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[calistan]

Landing an unmanned Starship on Mars can plausibly be done in < 5 years. After that milestone sending an astronaut there will mostly come down to risk tolerance. Will probably take a while.

They still need to do refueling in orbit. I read that it was one of the most difficult challenges, and filling the tank of a single orbiting Starship for the Artemis lunar mission could require up to 20 refueling missions.

Given their speed of development they may well nail it after a few quickfire failures. Twenty launches, though - no wonder they need it to be reliable and super quick to turn around.