueller would be both the best and worst thing for the Democratic cause right now - at least until 2018.
 
Z

Zyae

Member
Gutek said:
I've seen that thrown around a lot. What does that even mean? The constitution will spontaneously combust into flames? The Supreme Court rules the constitution unconstitutional?
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The constitution was written to be fairly ambiguous outside of the specific powers it gives to the 3 branches of government. A lot of it is up to interpretation. Its not clear that a sitting president can technically be thrown in jail. If Mueller chose to indict Trump the questions would be


  • Does Mueller even have the authority
    Who can make the Arrest
    Can a sitting President sit in jail in the first place

among many others.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis#United_States
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
TheCochese said:
I have no idea if Trump will go down the path of firing Mueller. I know he wants to, and I know he is his own worst enemy. I just don't know if he's so narcissistic (like, far beyond what we already know) to just say nothing else matters except my own ego. It's entirely plausible.

Getting twenty Republican senators on board to get Mueller back isn't a big deal. The much bigger issue is getting 96 Republican reps (as of this moment: SC-5 is going to stay Republican, GA-6 is a tossup) to join in. That's a ton, and they are all up for re-election next year and will have to navigate their way to not be primaried.

This is why I keep saying that Trump firing Mueller would be both the best and worst thing for the Democratic cause right now - at least until 2018.
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It would be in the interest of Congressional Republicans to pass a new SC statute in that case. All the Republicans in Congress want to do is pass their evil agenda and get re-elected. The absolute firestorm that would erupt from firing Mueller would endanger both of those things if left unchecked.

Re-instating Mueller would salvage those prospects for the Republicans, even if only by a slim margin. The original appointment of Mueller calmed the Comey firestorm, but did not fully extinguish it.
 
J

jstripes

Banned
SJurgenson said:
Yeah, I fear he will. I'm of the opinion that Trump's fate has been sealed since he fired Comey, but firing Mueller would expedite the process considerably.

I would not be wholly shocked if Trump just gave up and resigned, either. It's obvious he fucking hates his life now, and it's clear it's not going to get any better. I could see him giving some bullshit excuse about how partisan and divisive politics are, and that he's going to focus his swamp draining efforts elsewhere out-of-office.
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He's never gonna resign unless he can somehow frame that move as being a victory. To resign would be to admit failure in the clearest terms possible, and his fragile ego won't allow that.
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
SJurgenson said:
It would be in the interest of Congressional Republicans to pass a new SC statute in that case. All the Republicans in Congress want to do is pass their evil agenda and get re-elected. The absolute firestorm that would erupt from firing Mueller would endanger both of those things if left unchecked.

Re-instating Mueller would salvage those prospects for the Republicans, even if only by a slim margin. The original appointment of Mueller calmed the Comey firestorm, but did not fully extinguish it.
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This is the intelligent thing to do, but I don't know if they'll be able to grasp that concept.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
Gutek said:
I've seen that thrown around a lot. What does that even mean? The constitution will spontaneously combust into flames? The Supreme Court rules the constitution unconstitutional?
Click to expand...

It's generally believed by the Justice Department that the President cannot be indicted or arrested. The logic is based off the following clause of the Constitution:

"Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law."

Most legal scholars take that clause to imply the President is not liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment until after he's been impeached and convicted by the Senate.

Here's an opinion from the Justice Department about the subject (PDF).

That said, the question has never been ruled on by the Supreme Court. It would be a constitutional crisis in the sense that there is no agreed upon answer to the question, and nobody really knows what would happen if someone tried to indict or arrest a sitting president.

If a president were indicted (and not arrested/detained), I'd imagine we'd see a flurry of court filings and hearings until SCOTUS rules on the matter.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
jstripes said:
He's never gonna resign unless he can somehow frame that move as being a victory. To resign would be to admit failure in the clearest terms possible, and his fragile ego won't allow that.
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We all believed on November 7th that Trump was setting himself up to play the victim of a crooked system and to make bank off that.

Playing the victim card, resigning, and having Pence pardon everyone would set Trump up to sell MAGA trinkets at 500% markup until the day he dies.

TheCochese said:
This is the intelligent thing to do, but I don't know if they'll be able to grasp that concept.
Click to expand...

