Support NeoGAF

[Tal Shiar Agent]

I'm not up on my galactic/universal science, but has this been proven? I assumed it was just statistically likely.

Fermi Paradox.


Our sample size is precisely one, but based on the history of our planet and our species life has just a good of a chance to be wiped out as successfully advance to a point where their existence extends beyond their own world.

 

[Unai]

I'm not up on my galactic/universal science, but has this been proven? I assumed it was just statistically likely.

There's no proof of even low level civilizations or even little animals, let alone high advanced civilizations. The math implies a high probability, but we don't know for sure.

 

[jerry113]

Wait, so it can be aliens? Boys, we're in for a ride

It's almost always some natural phenomenon that hasn't been documented yet.

I like to think that it's a steadily replicating sentient cloud of nanobots.

 

[QuantumZebra]

I'm not up on my galactic/universal science, but has this been proven? I assumed it was just statistically likely.

Fermi/Type I-III civilization discussion comes out of this.

Essentially - we may be the first civilization to make it as far as we have, but that is statistically unlikely. And even if we were the first, that in itself implies that it is possible, and the fucking staggering number of stars (something like 100 billion trillion in the universe) out there means that it is much more likely that other civilizations have already, or will arise.

The whole "why haven't we contacted anyone yet?" thing is something I like to answer with this analogy:

Drop 10 people on Africa (if it was void of human life) - would you expect them to find each other? Probably not. They'd likely die, or just flat out never find each other.

Now extrapolate that by a massive amount - you get the same result.

Most "advanced civs" probably haven't found each other yet, or have been wiped out.

 

[HTupolev]

I like to think that it's a steadily replicating sentient cloud of nanobots.

It's a forest of space kelp.

 

[Forerunner]

This is just the beginning! There is so much shit out there we don't know about. It's really crazy to think about.

 

[Extollere]

Dyson spheres/swarms/arrays are the most logical way to harvest incredibly massive amounts of energy, AFAIK.

Swarms and arrays I have no problem envisioning (but I don't believe those are called Dyson Spheres unless I'm wrong). It's the idea of a continuous ring-like structure large enough to dim light from the sun to other observers. But eh... I dunno, I could be looking at this all wrong.

 

[LoveCake]

I hope they come and take me away.

 

[HStallion]

Swarms and arrays I have no problem envisioning (but I don't believe those are called Dyson Spheres unless I'm wrong). It's the idea of a continuous ring-like structure large enough to dim light from the sun to other observers.

Well I guess if the swarm was dense enough they could start dimming the light. Like a dust cloud obscuring the sun kind of thing.

 

[maquiladora]

Going by averages there should be multiple high level civilizations within our GALAXY not to mention the Universe. And yet, again the galaxy is silent (so far).

The galaxy is "silent" in the same way that Natalie Portman doesn't exist because I looked in my bathroom for 3 seconds and she wasn't in there.

The failure so far to find a signal is hardly evidence that none is to be found. All searches to date have been limited in one respect or another. These include limits on sensitivity, frequency coverage, types of signals the equipment could detect, and the number of stars or the directions in the sky observed. For example, while there are hundreds of billions of stars in our galaxy, only a few thousand have been scrutinized with high sensitivity and for those, only over a small fraction of the available frequency range

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

Swarms and arrays I have no problem envisioning (but I don't believe those are called Dyson Spheres unless I'm wrong). It's the idea of a continuous ring-like structure large enough to dim light from the sun to other observers.

Its literally just Dyson Swarms, Dyson Rings, Dyson Arrays, Dyson Spheres.

 

[Slayer-33]

Looove when this thread gets bumped. Delicious update!

 

[PantherLotus]

to be clear the suggestion that higher order civilizations are exceedingly rare (explained via The Great Filter sub-theory) is only one explanation of the Fermi Paradox. It's a GOOD explanation!

But not the only one. See 'Explanation Group 2' here: http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

Most people don't read through to that part and stop at the great filter theory. There are a number of plausible reasons we aren't seeing/hearing from the many millions of potential higher order civilizations that don't include 'there are none.'

 

[HStallion]

to be clear the suggestion that higher order civilizations are exceedingly rare (explained via The Great Filter sub-theory) is only one explanation of the Fermi Paradox. It's a GOOD explanation!

But not the only one. See 'Explanation Group 2' here: http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

Most people don't read through to that part and stop at the great filter theory. There are a number of plausible reasons we aren't seeing/hearing from the many millions of potential higher order civilizations that don't include 'there are none.'

I like the idea that a species would just create a virtual reality so good and made exactly for them that they have no reason to explore the stars or even do anything in the "real" world because they basically live in a dream.

 

[PantherLotus]

I like the idea that a species would just create a virtual reality so good and made exactly for them that they have no reason to explore the stars or even do anything in the "real" world because they basically live in a dream.

Same, and in this often scary humans-with-nukes reality it makes sense to us. Personally I subscribe to this one:

Possibility 6) There’s plenty of activity and noise out there, but our technology is too primitive and we’re listening for the wrong things.

which kinda pairs up nicely with the Zoo hypothesis (that we're being observed).

 

[gutshot]

The galaxy is "silent" in the same way that Natalie Portman doesn't exist because I looked in my bathroom for 3 seconds and she wasn't in there.

Did you check fistfullofmetal's bathroom?

 

[jerry113]

Did you check fistfullofmetal's bathroom?

is that the guy who had a folder of terabytes' worth of natalie portman pics?

legendary thread

edit: lol found it http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=346727

 

[QuantumZebra]

Swarms and arrays I have no problem envisioning (but I don't believe those are called Dyson Spheres unless I'm wrong). It's the idea of a continuous ring-like structure large enough to dim light from the sun to other observers. But eh... I dunno, I could be looking at this all wrong.

PantherLotus posted this pic (I cant remember username) but this to me seems like it is easily the most plausible structure for the "artificial" explanation:

The galaxy is "silent" in the same way that Natalie Portman doesn't exist because I looked in my bathroom for 3 seconds and she wasn't in there.

I like this ^

 

[QuantumZebra]

Same, and in this often scary humans-with-nukes reality it makes sense to us. Personally I subscribe to this one:



which kinda pairs up nicely with the Zoo hypothesis (that we're being observed).

Holy hell the 5th one:

Possibility 5) There’s only one instance of higher-intelligent life—a “superpredator” civilization (like humans are here on Earth)—that is far more advanced than everyone else and keeps it that way by exterminating any intelligent civilization once they get past a certain level. This would suck. The way it might work is that it’s an inefficient use of resources to exterminate all emerging intelligences, maybe because most die out on their own. But past a certain point, the super beings make their move—because to them, an emerging intelligent species becomes like a virus as it starts to grow and spread. This theory suggests that whoever was the first in the galaxy to reach intelligence won, and now no one else has a chance. This would explain the lack of activity out there because it would keep the number of super-intelligent civilizations to just one.

Is literally the plot of Mass Effect.

The idea that we're all a simulation really freaks me the fuck out, too.

 

[N.Domixis]

All this bullshit about a very advanced race not caring is dumb. If we found a planet with cavemen or even worms we would go crazy. I'm sure if they got that far technologically they would like to see examples of life other than their own.

 

[gun_haver]

are there aliens yet, folks? what's going on? i'm not a science guy.

 

[Herne]

I freaking love this thread. I think it's highly likely to be some natural phenomena we just haven't discovered or realised yet, but whether it's artificial or natural, it's still super exciting.

Yea - they 99% likely dont give a shit about us, and probably know we are here (the pyramids and great wall are older than 1500 yrs and are visible from space).

This is a photograph of the area where the Great Wall stands. Point it out for me? You can't, because you have to be in an extremely low orbit to be able to see it. This picture was taken from the ISS, which races around the Earth in LEO, or Low Earth Orbit. It's closest point, it's perigee, is 409 kilometres.

However, the pyramids are quite visible from a certain distance and there are other visible indications of life on the planet.