They'll be able to understand the difference between the raging political firestorm keeping them from voting on their bills, and being able to deflect all questions to Mueller.
 
C

Candescence

Member
I'm personally interested in seeing the consequences of if Trump actually gets removed from office.

Let's remember that Trump has a very hardcore base that lives in their own little bubble of reality. They expected him to "drain the swamp" and smash the establishment, but if Trump is impeached less than a year into his presidency because he "supposedly broke the law", the base would be pissed. Sure, the Dems would get some blame for bringing down their great hope, but the GOP would be seen as responsible for "betraying their president/the democratically elected president of the united states".

Basically, I could see a hardcore backlash against the GOP for allowing an impeachment to happen, either in the form of increased support towards the dems or third parties, or just Trump's base giving up and staying home during elections. Any of these outcomes could easily hand the dems congress, the senate and the white house pretty swiftly, possibly for an entire generation. I don't think there's anyone who could plausibly fill the hole in the GOP that Trump occupied.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
SJurgenson said:
It's generally believed by the Justice Department that the President cannot be indicted or arrested. The logic is based off the following clause of the Constitution:

"Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law."

Most legal scholars take that clause to imply the President is not liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment until after he's been impeached and convicted by the Senate.

Here's an opinion from the Justice Department about the subject (PDF).

That said, the question has never been ruled on by the Supreme Court. It would be a constitutional crisis in the sense that there is no agreed upon answer to the question, and nobody really knows what would happen if someone tried to indict or arrest a sitting president.

If a president were indicted (and not arrested/detained), I'd imagine we'd see a flurry of court filings and hearings until SCOTUS rules on the matter.
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Thats pretty much how I understand it. He must be impeached by the house, convicted and removed by the senate, only then can actual criminal charges be filed (and he would most likely be pardoned).
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
SJurgenson said:
They'll be able to understand the difference between the raging political firestorm keeping them from voting on their bills, and being able to deflect all questions to Mueller.
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Some will. The question will be how many. It will also depend on where they are from. Oklahoma? No fucks given. Pennsylvania? Let the investigation play out.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
TheCochese said:
Some will. The question will be how many. It will also depend on where they are from. Oklahoma? No fucks given. Pennsylvania? Let the investigation play out.
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They don't have to give a fuck about the underlying accusations or abuse of power. Of course tons of Republicans don't give a fuck about that.

But they DO give a fuck about enacting their horrible agenda. That's all they care about. If Trump fires Mueller, passing a SC law and re-instating Mueller is not a function of justice for them -- it is a function of covering their asses to continue pushing their agenda while they still can.
 
S

Sephzilla

Member
If Trump himself is under criminal investigation wouldn't Trump firing Mueller effectively fall under obstruction of justice?
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
SJurgenson said:
They don't have to give a fuck about the underlying accusations or abuse of power. Of course tons of Republicans don't give a fuck about that.

But they DO give a fuck about enacting their horrible agenda. That's all they care about. If Trump fires Mueller, passing a SC law and re-instating Mueller is not a function of justice for them -- it is a function of covering their asses to continue pushing their agenda while they still can.
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Yes, I understand all these things. I also understand that voting to reinstate the SC would be viewed as traitorous to Trump, something that very much concerns Rs coming up on midterms. If you are in an area with heavy Trump support, you cannot support a method that would continue this "witch hunt."

That's my take on it anyway. It's harder in the House because the blowback would be immediate.
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
Sephzilla said:
If Trump himself is under criminal investigation wouldn't Trump firing Mueller effectively fall under obstruction of justice?
Click to expand...

qFD3eH6.png
 
S

SJurgenson

Banned
TheCochese said:
Yes, I understand all these things. I also understand that voting to reinstate the SC would be viewed as traitorous to Trump, something that very much concerns Rs coming up on midterms. If you are in an area with heavy Trump support, you cannot support a method that would continue this "witch hunt."

That's my take on it anyway. It's harder in the House because the blowback would be immediate.
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They are fucked either way.

Don't re-instate Mueller, and the political circus keeps them from legislating -- their primary voters kick them out of office for getting nothing done, and the general election voters bring Democrats a blue wave to fight the unchecked corruption.