 

[LookAtMeGo]

Maybe these are the aliens abducting everyone.

 

[Walter White Walker]

Another theory about why we haven't found aliens is that it's because we're premature (cue dick joke):

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-havent-we-found-alien-life/

Researchers from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics have come up with what they see as the best explanation for why we have yet to find alien life that equals our own. They say it's because, compared to the rest of the universe, Earthly life is relatively premature.

Our 4.5 billion-year-old planet is relatively young, floating in a universe that is about 13.8 billion years old. The research team, whose study will be published in the Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, believes that life on Earth formed significantly earlier than comparable life would normally emerge on other planets.
"If you ask, 'When is life most likely to emerge?' you might naively say, 'Now,'" lead author Avi Loeb said in a press release. "But we find that the chance of life grows much higher in the distant future."

 

[anonymous_abc]

Late to subscribe, super cool though!

 

[PantherLotus]

Another theory about why we haven't found aliens is that it's because we're premature (cue dick joke):

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-havent-we-found-alien-life/

The key here being that at 4.5B years old, Earth is something of a 2nd or 3rd-generation planet -- the elements and chemistry that make up this planet were born in the stars that had time to have an entire lifecycle (3-10B years?) before exploding and forming the heavier elements. The universe is 14B years old.

Shorter: I don't buy it.

 

[Walter White Walker]

The key here being that at 4.5B years old, Earth is something of a 2nd or 3rd-generation planet -- the elements and chemistry that make up this planet were born in the stars that had time to have an entire lifecycle (3-10B years?) before exploding and forming the heavier elements.

Shorter: I don't buy it.

That's true but than the first planets wouldn't of had any of the heavier elements that I presume life needs to be created/survive so maybe it's this generation that's the first to have enough of those necessary things.

 

[LookAtMeGo]

The key here being that at 4.5B years old, Earth is something of a 2nd or 3rd-generation planet -- the elements and chemistry that make up this planet were born in the stars that had time to have an entire lifecycle (3-10B years?) before exploding and forming the heavier elements. The universe is 14B years old.

Shorter: I don't buy it.

3-10 billion years is quite a gap in time though. Like almost half of the time the universe has supposedly existed.

 

[HTupolev]

The key here being that at 4.5B years old, Earth is something of a 2nd or 3rd-generation planet -- the elements and chemistry that make up this planet were born in the stars that had time to have an entire lifecycle (3-10B years?) before exploding and forming the heavier elements. The universe is 14B years old.

Shorter: I don't buy it.

???

The first part of your post reads like support for the hypothesis.

 

[PantherLotus]

3-10 billion years is quite a gap in time though. Like almost half of the time the universe has supposedly existed.

Not sure what you mean by supposedly, but we know the known universe (back to the big bang) is 14B years. We know our planet is 4.5B years old. Some stars burn out faster (3B years) than others (10B).

See:
13.7B years ago: Big Bang
13.5B years ago: first stars form <--

(3-10B years ago): first stars explode and form heavier elements
(3-10B years ago): remnants of exploded stars reform into new stars and planets

[repeat 2-3x]*

4.5B years ago: Earth is formed

*this is the part I don't quite understand and we don't really know. We don't know what generation exactly our star is, whether it's 2nd or 3rd or what.

The point of the article is that over 10 trillion years, most life will form around small-mass stars that have 1T+ lifespans, so we must be the exception since neither of those are true for us. I'm saying I don't buy it because

???

The first part of your post reads like support for the hypothesis.

wait, it makes sense after I type it out. Eh. See!

 

[Askherserenity]

I wish this thread would be active always. Love reading these posts. Don't have much to add except...this is all great and I hope it really ends up being an artificial structure blocking the start for some reason.

 

[Teknoman]

Well, that's pretty much where we're at.

I don't think its depressing personally... because HOLY FUCK YALL THIS IS NUTS.

Buuut I could see how its depressing that we wont have a "Mass Effect" or "Star Trek" deal going on anytime soon.

*However*

If we find a way to create a Quantum/Warp Drive... (Connecting points A and B instead of traveling from A to B)... this could all turn into a reality very quickly.