They re-instate Mueller, and attempt to legislate -- they can spin that they did it to 'get back to business' while allowing the investigation to continue. They have a chance of surviving primary, and a slightly higher chance of surviving a GE.
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
SJurgenson said:
They are fucked either way.

Don't re-instate Mueller, and the political circus keeps them from legislating -- their primary voters kick them out of office for getting nothing done, and the general election voters bring Democrats a blue wave to fight the unchecked corruption.

They re-instate Mueller, and attempt to legislate -- they can spin that they did it to 'get back to business' while allowing the investigation to continue. They have a chance of surviving primary, and a slightly higher chance of surviving a GE.
Click to expand...

No real arguments here. I do think the Trump loyalists would reward loyalty, but we see that number dwindling.



BTW, I claim Tweetgate.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Cagey said:
Presidential pardon or not, Trump isn't escaping Schneiderman.
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So it's unclear if a sitting POTUS can be arrested or tried, but we do know that someone can't be pardoned for a state offense.

What happens if Trump is guilty of a state offense? Wait until he leaves office and then arrest him?
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
Fenderputty said:
So it's unclear if a sitting POTUS can be arrested or tried, but we do know that someone can't be pardoned for a state offense.

What happens if Trump is guilty of a state offense? Wait until he leaves office and then arrest him?
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That's my take on it. Only thing that might matter is limitation statutes.
 
P

PepsimanVsJoe

Member
The executive office has become a prison cell for Trump. Depending on how things shake out, he could very well find himself inside a real one.

Gotta love it.
 
G

GameAddict411

Member
SuperEpicMan said:
Thanks for this. With all that said, I think Mueller will eventually get fired. Trump has shown time and again that he is comfortable making damnable decisions, if it is in his interest.
Click to expand...

I hope he does. The evidence of obstruction of justice can't be debated any longer if that were to happen.
 
S

Shoeless

Member
GameAddict411 said:
I hope he does. The evidence of obstruction of justice can't be debated any longer if that were to happen.
Click to expand...

It definitely can't. However, that doesn't mean the Republicans won't try. They'll simply try to frame it as "There's two kinds illegal. There's Republican illegal, which we should all overlook, and there's Democrat illegal, which should be charged with treason. This falls under the former."
 
G

Grym

Member
Who is Rosenstein's subordinate/successor?

With Mueller looking into obstruction of justice related to Comey's firing, isn't it now very likely that Rosenstein is going to need to recuse himself as well. He wrote/signed the memo that gave a recommendation to fire him. So if he recuses...is the next in line in charge of whether Mueller's job stays or goes?
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
That info is attempting to play to their base, implying that Mueller is angry and looking for revenge.

It will have limited use in they manner they intend. Rather, it really undermines Newt's assertion that he isn't fit for the role.
 
X

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
Grym said:
Who is Rosenstein's subordinate/successor?

With Mueller looking into obstruction of justice related to Comey's firing, isn't it now very likely that Rosenstein is going to need to recuse himself as well. He wrote/signed the memo that gave a recommendation to fire him. So if he recuses...is the next in line in charge of whether Mueller's job stays or goes?
Click to expand...
Rachel Brand, the Associate AG, is next after him. It's highly likely Rosenstein will recuse himself at some point, yes.

This WaPo article covers it all very well: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...ial-counsel-if-he-were-foolish-enough-to-try/
 
T

Tovarisc

Member
Schiff wants obstruction to be part of House investigation

Special counsel Robert Mueller is reportedly investigating President Donald Trump for obstruction of justice, and the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee also wants to add that to its investigation.

"I can say that I certainly think if there's an effort to interfere or impede the investigation at all, or obstruct it, that's something we need to get to the bottom of," Rep. Adam Schiff of California told CNN's Jake Tapper on "The Lead" on Thursday.
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It's "imperative to make sure no one is interfering with the FBI investigation," Schiff continued. "We need to make sure that Bob Mueller has all the resources he needs and that no one is interfering in that investigation in any way. So, right now, in the House, I would think the House judiciary committee ought to have an interest in the obstruction issue, as well."
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Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/15/p...-trump-cnntv1033PMVODtopPhoto&linkId=38753475
 
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