Honestly i'd just be glad to know that were werent alone in the grand scheme of things.

 

[LookAtMeGo]

Not sure what you mean by supposedly,

I said supposedly because the Universe can be as young as 11 billion years old but not younger and can possibly be older than 14 billion.

 

[eot]

No known or proposed stellar phenomena can fully explain all aspects of the observed light curve.

This is not a strange thing within science, it's why you develop new theories; to explain more than you could in the past.
Just because the thing we can't explain is far away doesn't mean aliens are causing it.

 

[superdeluxe]

Its looking more and more like we're seeing something of this nature:

If I'm wrong feel free to point out

Whats that?

 

[PantherLotus]

This is not a strange thing within science, it's why you develop new theories; to explain more than you could in the past.
Just because the thing we can't explain is far away doesn't mean aliens are causing it.

That is literally the entire point of this 31-page thread. That possible explanations include theoretical aliens building megastructures and that explanation remains the best current theory doesn't mean there isn't scientific weight behind it. Obviously the key is figuring out how to test that theory.

 

[QuantumZebra]

Honestly i'd just be glad to know that were werent alone in the grand scheme of things.

Well all other evidence aside, you can rest easy, cause the math is heavily on the aliens are real side.

 

[Chittagong]

more evidence in the "star's fucking weird" column:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1608.01316

Amazing. But can't we simulate alternatives for objects that would produce this light pattern?

 

[Crisco]

Is there some article giving a layman's explanation of the findings in that recent paper? Like "Astronomy for Dummies" level?

Thanks a lot you elitist science fucks, I had to answer my own question!!!

http://www.popsci.com/something-made-alien-megastructure-star-dim-rapidly-over-course-4-years

 

[EdibleExplosives]

Love, love, love this thread. This is so exciting.

Thanks to everyone who has explained it in simple terms for people like me who don't have a lot of knowledge about the subject.

 

[RankoSD]

TED talk from few months ago, for those who want a better explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gypAjPp6eps

 

[Ether_Snake]

I think to figure out the possibility that this is a dyson sphere, we would need to think about what would be the smartest way to build a solar-energy-absorbing device to begin with. Then you can build a model and see if it replicates the dimming effect. Right now I would assume that the logical way to do it would be to start from a central point and gradually expand it, so I don't think it would justify the dimming recorded.

 

[qcf x2]

I mean, if they're so advanced we are probably not the first living beings they have seen. I doubt any civilization this advanced would care about us.

Doesn't matter if we're super advanced, it matters if we're unique.

Any spacefaring race probably doesn't need to go around blowing shit up and taking over planets.

Nature is nature. Some species are going to be brutal, if you accept the likelihood of life elsewhere then you accept that as well.

If an alien civilization is building a Dyson sphere or swarm around what's presumably it's home star, wouldn't that imply that either this species is uninterested in interstellar travel, incapable of interstellar travel, or is possibly using the energy of a star to facilitate interstellar travel?


Though honestly unless the world they evolved on has similar gravity to Earth, a similar temperature, a simular chemical makeup, and a similar water to land ratio and that our form is the most efficient for high intelligence the chances are these aliens are an incomprehensible form with incomprehensible motivations for doing what they do.


It would be interesting if any alien life we find in the vicinity of our system is similar to us. Might prove the panspermia theory.

Yeah, I think that too. I would sorta expect advanced aliens to be more like the ones from Contact or Starmaker than vikings or whatever. I always liked that about Contact and Starmaker.

If we're going full scifi I would be suspicious of whether viruses were alien in origin. Seems like a fantastic thing to engineer to greatly reduce the odds of intelligent competition.

Because not everyone is born a Einstein and those who are are limited to the technology of their time.

Every species needs to start somewhere. Scary thought. Let's say this is a Dyson Sphere and let's say this is old technology for this alien species meaning having this thing circle their home star now provides minimal benefits and they don't even up keep it anymore.

I mean that's me blowing alot of smoke out my ass but I don't think any species are born with hardcore advance tech. It takes time and growth to get to the point you are describing and thinking of.

But you're assuming they're on the same technological graph/arc/tree that we are.

 

[QuantumZebra]

That is literally the entire point of this 31-page thread. That possible explanations include theoretical aliens building megastructures and that explanation remains the best current theory doesn't mean there isn't scientific weight behind it. Obviously the key is figuring out how to test that theory.

Precisely.

When well regarded astronomers from CalTech and other research centers around the world all go .. "Well... we have no idea what this is... and its massive... and it doesn't match any known cosmic occurrences." ... that of all times is when it wouldn't be silly or tin-foil-hatting it up.

If science can't explain something then that is where conjecture and theory comes in.

Nature is nature. Some species are going to be brutal, if you accept the likelihood of life elsewhere then you accept that as well.

A) Violent crime rates decrease in communities as they become more educated and prosperous

B) A spacefaring race is without a doubt both those things in spades

C) There would be no compulsion for them to attack (there are plenty of Earth-like planets if they really wanted a new place to crash)

 

[HStallion]

A) Violent crime rates decrease in communities as they become more educated and prosperous

B) A spacefaring race is without a doubt both those things in spades

C) There would be no compulsion for them to attack (there are plenty of Earth-like planets if they really wanted a new place to crash)

There are also a ton of variables we can never truly account for such as the fact that this could be a species of rock's that finds all organic based life blasphemous. There is a cool bit in Jack McDevitt's Engine's of the Gods/Priscilla Hutchins scifi novel series about a planet that humanity is trying to save that has one of the only living intelligent alien species. However not only do they have something like the Prime Directive that keeps them from directly interfering but to the aliens themselves we humanity looked just like their version of Satan/devils so when the characters of the story do attempt to make contact with the alien creatures to help them avert an extinction level event they find it incredibly hard because these creatures are literally seeing their mythological Satan.

Now imagine its the opposite and there is a species of religious space zealots that comes across us and we look like their Satan. Yeah we are screwed.

That or they are like the Predators and we look really fun to hunt.

Or they are a species so damn alien we could never understand one another, maybe they don't even recognize as intelligent creatures at all but more like ants.

 

[EloquentM]

In reference to the post asking "if they have the tech to create a star why would the need a Dyson type structure". It could be the resources needed or the risk involved in making an artificial star is greater than what is needed to build a Dyson structure.

 

[HStallion]

In reference to the post asking "if they have the tech to create a star why would the need a Dyson type structure". It could be the resources needed or the risk involved in making an artificial star is greater than what is needed to build a Dyson structure.

Also if they have the tech to make stars you're basically god status at that point. Their tech would be so far advanced to be quite literally be magic to any other species to meet them.

 

[QuantumZebra]

There are also a ton of variables we can never truly account for such as the fact that this could be a species of rock's that finds all organic based life blasphemous. There is a cool bit in Jack McDevitt's Engine's of the Gods/Priscilla Hutchins scifi novel series about a planet that humanity is trying to save that has one of the only living intelligent alien species. However not only do they have something like the Prime Directive that keeps them from directly interfering but to the aliens themselves we humanity looked just like their version of Satan/devils so when the characters of the story do attempt to make contact with the alien creatures to help them avert an extinction level event they find it incredibly hard because these creatures are literally seeing their mythological Satan.

Now imagine its the opposite and there is a species of religious space zealots that comes across us and we look like their Satan. Yeah we are screwed.

That or they are like the Predators and we look really fun to hunt.

Or they are a species so damn alien we could never understand one another, maybe they don't even recognize as intelligent creatures at all but more like ants.

This is far more likely and has its own theory - the "Zoo" theory... that aliens know about us but don't give a damn because we're primitive - they may watch for fun and prank us behind the scenes, but they won't interact.

 

[j0hnnix]

 

[N.Domixis]

The scariest thing for us would be finding an earth like planet of similar age with absolutely no life. Would kill our hope for ever. But we would colonize it and spread life.(send an unmanned ship with life and crash it into the ocean)